Study on forest fire danger model with remote sensing based on GIS

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Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the central Himalayas since 1990

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.     

京津冀地区植被时空动态及定量归因

作为气候变化的敏感指示器,植被的物候、生长、空间分布格局等特征及其动态变化主要取决于气候环境中的水热条件,因此在气候变化背景下,气候-植被关系成为了全球变化研究的前沿和热点问题。本文综合平均温度、降水、水汽压、湿度、日照时数、SPEI等气候因子,坡度、坡向海拔等地形因子及人为活动因子,应用地理探测器方法针对2006-2015年京津冀地区不同季节NDVI、不同地貌类型区、不同植被类型区生长季NDVI的定量归因研究,揭示了过去10年间植被时空分布格局,及植被对气候、非气候因素响应的季节差异与区域差异,以期为生态工程的建设与修复提供参考意义。趋势分析表明：①2006-2015年京津冀地区NDVI呈现增加趋势,但存在显著的空间差异,如山地生长季NDVI的增长速率大于平原、台地、丘陵等地;②基于地理探测器的定量归因结果表明,降水是年尺度上NDVI空间分布的主导因子（解释力39.4%）,土地利用与降水的交互作用对NDVI的影响最为明显（q=58.2%）;③NDVI对气候因子的响应存在季节性及区域性差异,水汽压是春季NDVI空间分布的主导因子,湿度是夏、秋两季的主导因子,土地利用是冬季的主导因子;④影响因子对生长季NDVI的解释力因不同地貌类型区、不同植被类型区而差异显著。     

Spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity in Hengduan Mountains area,China: impacts of climate change and human activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.     

天山西部林区护林防火信息系统构建

天山西部林区护林防火信息系统是综合运用空间信息技术、数据库技术及森林防火专业技术,依托地理基础信息、森林资源信息及护林防火专题信息,在Arc GIS Engine开发平台上,通过VB.NET可视化开发语言的二次开发,构建的专业应用系统。该系统的框架包括数据库及林火预测预报、火灾指挥扑救、灾后损失评估、森林资源管理等子系统,可实现火点智能定位、火场信息查询显示、辅助决策指挥等具体功能。为林区护林防火部门进行宏观管理、分析决策提供多源、及时、科学的空间信息服务,旨在改善林区防灾、减灾及森林安全工作的被动局面,提升林火管理的科学化、信息化水平。     

香港城市环境遥感综合研究

本文针对香港复杂的地理环境特征,以多平台的航天遥感信息为数据源,分析研究香港特区的植被类型及其空间变化、土地利用的空间分布与区域差异,为香港城市规划提供基础数据。     

RS AND GIS-BASED FOREST FIRE RISK ZONE MAPPING IN DA HINGGAN MOUNTAINS

1INTRODUCTIONForests are one of the major natural resources that per-form important environmental and recreational func-tions (COSTANZA and GROOT, 1997). It is well known that forests can absorb atmospheric carbon, maintain a certain degree of humidity in atmosphere, regulate rainfall, moderate temperature, and restrain soil erosion, etc. (AURELIA, 2003). So, the health of a forest in any given area is a very important indicator of the ecological conditions. But fire is the great…     

Examining Forest Net Primary Productivity Dynamics and Driving Forces in Northeastern China During 1982–2010

Forest net primary productivity （NPP） is a key parameter for forest monitoring and management. In this study, monthly and annual forest NPP in the northeastern China from 1982 to 2010 were simulated by using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model with normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） sequences derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） Global Invento y Modeling and Mapping Studies （GIMMS） and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） products. To address the problem of data inconsistency between AVHRR and MODIS data, a per-pixel unary linear regres- sion model based on least ~;quares method was developed to derive the monthly NDVI sequences. Results suggest that estimated forest NPP has mean relative error of 18.97% compared to observed NPP from forest inventory. Forest NPP in the northeastern China in- creased significantly during the twenty-nine years. The results of seasonal dynamic show that more clear increasing trend of forest NPP occurred in spring and awmnn. This study also examined the relationship between forest NPP and its driving forces including the climatic and anthropogenic factors. In spring and winter, temperature played the most pivotal role in forest NPR In autumn, precipitation acted as the most importanl factor affecting forest NPP, while solar radiation played the most important role in the summer. Evaportran- spiration had a close correlation with NPP for coniferous forest, mixed coniferous broadleaved forest, and broadleaved deciduous forest. Spatially, forest NPP in the Da Hinggan Mountains was more sensitive to climatic changes than in the other ecological functional re- gions. In addition to climalie change, the degradation and improvement of forests had important effects on forest NPP. Results in this study are helpful for understanding the regional carbon sequestration and can enrich the cases for the monitoring of vegetation during long time series.     

基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型

森林火灾发生频繁且突发性强,进行森林火险快速预警对于减小森林火灾损失和促进森林资源可持续发展至关重要。本文基于GIS空间分析和可视化技术,利用地面气象站构建实时气象监测网络,设计了运用气象监测网络的森林火险预警模型,可实现森林火险及时、快速预警。模型应用层次分析法建立了预警因子重要性层次结构并确定预警因子的权重;运用Voronoi图技术,基于气象站点和实时气象数据,构建气象监测网络;利用叠置分析技术计算得出预警结果。基于该模型设计的森林火灾快速预警系统应用于青海省林业局,验证了系统可行性与适用性,该模型可全面、准确、快速地实现对森林火险的预警。结果表明：① 根据预警模型及实时气象监测数据,可及时发出预警信号,快速实现县级、林场级别的森林火险早期预警和及时响应;② 运用GIS可视化技术,可快速生成相关区域森林火险的空间分布专题图,直观地观察预警等级的变化情况。实践表明,森林火险快速预警对森林火灾进行有效预防、中断管理和制定扑救措施具有重要的指导作用,并对森林防火工作、保护森林资源和人类生命财产安全具有重大意义。     

Relationships between river water quality and landscape factors in Haihe River Basin,China: Implications for environmental management

River water plays a key role in human health, and in social and economic development, and is often affected by both natural factors and human activities. An in-depth understanding of the role of these factors can help in developing an effective catchment management strategy to protect precious water resources. This study analyzed river water quality, patterns of terrestrial and riparian ecosystems, intensity of agricultural activities, industrial structure, and spatial distribution of pollutant emissions in the Haihe River Basin in China for the year of 2010, identifying the variables that have the greatest impact on river water quality. The area percentage of farmland in study area, the percentage of natural vegetation cover in the 1000-m riparian zone, rural population density, industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/km², and industrial amino nitrogen emissions were all significantly correlated with river water quality (P < 0.05). Farming had the largest impact on river water quality, explaining 43.0% of the water quality variance, followed by the coverage of natural vegetation in the 1000-m riparian zone, which explained 36.2% of the water quality variance. Industrial amino nitrogen emissions intensity and rural population density explained 31.6% and 31.4% of the water quality variance, respectively, while industrial GDP/km² explained 26.6%. Together, these five indicators explained 67.3% of the total variance in water quality. Consequently, water environmental management of the Haihe River Basin should focus on adjusting agricultural activities, conserving riparian vegetation, and reducing industrial pollutant emissions by optimizing industrial structure. The results demonstrate how human activities drive the spatial pattern changes of river water quality, and they can provide reference for developing land use guidelines and for prioritizing management practices to maintain stream water quality in a large river basin.     

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

Understanding the spatiotemporal links between drought and forest fire occurrence is crucial for improving decision-making in fire management under current and future climatic conditions. We quantified forest fire activity in Mexico using georeferenced fire records for the period of 2005–2015 and examined its spatial and temporal relationships with a multiscalar drought index, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI). A total of 47975 fire counts were recorded in the 11-year long study period, with the peak in fire frequency occurring in 2011. We identified four fire clusters, i.e., regions where there is a high density of fire records in Mexico using the Getis-Ord G spatial statistic. Then, we examined fire frequency data in the clustered regions and assessed how fire activity related to the SPEI for the entire study period and also for the year 2011. Associations between the SPEI and fire frequency varied across Mexico and fire-SPEI relationships also varied across the months of major fire occurrence and related SPEI temporal scales. In particular, in the two fire clusters located in northern Mexico(Chihuahua, northern Baja California), drier conditions over the previous 5 months triggered fire occurrence. In contrast, we did not observe a significant relationship between drought severity and fire frequency in the central Mexico cluster, which exhibited the highest fire frequency. We also found moderate fire-drought associations in the cluster situated in the tropical southern Chiapas where agriculture activities are the main causes of forest fire occurrence. These results are useful for improving our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence as related to drought severity in megadiverse countries hosting many forest types as Mexico.     

土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响

蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。     

漳平市森林可燃物类型变化遥感动态监测

森林可燃物类型的空间分布是林火蔓延、灭火可视化建模与仿真中需要考虑的重要因素之一。在对森林可燃物类型划分的研究进行回顾的基础上,提出了考虑树种信息的分类方法。根据漳平市2003年小班图层中的优势树种信息,获得该市2003年四种森林可燃物类型即竹林、阔叶树、杉木林以及马尾松的空间分布专题图。在此基础上,采用面向对象分类技术,对ASTER影像进行分类,探测每种可燃物类型的内部变化和外部变化。该技术利用影像分割技术构建分类对象,使每个对象具有光谱信息的同时,具备大小、形状、拓扑关系、类别层次等诸多信息。对分类结果进行评价的结果表明,利用面向对象分类技术,充分利用了光谱特征以及类别相关特征,提高了分类精度,分类的面积精度达到89.3%。由于影像分割过程应用了专题图层,对象的边界不会超越专题图层的边界,使得对现有图层的更新尤为容易。最后,利用矢量格式的遥感分类结果对原森林小班图层进行更新,获得新的可燃物类型图层,作为林火可视化模型的输入图层。该研究不仅提供了现势性强的森林可燃物类型图层,而且在不破坏原小班边界的基础上,对发生变化的区域进行刻画。对于森林资源管理者,提供了实地调查过程的目标区域的信息。     

Land use intensity dynamics in the Andhikhola watershed,middle hill of Nepal

Land use intensity is a valuable concept to understand integrated land use system, which is unlike the traditional approach of analysis that often examines one or a few aspects of land use disregarding multidimensionality of the intensification process in the complex land system. Land use intensity is based on an integrative conceptual framework focusing on both inputs to and outputs from the land. Geographers' non-stationary data-analysis technique is very suitable for most of the spatial data analysis. Our study was carried out in the northeast part of the Andhikhola watershed lying in the Middle Hills of Nepal, where over the last two decades, heavy loss of labor due to outmigration of rural farmers and increasing urbanization in the relatively easy accessible lowland areas has caused agricultural land abandonment. Our intention in this study was to ascertain factors of spatial pattern of intensity dynamism between human and nature relationships in the integrated traditional agricultural system. High resolution aerial photo and multispectral satellite image were used to derive data on land use and land cover. In addition, field verification, information collected from the field and census report were other data sources. Explanatory variables were derived from those digital and analogue data. Ordinary Least Square(OLS) technique was used for filtering of the variables. Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model was used to identify major determining factors of land use intensity dynamics. Moran's I technique was used for model validation. GWR model was executed to identify the strength of explanatory variables explaining change of land use intensity. Accordingly, 10 variables were identified having the greatest strength to explain land use intensity change in the study area, of which physical variables such as slope gradient, temperature and solar radiation revealed the highest strength followed by variables of accessibility and natural resource. Depopulation in recent decades has been a major driver of land use intensity change but spatial variability of land use intensity was highly controlled by physical suitability, accessibility and availability of natural resources.     

武汉城市圈的水源涵养功能重要性评价研究

本文以武汉城市圈为研究对象,分析城市发展对该区域水源涵养功能的影响。文中选取植被、气象、地形、土壤和人为5个因子,分别以植被覆盖度、降水量、蒸发量、坡度、坡长、土壤层厚度和覆盖类型作为水源涵养功能重要性的评价指标,综合采用专家判断矩阵和层次分析法构建其指标体系。利用遥感、GIS等空间分析技术对武汉城市圈水源涵养功能重要性进行评价,并分析影响水源涵养功能的各单因子重要性的动态变化及空间分布格局。结果表明：2000-2009年间,武汉城市圈水源涵养功能呈现先增高后降低的趋势;空间分布格局主要表现为武汉城市圈东北部、东南部低山丘陵地带的水源涵养功能重要性较高;短时间尺度上,人为活动所导致植被覆盖度的变化和覆盖类型的改变是影响水源涵养功能的主要因素。其中,2005-2009年间,人类不合理开发利用土地导致植被覆盖度降低、湖泊湿地减少是武汉城市圈水源涵养功能下降的主要原因。     

福州土地利用变化及其驱动力多元综合分析

运用地球信息技术对福州土地利用变化特征和驱动力进行了深入分析。主要以TM数据作为信息源获取两时相土地利用状况及其变化信息:用GPS快速提供变化区准确的空间位置信息和野外调查时的快速定位;并利用GIS对多种数据进行处理、集成管理、空间统计和相关分析;对土地利用变化驱动力进一步研究。     

森林防火减灾信息系统的设计开发——以四川省遂宁市为例

森林资源是极其重要的自然资源。利用3S(GIS、RS、GPS)技术、数据库技术,以及网络技术建立森林防火信息系统对减少森林火灾损失具有重要意义。本文以四川省遂宁市为例,对该市森林防火信息系统的结构和功能、系统的数据库进行了设计、建设。该系统数据库的数据主要有1:1万地形图,1:1万森林资源二类调查数据,气象站点数据,扑火力量分布数据,了望站点分布数据,扑火物资储备数据,林业管理机构分布数据,以村或乡镇为单位的人口、经济统计数据及遥感影像数据库。该系统的主要功能包括数据的处理和管理,森林火险等级评价,森林火灾监测,林火趋势模拟和预测,最佳扑火路径分析,防火扑火预案制定,防火扑火决策,灾害损失评估,灾后重建辅助决策,相关图、表和报告制作等功能。在系统的搭建过程中,采用MicrosoftVisualStudio2005作为开发平台,利用Ar-cEngine组件对象模型进行软件系统的开发,采用SQLServer2005数据库管理系统和ArcSDE9.2空间数据库引擎来实现该系统的数据管理。该系统的建立对该市森林防火和森林资源管理等均具有重要意义。     

1980s-2005 年内蒙古地区土地利用/覆被变化分析

近几十年来, 由气候变化和人类活动共同驱动的内蒙古地区土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)较为剧烈, 其引发了一系列的生态环境问题。本文基于3 期LUCC数据, 借助于变化率指数、动态度指数、转类矩阵, 在全区和地级市尺度上, 分析了内蒙古地区土地利用/覆被变化的时空特征及驱动因素。研究结果显示, 受地形因素的影响, 研究区土地利用/覆被变化表现出明显的区域差异及区域趋同性。在经济发展和人口增长的双重压力下:(1)平原耕作区深受国家宏观政策的影响, 2000 年之后的“林地、高覆盖草地开垦”总体速度下降了近35%;(2) 平原耕作区北部边缘条带状地区、山区草原区受制于降水不显著的波动呈减少态势, 2000 年之后的“草地退化及荒漠化”趋势加强了近85%。研究结果为内蒙古地区土地资源的可持续利用与科学管理提供了依据。     

FOREST LANDSCAPE PATTERN DYNAMICS OF LUONING COUNTY IN HENAN PROVINCE AND ITS DRIVING FORCES

With the help of ARC/INFOR and ERDAS software, based on the information from forest resources distribution maps and TM images, four indices were chosen to analyze spatial pattern changes of forest landscape of Luoning County, Henan Province from 1983 to 1999. The results showed that: 1) The number and total area of patches were rapidly increased with time changes. The fragmentation degree of the landscape was increasing great-ly. 2) The area of some forest patch types, especially shrub forest, economic forest, Populus spp. forest, Quercus spp. forest, sparse forest, deserted grassland etc. had been greatly changed. 3) The fragemation degree of each forest patch type became greater from 1983 to 1999.4) The transition probabilities of deserted forest, economic forest, Pi-nus tobulaeformis forest, Populus spp. forest exceed 85%,Robinia pseuoacacia forest, deserted grassland, 65% and Quercus spp. forest, non-forest, shrub forest had smaller ones, which were 26.5%, 29.1% and 45.3%, respec-tively. The main transition trends of various patches were non-forest and Quercus spp. forest. During the course of transition, the types that 50% of area was remained were Quercus spp. forest, non-forest and shrub forest. Accord-ing to above analyses, the main driving forces, such as the management policies, market economy factors and influ-ences of human activities etc. were brought out.     

南水北调中线核心区土地利用变化及其生态环境响应研究

本文以南水北调中线工程核心水源区淅川县为例,选取2004年TM、2014年GF1号影像等数据,解译获取了淅川县土地利用数据,对2004-2014年淅川县土地利用变化进行定量分析。通过选用区域生态环境质量模型,对研究期内淅川县土地利用变化的生态环境效应进行评估,并采用灰色关联法对导致淅川县生态环境质量变化的驱动因素进行分析。研究结果表明：① 2004-2014年,林地、建设用地和水域面积增加,耕地面积减少。在林地资源演化趋势上,有林地、疏林地、灌木林地和苗圃地与林地资源的整体演化格局一致,而宜林地和无立木林地、未成林造林地呈减少的趋势;② 在空间分布上,林地主要分布在海拔高、坡度较陡的北部山区,耕地和建设用地密集分布于海拔低、相对平缓的东南部地区;③ 2004年和2014年2期生态环境质量均在县域内表现出明显的空间差异,呈现出北高南低的分布趋势。研究期内淅川县区域生态环境质量指数从0.5443上升至0.6039,生态环境质量提高,其中宜林地和无立木林地转化为有林地、退耕还林对区域生态环境改善贡献最大;④ 局部地区生态环境呈负向发展,其中对森林资源采取掠夺式开采和粗放型管理、毁林开地对县域生态环境产生的负面影响最为深刻。⑤ 2004-2014年县域生态环境质量变化主要由政策和居民追求利益最大化的行为所驱动。