利用地磁脉动预报地球同步轨道相对论电子通量的方法研究

本文利用低纬地磁台站的Pi1、Pi2地磁脉动（Pi1-2）资料和地球同步轨道的Pc5地磁脉动资料,对2004年1月到2006年12月38个磁暴事件的地磁脉动参数进行了统计分析.在此基础上,考虑相对论电子的局部加速机制,并加入损失机制,建立了一个初步的磁暴期间地球同步轨道相对论电子通量对数值的预报模型.利用该模型,我们对上述38个磁暴事件进行预报试验,最优化结果是：相对论电子通量对数值的预测值和观测值之间的线性相关系数为0.82,预报效率为0.67.这说明该模式具有较好的预报效果,也表明利用地磁脉动参数进行相对论电子通量预报是可行的.     

Prediction of maximal daily average values of relativistic electron fluxes in geostationary orbit during the magnetic storm recovery phase

The relation of the maximal daily average values of the relativistic electron fluxes with an energy higher than 2 MeV, obtained from the measurements on GOES geostationary satellites, during the recovery phase of magnetic storms to the solar wind parameters and magnetospheric activity indices has been considered. The parameters of Pc5 and Pi1 geomagnetic pulsations and the relativistic electron fluxes during the prestorm period and the main phase of magnetic storms have been used together with the traditional indices of geomagnetic activity (A _E, K _p, D _st). A simple model for predicting relativistic electron fluxes has been proposed for the first three days of the magnetic storm recovery phase. The predicted fluxes of the outer radiation belt relativistic electrons well correlate with the observed values (R ∼ 0.8–0.9).     

Indicators of an increase in the flux of relativistic electrons in geostationary orbit during geomagnetic storms

The relation of the fluxes of relativistic electrons in geostationary orbit during magnetic storms to the state of the magnetosphere and variations in the solar wind parameters is studied based on the GOES satellite data (1996–2000). It has been established that, in ～52–65% of all storms, the fluxes of electrons with energies higher than 0.6 and 2 MeV during the storm recovery phase are more than twice as high as the electron fluxes before a storm. It has been indicated that the probability of such cases is closely related to the prestorm level of fluxes and to a decrease in fluxes during the storm main phase. It has been found that the solar wind velocity on the day of the storm main phase and the geomagnetic activity indices at the beginning of the storm recovery phase are also among the best indicators of occurrence of storms with increased fluxes at the storm recovery phase.     

Planetary distribution of geomagnetic pulsations during a geomagnetic storm at solar minimum

We investigate the features of the planetary distribution of wave phenomena (geomagnetic pulsations) in the Earth’s magnetic shell (the magnetosphere) during a strong geomagnetic storm on December 14–15, 2006, which is untypical of the minimum phase of solar activity. The storm was caused by the approach of the interplanetary magnetic cloud towards the Earth’s magnetosphere. The study is based on the analysis of 1-min data of global digital geomagnetic observations at a few latitudinal profiles of the global network of ground-based magnetic stations. The analysis is focused on the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, whose frequencies fall in the band of 1.5–7 mHz (T ～ 2–10 min), on the fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in the solar wind density in this frequency band. It is shown that during the initial phase of the storm with positive IMF Bz, most intense geomagnetic pulsations were recorded in the dayside polar regions. It was supposed that these pulsations could probably be caused by the injection of the fluctuating streams of solar wind into the Earth’s ionosphere in the dayside polar cusp region. The fluctuations arising in the ionospheric electric currents due to this process are recorded as the geomagnetic pulsations by the ground-based magnetometers. Under negative IMF Bz, substorms develop in the nightside magnetosphere, and the enhancement of geomagnetic pulsations was observed in this latitudinal region on the Earth’s surface. The generation of these pulsations is probably caused by the fluctuations in the field-aligned magnetospheric electric currents flowing along the geomagnetic field lines from the substorm source region. These geomagnetic pulsations are not related to the fluctuations in the interplanetary medium. During the main phase of the magnetic storm, when fluctuations in the interplanetary medium are almost absent, the most intense geomagnetic pulsations were observed in the dawn sector in the region corresponding to the closed magnetosphere. The generation of these pulsations is likely to be associated with the resonance of the geomagnetic field lines. Thus, it is shown that the Pc5 pulsations observed on the ground during the magnetic storm have a different origin and a different planetary distribution.     

Geophysical effects of the interplanetary magnetic cloud on October 18–19, 1995, as deduced from observations at Irkutsk

During an interaction of the Earth’s magnetosphere with the interplanetary magnetic cloud on October 18–19, 1995, a great magnetic storm took place. Extremely intense disturbances of the geomagnetic field and ionosphere were recorded at the midlatitude observatory at Irkutsk (Φ′≈45°, Λ′≈177°, L≈2) in the course of the storm. The most important storm features in the ionosphere and magnetic field are: a significant decrease in the geomagnetic field Z component during the storm main phase; unusually large amplitudes of geomagnetic pulsations in the Pi1 frequency band; extremely low values of critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2-layer; an appearance of intense E_s-layers similar to auroral sporadic layers at the end of the recovery phase. These magnetic storm manifestations are typical for auroral and subauroral latitudes but are extremely rare in middle latitudes. We analyze the storm-time midlatitude phenomena and attempt to explore the magnetospheric storm processes using the data of ground observations of geomagnetic pulsations. It is concluded that the dominant mechanism responsible for the development of the October 18–19, 1995 storm is the quasi-stationary transport of plasma sheet particles up to L≈2 shells rather than multiple substorm injections of plasma clouds into the inner magnetosphere.     

地磁场结构对静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布的影响

基于AE8电子辐射带模式和各地磁场模式,本文系统分析了地磁场模式、太阳风、地磁扰动、地磁轴指向对静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布的影响以及静止轨道不同经度位置≥2 MeV高能电子分布的差异,并与GOES系列卫星实测结果进行了对比分析.结果表明,AE8+IGRF+T96模式所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布结果优于AE8+IGRF+OPQ77模式或AE8+IGRF+T89模式结果,其大部分定性结果与GOES系列卫星观测结果较为一致,AE8+IGRF+T96模式所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布与磁壳参量Lm、局地磁场B分别呈较好的负和正相关性.基于AE8+IGRF+T96模式得到在相同太阳风及地磁扰动条件下2010年每分钟静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子通量分布结果,经分析得到：1年内每个时刻静止轨道上≥2 MeV高能电子通量最大值和最小值比值变化范围为2.50~7.51,变化主周期为1天,每天比值变化量都超过3;1年内静止轨道各经度位置每天内≥2 MeV高能电子通量最大值和最小值比值变化范围为2.98~6.00,比值随着时间和经度位置而变化;1年内同一天静止轨道各经度位置≥2 MeV高能电子日积分通量最大值出现在170°W附近,最小值出现在70°W附近,最大值与最小值的比值分布在1.86~2.13之间.以上所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布变化主要来自Lm变化,B/B₀的影响小于5%,其中B₀为磁力线上磁场最小值.因此,在构建≥2 MeV高能电子分布模式时,需要考虑地磁场结构的影响,特别是Lm参数.     

On the prediction of relativistic electron fluence based on its relationship with geomagnetic activity over a solar cycle

A study has been carried out to determine the relationship between high energy relativistic (>2 MeV) electron fluence and auroral zone geomagnetic activity for a solar cycle. Data for 1987–1997, spanning Solar Cycle 22, were used in the study. The relativistic electron fluence data were based on fluxes observed by the GOES geosynchronous satellites. The geomagnetic data were the DRX indices derived from a Canadian magnetic observatory located in the auroral zone at Fort Churchill, near the footprint of field lines passing through geostationary satellites. This work, based on data from a solar cycle, confirms earlier findings using limited data from segments of a solar cycle of enhancement in fluence 2–3 days after increases in geomagnetic activity, and shows the cycle dependence of fluence with respect to geomagnetic activity. This study underlines the influence of recurrent coronal holes on fluence level as well as the possible role of Pc5 magnetic pulsations as an electron acceleration mechanism, and highlights the predictability of fluence from ground geomagnetic data. A fluence prediction algorithm can now solely be based on derived expressions relating fluence and DRX. Thus, a simple fluence prediction scheme can easily be implemented to provide a 2–3 day advance warning of space weather conditions hazardous to geosynchronous satellites, since during days of high fluence, the likelihood of internal charging in a satellite is high, with possible discharges that could result in satellite operational anomalies. For verification purpose, daily values of fluence for 1997–2000 and for January 1994 were postcast using the derived expressions. The postcast values were validated, and the results give credence to the fluence prediction scheme.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Generation of magnetic field Pc5 pulsations and particle fluxes during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm on October 31, 2003

The spatial structure of intensive Pc5 pulsations of the geomagnetic field and riometer absorption during the recovery phase of a strong magnetic storm that occurred on October 31, 2003, have been considered in detail. The global structure of disturbances has been analyzed based on a global network of magnetometers and riometers supplemented by the data of magnotometers and particle detectors on geostationary satellites GOES and LANL. The local spatial structure was studied by the data of a regional network of Finland vertical riometers and the stations at the IMAGE magnetic network. Quasiperiodic variations in the magnetic field and riometer absorption are generally similar and have a close frequency composition; nevertheless, their local spatial structures are different, as a result of which the concept that riometer absorption pulsations represent a purely modulation process is doubtful. It is assumed that the observed variations are oscillations of two related systems: the magnetospheric MHD waveguide/resonator and systems including cyclotron noise and electrons. Geomagnetic Pc5 oscillations during the recovery phase of a strong magnetic storm supposedly result from the generation of the magnetospheric waveguide on magnetospheric flanks. An analysis of azimuthal propagation phase velocities indicates that these oscillations depend on intramagnetospheric parameters rather than on the solar wind velocity. The magnetospheric waveguide is in a metastable state when solar wind velocities are high, and the quasiperiodic fluctuations of the solar wind pressure stimulate the excitation of the waveguide.     

中低纬地区地磁脉动的研究

近年来我们对中低纬地区地磁脉动进行了大量的观测和研究。本文不仅介绍了观测仪器的设计、台网设置及数据处理方法。而且还简要地介绍了一些主要科研成果,如低纬Pc3脉动特点,低纬Pi2脉动偏振特性。南极地区的地磁脉动观测结果,以及在磁暴和太阳耀斑期间在低纬地区观测的地磁脉动。这对于进一步认识中低纬地区地磁脉动是十分有益的。     

行星际扰动和地磁活动对GEO相对论电子影响

利用1988—2010年小时平均的GOES卫星数据,对地球同步轨道(GEO)相对论电子变化进行了统计分析,研究了相对论电子通量(Fe)增强事件的发展过程,探讨了利于相对论电子通量增强的太阳风和地磁活动条件.主要结论如下:(1)GEO相对论电子通量即使是峰值,也具有明显的地方时特性,最大电子通量出现在磁正午时.午/夜电子通量比率随着太阳风速度(Vsw)增加而增大;在Dst-50nT时相对论电子具有规则的地方时变化.在太阳活动下降相,电子通量与各参数的相关性较好,与其相关性最好的Vsw、Kp指数以及三次根号下的太阳风密度(N)分别出现在电子通量前39~57h、57~80h和12~24h.(2)强(日平均电子通量峰值Femax≥104 pfu)相对论电子事件,在距离太阳活动谷年前两年左右和春秋分期间发生率最高,较弱(104Femax≥103 pfu)事件无此特点;大部分强相对论电子事件中,电子通量在磁暴主相开始增加,较弱事件中则在恢复相开始回升.(3)太阳风密度变化对相对论电子事件的发展具有重要指示作用.电子通量在太阳风密度极大值后0~1天达到极小值,太阳风密度极小值后0~2天达到极大值.(4)90%以上相对论电子事件是在磁暴及高速太阳风的条件下发生的,与其伴随的行星际参数和地磁活动指数极值满足以下条件:Vswmax516km/s,Dstmin-31nT,Nmin2.8cm-3,Nmax14.1cm-3,Bzmin-2.9nT,AEmax698nT.(5)磁暴过程中,Dstmin后日平均电子通量大于103 pfu的发生概率为53%左右,强/弱相对论电子事件占总数比例分别为36%/64%左右,磁暴强度对其无影响.磁暴过程中的Vsw、N和AE指数大小对于能否引起相对论电子增强起着指示作用.     

Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations as a potential hazard of the myocardial infarction

The analysis of 85,800 events (1979–1981) of Moscow ambulance calls, related to the myocardial infarction (MI), demonstrates a seasonal variation with the profound summer minima and winter maxima. Similar results were obtained by analyzing the 25-year (1970–1995) statistical monthly data on the death from infarction in Bulgaria. The estimated high correlation coefficient (0.84) between Moscow and Bulgarian data suggests a common reason. There is a great number of clinical and statistical studies confirming that the MI number rises during geomagnetic disturbances, which have a maximum of occurrence near equinox, not in winter. In order to explain this contradiction we suggest that one of the critical additional factors, which affect a human cardiovascular system, could be geomagnetic Pc1 pulsations at frequencies comparable with the human heart beat rate. The MI variations as well as the Pc1 pulsations exhibit a summer minimum. The comparative analysis of the Moscow ambulance MI data and Pc1 pulsations recorded at the geophysical observatory in Borok is presented. It is shown that in about 70% of the days when an anomalously great number of ambulance calls (AMI) has been registered Pc1 pulsations have been recorded. In the winter season the probability of the simultaneous AMI and Pc1 occurrence was 1.5 times larger than their accidental coincidence. Moreover, it was found that the effects of magnetic storms and Pc1 in AMI were much higher in winter than in summer. We suggest that the seasonal variation of the production of the pineal hormone melatonin leads to a winter instability in the human organisms and increases the sensitivity of the patient to the “negative” influence of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations in winter.     

Unusual spatial-temporal dynamics of geomagnetic disturbances during the main phase of the extremely strong magnetic storm of November 7–8, 2004

The spatial dynamics of geomagnetic variations and pulsations, auroras, and riometer absorption during the development of the main phase of the extremely strong magnetic storm of November 7–8, 2004, has been studied. It has been indicated that intense disturbances were observed in the early morning sector of auroral latitudes rather than in the nighttime sector, as usually takes place during magnetic storms. The unusual spatial dynamics was revealed at the beginning of the storm main phase. A rapid poleward expansion of disturbances from geomagnetic latitudes of 65°–66° to 74°–75° and the development of the so-called polar cap substorm with a negative bay amplitude of up to 2500 nT, accompanied by precipitation of energetic electrons (riometer absorption) and generation of Pi2–Pi3 pulsations, were observed when IMF B _z was about ?45 nT. The geomagnetic activity maximum subsequently sharply shifted equatorward to 60°–61°. The spatial dynamics of the westward electrojet, Pi2–Pi3 geomagnetic pulsations, and riometer absorption was similar, which can indicate that the source of these phenomena is common.     

The recovery phase of the superstrong magnetic storm of July 15–17, 2000: Substorms and ULF pulsations

The geomagnetic observations, performed at the global network of ground-based observatories during the recovery phase of the superstrong magnetic storm of July 15–17, 2000 (Bastille Day Event, Dst = ?301 nT), have been analyzed. It has been indicated that magnetic activity did not cease at the beginning of the storm recovery phase but abruptly shifted to polar latitudes. Polar cap substorms were accompanied by the development of intense geomagnetic pulsations in the morning sector of auroral latitudes. In this case oscillations at frequencies of 1–2 and 3–4 mHz were observed at geomagnetic latitudes higher and lower than ～62°, respectively. It has been detected that the spectra of variations in the solar wind dynamic pressure and the amplitude spectra of geomagnetic pulsations on the Earth’s surface were similar. Wave activity unexpectedly appeared in the evening sector of auroral latitudes after the development of near-midnight polar substorms. It has been established that the generation of Pc5 pulsations (in this case at frequencies of 3–4 mHz) was spatially asymmetric about noon during the late stage of the recovery phase of the discussed storm as took place during the recovery phase of the superstrong storms of October and November 2003. Intense oscillations were generated in the morning sector at the auroral latitudes and in the postnoon sector at the subauroral and middle latitudes. The cause of such an asymmetry, typical of the recovery phase of superstrong magnetic storms, remains unknown.     

Variations in the ULF index of geomagnetic pulsations during strong magnetic storms

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning, afternoon, and nighttime sectors during strong magnetic storms with Dst varying from ?100 to ?150 nT has been statistically studied based on a new ULF wave index. It has been found out that the intensity of geomagnetic pulsations at frequencies of 2–7 mHz during the magnetic storm initial phase is maximal in the morning and nighttime sectors at polar and auroral latitudes, respectively. During the magnetic storm main phase, wave activity is maximal in the morning sector of the auroral zone, and the pulsation intensity in the nighttime sector is twice as low as in the morning sector. It has been indicated that geomagnetic pulsations excited after substorms mainly contribute to a morning wave disturbance during the magnetic storm main phase. During the storm recovery phase, wave activity develops in the morning and nighttime sectors of the auroral zone; in this case nighttime activity is also observed in the subauroral zone.     

Relativistic electron enhancements,magnetic storms,and substorm activity

The relativistic electron fluxes of the Earth's outer radiation belt are subjected to strong temporal variations. The most prominent changes are initiated by fast solar wind streams impinging upon the magnetosphere, which often also cause enhanced substorm activity and magnetic storms. Using 4 years of data from the particle detector REM aboard the UK satellite Strv-1b in a GTO, we investigated the relation between these different appearances of geomagnetic activity. A typical sequence is that there is a drop in the relativistic electron intensity during the main phase of the magnetic storm and a successive enhancement during the recovery phase which sometimes leads to much higher than pre-storm fluxes. Whereas the flux drop is well correlated with the magnetic storm intensity and is mainly due to the deceleration and loss of particles caused by the ring-current-induced magnetic field changes, there is only a bad correlation between the post-storm electron flux and Dst. As we show here, it is much more the level of substorm activity during the whole event which determines the size of the flux enhancements.     

Analysis on observational results of Pi2 geomagnetic pulsation in Henan region

IntroductionThere are many kinds of fluctuations in magnetosphere plasma, frequencies concerned are ofa broad range (10--3~106 Hi). Except for electro-magnetic waves (whistled, hydromagnetic wave Alven wave), there is static electric wave mode (plasma wave -- election acoustic wave, ionacoustic wave). Among them, a main fluctuation of hydromagnetic wave phenomena is geomagnetic pulsation. Dungey (1954) believed at first in 1954 that this kind of pulsations can be attributed to hydromagnetic w…     

Temporal characteristics and medical aspects of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations

This paper is devoted to the morphology of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations (frequency range 0.2–5.0 Hz). This study is based on the series of continuous observations of Pc1 pulsations during more than three solar cycles (July 1957–December 1995). The main attention is given to the temporal characteristics of Pc1 activity, i.e. daily, seasonal and cyclic variations, and also the relationship of Pc1 activity with magnetic storms, sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and parameters of the solar wind. The results may be used in the studies of medicobiologic aspects of the problem of solar–terrestrial relations.     

Precipitation of energetic electrons and Pi3 geomagnetic pulsations at polar latitudes

Precipitation of electrons with energies of 0.3–1.5 MeV has been analyzed based on the CORONAL-F satellite data at polar latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere on December 13, 2003. The instants of electron precipitation have been compared with the ground-based observations of geomagnetic disturbances and auroras near the satellite orbit projection. It has been indicated that precipitation of energetic electrons in the high-latitude nightside sector is accompanied by the simultaneous development of bay-like magnetic field disturbances on the Earth’s surface and the appearance of riometer absorption bursts and Pi3 geomagnetic pulsations, and auroras.     

Outer radiation belt of relativistic electrons during the minimum of the 23rd solar cycle

The data on fluxes of electrons with energy Ee > 1 MeV and on radiation doses under the Al shielding of about 2 g/cm² measured on the GLONASS satellite (circular orbit with altitude 20000 km and inclination 65°) for the period from December 2006 through May 2010 are analyzed. The minimum of the 23rd solar cycle turned out to be the longest for all over the space exploration age. Consequently, average semiannual electron fluxes and daily radiation doses are showing the decrease by more than an order of magnitude in comparison with the levels observed in 2007. We present an example of a diffusion wave of relativistic electrons; the wave develops in a period between magnetic storms. This process may result in a significant increase of the radiation dose measured in the orbit, even under the conditions of weak geomagnetic disturbances. The dynamics of variations in relativistic electron fluxes during the magnetic storm of April 5?C6, 2010, is discussed so far as this is the first strong flux enhancement in the 24th solar cycle.