甘肃省小麦干旱灾害风险评估及区划研究

利用1980—2016年甘肃省84个县(区)的小麦产量资料,分析平均减产率、减产率概率系数、减产率变异系数构建的综合干旱灾害风险指数,根据综合干旱灾害风险指数来评估甘肃省各市小麦单产干旱灾害风险。结果表明:河西地区干旱发生频率高,属于灌溉农业,变异系数较大,其东部地区平均减产率高,风险概率大,属于高等风险区,河西地区的西部和中部分别属于低等和中等风险区;陇中地区干旱发生频率高,属于雨养农业,变异系数小,而平均减产率和风险概率较高,大部分属于中等风险区;陇东地区干旱发生频率较低,变异系数低,平均减产率和风险概率较高,属于中等风险区;陇南和甘南地区干旱发生频率较高,平均减产率和风险概率均较低,属于低等风险区。甘肃省小麦风险区划可为风险预算及防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

作物低温冷害指标及风险评估研究进展

介绍了我国现有的作物低温冷害指标,并对比分析了其优缺点,同时介绍了国内外有关低温冷害风险评估研究进展.国外有关作物低温冷害方面的研究,主要集中在冷害机理研究方面,而在冷害指标、冷害监测预测和风险评估等方面的研究较少.国内主要从低温冷害出现的风险概率、温度变异系数出发进行了风险评估,并建立了综合风险指数,但结合产量灾损方面的风险评估还未开展.     

Explaining risk perception of microplastics: Results from a representative survey in Germany

Plastic pollution through small particles, so-called microplastics, is acknowledged as an environmental problem of global dimension by both politicians, and the public. An increasing number of environmental studies investigate the exposure and effects of microplastics. Although there are many open questions, current scientific evidence does not confirm a high risk for the environment. At the same time, the issue receives great public attention, which in turn motivates various political and policy actions. So far, little research has examined the underlying social dimensions, i.e., the factors explaining individual risk perception of microplastics. This paper studies the perception of risks associated with microplastics concerning the environment and human health using data from a representative online survey conducted in Germany (n = 1027). We particularly examine the role of socio-demographics, individual awareness, knowledge factors, and the media’s influence on risk perception. Our results show that a majority of the respondents rates the risks through microplastics very high for both the environment and human health. Regression analyses demonstrate that environmental awareness and knowledge of media narratives are the strongest predictors for this risk perception. Our study illustrates the incongruence between scientific knowledge, media framing, and the public opinion concerning the risk posed by microplastics.     

基于蒙特卡罗方法的广州港航行风险评估

为了解不同等级能见度下的广州港航行风险特征,将不同能见度下定性的广州港航行风险定量化,以期增强广州港航行事故风险控制能力,提高广州港资源利用率.通过分析不同能见度下广州港船舶出现事故的频率以及造成后果的严重性,对二者进行概率统计后,分别对3种等级能见度下的事故数据进行蒙特卡罗仿真,有效增加了广州港航行事故的数据样本,得...     

新疆北部雪灾气候因子的风险分析试验——以阿勒泰为例

用新疆北部阿勒泰站1954—2010年资料,分析致灾大雪5个气候因子的概率风险。在模糊信息扩散理论初步分析的基础上,进行综合分析试验。试验表明,在未知理论分布的情况下,模糊信息扩散法对雪灾气候因子的概率风险分析可靠简便,缺点粗糙。进一步的理论分布分析,发现冬季大雪(≥6mm)日数、最大雪深、日最大降雪量、冬季降雪量、大于等于10cm雪深日数的理论分布模型,具有Gamma分布特征,通过α=0.001的相关系数显著性检验。分析不同界限雪深日数的气候因素族的概率密度分布,发现其具有双峰型特征,不属于常规典型分布,其理论分布有待深入研究。提出的Gamma分布,分析计算的步骤、方法有实际应用价值。试验确定的具有Gamma分布特征的几个雪灾气候因子,对于从理论上认识雪灾气候风险具有重要意义。     

基于GIS的河南省洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究

在分析洪灾形成的各主要因子的基础上,提出了基于地理信息系统(GIS)的洪灾风险评估指标模型。在对指标体系赋予权重的基础上结合GIS进行洪涝灾害风险评估和区划分析,结合河南省具体情况,以降雨、地形和区域社会经济易损性为主要指标,得出河南省洪灾风险综合区划图,既有赋予权重后的准确性又有GIS区划图的一目了然,具有一定的理论和实践意义。从所得到的洪涝灾害风险区划图可以看出,信阳、驻马店、周口大部分地区由于降水较多和社会易损性影响度较大,发生洪涝的风险最大,焦作、郑州、开封和安阳、濮阳的部分地区,由于处于黄河流域发生洪涝的可能也较大,其他地区发生洪涝可能性不大。     

Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling

This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of 19 climate modellers to several questions and a discussion document circulated in 1995. We interpret the responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold about how the environmental policy process deals with scientific uncertainty over human-related global warming; the different scientific styles that exist in climate research; and the influence of organisations, institutions, and policy upon research agendas. We find evidence that scientists' perceptions of the policy process do play a role in shaping their scientific practices. In particular, many of our respondents expressed a preference for keeping discussion of the issue of flux adjustments within the climate modeling community, apparently fearing that climate contrarians would exploit the issue in the public domain. While this may be true, we point to the risk that such an approach may backfire. We also identify assumptions and cultural commitments lying at a deeper level which play at least as important a role as perceptions of the policy process in shaping scientific practices. This leads us to identify two groups of scientists, pragmatists and purists, who have different implicit standards for model adequacy, and correspondingly are or are not willing to use flux adjustments.     

Defining and Experiencing Dangerous Climate Change

Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by `experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term `external' and `internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived – it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.     

Probabilistic Formulation of Spatio-temporal Drought Pattern

Summary Meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences along time and space take place randomly and therefore their scientific quantifications are possible by the probabilistic methods. Herein drought occurrences are assumed to have spatial and temporal stationarity with underlying independent generating mechanism. The drought stricken area is considered as composed of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subareas each with different probability of drought occurrence. Two types of spatio-temporal drought formulations are presented. The first is referred to as the regional persistence model and it assumes that if any subarea is stricken by drougth it will remain to stay in this state till the whole area is covered by drought. The second alternative is multi-seasonal model and it is based on the assumption that drought stricken area might recover and have wet period during the course of time. The necessary theoretical probability distribution functions for partially drought stricken areas are derived based on the Bernoulli trials both along time and space axis. The expectation and variance parameters are derived based on the percentage of drought stricken area and the basic wet and dry spell probabilities. Necessary charts for practical purposes are prepared and interpretations are given. Received January 23, 1998 Revised June 30, 1998     

Coverage probability of bootstrap confidence intervals in heavy-tailed frequency models, with application to precipitation data

Bootstrap, a technique for determining the accuracy of statistics, is a tool widely used in climatological and hydrological applications. The paper compares coverage probabilities of confidence intervals of high quantiles (5- to 200-year return values) constructed by the nonparametric and parametric bootstrap in frequency analysis of heavy-tailed data, typical for maxima of precipitation amounts. The simulation experiments are based on a wide range of models used for precipitation extremes (generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto, generalized logistic, and mixed distributions). The coverage probability of the confidence intervals is quantified for several sample sizes (n?=?20, 40, 60, and 100) and tail behaviors. We show that both bootstrap methods underestimate the width of the confidence intervals but that the parametric bootstrap is clearly superior to the nonparametric one. Even a misspecification of the parametric model—often unavoidable in practice—does not prevent the parametric bootstrap from performing better in most cases. A tendency to narrower confidence intervals from the nonparametric than parametric bootstrap is demonstrated in the application to high quantiles of distributions of observed maxima of 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts; the differences increase with the return level. The results show that estimation of uncertainty based on nonparametric bootstrap is highly unreliable, especially for small and moderate sample sizes and for very heavy-tailed data.     

农业气象服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法初探

气象科技服务的效益问题，一直是气象学界关心的问题之一。然而，天气预报与生俱来的一个特点就是其产品具有它固有的不确定性，探讨农业气象科技服务经济效益的理论方法，无论是对于提高气象科技服务的社会经济效益，还是对于提高气象部门的自身经济效益都显得十分重要。本文采用离散模式和概率统计等方法对农业气象决策服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法进行了初步探讨，并以一些个例进行说明。     

Decision making under catastrophic risk and learning: the case of the possible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

A collapse of the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would cause a sea level rise of 5–6 m, perhaps even within 100 years, with catastrophic consequences. The probability of such a collapse is small but increasing with the rise of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas and the resulting climate change. This paper investigates how the potential collapse of the WAIS affects the optimal rate of greenhouse gas emission control. We design a decision and learning tree in which decision are made about emission reduction at regular intervals: the decision makers (who act as social planners) have to decide whether to implement the environmental or not (keeping then the flexibility to act later). By investing in the environmental policy, they determine optimally the date of the optimal emission reduction. At the same time, they receive new information on the probability of a WAIS collapse and the severity of its impacts. The probability of a WAIS collapse is endogenous and contingent on greenhouse gas concentrations. We solve this optimisation problem by backward induction. We find that a potential WAIS collapse substantially bring the date of the optimal emission reduction forward and increases its amount if the probability is high enough (a probability of 1% per year for the worst case), if the impacts are high enough (a worst case damage of 10% of GDP for a 3?C warming) or if the decision maker is risk averse enough (for example a social damage due to pollution equal to 1% GDP for an atmospheric temperature of 3?C). We also find that, as soon as a WAIS collapse is a foregone fact, emission reduction falls to free up resource to prepare for adapting to the inevitable. By contrast, adaptation (such as building dikes along the coast) postpones policy intervention because that strategy reduces the risk of catastrophic damages.     

The importance of expressly examining global warming policy issues through an ethical prism

A vast scientific and economic literature on global warming has emerged in the last two decades. Surprisingly, however, there has been little written on the ethical dimensions of human-induced climate change despite the numerous, obvious, and profoundly important ethical questions raised by human activities that are now clearly threatening human health, the environment, and many things humans value greatly. This paper argues that ethical analysis of global warming issues is practically imperative for two reasons. First, unless ethical is made analysis is made of global warming issues, ethically dubious decisions about global warming will be made because many of the most important ethical considerations are hidden in what appear to be ethically neutral scientific and economic arguments about global warming policy options. Secondly, unless issues of ethics, justice and equity are expressly dealt with, urgently needed global solutions to global warming will not likely be adopted by many nations. That is, an ethical focus on global warming matters is the key to achieve a globally acceptable solution and to harness political support for action. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how institutions and nations should go about implementing express examination of the ethical dimensions of global warming questions. The paper argues for express identification of ethical issues often hidden in scientific and economic analyses of global warming policy options.     

基于风险矩阵的重大活动气象风险评估

基于风险矩阵理论,初步建立了重大活动气象风险评估方法与流程,并以北京某重大庆祝活动服务为例,在多部门联合共同确定活动期间气象风险源的基础上,利用长时间序列气象资料及短期测风雷达观测资料,分析了庆祝活动期间各类气象风险的可能性,结合对活动可能造成后果的严重程度,利用风险矩阵开展了气象风险评估及风险控制研究。评估结果表明,庆祝活动期间主要气象风险依次为降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾、夜晚大风、高温、雷电、低温等7类。其中,降水/阴雨、白天大风、雾-霾为高风险,夜晚大风为中风险,其余均为低风险,根据评估结果建立的风险控制原则和具体措施成功应用于庆祝活动风险控制中。与现有气象业务服务中天气风险评估相比,本研究实现了重大活动气象风险评估由仅考虑高影响天气出现概率向基于影响的风险评估的转变。     

Vulnerability conditions and risk representations in Latin-America: Framing the territorializing urban risk

In risk studies, a large scope of approaches has already been defined, from hazard-centered to socially rooted analysis; being social scientists’ focus on vulnerability more obvious from the late 1960s on. The present epistemological article locates risk causes in society and states that the production of risks is two fold: these are both material and discursive. The conceptual proposal of the article consists of setting an integrative framework that accounts for material aspects of risk as well as for the performative dimensions of its discourses, representations and conceptions. By performativity we mean that discourses and representations do not only reflect what people see or have in mind, but that they also operate the world and make things exist, having concrete consequences in society and its relations with the environment. The proposed framework is called the territorialization-of-risk framework and requires contextualizing and politicizing risk. We state that such framework lays epistemological and methodological groundwork for such a perspective. Territories are viewed as social constructions that are more than bounded pieces of space where an authority takes place. They are spaces where competing social meanings and identification are ascribed, and their making accounts for both material and ideal social drivers that also do intervene in the production of risk. Drawing on different Latin-American cities’ case studies, and mainly on the case of Caracas as former PhD fieldwork, the territorialization-of-risk allows asking critical questions related with power relations, social status, identity and discourses. Actually, risk appears to be the result of a social (both material and ideal) production as it contributes to the shaping of society. It is an outcome and a driver of society at the same time. The territorialization-of-risk framework sheds the light on the importance of non-material aspects in framing risk, as well as on the factual and discursive consequences of its management and policy.     

云南烤烟低温冷害风险区划

用云南93个烤烟种植县气象站1961—2010年4—9月逐日平均气温、逐日最低气温,逐月平均气温,平均最低气温资料结合各类型烤烟低温冷害指标,基于概率和强度结合权重指数,计算了各烤烟种植县的春季、夏季、秋初和全生育期综合低温冷害风险指数。使用低温冷害风险指数与海拔、纬度因子建立的空间推算回归模型,在ArcGIS 9.3平台下实现了低温冷害风险指数的空间精细化推算、订正及区划,进一步将其分类为5个风险等级,且对区划结果进行了分析。区划结果可为烤烟生产相关单位提供低温冷害防御的决策依据。     

10—11月海南省瓜菜苗期湿涝风险评估与区划

为了评估海南省冬种瓜菜苗期生长阶段容易遭受的湿涝灾害,基于1998—2011年海南省18个气象站气象资料、各市县西瓜、豇豆、辣椒、丝瓜4种冬种瓜菜产量及苗期湿涝灾情资料,以降水量、降水日数等因子建立主成分分析综合指标,通过灾情反演构建苗期湿涝致灾等级指标,结合孕灾、灾损和防灾能力进行瓜菜苗期湿涝灾害综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:瓜菜苗期湿涝危险性从西南至东北增加,轻度与重度湿涝风险概率分布趋势相反,苗期湿涝孕灾敏感性从中西部山区向沿海和平原地区增加,瓜菜苗期湿涝灾损风险和防灾能力分布存在差异,且不同瓜菜差异明显;4种瓜菜苗期湿涝综合风险总体分布趋势一致,从西南至东北地区风险等级加重,降水、地势、土地等因素综合导致东部和北部部分地区苗期湿涝的风险高。     

气象灾害指标在湖南春玉米种植区划中的应用

根据湖南省97个气象站1961—2004年气温、日照、降水等气象资料, 结合玉米生态习性和田间试验分析结果, 计算了玉米生长期内相关的灾害指标。得出玉米吐丝-成熟期干旱、高温热害及播种-出苗期的连阴雨3个气象灾害指标对其生长的影响最大, 在分析该3个灾害指标的地域分布特征基础上, 利用该3个指标出现概率, 引进“无级变速”原理, 进行春玉米种植区划。区划结果表明:湖南大部分地方适宜种植春玉米, 从区划结果与实际产量对比分析比较, 湖南玉米的高产区均在最适宜区和适宜区内; 低产区大多都在较适宜区和次适宜区, 只是湘东南山地低产区在最适宜区范围内, 与实际情况不吻合。原因可能是这一区域玉米生长期内光、温资源不足, 加之土壤肥力较差的缘故。     

Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

基于自然灾害风险理论的黑龙江省玉米干旱风险评价

为了明确黑龙江省玉米干旱风险区划,为农业防灾减灾和保障玉米安全生产提供参考,选取黑龙江省玉米主要种植区44个农业气象站1971-2017年气象资料及农业资料,划分玉米全生育期为玉米生长前期（出苗-抽雄）,玉米生长后期（抽雄-成熟）,基于自然灾害风险评价方法,以水分亏缺指数确定不同生育期干旱指标,考虑危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4项要素,引入权重系数,采用灰色关联度方法,确定四个因子对灾害发生的不同影响程度,构建危险性评估模型,评估黑龙江省玉米干旱风险,并进行了干旱风险区划。结果表明：在玉米不同发育期,干旱风险指数高值区均主要位于松嫩平原地区,其中,黑龙江西部地区为玉米干旱高风险区,中高值区分布在哈尔滨双城区以及绥化市肇东县。黑龙江省西南部地区肇州、肇源、安达等地区为中等风险区。而低值区主要分布在黑龙江东部三江平原地区以及黑河、伊春、牡丹江等地。研究结果可为黑龙江省玉米干旱防灾减灾工作提供理论依据。