关于三次观测站02时地面温度计算的探讨

在气象观测规范107页和新规范111页规定无自记仪器的项目,三次观测站02时地面温度应用(当日地面最低温度 前一日20时地面温度)÷2求得。在以往的工作中,发现在特殊的天气条件下,利用规范规定计算出的02时地面温度低于当日夜间地面最低温度,有些还低的很多,通过对乌伊岭气象站和铁力气象站历年资料的统计,发现这种情况普遍存在。     

前言——写在中国科学院大气物理研究所80周年华诞之际

我们组织出版这本专刊是为了隆重庆祝中国科学院大气物理研究所成立80周年。在80年的光辉历程中,经过几代人的共同奋斗,大气物理研究所从1928年成立的中央研究院气象研究所已经发展成为我国大气科学研究领域的综合研究机构。80年来,大气物理研究所为我国的社会发展、国防安全和     

上海浦东地区"梅雨期"降水及其多尺度时频特征

提出了浦东地区"梅雨期"降水的概念.在此基础上,利用小波变换分析了浦东地区"梅雨期"降水的多尺度时频特征及其突变现象.结果表明:浦东地区6月1日-7月10日期间的降水序列能更加客观地反映该地区春末夏初这一特殊的"梅雨期"降水量的实际状况;浦东地区"梅雨期"降水存在准2a和10～20a的主要振荡周期;利用小波逆变换重构的不同振荡周期的时间序列能更好地反映原序列的主要周期振荡特征及其趋势信息.     

南京大气混浊度的初步探讨

日辐射能的测量最普通的有两种:其一是对正的,就是受热仪器正对日光时单位黑体面积所受到的能量;其二是水平单位黑体地面所受到的全热量,就是包括正射日光的垂直部分及四面投入的为空气中各种质点格散及反射的日射。水平面全热量(即後一种),对於气象学本身是最有价值,     

济南盛夏两次大暴雨天气的对比分析

通过对比分析济南盛夏两次大暴雨天气过程,发现它们的环流形势存在历史相似;高低空急流的强弱、冷空气的路径对地面气旋的移动可以产生不同程度的影响;大暴雨的产生与特定大尺度背景下中尺度系统的出现有关;抬升作用、水汽输送、层结不稳定是生成大暴雨的必要条件.     

交替事象之持续性理论及其对于天气晴雨之应用(第二报)

Ⅰ作者在本论文的第一报里(气象杂志第十三卷第709页),曾经以天气的晴雨为例,提出一个检视交替事象持续性有无的方法,并就南京自1928年至1936年的天气晴雨纪录,应用上述的理论,得到了天气晴雨有连续至十日左右的持续性的结论。那时是这样规定持续性     

长期天气预告的物理基础

“云掩中秋月,雨打上元灯。”“重阳无雨一冬晴。”这两句天气俚谚,很明显的告诉我们,长期天气预告并不是十分时髦的问题。千年前的农民和诗人对於这个问题早就有了深切的注意和相当的认识了。他们凭著经验的提示,诗兴的焕发,作了许多关於这类的俚谚,为的是要诱掖後人们注意天气的前後相互关系。这些天气俚谚是否能够兑现呢?这个问题恐怕是许多人要问的。严格的讲,这类的俚谚大都没有兑现的可能,他们的普遍流行,只不过是表示一个农业国家的     

黑河电力通讯调度大楼雷电电磁脉冲防护等级风险评估的计算

1引言对建筑物电子信息系统防护等级进行计算,确定合理的防雷电电磁脉冲措施,可以达到建筑物电子信息系统的防护目的又能减少不必要的浪费。通过对黑河电力通讯大楼(十九层)雷电电磁脉冲防护等级的计算,将一种比较容易计算的方法介绍给大家,在电子信息系统雷电电磁脉冲防护等级的风险评估中有一定的帮助。     

IPCC 第五次评估报告关于适应气候变化与可持续发展的新认知

IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。     

南京的天气

天气这个问题是人们三句不离口的东西,而也是人们最难了解的东西。这种只会谈而不能了解的现象,中外皆然。的确!在中国拿天气作为谈话的资料,已经谚语化了。你瞧!中国“谈话”俗语叫“谈天”,他的意思就是闲谈天气;中国“问安”或“致意”是叫“寒暄”,意思是问问“冷热”或谈谈“天气的状况是否适宜於对方的起居”。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

Dominant cloud microphysical processes of a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan,China

High-resolution numerical simulation data of a rainstorm triggering debris flow in Sichuan Province of China simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to study the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the torrential rainfall. The results showed that: (1) In the strong precipitation period, particle sizes of all hydrometeors increased, and mean-mass diameters of graupel increased the most significantly, as compared with those in the weak precipitation period; (2) The terminal velocity of raindrops was the strongest among all hydrometeors, followed by graupel’s, which was much smaller than that of raindrops. Differences between various hydrometeors’ terminal velocities in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, which favored relative motion, collection interaction and transformation between the particles. Absolute terminal velocity values of raindrops and graupel were significantly greater than those of air upward velocity, and the stronger the precipitation was, the greater the differences between them were; (3) The orders of magnitudes of the various hydrometeors’ sources and sinks in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, causing a difference in the intensity of precipitation. Water vapor, cloud water, raindrops, graupel and their exchange processes played a major role in the production of the torrential rainfall, and there were two main processes via which raindrops were generated: abundant water vapor condensed into cloud water and, on the one hand, accretion of cloud water by rain water formed rain water, while on the other hand, accretion of cloud water by graupel formed graupel, and then the melting of graupel formed rain water.     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究：进展与展望

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

A political ecology of maladaptation: Insights from a Gramscian theory of the State

This article analyzes a political process in the aftermath of a disaster and explains why and how it led to maladaptation. Grounding Gramsci’s theory of the State on a case of post-disaster response to a fatal mudslide in the city of Sarno in Italy, this research argues that, under certain conditions, civil society and the ruling classes may coalesce to produce policies that are maladaptive. We unpack the mechanisms through which consent was reproduced in Sarno, and show how the claims of civil society were articulated and fused with the hegemonic goals of capital circulation and economic growth, reaffirming a view of government as only a provider of safety. A Gramscian treatment of the State as a process, and not as a thing, highlights that the main barrier to adaptation is not the lack of techno-managerial solutions. It is the lack of political struggle around the social reconfiguration of the logic and functions of the State.     

CMIP6不同分辨率全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力评估

基于参与CMIP6高分辨率模式比较计划(HighResMIP)9个模式组的18个全球气候模式模拟数据,通过与CN05.1观测资料的对比,评估了不同分辨率气候模式对中国区域1961—2014年降水特征的模拟能力.结果表明:低、高分辨率模式均能模拟出中国区域多年平均降水的总体空间分布特征,以及降水冬弱夏强的季节变化特征,但...