Obseruation for TOGA-COARE and Relevant Research

ＯＢＳＥＲＶＡＴＩＯＮＦＯＲＴＯＧＡ－ＣＯＡＲＥＡＮＤＲＥＬＥＶＡＮＴＲＥＳＥＡＲＣＨＬｉＪｉ（李骥），ＬｕＥｒ（陆尔）ａｎｄＤｉｎｇＹｉｈｕｉ（丁一汇）ＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＣｌｉｍａｔｉｃＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＩ．ＲＥＰＯＲＴＯＮＴＯＧＡＯＢＳＥＲＶＡＴＩ...     

Research on Early-Warning and Control Techniques for Agricultural and Forest Pests and Diseases and Agrometeorological Disasters

After the open bidding and specialist appraisal, the project is undertaken jointly by the Institute of Plant Protection of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, the Institute of Plant Protection of the Sichuan Province Academy of Agricultural Science, the Chinese Agricultural University, the Research Institute of Forest Protection of the Forestry Academy of China, the Chinese Forest University, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and the Research Institute of Agrometeorology of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science. The project (Project No: 2001BA509B, including 15 subprojects), is organized     

Climatic Resources and Disaster Database for Agriculture and Ecology In West China

Theworking time of the project is from 2001 to 2002. The main advancements obtained in 2001 are as follows.Project allocation: The PRC Ministry of Science and Technology approved the project on 15 February 2001. The project allocation meeting was convened in Beijing from 20 to 23 March 2001. CAMS and 11 provincial meteorological bureaus in West China undertake jointly the project.     

Spectral and Anisotropic Corrections for GMS Satellite Data

using me raaiauve iransier simulation, me sampling study about me specital and amsouopic conections for GMS satellite data is carried out. The conversion factor and the anisotropic reflectance factor in inversion process of broadband radiation fluxes have been obtained for various underlying surface scenes in clear sky and for the case of overcast sky. The results demonstrate that the consideration of spectral and anisotropic corrections is essential for the earth radiation budget research using satellite data. The mean conversion factors for GMS are between 2.54 and 5.30. The values of the conversion factor are different for various observation angles, especially in cases of ocean, vegetation cover and wet soil surface. The error of retrieving broadband radiance without considering the difference of observation geometry is about 5.5%-15% for ocean, 4.5%-10% for various land surfaces. The calculated anisotropic factors for ocean and cloud scenes are in good agreement with those estimated from Nimbus-7.     

Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling...     

An Improved Method for Doppler Wind and Thermo dynamic Retrievals

A variational method is developed to retrieve winds in the first step and then thermodynamic fields in the second step from Doppler radar observations. In the first step, wind fields are retrieved at two time levels: the beginning and ending times of the data assimilation period, simultaneously from two successive volume scans by     

Who and what are carbon markets for? Politics and the development of climate policy

Why have carbon markets been rapidly adopted as policy solutions to climate change in the last decade? Perhaps surprisingly, this question has attracted virtually no attention in the large literature on such markets. The standard arguments given for why carbon markets are good ways to respond to climate change do not explain why such markets have flourished as governance mechanisms in relation to climate. Carbon markets have spread and become taken-for-granted because of the potential they give to certain powerful actors (financiers, specifically) to create new cycles of investment, profits and growth. As a consequence, they make possible a political coalition combining financiers with environmentalists. This coalition has considerable potential to legitimize substantial cuts in carbon emissions in the face of continued opposition from other interests. It is the combination of these two elements – the promotion of specific growth sectors and the construction of a political coalition – that constitutes the principal political virtue of carbon markets. In order to demonstrate this claim, the history of emissions trading is traced and the implication of this analysis is explored for the further building of climate governance centred on carbon markets.     

Comparison of Satellite and Ship Observations for Total Cloud Amount

The data series of monthly clouldiness over global ocean from COADS was compared with that of from satellite Nimbus-7 during April 1979 to March 1985. The correspondence between them is good. Both the two methods of observation can provide useful information of the distribution of cloudiness and the two data sets can be mutually complementary.     

Times for (Un)sustainability? Challenges and opportunities for developing behaviour change policy. A case-study of consumers at home and away

This paper examines the assertion that individuals with seemingly high levels of commitment to the environment at home may also be those engaged in less sustainable leisure and tourism behaviours, including a high dependency on air travel. This potential difference in environmental commitments between different consumption settings is placed within the context of recent policy developments that have seen the rise of segmentation as a commonly applied technique used to understand and encourage pro-environmental behaviours through the notion of ‘sustainable lifestyles’ and social marketing campaigns. Using data derived from a questionnaire of consumers in the UK, three distinctive, empirically-defined ‘lifestyle’ groups are identified, based on the respondents’ environmental behaviours. Significant differences emerged in reported environmental commitments according to their consumption setting. Those with higher levels of commitment in and around the home also tended to be those who flew furthest and most frequently, whilst those with moderate-to-high commitments ‘at home’ often failed to transfer these activities to their holiday environments. The paper concludes by arguing that both academics and policy-makers need to address the role of different consumption settings in which behaviours are undertaken and the ways in which these relate to underlying social practices within these settings.     

Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the “climate trap”

Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are dominant uncertain properties of the global climate system. Their estimates based on the inverse approach are interdependent as historical temperature records constrain possible combinations. Nevertheless, many literature projections of future climate are based on the probability density of climate sensitivity and an independent aerosol forcing without considering the interdependency of such estimates. Here we investigate how large such parameter interdependency affects the range of future warming in two distinct settings: one following the A1B emission scenario till the year 2100 and the other assuming a shutdown of all greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in the year 2020. We demonstrate that the range of projected warming decreases in the former case, but considerably broadens in the latter case, if the correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing is taken into account. Our conceptual study suggests that, unless the interdependency between the climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing estimates is properly considered, one could underestimate a risk involving the “climate trap”, an unpalatable situation with a high climate sensitivity in which a very drastic mitigation may counter-intuitively accelerate the warming by unmasking the hidden warming due to aerosols.     

Do we prioritize floodplains for development and farming? Mapping global dependence and exposure to inundation

Global wetlands and floodplains offer benefits and perils alike for human society. For example, humans rely on natural flood cycles for fisheries and agriculture, yet flooding also caused nearly one trillion USD in damage in the past 30 years and impacts millions of people every year. Looking forward, altered flow regimes or increased drought conditions are expected to affect the natural inundation cycle and its ecosystem services. The current and potential future impacts of flooding and drying events warrant increasing efforts to quantify our dependence and exposure within flooded areas, since any change from current inundation patterns is expected to have consequences for those who rely on regular flood occurrences. This paper provides a baseline global assessment of the dependence and exposure of human populations, urban areas, roads, and agriculture on current inundation patterns. The analysis uses a spatially explicit inundation map at ∼500 m resolution (GIEMS-D15) derived from satellite remote sensing to represent flooding extents and overlays it with current population and land use maps. We find that 35% of the analyzed population, or 2.0 billion people, live inside areas that are prone to inland flooding, which comprise only 12% of the land surface area (excluding marine coastal areas), confirming that population densities within inundation zones are about three-times above global average. Likewise, 35% of urban areas potentially experience regular, seasonal, or infrequent flooding. Agriculture shows a similar pattern with 24% of the world’s cropland in areas of recurring inundation. Finally, we estimate that 18% of the global road network is exposed to inundation during high water periods. These global estimates demonstrate a preferential tendency of human populations, infrastructure, and agriculture to be co-located within inundation areas, making related anthropogenic activities highly susceptible to future changes in flood regimes. The results are intended to offer a suite of first-order estimates as partial input to more holistic risk and vulnerability assessments and to ultimately improve environmental planning and policy at large scales.     

Convergence or divergence? Status and prospects for US climate strategy

The objective of this paper is to assess recent developments and prospects for future changes in United States (US) climate strategy. In doing so, the paper explores some of the key factors that have shaped strategies and policies to date, distinguishing between factors related to institutional and governance structures, linkages between science and policy, energy technology and the role of interest groups. Against this background, the paper attempts to explore future development paths for US climate policy. More specifically, the paper assesses opportunities for policy changes compared to the preferences of the current administration, and the prospects for future linkages between US and international climate change strategies. In brief, the paper argues that substantial changes are unlikely to take place in the near to medium term, leaving open, however, the possibility of wide-ranging changes in domestic politics or major incidents that could facilitate a shift in the perceived need for near-term action.     

Conditions for Producing and Maintaining Plasma Ball Lightning in the Atmosphere

Based on the results of plasma experiments and research work done by Dawson and Jones, Trubnikov, Endean, and other researchers, three requirements for producing and maintaining plasma ball lightning have been found: 1) rotation of plasma, 2) the density of charged particles nc > 3.15 × 10-10ω2,3) a stable confinement of plasma. In this model, the energy density of ball lightning ranged from 10-2 J / cm3 to 104 J/ cm3, the formation, shape, stability, energy, maintaining processes and other properties of ball lightning were explained reasonably.     

Pacific and Atlantic oceanic anomalies and their interaction with rainfall and fire in Bolivian biomes for the period 1992–2012

Bolivia is located at the crossroad of the major climatic influences of Northern and Southern-South America, which turns this country into a natural laboratory to investigate the interactions between ocean-climate and fire variability. We chose two oceanic indices: MEI (multivariate ENSO Index) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) to select the three most representative years for four oceanic conditions: El Niño, La Niña, AMO, and standard years (understood as years with little ocean influences), for the period 1992–2012. We investigated how i) rainfall (dry vs wet seasons) and ii) fire responded in five Bolivian biomes (Tropical Moist Forests, Tropical Dry Forests, Tropical Grasslands, Tropical Montane, and Seasonally Flooded ecosystems) under these oceanic conditions. Bolivia showed a strong rainfall increase in El Niño years in both seasons (wet/dry), while AMO showed the strongest droughts in both seasons. La Niña showed a bipolar response with rainfall increases in the wet season and a very marked rainfall decrease in the dry season. Drought significantly increased fire numbers in AMO years, being the most significant fire condition and suggesting a larger fire influence of the Atlantic than the Pacific at the national level. Surprisingly, the amount of fire was very large under normal years (STD) and similar to fire levels under La Niña, suggesting generalized fire conditions in the country, except for El Niño years that bring rainfall excess and little fire. The most fire-affected biomes were the seasonally flooded and dry forests, followed by the grassland/savannah biome. Montane areas showed the least fire, but satellite fire omission is well known in the Andean region.     

Trends in water demand and water availability for power plants—scenario analyses for the German capital Berlin

The availability of electric power is an important prerequisite for the development or maintenance of high living standards. Global change, including socio-economic change and climate change, is a challenge for those who have to deal with the long-term management of thermoelectric power plants. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short and medium term. In the long term, the water demand will change as old units are retired and new generating units are built. The present paper analyses the effects of global change and options for adapting to water shortages for power plants in the German capital Berlin in the short and long term. The interconnection between power plants, i.e. water demand, and water resources management, i.e. water availability, is described. Using different models, scenarios of socio-economic and climate change are analysed. One finding is that by changing the cooling system of power plants from a once-through system to a closed-circuit cooling system the vulnerability of power plants can be reduced considerably. Such modified cooling systems also are much more robust with respect to the effects of climate change and declining streamflows due to human activities in the basin under study. Notwithstanding the possible adaptations analysed for power plants in Berlin, increased economic costs are expected due to declining streamflows and higher water temperatures.     

China–Sri Lanka Joint Center for Education and Research for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

中国-斯里兰卡联合科教中心成立于2015年8月,为中斯两国间科教合作搭建平台,并在南亚季风爆发核心区域建立海洋大气相关实地观测系统。中心承担每年一度的印度洋科学考察航次,在赤道和北印度洋等海域布设潜标和临时观测站,研究印度洋环流动力构成和相关海洋动力特征。并在斯里兰卡布设了多种探测季风和近岸海洋观测仪器,为斯里兰卡提供了多次度和多分辨率的"斯里兰卡周边区域海气数值预报系统"。中-斯中心在2015年和2016年连续举办两届中-斯联合季风气候和海洋环境研讨会,会议促进了两国间的海洋大气科学研究的交流。在联合硕士计划备忘录的签订后,2015年15名硕士研究生新生被中国科学院大学录取。     

The delineation of rain areas from visible and IR satellite data for GATE and mid‐latitudes

Abstract

Two‐dimensional pattern matching has been used to delineate raining areas of clouds from GATE and Montreal GOES visible and IR satellite data, with radar as ground truth. For the cases examined, the cloud cover was of the order of 4 times larger than the rain area, requiring skill to separate out low‐thick or high‐thin non‐precipitating clouds from cumulus systems, which is difficult using a single threshold. The more flexible approach described here has allowed useful rain maps to be generated for all the types of weather systems examined. The optimum boundary separating raining from non‐raining areas is relatively insensitive to diurnal and day‐to‐day variations, but is different for the tropical Atlantic and for Montreal.     

Vulnerability and resilience: Coalescing or paralleling approaches for sustainability science?

Vulnerability and resilience constitute different but overlapping research themes embraced by sustainability science. As practiced within this science, the two research themes appear to coalesce around one of the foundational pivots of sustainability, the coupled human–environment system. They differ in regard to their attention to two other pivots, environmental services and the tradeoffs of these services with human outcomes. In this essay I briefly review the emergence of sustainability science and the three foundational pivots relevant to vulnerability and resilience. I outline the distinctions and similarities between the two research themes foremost as practiced within sustainability science and especially in regard to the attention given to the three pivots. I conclude with the observation that improvement in the capacity of vulnerability and resilience research to inform sustainability science may hinge on their linkages in addressing tradeoffs.