Africa and the Green Climate Fund: current challenges and future opportunities

Although the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is widely commendable in several ways, access to the Fund has been very challenging for many African countries. Using GCF published statistics, we identify possible challenges likely to be responsible for this. First, we present an assessment of the GCF’s Readiness Support Programme with respect to how the programme’s performance may have affected achievement of African countries’ readiness outcomes. Second, a critical evaluation of the status of African GCF portfolio (pipeline and approved projects) provides a means by which to assess how well Africa’s current portfolio aligns with GCF strategic impact areas, results areas and investment priorities. We then discuss GCF access modalities and the implications of relying on International Accredited Entities (IAEs) to indirectly access the Fund. The readiness support assessment indicates that the distribution of support requests and funding approvals is nearly equal across the regions of Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. However, when the regions are considered individually, Africa demonstrates lower approvals with respect to requests and securing funding. Results from the GCF portfolio evaluation reveal that little or no attention has been devoted to GCF critical result areas such as forests and land use or transport, where great potentials for low-carbon development transitions exist. With respect to access modalities, the IAE financing mechanism currently provides access to the Fund for the majority of projects in both the global and African GCF portfolios. The implications of these findings are extensively discussed.

Key policy insights

• For Africa, limited readiness support and a reliance on International Accredited Entities constrains capacity building, thereby reinforcing a lack of both readiness and direct access to the GCF.

• There are opportunities for Africa to diversify its GCF portfolios, adhere to international commitments, and address its adaptation and development needs by identifying and capitalizing on linkages between GCF funding priorities, mitigation, and adaptation.

• There are leverage points within existing climate finance and governance systems that could catalyse a shift in Africa’s engagement with the GCF and generate positive, cascading effects on institutional strengthening, direct access accreditation and securing funding.

     

Oil palm expansion in Cameroon: Insights into sustainability opportunities and challenges in Africa

Oil palm production expanded 1.2 million hectares in sub-Saharan Africa since 1990, with expansion accelerating in several heavily forested countries since 2000. Despite a narrative of expansion driven by multinational corporations, we provide evidence of a dynamic non-industrial oil palm production sector linked to a burgeoning informal milling enterprise. Surveys were conducted with oil palm farmers in Cameroon (n = 546), the third largest palm oil producer on the continent with the greatest amount of deforestation due to recent expansion, to determine who is expanding into forest. Seventy-three percent of survey respondents reported clearing forest, the magnitude of which was explained by differences in milling strategies and supply chain integration. Large-scale, non-industrial producers played a disproportionate role in deforestation, many of which were engaged in informal supply chains through the use of non-industrial mills. Farms associated with more clearing tended to use high-yielding seedlings. Even the highest yielding farms, however, averaged only 7.7 tons fresh fruit bunches (FFBs) ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, well below the potential 20 tons FFBs ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ yield for Cameroon. We also found a strong relationship between deforestation and land claims. Most farms claimed ownership of their land, although only 5% had official land titles. Conservation challenges in the region arise from land tenure laws that incentivize forest clearing. This study sheds light on the role of informal supply chains in deforestation and highlights the need for strict implementation and enforcement of land use zoning policies.     

Drought and the future of rural communities: Opportunities and challenges for climate change adaptation in regional Victoria,Australia

Australia's vulnerability to climate variability and change has been highlighted by the recent drought (i.e. the Big Dry or Millennium Drought), and also recent flooding across much of eastern Australia during 2011 and 2012. There is also the possibility that the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts may increase due to anthropogenic climate change, stressing the need for robust drought adaptation strategies. This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of drought, past and present drought adaptation measures, and the future adaptation strategies required to deal with projected impacts of climate change. The qualitative analysis presented records the actual experiences of drought and other climatic extremes and helps advance knowledge of how best to respond and adapt to such conditions, and how this might vary between different locations, sectors and communities. It was found that more effort is needed to address the changing environment and climate, by shifting from notions of ‘drought-as-crisis’ towards acknowledging the variable availability of water and that multi-year droughts should not be unexpected, and may even become more frequent. Action should also be taken to revalue the farming enterprise as critical to our environmental, economic and cultural well-being and there was also strong consensus that the value of water should be recognised in a more meaningful way (i.e. not just in economic terms). Finally, across the diverse stakeholders involved in the research, one point was consistently reiterated: that ‘it's not just drought’. Exacerbating the issues of climate impacts on water security and supply is the complexity of the agriculture industry, global economics (in particular global markets and the recent/ongoing global financial crisis), and demographic changes (decreasing and ageing populations) which are currently occurring across most rural communities. The social and economic issues facing rural communities are not just a product of drought or climate change – to understand them as such would underestimate the extent of the problems and inhibit the ability to coordinate the holistic, cross-agency approach needed for successful climate change adaptation in rural communities.     

Economic development and prosperity patterns around the world: Structural challenges for a global steady-state economy

Taking a global perspective this paper sets out to theoretically and empirically identify prosperity patterns for four groups of countries at different levels of economic development. It conceptualizes ‘prosperity’ in terms of ecological sustainability, social inclusion, and the quality of life and contextualizes this definition in global perspective. Subsequently, it operationalizes and measures these dimensions on the basis of data from sources such as the World Bank, the Global Footprint Network and the OECD for 138 countries and by applying dual multiple factor analysis. Building on earlier research that suggested that higher development levels in terms of GDP per capita are capable of providing social and individual prosperity but at the expense of environmental sustainability, we ask whether other interrelations between prosperity indicators exist on other levels of economic development. Empirically distinguishing between ‘rich’, ‘emerging’, ‘developing’ and ‘poor countries’ the paper finds that social and individual prosperity indicators largely increase with economic development while ecological sustainability indicators worsen. Our analyses further reveal that ‘social cohesion’ can be established under different economic and institutional conditions, that subjective wellbeing increases with income rises at all levels of economic development and that a decoupling of carbon emissions from the provision of prosperity is, in principle, achievable, while a reduction of the global matter and energy throughput poses a much greater challenge. The paper concludes by highlighting the repercussions of these findings for the trajectories that countries at different levels of economic development would need to undertake.     

From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: Challenges for agriculture in Europe

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture in Europe. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in southern regions, and create new opportunities in some northern areas. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across European regions by analysing over 300 highly relevant publications that appeared in the last decade. The result is a synthesis of the reasons for concern for European agricultural regions. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The results highlight the importance of enhanced water use efficiency as a critical response to climate risks and the need for a more effective extension service. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali

What would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.     

Beyond peasant deforestation: environment and development in rural Jamaica

Jamaica is experiencing one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world, with severe environmental consequences attendant to the loss of its forests. It is also plagued by high levels of poverty, particularly in rural areas. As throughout much of the tropics, impoverished peasant farmers are blamed as the primary agents in Jamaica's forest colonisation. Employing a case study in the Blue Mountains, this paper explores the discord that exists between forest conservation and the development priorities of poor farmers, arguing that this unsustainable dichotomy can only be understood by acknowledging the political economy which constrains peasant agriculture.     

Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia

The Western Australian wheat-belt has experienced more rainfall decline than any other wheat-cropping region in Australia. Future climate change scenarios suggest that the Western Australian wheat-belt is likely to see greater future reductions in rainfall than other regions, together with a further increase in temperatures. While these changes appear adverse for water-limited rain-fed agriculture, a close analysis of the changes and their impacts reveals a more complex story. Twentieth century changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration have had little or no overall impact on wheat yields. Changes in agricultural technology and farming systems have had much larger impacts. Contrary to some claims, there is no scientific or economic justification for any immediate actions by farmers to adapt to long-term climate change in the Western Australian wheat-belt, beyond normal responses to short-term variations in weather. Rather than promoting current change, the most important policy response is research and development to enable farmers to facilitate future adaptation to climate change. Research priorities are proposed.     

Budgeting for climate change: obstacles and opportunities at the US state level

State governments in the United States are well placed to identify opportunities for mitigation and the needs for adaptation to climate change. However, the cost of these efforts can have important implications for budgets that already face pressures from diverse areas such as unfunded pensions and growing health care costs. In this work, the current level of spending on climate-related activities at the state level are evaluated and policy recommendations are developed to improve financial management practices as they relate to climate risk. An examination of state budgets reveals that climate mitigation and adaptation activities represent less than 1% of spending in most states. The data collection highlights the obstacles to collecting accurate spending data and the lack of budgetary and accounting procedures in place. More importantly, the difficulty in benchmarking these activities poses challenges for the analysis of state-level policies as well as planning and modelling future climate-related spending. Other policy contexts, including public pensions and infrastructure, can provide guidance on budgetary and accounting tools that may help states prepare for and more efficiently manage climate-related expenditures.

Key policy insights

• Climate change mitigation and adaptation will require substantial investments across many levels of government on a wide range of activities.

• Currently, US states are not clearly demarcating climate expenditures, hindering the identification of climate-related budgetary risks.

• In the absence of guidelines, these longer term fiscal outlays may remain chronically underfunded in favour of more near-term spending priorities.

• Establishing appropriate financial management and data collection practices is important for more sophisticated cost-effectiveness and policy analyses.

     

Community forest management in Mexico: carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation through rural development

Forest management is an important carbon mitigation strategy for developing countries. As demonstrated by the case of Mexico, community forest management is especially effective because it offers tangible local benefits while conserving forests and sequestering carbon. Community forestry receives minimal government support now, but the clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol could leverage additional resources to promote the approach in Mexico and elsewhere. We argue that adequately designed and implemented, community forestry management projects can avoid deforestation and restore forest cover and forest density. They comprise promising options for providing both carbon mitigation and sustainable rural development. These kinds of projects should be included in the CDM.     

Sustainable agriculture and the production of biomass for energy use

Modern bioenergy is seen as a promising option to curb greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, a potential competition for land and water between bioenergy and food crops. Another question is whether biomass for energy use can be produced in a sustainable manner given the current conventional agricultural production practices. Other than the land and water competition, this question is often neglected in scenarios to meet a significant part of global energy demand with bioenergy. In the following, I address this question. There are sustainable alternatives, for example organic agriculture, to avoid the negative environmental effects of conventional agriculture. Yet, meeting a significant part of global energy demand with biomass grown sustainably may not be possible, as burning significant quantities of organic matter—inherent in bioenergy use—is likely to be incompatible with the principles of such alternatives, which often rely on biomass input for nutrient balance. There may therefore be a trade-off between policies and practices to increase bioenergy and those to increase sustainability in agriculture via practices such as organic farming. This is not a general critique of bioenergy but it points to additional potential dangers of modern bioenergy as a strategy to meet significant parts of world energy demand.     

Climate change and agriculture: A perspective on priorities for economic policy

Research on the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture and world grain markets suggests that adaptation will occur with relatively small effects on total production. Additional research shows that reducing emission of greenhouse gases from U.S. agricultural production is relatively expensive compared to encouraging reforestation as an offset to emissions of carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, continued population growth and the increasing inequality of income across countries are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of climate change. Concepts of sustainability should be expanded to cover industrial as well as agricultural production, and promote the efficient use of fossil fuels in general. Dealing with climate change effectively will require international cooperation and a willingness to address population growth and the divergence of incomes between rich and poor countries.     

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.     

Carbon for Farmers: Assessing the Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal

Carbon sequestration in soil organic matter of degraded Sahelian agro-ecosystems could play a significant role in the global carbon (C) uptake through terrestrial sinks while, simultaneously, contributing to sustainable agriculture and desertification control. The paper documents the results of a two-year pilot project in Senegal assessing real project opportunities with main emphasis on the West-Central Agricultural Region (Old Peanut Basin). Current total system C content in this region, calculated on the basis of in situ soil and biomass carbon measurements, amounted to 28 t ha^–1 with 11 t C ha^–1 in soils (0–20 cm) and 6.3 t C ha^–1 in trees. Potential changes in soil C, simulated with CENTURY for a 25-year period, ranged from –0.13 t C ha^–1 yr^–1 under poor management to +0.43 t C ha^–1 yr^–1 under optimum agricultural intensification. Simulated changes in crop yields varied from –62% to +200% under worst and best management scenarios respectively. Best management practices that generate the highest sequestration rates are economically not feasible for the majority of local smallholders, unless considerable financial support is provided. Especially when applied on a larger scale, such packages risk to undermine local, opportunistic management regimes and, in the long run, also the beneficiaries capacity to successfully adapt to their constantly changing environment.     

Carbon for Farmers: Assessing the Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal

Carbon sequestration in soil organic matter of degraded Sahelian agro-ecosystems could play a significant role in the global carbon (C) uptake through terrestrial sinks while, simultaneously, contributing to sustainable agriculture and desertification control. The paper documents the results of a two-year pilot project in Senegal assessing real project opportunities with main emphasis on the West-Central Agricultural Region (Old Peanut Basin). Current total system C content in this region, calculated on the basis of in situ soil and biomass carbon measurements, amounted to 28 t ha^–1 with 11 t C ha^–1 in soils (0–20 cm) and 6.3 t C ha^–1 in trees. Potential changes in soil C, simulated with CENTURY for a 25-year period, ranged from –0.13 t C ha^–1 yr^–1 under poor management to +0.43 t C ha^–1 yr^–1 under optimum agricultural intensification. Simulated changes in crop yields varied from –62% to +200% under worst and best management scenarios respectively. Best management practices that generate the highest sequestration rates are economically not feasible for the majority of local smallholders, unless considerable financial support is provided. Especially when applied on a larger scale, such packages risk to undermine local, opportunistic management regimes and, in the long run, also the beneficiaries capacity to successfully adapt to their constantly changing environment.     

A Modeling Study of Climate Change and Its Implication for Agriculture in China Part II: The Implication of Climate Change for Agriculture in China

The potential CO2-induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were studied from seven GCMs outputs. The wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubling CO2 climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing and more heat-tolerant cultivars.     

Soil Carbon Sequestration and the CDM: Opportunities and Challenges for Africa

This paper examines soil carbon sequestration in developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa as part of regional and global attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and the possibility that the development of greenhouse gas mitigation projects will offer local ancillary benefits. The paper documents the improvements in agricultural practices and land-use management in sub-Saharan Africa that could increase agricultural productivity and sequester soil carbon. During the first five-year commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, only afforestation and reforestation projects will be eligible for crediting under the Clean Development Mechanism, but soil carbon sequestration and broader sink activities could become eligible during subsequent commitment periods. However, very few cost estimates of soil carbon sequestration strategies exist, and available data are not readily comparable. It is uncertain how large amounts of carbon could be sequestered, and it is unclear how well site-specific studies represent wider areas. It is concluded that there presently is a need to launch long-term (>10 years) field experiments and demonstration and pilot projects for soil carbon sequestration in Africa. It will be important to monitor all environmental effects and carbon `costs' as well as estimate all economic benefits and costs of projects.