Interpretation of probability of landsliding triggered by rainfall

This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management.     

Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpine Slovenia

This paper presents two types of analysis: an antecedent rainfall analysis based on daily rainfall and an intensity-duration analysis of rainfall events based on hourly data in perialpine Slovenia in the ?kofjelo?ko Cerkljansko hills. For this purpose, eight rainfall events that are known to have caused landslides in the period from 1990 to 2010 were studied. Over the observed period, approximately 400 records of landslides were collected. Rainfall data were obtained from three rain gauges. The daily rainfall from the 30 days before landslide events was investigated based on the type of landslides and their geo-environmental setting, the dates of confirmed landslide activity and different consecutive rainfall periods. The analysis revealed that the rainfall events triggering slope failure can be divided into two groups according to the different antecedent periods. The first group of landslides typically occurred after short-duration rainstorms with high intensity, when the daily rainfall exceeded the antecedent rainfall. The second group comprises the rainfall events with a longer antecedent period of at least 7 days. A comparison of the plotted peak and mean intensities indicates that the rainfall patterns that govern slope failure are similar but do not necessarily reflect the rainfall intensity at the time of shallow landslides in the Dav?a or Poljane areas, where the majority of the landslides occurred. Because of several limitations, the suggested threshold cannot be compared and evaluated with other thresholds.     

Bedrock bedding,landsliding and erosional budgets in the Central European Alps

We explore the controls of the litho‐tectonic architecture on the erosional flux in the 370‐km² Glogn basin (European Alps). In this basin, the bedding and schistosity of the bedrock dip parallel to the topographic slope on the NW valley flank, leading to a non‐dip slope situation on the opposite SE valley side. While the dip slope condition has promoted the occurrence of landslides (e.g. the c. 30‐km² deep‐seated Lumnezia landslide), the opposite non‐dip slope side of the valley hosts >100‐m‐deeply incised tributary streams. ¹⁰Be concentrations of stream sediments yield catchment‐averaged denudation rates that vary between 0.27 ± 0.03 and 2.19 ± 0.37 mm a^?1, while the spatially averaged denudation rate of the entire basin is 1.99 ± 0.34 mm a^?1. Our ¹⁰Be‐based approach reveals that the Lumnezia landslide front contributes c. 30–65% of the entire sediment budget, although it covers <5% of the Glogn basin. This suggests a primary control of the bedrock bedding on erosion rates and processes.     

Rifting,recurrent landsliding and Miocene structural reorganization on NW-Tenerife (Canary Islands)

We studied mechanisms of structural destabilization of ocean island flanks by considering the linkage between volcano construction and volcano destruction, exemplified by the composite Teno shield volcano on Tenerife (Canary Islands). During growth, Tenerife episodically experienced giant landslides, genetically associated with rifting and preferentially located between two arms of a three-armed rift system. The deeply eroded late Miocene Teno massif allows insights into the rifting processes, the failure mechanisms and related structures. The semicircular geometry of palaeo-scarps and fracture systems, breccia deposits and the local dike swarm reconfigurations delineate two clear landslide scarp regions. Following an earlier collapse of the older Los Gigantes Formation to the north, the rocks around the scarp became fractured and intruded by dikes. Substantial lava infill and enduring dike emplacement increased the load on the weak scarp and forced the flank to creep again, finally resulting in the collapse of the younger Carrizales Formation. Once more, the changing stress field caused deformation of the nearby rocks, a fracture belt formed around the scarp and dikes intruded into new (concentric) directions. The outline, size and direction of the second failed flank of Teno very much resembles the first collapse. We suggest structural clues concerning mechanisms of recurrent volcano flank failure, verifying the concept that volcano flanks that have failed are prone to collapse again with similar dimensions.     

Evaluation of Hydrological Components Using Hydrological Model SWAT for Malaprabha Subbasin

During the pre-nationalisation period due to unscientific mining, large number of old workings exist below important structures at various coal fields in India. Mostly these old workings exist below National Highways and Railway track. These workings are generally at shallow depth. It has been observed that subsidence and pot holing are common in those areas. As a result the safety of vehicles and passenger trains plying over these areas endangered. Since the old workings are more than 60 years old in most of the cases the proper plan and survey documents are not available. So it is extremely difficult to exactly locate the underground mine workings/galleries/voids from the surface such that precautionary measures can be initiated for the safety of roads and railway tracks. Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) has indicated that there may be some old workings below the national highway (NH-2) near Dalmia colliery of SalanpurArea of ECL. The most sophisticated system, MineVue Radar was used for delineation of abandoned mine workings or mine galleries below NH-2. Two voids of size 1.8 m height at depth of 40 m and another of size 1.35 m height at a depth of 33.5 m were delineated and confirmed using direct core drilling method. After that, Mine management was informed about these voids to take precautionary measures for the safety of NH-2. Thus, this system has played an important role for the safety of important surface structures. This paper deals the application of MineVue radar system for delineation of mine galleries below NH-2.     

水文行业信息化研究

水文学是地球科学的一个分支，水文事业是社会公共信息服务系统的一个部分，作为学科研究的水文，随着信息技术的发，拓展了它的研究内涵，而为社会提供公共信息服务的水文，需要利用信息手段来实现其现代化，水文行业信息化的重点是应用智能化的化的技术和工具来提高信息务的水平，以形成承担支撑社会信息化的历史重任的能力。     

A review of landsliding and coastal erosion damage to historic fortifications in South East England

Coastal fortifications in South East England have been continuously built and rebuilt over the centuries according to the ebb and flow of politics in Europe. This paper covers an extensive historical period from the influx of the Romans to the present day, detailing how landslides and coastal erosion have affected the numerous constructions along this stretch of coastline. Principal landslide-prone strata form extensive sections of this part of the coast with the tendency to be weak and highly susceptible to marine attack and cliff retreat. Fortifications have been built out of necessity in strategic positions without full consideration of the ground upon which they have been constructed. The continual construction of fortifications along this section of coastline constitutes an unparalleled archaeological record, but it is one that is under continuous threat from coastal erosion and landsliding.     

贯彻实施《水文情报预报规范》努力实现水文情报预报现代化

介绍了《水文情报预报规范》修订的缘由和编写过程、修订的主要原则和依据、修订的具体内容以及贯彻实施《水文情报预报规范》工作中应进行的几何工作。     

舟山群岛水文特性

论述了舟山群岛的地形地貌、气候、土壤、植被、水系和河流概况，从降水、蒸发、 径流、地下水、水质、暴雨、干旱、风暴潮等方面分析了舟山群岛的水文特性。     

湿地水空间效应

地球水资源短缺问题日益严重,直接影响自然与经济社会可持续发展.陆地健康水循环和水资源的再生是基于合理的水调节空间.湿地是不可替代的水调节空间,因湿地特殊的水理性质和特有的生物地球化学作用,使湿地具有显著的调蓄地表径流和水体净化功能.人类活动大量破坏湿地,使湿地水空间效应明显下降,极大地削弱了湿地水调节功能.就流域生态、生产、生活用水的协调与保证而言,其合理的湿地配置是解决这一问题的重要基础之一.     

浙江省水文特性分析

浙江省作为水系单独入海的区域,主要受梅雨和台风影响,具有不同于全国其他地区的水文特性.根据浙江省多年水文资料和不断刷新的水文极值,从降水、蒸发、径流、泥沙、水资源及水质等方面对区域水文特性进行了系统分析,并重点介绍了暴雨洪水、台风暴潮等水文要素.     

数据挖掘技术在水文预报中的应用及水文预报发展趋势研究

数据挖掘作为知识发现过程中的重要步骤,是从大型数据库中提取未知的、有价值的和可操作性的关系、模式和趋势用于决策支持的过程。我国目前在防洪领域存在着大量水文数据,如何充分有效地利用各种智能算法对这些数据进行分析与挖掘,以形成相应的水文预报模型进行准确的水文预报是防洪决策支持系统完善和发展的重要方面。本文首先全面地介绍数据挖掘的功能分类及以数据挖掘为基础的水文预报体系,然后对数据挖掘技术在水文预报中的应用进行了探讨和研究。     

水文模型参数区域化研究进展

参数区域化方法是解决资料缺乏地区水文模拟和预报的有效手段,主要包括回归法、空间邻近法和属性相似法三类方法,可将有资料流域的水文模型参数移用到资料缺乏流域。首先回顾了区域化方法的基本原理和应用方法,并分析了三类主要区域化方法的适用性。从流域特征因子、水文模型及参数、不确定性探讨三个方面综述了区域化方法的研究进展。分析发现,当前区域化方法缺乏完善的理论基础,流域特征因子选择存在主观性,水文模型及参数的适用性方面研究不足。最后展望了未来的研究重点：（1）多维度适用性比较;（2）水文过程和参数的空间分布规律;（3）参数的尺度问题;（4）参数区域化的不确定性问题。     

水文多变量趋势分析的应用研究

水文频率分析需要进行一系列的假设,包括一致性、同分布性和独立性。由于水文事件通常都包含多个水文变量,例如洪水过程包含洪峰和洪量,低径流过程包括年最小月径流和年最小3个月径流等,因此近年来多变量水文分析与计算方法在水文领域中得到广泛应用。然而,多变量频率分析并未对上述假设进行检验,而是直接对频率分布进行函数拟合,不能保证得到的频率分布函数符合实际情况。引入水质研究领域内广泛使用的多变量MK检验方法,分别对长江上游干支流主要控制站点的年最大洪峰、年最大7d洪量和年最低月径流、年最低3个月径流的单变量和联合变量进行变化趋势分析。结果表明,单变量趋势分析仅仅能够检验出单个变量的变化趋势,而多变量趋势分析则能够综合检验出联合变量是否存在变化趋势。因此,为保证水文频率分析结果的准确,有必要在进行多变量水文频率分析前对单变量和联合变量进行趋势分析。     

陕西省水文特性

介绍了陕西省的自然地理环境状况,分析了降水、蒸发,径流,暴雨,洪水,洪峰,枯水,泥沙及其水质,水资源等重要项目的水文特性,概括地反映了陕西省水文情势的基本特点和水旱灾害发生的一般规律,并根据水文现象在地域上分布的特征,划分出全省水文分区。     

开都河流域水文特性分析

介绍了开都河流域自然地理概况,并且从该流域的水系分布重点分析了流域的降水分布和径流特性。在水利工程、蒸发、洪水等多个水利水文的相关方面系统分析了开都河的水文特性。同时在分析水文特性的基础上提出了关于相关的分析结论。     

宁夏回族自治区水文特性

宁夏位于西北地区东部,是西部大开发的前沿阵地.宁夏土地面积虽小,但南北跨越5个纬度,各水文要素变化复杂.应用最新的资料,分析了宁夏回族自治区降水、蒸发、径流、暴雨洪水、泥沙、水化学、冰情等水文要素的特性.     

Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展

综述了多变量水文分析计算方法及存在的问题.系统地介绍了Copula函数的基本理论与方法,分析探讨Copula函数在多变量水文计算领域的适用性及优越性.总结了Copula函数应用的关键技术,包括参数估计、拟合检验及类型选择等,并展望了Copula函数的研究应用前景.     

无资料地区水文预报研究的方法与出路

无资料地区的水文研究是最近国际上水资源水环境研究的热点.总结了中国过去在流域洪水预报和设计洪水计算中针对无资料地区研究所取得的相关成果,指出现代水文学应该充分运用新的系统理论和方法,依靠计算机技术和遥感手段,在水文数值模拟方向上寻找无资料地区水文预报的新出路.对无资料地区的水文研究要从有充分实测资料的流域开始,人为隐去部分站点的实测数据以检验依靠剩余少量数据而建成的水文模型的适用性和精度.最后分析了流域分布式水文模型、空间插值、四维同化技术等方法在无资料地区水文预报中的意义和作用.