Application of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory to Predictions of Moderate Earthquakes (7.0>M≥6.0)

The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.     

Source processes of large (M≥6.5) earthquakes of the Southeastern Caribbean (1926–1960)

We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of 13 historic earthquakes to provide a better understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity and deformation within a region extending from Barbuda, Lesser Antilles, to Cumana, Venezuela. Our results suggest that shallow earthquakes (<50 km deep) along the South American-Caribbean plate margin reflect right-lateral and extensional deformation. Intermediate depth events (100 km) show left-lateral strike-slip motion beneath the Paria peninsula of Venezuela. In the Lesser Antilles the 1960 Barbuda and 1946 Martinique earthquakes appear to be interplate thrust events, however the greatest moment release in the region has occurred at intermediate depths as a mixture of normal and strike-slip faulting, generally along trends oblique to the arc. The deformation rate estimated from the seismic moment release between 1926 and 1960 is only 1 to 10% of the estimated plate convergence rate for the region.     

Study on the Relationship Between Recent Crustal Deformation and the Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Strong Earthquakes ( Ms ≥6.0) in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Analysis of deformation data measured across the faults, regional vertical deformation data and GPS measurements in the Sichuan-Yunnan region made since the 1980s permitted us to conclude that the crustal deformation in the region during this period of time was relatively weak and caused the occurrence of earthquakes (Ms≥6.0), which were not distributed along the major boundary active faults in the region after the 1981 I)awu Ms 6.9 earthquake and that the seismic activity is characterized by quasi-clockwise migration. Thus, it follows that earthquake prediction research should be focused on the central part of the Sichuan-Yunnan region in the coming years. Finally, a concept of temporal division of the region into active blocks is suggested and the preliminary result of the division is given in the paper.     

Analysis on the Regional Features of Coda Attenuation Before and After the 1992 Qina (M_S= 5.4, 5.1) Earthquakes in WYEPSA

Using the theoretical model of coda scattering from local earthquakes, we have studied the features of time-space variations of the attenuation rate β of coda amplitude and coda Qc-1 values before and after the Qina earthquakes (MS5.4 and MS5.1) in Dec. 1992 in West Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area (WYEPSA). The study results show that the attenuation rate of coda amplitude has remarkable regional inhomogeneity in the near-field (△ <50 km) around the main shock: β = 0.0076 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0056 during the main shock while (3 = 0.0209 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0153 during the aftershock. The Qc-1 value shows an approximate 3-foid variation before and after the main shock. We have also obtained the regional averages of β = 0.0235 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0153, which show that the coda attenuation in surrounding areas (△ > 50 km) far away from the epicenter of the main shock did not change much before and after the main shock. The evolution of Qc-1 values of the main seismic sequence with time has passed throug     

Dissolution/crystallization kinetics recorded in the 2002–2003 lavas of Stromboli (Italy)

On 28 December 2002, new vents opened on the flanks of Stromboli, just below the summit craters, interrupting the persistent activity of the volcano with a 7-month-long effusive eruption. We here report on the plagioclase size distribution (PlgSD) in lava samples collected following the chronology of the 2002–2003 eruption. Data reveal a linear PlgSD similar to that found in samples of normal Stromboli activity, indicating that the switch from Strombolian explosive to effusive activity is not associated with changes in texture. Nevertheless, the crystal size distribution slopes and intercepts exhibit slight sinusoidal temporal variations that are here ascribed to a magma supply mechanism able to induce “resonance” in the crystal size distribution, with an amplitude that depends on the supply rate.     

Identifying the precursors of large (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in Kamchatka based on data from the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian expert council on earthquake prediction: 1998–2011

This paper describes the activities of the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council on Earthquake Prediction, Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Risk (KB REC) over a 14 year period. We provide brief information on how the KB REC functions, the methods that are used for earthquake prediction in expert assessments, forecasts, and precursors of M ≥ 6.0 Kamchatka earthquakes for the 1998–2011 period. The efficiency of prediction using several methods is estimated.     

Global distribution and climatological features of the 5–6-day planetary waves seen in the SABER/TIMED temperatures (2002–2007)

The paper is focused on the global spatial structure, seasonal and interannual variability of the ～5-day Rossby (W1) and ～6-day Kelvin (E1) waves derived from the SABER/TIMED temperature measurements for 6 full years (January 2002–December 2007). The latitude structure of the ～5-day W1 wave is related to the gravest symmetric wave number 1 Rossby wave. The vertical structure of the ～5-day Rossby wave amplitude consists of double-peaked maxima centred at ～80–90 km and ～105–110 km. This wave has a vertically propagating phase structure from the stratosphere up to 120 km altitude with a mean vertical wavelength of ～50–60 km. The ～6-day E1 wave is an equatorially trapped wave symmetric about the equator and located between 20°N and 20°S. Its seasonal behaviour indicates some equinoctial and June solstice amplifications, while the vertical phase structure indicates that this is a vertically propagating wave between 20–100 km altitudes with a mean vertical wavelength of ～25 km.     

Multiresolution wavelets and natural time analysis before the January–February 2014 Cephalonia (Mw6.1 & 6.0) sequence of strong earthquake events

On January 26 and February 3, 2014, Cephalonia Island (Ionian Sea, Greece) was struck by two strong, shallow earthquakes (moment magnitudes Mw6.1 and Mw6.0, respectively) that ruptured two sub-parallel, strike-slip faults, with right-lateral kinematics. The scope of the present work is to investigate the complex correlations of the earthquake activity that preceded the Mw6.1 event in the broader area of the Cephalonia Island and identify possible indications of critical stages in the evolution of the earthquake generation process. We apply the recently introduced methods of Multiresolution Wavelet Analysis (MRWA) and Natural Time (NT) analysis and for the first time we combine their results in a joint approach that may lead to universal principles in describing the evolution of the earthquake activity as it approaches a major event. In particular, the initial application of MRWA on the inter-event time series indicates a time marker 12 days prior to the major event. By using this time as the initiation point of the NT analysis, the critical stage of seismicity, where the κ₁ parameter reaches the critical value of κ₁ = 0.070, is approached few days before the occurrence of the Mw6.1 earthquake.     

Shifting Correlation Between Earthquakes and Electromagnetic Signals: A Case Study of the 2013 Minxian–Zhangxian ML 6.5 (MW 6.1) Earthquake in Gansu,China

The shifting correlation method (SCM) is proposed for statistical analysis of the correlation between earthquake sequences and electromagnetic signal sequences. In this method, the two different sequences were treated in units of 1 day. With the earthquake sequences fixed, the electromagnetic sequences were continuously shifted on the time axis, and the linear correlation coefficients between the two were calculated. In this way, the frequency and temporal distribution characteristics of potential seismic electromagnetic signals in the pre, co, and post-seismic stages were analyzed. In the work discussed in this paper, we first verified the effectiveness of the SCM and found it could accurately identify indistinct related signals by use of sufficient samples of synthetic data. Then, as a case study, the method was used for analysis of electromagnetic monitoring data from the Minxian–Zhangxian M_L 6.5 (M_W 6.1) earthquake. The results showed: (1) there seems to be a strong correlation between earthquakes and electromagnetic signals at different frequency in the pre, co, and post-seismic stages, with correlation coefficients in the range 0.4–0.7. The correlation was positive and negative before and after the earthquakes, respectively. (2) The electromagnetic signals related to the earthquakes might appear 23 days before and last for 10 days after the shocks. (3) To some extent, the occurrence time and frequency band of seismic electromagnetic signals are different at different stations. We inferred that the differences were related to resistivity, active tectonics, and seismogenic structure.     

Hydrocarbon gases (C1–C5) and organic matter in bottom sediments of the Ivankovo Reservoir on the Volga River

The results of studying the composition of hydrocarbon gases (C₁–C₅) and organic matter in bottom sediments of the Ivankovo Reservoir in 1995, 2004, and 2005 are given. The methods used in the study include vapor-phase gas chromatography, instrumental pyrolysis gas chromatography, and mass-spectrometry for determining organic carbon δ ¹³C_org. The gas field of bottom sediments in different regions of the reservoir varies widely in terms of gas saturation and the spectrum of hydrocarbon gases. This suggests the heterogeneous composition of organic matter in the sediments and different conditions of its input and transformation processes. The gases were found to contain saturated hydrocarbons from methane to pentane C₁–C₅, including isomers i-C₄ and i-C₅ and unsaturated compounds C₂–C₄. A correlation was found to exist between methane distribution and the distribution of its more high-molecular homologues, which confirms their genetic relationship in bottom sediments. The obtained results show an increase in the rate of microbiological processes and organic matter transformation for most regions in the Ivankovo Reservoir. The only exceptions are the zones of Moshkovichskii Bay and the sections at Gorodnya and Konakovo, where technogenic organic matter is being accumulated. The high information value of hydrocarbon gases as biogeochemical markers of the sources of organic matter and the rates of its transformation is demonstrated. The isotopic composition of organic-matter carbon in the bottom sediments of the Ivankovo Reservoir δ ¹³C varies from ?26.21 to ?30.86‰.     

“Great East Siberian” earthquake of February 1, 1725 (M = 8.2): Revision of the main parameters in the light of additional data and modern requirements

The earthquake of February 1 (January 21 in the Julian Calendar), 1725 was for a long time considered not only the earliest precisely dated historical seismic event in eastern Siberia, but also the most powerful earthquake for the entire period of recorded seismic events in the region: M = 8.2 (Novyi katalog…, 1977). The epicenter location (Stanovoy Upland) and the magnitude of the event were assessed on the basis of very scanty historical data, as well as using paleoseismogeological information. The February 1, 1725 event received the name “The Great East Siberian” earthquake and served for decades as decisive evidence for the assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic zoning of the northeastern flank of the Baikal rift zone. However, the solution of the focal parameters in the (Novyi katalog…, 1977) has caused serious doubts. In this paper a newly elaborated version is proposed that is based on a detailed reevaluation of the initially known macroseismic information, as well as additional historical data that previously had not come to the attention of seismologists. As the result, a different solution of the focal parameters (51.8° N; 113.0° E, eastern Transbaikalia) and a significantly lower magnitude (M = 6.0) compared with the parameters given in (Novyi katalog…, 1977) were obtained. The presented solution makes us more attentive to the estimates of seismic hazard in east Transbaikalia based on historical data, as well as to the historical data themselves.     

Series of asymmetric pulses in the low-frequency range (Periods of 1–300 min) of microseisms as indicators of a metastable state in seismically active zones

Analysis of microseismic oscillations in a period range of several minutes recorded before the Kronotsky (December 5, 1997), Simushir (November 15, 2006), Hokkaido (September 25, 2003), and Neftegorsk (May 27, 1995) earthquakes revealed series of asymmetric pulses (SAPs) arising a few days before the earthquakes. Records of IRIS stations located at various distances from epicenters of the earthquakes were analyzed. SAPs were recorded only by stations located in a seismoactive zone in which an earthquake occurred. The SAP onset times and amplitudes are uncorrelated with the microseismic noise level in a period range of several seconds caused by storm phenomena in the ocean and other meteorological factors. Some intervals between successive pulses had the same length, which indicated a periodicity of their occurrence. It is supposed that SAPs can be caused by elastoplastic displacements in a fault zone.     

Microseismic noise in the low frequency range (Periods of 1–300 min): Properties and possible prognostic features

The paper generalizes the experience accumulated in studies of microseismic noise in the period range from 1 to 300 min observed during time intervals preceding a few strong earthquakes. This frequency range is the least studied and occupies an intermediate position between low frequency seismology and investigations of slow geophysical processes. The range includes oscillations induced by atmospheric and oceanic processes and various modes of the Earth’s free oscillations excited by very strong earthquakes. The main attention in the paper is given to the background behavior of microseisms, which contains continuous present arrivals from near weak and far strong and moderate earthquakes. The paper focuses on the examination of synchronization effects arising in joint multivariate analysis of information from several stations with estimation of multifractal spectra of singularity and multidimensional spectral measures of coherent behavior of singularity spectral parameters. The problem of using the synchronization effects of microseismic background in the search for new precursors of strong earthquakes is discussed.     

Soil characteristics and site effect assessment in the city of Delhi (India) using H/V and f–k methods

Local site conditions substantially affect the characteristics of seismic waves and its potential to cause earthquake damage. To accurately identify the variation of seismic hazard at different locations within the cities, measurements from a three-component station may be used for estimating the resonance frequencies and evaluate the expected level of damage at each site. This information can also be complemented with array measurements of ambient noise in order to estimate the V_s profiles and characterize the corresponding sediment layers at each site.     

The breakdown of diopside to(Ca,Mg)SiO3 perovskite–(Mg,Ca,Fe)SiO3 glass–(Mg,Ca)SiO3 glass–(Mg,Ca)SiO3 majorite in a melt vein the Suizhou L6 chondrite

The Suizhou meteorite is a heavily shocked and melted vein-containing L6 chondrite. It contains a minor amount of diopside with a(Ca_0.419Mg_0.466Fe_0.088)SiO₃ composition, and a shock-metamorphosed diopside grain associated with ringwoodite and lingunite was found in a melt vein of this meteorite. Our electron microprobe,transmission electron microscopic and Raman spectroscopic analyses revealed four silicate phases with different compositions and struct...     

On the relationships of water-level variations in the E-1 well, Kamchatka to the 2008–2009 resumption of activity on Koryakskii volcano and to large (M ≥ 5) earthquakes

We discuss the water-level variations in the E-1 well for the time period between May 2006 and 2010, inclusive. A trend towards an increasing level at an abnormally high rate occurred from mid-2006 to December 2009. This increase is regarded as the response of the aquifer of gas-saturated ground water that exists in the volcanogenic-sedimentary deposits of the Avacha volcano-tectonic depression to volumetric compression strain changes during the precursory period and the occurrence of a swarm of small earthquakes $\left( {K_{S_{\max } } = 8.3} \right)$ in the area of Koryakskii Volcano and to its phreatic eruption. We estimated the volumetric compression as ??? = ?(4.1 × 10^?6?1.5 × 10^?5) from the amplitude of water-level rise using the elastic parameters of the water-saturated rocks. While the strain source was active, we observed a decreasing sensitivity of the hydrodynamic regime in the well to the precursory processes before large (M ?? 5.0) tectonic earthquakes.     

Assessment of various CPT based liquefaction severity index frameworks relative to the Ishihara (1985) H1–H2 boundary curves

The objective of the study presented herein is to develop an understanding of the predictive trends of four different liquefaction severity index frameworks, with emphasis on the utility of the frameworks for assessing liquefaction vulnerability in Christchurch, New Zealand. Liquefaction induced land damage was widespread following the four major earthquakes in Christchurch (M_w 5.9–7.1) between 4 September 2010 and 23 December 2011. As part of the rebuilding effort, a major focus, to date, has been on assessing/developing approaches for evaluating vulnerability to liquefaction induced damage in future events. The four liquefaction severity index frameworks that are evaluated herein are: the one-dimensional volumetric reconsolidation settlement (S_V1D), the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI), and two new liquefaction severity indices developed following the major earthquakes in Christchurch, namely the Ishihara inspired LPI (LPI_ISH) and the Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN). To assess the predictive trends of the four severity index frameworks, the H₁–H₂ boundary curves developed by Ishihara (1985) are used as a reference of comparison. In large part, the severity index frameworks serve the same purpose as the Ishihara boundary curves, but they alleviate some of the difficulties in implementing the Ishihara boundary curves for assessing the highly stratified soil profiles that underlie much of Christchurch. A parametric study was performed wherein relatively simple soil profiles are evaluated using all the procedures and contour plots of calculated S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH, and LSN values were superimposed onto the Ishihara boundary curves. The results indicate that the LPI_ISH and LSN indices yield similar trends as the Ishihara boundary curves, whereas the S_V1D and LPI indices do not. Furthermore, little field data is available to assess the severity indices for the scenarios where the trends in the LPI_ISH and LSN indices differ.     

The Dinar Earthquake (Mw = 6.2; October 1, 1995; Afyon-Turkey) and Earthquake Hazard of the Dinar-Çivril Fault

—A moderately strong earthquake (M _w = 6.2) occurred in the town of Dinar at 17.57 UT on October 1, 1995, taking the lives of 90 people and damaging about 4500 buildings. Its epicenter is located near the Dinar-Çivril fault and its focal mechanism is linked to a northeast-southwesterly tensional stress field arising from the interaction between the subducting African plate and the overriding Aegean-Anatolian plate in the eastern Mediterranean.¶Surface cracks of the October 1 earthquake have been observed 10 km continuously along the Dinar-Çivril fault. The cracks have displayed a mode of dip-slip; however, some have also indicated lateral slip. The different modes of slip are generally in agreement with the fault plane solution and are indicators of the complex nature of the rupture process.¶In investigating the earthquake hazard of the Dinar-Çivril fault and proximity, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate seismic hazard parameters of b-value, seismicity activity rate λ _m and the expected maximum magnitude M _max?. The data consisted of the historical data covering the period between 1800–1900 and instrumental data between 1900 and 1992. This method, allowing use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing both historical and instrumental earthquake data, yielded values of 0.70, 1.92 and 7.14 for b, λ _m and M _max?, respectively. The recurrence time estimated for an earthquake of a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 is 123 years. The non-occurrence probabilities of such an earthquake in 1 and 50 years are 0.21 and 0.04, respectively.