Water Quality Management Based on Division of Dry and Wet Seasons in Pearl River Delta,China

In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), river water quality deteriorates continually due to the population increase and ongoing industrialization and urbanization. In this study, a water quality management paradigm based on the seasonal variation is proposed. For better exploring the seasonal change of water quality, wavelet analysis was used to analyze the division of dry and wet seasons in the PRD during 1952–2009. Then water quality seasonal variation in 2008 and relevant impact factors were analyzed by multivariate statistic methods as a case to make some management measures. The results show that there are some differences of dry and wet seasons division among different years. Wet season mainly appear from April to September, which occupy the largest proportion among the 58 years (about 70%) and then followed by the wet season from May to October (about 13.8% of the total years). As to the water quality of 2008, significant differences exist between dry and wet seasons for 17 water quality parameters except TP, , Fe²⁺, and Zn²⁺. Levels of parameters pH, EC, COD_Mn, BOD₅, , , and Cl^? in dry season are much higher than those in wet season. In dry season the variations of river water quality are mainly influenced by domestic sewage, industrial effluents, and salt water intrusion. While in wet season, except the aforementioned pollution sources, drainages from cultivated land and livestock farm are also the main factors influencing water pollution. Thus, water quality management measures are proposed in dry and wet seasons, respectively. The results obtained from this study would further facilitate water quality protection and water resources management in the PRD.     

Vadose zone modeling of dispersed waste sites in the framework of an integrated stochastic environmental transport and impacts assessment code for the Hanford Site

The system assessment capability (SAC) is the first total-system stochastic simulator to address inventory distribution, environmental release and transport, and impacts to human health and ecological, economic, and cultural resources from hundreds of radiological and chemical waste disposal sites for the entire Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. Flow and contaminant transport modeling in the vadose zone at 720 individual sites has been integrated into the SAC stochastic software framework using the STOMP code, providing the means to define release to the regional aquifer to support the SAC groundwater transport model. Important features, events, and processes including remedial actions, time-variant natural infiltration rates, and high volume aqueous-phase discharges were addressed in the software and data. A separate data extraction program, VZGRAB, was developed to enable analysts to aggregate vadose zone release data across the hundreds of waste sites in various ways following a SAC simulation to develop an improved understanding of the system performance and uncertainty aspects.     

Texas environmental flow standards and the hydrology-based environmental flow regime methodology

Abstract

In 2007, the Texas legislature created a program to identify environmental flow standards statewide through the coordinated efforts of scientific and stakeholder groups and rulemaking by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. To aid in this task, a Hydrology-based Environmental Flow Regime (HEFR) method was developed that combines a suite of user-customizable hydrologic statistics with an implementation framework. Following the concepts of the Natural Flow Paradigm, the methodology includes the separation of a long-term hydrograph into key flow components (e.g. subsistence, base, high-flow pulse and overbank) defined by the Texas Instream Flow Program. Seasonal, annual and inter-annual flow component statistics were then coupled with biology, water quality and geomorphology overlays, where available, and with implementation rules applied to example large-scale water supply projects to support development of environmental flow standards for use in water rights permit conditions. The HEFR methodology and resulting flow recommendations are compared to two contemporary in-stream flow studies and adopted environmental flow standards. Subsistence flows were fairly similar. Baseflows were in a similar range, but fewer than three seasonal levels have sometimes been specified in in-stream flow studies. Episodic events are quite different in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration and applicable number.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Opdyke, D.R., Oborny, E.L., Vaugh, S.K., and Mayes, K.B., 2014. Texas environmental flow standards and the hydrology-based environmental flow regime methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 820–830.     

Selection of spectrum- and seismo-compatible accelerograms for the Tuscany region in Central Italy

This article illustrates the results of a study aimed at developing a methodology for the automatic identification of the seismic input at outcropping rock sites and flat topographic conditions necessary to carry out non-linear dynamic analysis of structures and geotechnical systems. The seismic input is provided in terms of a set of 7 natural accelerograms recorded on outcropping rock and satisfying the average spectral compatibility requirements prescribed by the Italian seismic code (NTC08).The study focuses on the territory encompassing Tuscany region in Central Italy and it has been carried out for six return periods, which are 50, 75, 101, 475, 712 and 949 years. The procedure involved four main steps: (1) grouping of the response spectra with similar features; (2) definition of the reference response spectrum for each group; (3) selection of spectrum-compatible accelerograms using the reference response spectrum of each group; and (4) linear scaling of the accelerograms to satisfy the compatibility requirement with respect to other response spectra of the group. The last step is implemented through an interactive, user-friendly program named SCALCONA 2.0, which provides the seismic input in agreement with the site location and return period specified by the user. The program is freely available at the following web site: http://www.rete.toscana.it/sett/pta/sismica/01informazione/banchedati/input_sismici/progettazione/index.htm.     

A revisit of NRCS-CN inspired models coupled with RS and GIS for runoff estimation

The Natural Resource Conservation Service – Curve Number (NRCS-CN) methodology is a widely used tool for estimating surface runoff, which is of prime importance in hydrological engineering, agricultural planning and management, environmental impact assessment, flood forecasting, and others fields. This article reviews the methodology and associated hydrological models used for runoff estimation along with their advantages and limitations. Furthermore, discussion focuses on the potential applications of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for estimating hydrological variables, such as rainfall, soil moisture and CN required for the NRCS-CN methodology, as well as future research and opportunities for improved runoff estimation at the macro scale.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis     

Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.     

Biological effects in the management of chemicals in the marine environment

Coastal ecosystems are impacted by many stressors, of which chemicals are possibly not the most important. Chemicals differ from most other stressors such as eutrophication and hypersedimentation in the time scale-effects from the latter act on the scale of weeks or months, whereas effects from chemicals may take years to manifest themselves in population or community changes. There are four different approaches available to manage chemicals in marine ecosystems: target contaminant levels, target individual effects, target community impacts (biodiversity) and, finally, target processes. These four differ in the analytical methods available and the analyst's ability to separate effects from chemicals from other environmental factors and natural variation. There is furthermore, a need to develop a framework to integrate biological effects methods with risk assessment methodology. Such integration will improve the basis for risk-based assessment of chemicals. A problematic issue relevant to all aspects of environmental management are the interactions between chemicals, and between chemicals and eutrophication or sedimentation. There is a clear need for more knowledge about such interactions.     

Incorporating the LCIA concept into fuzzy risk assessment as a tool for environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedural tool for environmental management that identifies, predicts, evaluates and mitigates the environmental impact of development proposals. In the process of EIA, EIA reports, prepared by developers, are expected to delineate the environmental impact, but in practice they usually determine whether the amounts or concentrations of pollutants comply with the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can improve the analysis of environmental impact in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA that takes account of the causal relationships between environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the concept of LCIA into an ERA as an integrated tool for the preparation of EIA reports extends the focus of the reports from the regulatory compliance of the environmental impact, to determine the significance of the environmental impact. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations, because of a lack of sufficient information; therefore, so ERA should be generalized to a fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Therefore, this paper proposes the integration of a LCIA and a FRA as an assessment tool for the preparation of EIA reports, whereby the LCIA clearly identifies the causal linkage for hazard–pathway–receptor–damage and then better explain the significance of the impact; furthermore, a FRA copes with fuzzy and probabilistic situations in the assessment of pollution severity and the estimation of exposure probability. Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in a case study of the expansion plan for the world’s largest plastics processing factory.     

Engineering-geological substantiation of water resource protection in the zones of oil and gas fields

The hydrochemical background and the specific features of pollution of geological environmental components by hydrocarbons and chemical components in the industrial sites of oil and gas fields is characterized for two types of natural-anthropogenic environments with different hydrogeological conditions. A methodology is proposed for comprehensive environmental-hydrogeological studies for the development of information support for the assessment of the hazard and risk for the environmental conditions, organization of complex environmental monitoring, and projecting of measures for protection of water resources.     

Geostatistical modelling of ground conditions to support the assessment of site contamination

The pattern of ground contamination across a site depends on the historical pattern of contaminant releases at the surface and the redistribution and the fate of contaminants below the surface. Using these concepts a new site assessment approach (assessment modelling) is proposed based on the development of three stochastic models: a model of the physical structure of the ground materials beneath the site; a model of the distribution of surface contaminant spills; and a model of the flow and transport of spilled material into the heterogeneous underlying ground to construct alternative, equally likely, present day contaminant distributions. Combining the models within a Monte Carlo framework can, in principle, improve the understanding of the potential for excess contamination across the site and improve decisions on remediation options and locations. A trial application has been undertaken in the UK using a particular site to assess the approach. The conditions at the site used for the trial and the first of the stochastic model developments, the geostatistical modelling of the soil heterogeneity, are presented in this paper. Non-parametric and parametric geostatistics have been employed to formulate the geostatistical models of the site soils using lithological information from 146 trial pits and boreholes. The approach to the soil modelling and the verification and validation of the results are described. The heterogeneity of the subsurface is complicated by the presence of made-ground, comprised of various inert building wastes, and the non-stationarity of the heterogeneity of the natural ground. This paper is the first of three describing the assessment modelling methodology and its trial application to the site.     

Radiation belt modelling in the framework of space weather effects and forecasting

The Earth's trapped radiation belts were discovered at the beginning of the space age and were immediately recognised as a considerable hazard to space missions. Consequently, considerable effort was invested in building models of the trapped proton and electron populations, culminating in the NASA AP-8 and AE-8 models which have been de facto standards since the 1970s. The CRRES mission has demonstrated that the trapped radiation environment is much more complex than the static environment described by the old models. Spatial and especially temporal variations were shown to be much more important than previously thought, and to require more complex models than those in use at that time. Such models are now becoming available, but they are as yet limited in spatial and temporal coverage. It is vital to coordinate future modelling efforts in order to develop new standard models.The lack of standardisation of radiation belt models complicates their use in engineering applications where particle fluxes are needed as input to radiation effects models. ESA's SPace ENVironment Information System (SPENVIS) provides standardised access to models of the hazardous space environment, including but not limited to radiation effects, through a user-friendly World Wide Web interface. The interface includes parameter input with extensive defaulting, definition of user environments, streamlined production of results (both in graphical and textual form), background information, and on-line help. The system can be accessed at the WWW site http://www.spenvis.oma.be/spenvis/. SPENVIS Is designed to help spacecraft engineers perform rapid analyses of environmental problems and, with extensive documentation and tutorial information, allows engineers with relatively little familiarity to produce reliable results. It has been developed in response to the increasing pressure for rapid-response tools for system engineering, especially in low-cost commercial and educational programmes.     

Probability-credibility health risk assessment under uncertain environment

The ability to describe variables in a health risk model through probability theory enables us to estimate human health risk. These types of risk assessment are interpreted as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Generally, PRA requires specific estimate of the parameters of the probability density of the input variables. In all circumstances, such estimates of the parameters may not be available due to the lack of knowledge or information. Such types of variables are treated as uncertain variables. These types of information are often termed uncertainty which are interpreted through fuzzy theory. The ability to describe uncertainty through fuzzy set theory enables us to process both random variable and fuzzy variable in a single framework. The method of processing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into a same framework is coined as hybrid method. In this paper, we are going to talk about such type of hybrid methodology for human health risk assessment. Risk assessment on human health through different pathways of exposure has been attempted many a times combining Monte Carlo analysis and extension principle of fuzzy set theory. The emergence of credibility theory enables transforming fuzzy variable into credibility distribution function which can be used in those hybrid analyses. Hence, an attempt, for the first time, has been made to combine probability theory and credibility theory to estimate risk in human health exposure. This method of risk assessment in the presence of credibility theory and probability theory is identified as probabilistic-credibility method (PCM). The results obtained are then interpreted through probability theory, unlike the other hybrid methodology where the results are interpreted in terms of possibility theory. The results obtained are then compared with probability-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA) method. Generally, decision under hybrid methodology is made on the index of optimism. An optimistic decision maker estimates from the \(\alpha\)-cut at 1, whereas a pessimistic decision maker estimates from the \(\alpha\)-cut at 0. The PCM is an optimistic approach as the decision is always made at \(\alpha\)=1.     

Simplified seismic performance assessment and implications for seismic design

The last decade or so has seen the development of refined performance-based earthquake engineering(PBEE) approaches that now provide a framework for estimation of a range of important decision variables,such as repair costs,repair time and number of casualties. This paper reviews current tools for PBEE,including the PACT software,and examines the possibility of extending the innovative displacement-based assessment approach as a simplified structural analysis option for performance assessment. Details of the displacement-based s+eismic assessment method are reviewed and a simple means of quickly assessing multiple hazard levels is proposed. Furthermore,proposals for a simple definition of collapse fragility and relations between equivalent single-degree-of-freedom characteristics and multi-degree-of-freedom story drift and floor acceleration demands are discussed,highlighting needs for future research. To illustrate the potential of the methodology,performance measures obtained from the simplified method are compared with those computed using the results of incremental dynamic analyses within the PEER performance-based earthquake engineering framework,applied to a benchmark building. The comparison illustrates that the simplified method could be a very effective conceptual seismic design tool. The advantages and disadvantages of the simplified approach are discussed and potential implications of advanced seismic performance assessments for conceptual seismic design are highlighted through examination of different case study scenarios including different structural configurations.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution

High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities. Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection, prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility. This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO₂ in the ambient environment, examination of SO₂ concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental management and urban planning.     

Biomarkers and environmental risk assessment: guiding principles from the human health field

Although the potential use of biomarkers within environmental risk assessment (ERA) has long been recognised their routine use is less advanced compared with clinical human health risk assessment, where a number of familiar biomarkers (such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol) are in common usage. We have examined how biomarkers are incorporated into human health risk assessment and have identified several 'required elements'. These include identification of the (clinical) assessment endpoint at the outset, rational selection of the biomarker(s) (the measurement endpoint), biomarker 'validation' (e.g. QA/QC) and biomarker 'qualification' (evidence linking the measurement and assessment endpoints). We discuss these elements in detail and propose that their adoption will facilitate the routine use of biomarkers in environmental risk assessment. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the need for cooperation between those working with biomarkers within human and environmental risk assessment to exchange best practice between common disciplines for mutual advantage.     

Field testing and analysis of high speed rail vibrations

This paper outlines an experimental analysis of ground-borne vibration levels generated by high speed rail lines on various earthwork profiles (at-grade, embankment, cutting and overpass). It also serves to provide access to a dataset of experimental measurements, freely available for download by other researchers working in the area of railway vibration (e.g. for further investigation and/or the validation of vibration prediction models).First, the work outlines experimental investigations undertaken on the Belgian high speed rail network to investigate the vibration propagation characteristics of three different embankment conditions. The sites consist of a 5.5 m high embankment, an at-grade section and a 7.2 m deep cutting. The soil material properties of each site are determined using a ‘Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves’ technique and verified using refraction analysis. It is shown that all sites have relatively similar material properties thus enabling a generalised comparison.Vibration levels are measured in three directions, up to 100 m from the track due to three different train types (Eurostar, TGV and Thalys) and then analysed statistically. It is found that contrary to commonly accepted theory, vertical vibrations are not always the most dominant, and that horizontal vibrations should also be considered, particularly at larger offsets. It is also found that the embankment earthworks profile produced the lowest vibration levels and the cutting produced the highest. Furthermore, a low (positive) correlation between train speed and vibration levels was found. A selection of the results can be downloaded from www.davidpconnolly.com.     

Measuring and monitoring persistent organic pollutants in the context of risk assessment

Due to growing concerns regarding persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment, extensive studies and monitoring programs have been carried out in the last two decades to determine their concentrations in water, sediment, and more recently, in biota. An extensive review and analysis of the existing literature shows that whilst the vast majority of these efforts either attempt to compare (a) spatial changes (to identify "hot spots"), or (b) temporal changes to detect deterioration/improvement occurring in the environment, most studies could not provide sufficient statistical power to estimate concentrations of POPs in the environment and detect spatial and temporal changes. Despite various national POPs standards having been established, there has been a surprising paucity of emphasis in establishing accurate threshold concentrations that indicate potential significant threats to ecosystems and public health. Although most monitoring programs attempt to check compliance through reference to certain "environmental quality objectives", it should be pointed out that many of these established standards are typically associated with a large degree of uncertainty and rely on a large number of assumptions, some of which may be arbitrary. Non-compliance should trigger concern, so that the problem can be tracked down and rectified, but non-compliance must not be interpreted in a simplistic and mechanical way. Contaminants occurring in the physical environment may not necessarily be biologically available, and even when they are bioavailable, they may not necessarily elicit adverse biological effects at the individual or population levels. As such, we here argue that routine monitoring and reporting of abiotic and biotic POPs concentrations could be of limited use, unless such data can be related directly to the assessment of public health and ecological risks. Risk can be inferred from the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) and the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). Currently, the paucity of data does not allow accurate estimation of PNEC, and future endeavors should therefore, be devoted to determine the threshold concentrations of POPs that can cause undesirable biological effects on sensitive receivers and important biological components in the receiving environment (e.g. keystone species, populations with high energy flow values, etc.), to enable derivation of PNECs based on solid scientific evidence and reduce uncertainty. Using the threshold body burden of POPs required to elicit damages of lysosomal integrity in the green mussel (Perna virvidis) as an example, we illustrate how measurement of POPs in body tissue could be used in predicting environmental risk in a meaningful way.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.     

Intelligent data fusion for wide-area assessment of UXO contamination

The remediation of sites contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains an area of intense focus for the Department of Defense. Under the sponsorship of SERDP, data fusion techniques are being developed for use in enhancing wide-area assessment UXO remediation efforts and a data fusion framework is being created to provide a cohesive data management and decision-making utility to allow for more efficient expenditure of time, labor and resources. An important first step in this work is the development of feature extraction utilities and feature probability density maps for eventual input to data fusion algorithms, making data fusion of estimates of data quality, UXO-related features, non-UXO backgrounds, and correlations among independent data streams possible. Utilizing data acquired during ESTCP’s Wide-Area Assessment Pilot Program, the results presented here successfully demonstrate the feasibility of automated feature extraction from light detection and ranging, orthophotography, and helicopter magnetometry wide-area assessment survey data acquired at the Pueblo Precision Bombing Range #2. These data were imported and registered to a common survey map grid and UXO-related features were extracted and utilized to construct survey site-wide probability density maps that are well-suited for input to higher level data fusion algorithms. Preliminary combination of feature maps from the various data sources yielded maps for the Pueblo site that offered a more accurate UXO assessment than any one data source alone.