Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression: exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of housing prices

Understanding scale effects is important and indispensable for geography studies. However, spatial and spatiotemporal statistical tools for measuring the operational scales of different processes are rather limited. This article extends the popular geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to consider operational scale effects by proposing multiscale GTWR (MGTWR), which offers a flexible and scalable framework for identifying and analysing multiscale processes by specifying flexible bandwidths for various covariates. Then, MGTWR is employed to explore spatiotemporal variations and how influential factors are associated with housing prices in Shenzhen. This article attempts to extend GTWR to MGTWR in consideration of scale effects, thereby highlighting the importance of different levels of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Furthermore, the empirical results of this study can provide valuable policy implications for real estate development in areas where urban planning should address multiscale effects in both temporal and spatial dimensions.     

非户籍与户籍人口居住空间分异的多维度解析——以深圳为例

在居住空间相异指数基础上,构建了集聚—分散度、中心—边缘度和极化—均质度指数,进一步挖掘由于人口聚居形态、居住区位和居住质量等方面差异导致的居住空间分异的多维内涵,及其所揭示出的社会经济空间现象、成因及空间治理重点。利用全国第六次人口普查数据开展深圳实证研究,在计算全市及各区分维指数的基础上,分析深圳人口居住空间相异指数特征及空间尺度差异,多维居住空间分异格局特征及成因,并通过聚类分析将深圳非户籍与户籍人口居住空间分异类型划分为三类,分类提出空间治理政策建议。从而为深入理解中国大城市日益出现的居住分异现象及机制提供新鲜视角和多样化测度方法,为解决其带来的社会及空间治理问题提供更有针对性的政策建议。     

城市景观对住宅价格的影响——以杭州市为例

优美的城市景观是人们日常生活休闲、娱乐的场所, 给人们带来心理上的愉悦和舒适感, 对城市的品质内涵也有重要影响。由于大多数景观效益是隐性的, 其舒适性价值难以用货币价格直接测量, 国内外学者广泛采用特征价格法进行实证研究。本文以杭州市为例, 从建筑、邻里、区位、景观四个维度选择25个解释变量构建特征价格模型, 定量评估了城市内部各类景观对住宅价格的影响。实证结果表明:住宅价格与到西湖和公园的距离呈负相关关系, 而与公园的面积呈正相关关系:其中, 到西湖和最近公园的距离每增加1%,住宅价格将分别下降0.240%和0.036%;公园的面积每增大1%,附近的住宅价格则提高0.012%;广场、山景、钱塘江等景观也对周边一定范围内房价具有显着的提升作用。     

转型期广州市生命历程与住房产权转换

作为家庭生命历程中的重要事件,住房产权转换与家庭特征变化、个人与工作单位的关系以及区域住房市场环境变化紧密相关。采取事件史分析方法,将住房产权转换与个体生命历程中的重要事件关联起来,分析住房产权转换的影响因素。对住房产权转换的持续期的研究发现,处于租房状态下的住户改变产权状态的愿望较强,但产权一旦进入自有状态,居民改变产权的愿望就会降低;从住房产权的生存时间来看,最终向全部产权转变的生存时间最长,其次是向资助产权的转变,最短的是向租房产权转变;通过建立COX’s比例风险模型分析发现,家庭生命周期变化和组织变量对住房产权转换的影响都非常显著,说明在中国特殊背景下,住房产权的转换不仅与家庭基本特征变化密切有关,还与个人单位的基本特征密切相关,这正是转型时期计划体制和市场分配体制双重力量相互作用的结果。     

I cannot afford to live alone in this city and I enjoy the company of others: why people are share housing in Sydney

ABSTRACT

Share housing is changing. Once considered a form of short-term housing and a lifestyle choice for young adults fresh out of the family home, share housing is increasingly playing a broader role into advanced adulthood. Recent work has claimed the emergence of Generation Rent; however, the reconfiguration of housing experiences is illustrated not only by renting but also by an increase in house sharing and the emergence of ‘Generation Share’ within the renting cohort. We know surprisingly little about share housing and its increasingly important role in housing. This paper draws upon exploratory research conducted on share housing in Sydney, Australia, and argues that share housing as traditionally understood is changing. Share housing has a widening demographic and it is driven primarily by economic factors. Despite this, the social affordances offered by share housing are highly valued. Share housing therefore offers us a unique lens into changing housing pathways and values and provokes us to think of ways to produce more socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable housing.     

Scenarios for Community-based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: a case study from the Wet Tropics,Queensland, Australia

Natural resource management approaches that deliver biodiversity conservation remain elusive, with evidence of a persistent implementation gap between biodiversity science and conservation projects. Scenarios have been identified as potentially useful in addressing the complex issues underlying this implementation gap, but have been infrequently applied to biodiversity conservation. Our paper reports on action co-research to develop, apply and assess the efficacy of scenarios within a community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) approach to biodiversity conservation at Mission Beach, a key site within the globally significant Wet Tropics bioregion. We focused on the capacity of scenarios to address the issues of contested interests and uncertainty, aiming specifically to engage the community to build a cohesive vision. The scenarios' headline messages included a projected substantial loss of habitat in coastal vegetation communities that are highly valued by all stakeholders. Our assessment identified that the use of scenarios fulfilled the intended aims, resulting in a vision for biodiversity conservation that has substantial community support. Three factors contributed to this efficacy of the scenarios: (1) the focus on threat; (2) biodiversity science integration; and (3) simplicity in presentation. Further investigation of the potential of scenarios as tools to overcome the implementation gap in biodiversity conservation is recommended.     

Integrated,Regional, Natural Resource and Environmental Planning and the Natural Heritage Trust Phase 2: a case study of the Northern Agricultural Catchments Council,Western Australia

Since 2002, the Australian Natural Heritage Trust Phase 2 (NHT2) has required community groups seeking funds for natural resource management projects to have developed nationally accredited regional strategies and investment plans. This case study reports on the progress of one such regional (and sub-regional) group, examining in particular the perceptions of the community group members and other stakeholders of the overall process. Through interviews, participant observation and document analysis in 2004–05, the process of developing a regional strategy and an investment plan by the Northern Agricultural Catchments Council in Western Australia, and the involvement of regional stakeholders in the process, were examined. While the concept of regional-scale management was perceived favourably by community interviewees, their concerns related to increasing bureaucracy, the need for further local involvement, more on-ground action instead of further planning, the relevance of the regional Council to local communities, and the motives of Council members. Communication with regional stakeholders was extensive in preparing the regional strategy, but fell short during the development of the investment plan. The success of the regional planning process will be evidenced by whether members of the regional community actively implement regional priorities, and whether long-term funding and support from the State and Australian governments are provided.     

Transition and Diversity in Rural Housing Provision: The case of Narrogin,Western Australia

The purpose of this paper is to examine the changing dynamics of housing markets in an Australian rural community. With reference to the case of Narrogin, Western Australia, it argues that there is an increasing disjuncture between the social and demographic characteristics of rural residents and the modal form of housing in country towns, namely the detached family house. Factors contributing to this disjuncture include the ageing of the population, the loss of traditional blue-collar employment, sub-regional restructuring of service provision, retirement migration patterns, and growing acceptance of the particular housing needs of groups such as the aged, the disabled, young and indigenous people. While it is clear that there is currently something of a mismatch between the characteristics of the population and the housing stock in Narrogin, it is also evident that a combination of political, cultural and economic factors form a significant barrier to adjustment in the local housing market.     

基于广州实证的后改革时代中国城市住房权问题

社会公正是当前地理学的一个热点也是传统研究课题。住房问题往往是社会公正研究和实践的重点案例。中国住房制度改革之后,中国住房拥有率及人均住房面积均大幅度提高。然而在住房分配的过程中,不平等和不公正现象时有发生。如何区别平均和公正,如何看待中国住房改革中的社会公平与不公共存的现象,是了解中国新城市现象的一个重要途径。本文从近期西方政治学和地理学关于住房权（housing rights）、社会公正以及城市权利等文献的讨论出发,通过在广州的实证研究,运用结构方程模型和Pratt指数对涉及住房权主要方面的住房分异的发生途径及其公正性进行综合分析。实证研究说明在住房分配领域,存在着制度因素延续下来所导致的分异。一些制度因素已经转化为市场因素,直接或间接影响个人居住条件和住房所有权的获得,并通过后者进一步影响住房分异。与此同时,纯粹市场因素的影响则相对薄弱。上述结论有助于了解当前中国城市住房权的核心问题,认识社会公正的发展前景,以及探寻减少社会不公正的制度利器。     

基于空间分位数模型的住宅价格分异的影响因素研究——以武汉市为例

住宅价格的变化是关系我国城镇化建设和社会经济高质量发展的重要问题。为探索住宅价格分位点下的影响因素,本文以我国中部国家中心城市——武汉市为例,运用空间分位数模型进行定量分析,同时将两阶段空间自回归模型结果作为对比揭示其优越性。研究表明：① 空间分位数模型不仅能考虑住宅价格的空间自相关性,而且还关注了住宅价格的条件分布特征,更为全面地描述微观因素对不同价位住宅的作用效应。②从分位点来看,高住宅价格的空间自相关性强于低住宅价格的;而且影响因素存在波动性和异质性,相比较于两阶段空间自回归的均值结果,空间分位数模型中各因素的影响程度随着分位点的变化出现上升或下降趋势,对低价、高价等不同价位的住宅影响程度存在显著差异。③ 整体而言,建筑年龄和医疗配套为负向影响因素,容积率等建筑特征、区位特征和教育配套等邻里特征变量为正向影响因素。基于研究结果,合理提高中低价位住宅区域的容积率和绿地率、加大低价住宅区的轨道交通和教育设施的投入力度等应当成为政府部门针对不同价位的住宅制定差异化政策措施的考虑方向。     

Transplanting cityscapes: the use of imagined globalization in housing commodification in Beijing

How does globalization unfold in the process of urban development? Rather than examine the impact of globalization on the city as if the former were independent of and superimposed on the latter, this paper aims to address how globalization can be imagined, pursued and exploited in the process of local growth. Through examining the emergence of Western architectural motifs in a late socialist capital, Beijing, it is shown that transplanting cityscapes is a conscious action by developers to exploit globalization and thereby overcome the constraints of local markets. By associating themselves with globalization, the development elite hope to sell the vision of the good life in the era of globalization.     

Effects of accessibility and environmental health risk on housing prices: a case of Salt Lake County,Utah

While transportation infrastructure can increase housing price by improving accessibility to opportunities, it generates environmental health risks, such as noise and air pollution, which may have negative effects on housing price. However, the combined effects of accessibility and environmental health risk on housing price have not been well examined in the literature, especially in the auto-oriented urban context of the United States. In this study, we use assessed housing value data and the hedonic model to examine the single-family housing market's reaction to accessibility and environment health risks in Salt Lake County, a growing metropolitan area in Utah experiencing significant air pollution. Three regression models are employed with the consideration of spatial effects: ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial lag regression (SLR), and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM, or multilevel modeling/MLM). By controlling for the influences of structural attributes and socioeconomic conditions, we find that the negative impacts (traffic noise and air pollution) of transportation systems on single-family housing prices are greater than the positive impact (accessibility). Single-family residents in Salt Lake County are willing to pay more to reduce environmental health risks than to get better accessibility. These findings are different from what have been found in some dense and compact urban areas in the literature. These findings suggest that people's willingness to pay for minimizing environmental health risks varies across different urban contexts.     

邻避设施空间分布特征及其与周边住宅价格的关系——广州案例

随着中国城镇的快速发展以及市民环境意识的提高,由邻避设施引发的矛盾日益增多。合理规划邻避设施,是促进环境正义、推动社会和谐的重要课题。论文从“规划云平台”获取广州主城区邻避设施的地理信息数据,通过Python语句编码收集广州主城区小区平均房价数据,运用克里金插值法分析邻避设施的空间分布特征,构建多元线性回归模型和地理加权回归模型研究邻避设施与周边住宅价格的关系。研究发现,广州主城区邻避设施的布局与低收入住宅区的分布在空间上具有一致性,邻避设施主要分布在房价较低的住宅区周边;邻避设施对周边小区房价的影响与邻避设施的类型和所在区位相关,城市边缘区的邻避设施对房价造成了显著的负面影响,而城市中心良好的区位条件、基础设施与公共服务配套一定程度上抵消了邻避设施的负外部性;污名化类的邻避设施对房价的影响程度明显小于污染类、风险聚集类和心理不悦类邻避设施。本研究对有关城市邻避设施的科学规划布点具有一定的借鉴和指导意义。     

空间功能视角下的公共服务对房价的影响——以成都市为例

房价的快速上涨和城市内部房价的巨大差异引起社会广泛关注,调控房价,防止局部区域房价过热势在必行。本文从城市空间功能的视角出发,以成都市2016年房价为例,基于地理探测器分析公共服务对房价的影响。结果表明：成都平均房价为8480元/m²,并从市中心沿交通环线和放射状干线同时向郊区递减,形成圈层加放射格局,总体上呈现西高东低、南高北低的特点。公共服务(主要包括医疗、金融和教育服务)对房价的影响以第三圈层和西南方最为显著,且高于城市层面上整体的影响。公共服务对房价的影响显著受不同区域的空间功能差异的影响,公共服务和空间功能差异会加剧房价的分异格局,并推动局部房价过热。因此,显著地受到在房价调控中,不仅要有传统的金融、经济政策,还要注重空间功能和公共服务的优化。     

环境类邻避设施对北京市住宅价格影响研究——以大型垃圾处理设施为例

近年来,随着城市扩张,垃圾处理设施的布局逐步和城市居住空间相交叠,影响居民生活品质。目前人们对于北京市垃圾处理设施“围城”问题的认知多来自新闻媒体的宣传报道,存在一定的认知误差。以北京市六环内及周边街道为研究范围,分析垃圾处理及转运设施对房价的影响程度,以及垃圾处理设施对周边住宅价格影响的空间范围,在此基础上分析北京市最大的垃圾处理中心——阿苏卫对周边房价的影响范围。结果表明：① 北京市大型垃圾处理设施对周边房价影响的空间作用范围平均为6 km左右,这一距离远超市政建设要求的大型垃圾处理设施与居住区距离500 m的邻避标准。以此空间距离为基准测算,北京有800多个社区、约70万户居民处于大型垃圾处理设施的影响范围内。② 案例研究显示,阿苏卫垃圾处理中心对周边房价的影响范围接近14 km,远大于垃圾处理设施的平均空间作用距离。由于阿苏卫周边分布着回龙观、天通苑等大型居住区,受该设施影响的居民多达几十万人。     

Assessing the influences of service provision on pace and short and medium term development patterns of residential housing in Dar es Salaam

The connection between city development patterns, housing and service provision is critical as it affects allocation of scarce resources in the cities of Sub Sahara Africa, where the adopted planning models and concepts seem to have minimal success. Through spatial analysis and quantitative research this study explores sequencing of servicing and housing development as it impacts city spatial growth patterns in a context of resource deficiency in Dar es Salaam City. The study finds that despite households’ land ownership being crucial in city spatial expansion process towards residential house ownership, their actual construction and occupation will depend on the accessibility of services. Moreover, it was established that as more services become available, proportionally, number of people settling in new areas increases. Since this process happens equally in planned and unplanned settlements, this study indicates that it is the availability of services and not land allocation that triggers actual development of residential housing. Thus, service provision determines the pace of change in short and medium city spatial patterns. This implies that in the context of public resource deficiency and self-help housing, strategic investments in basic services such as electricity connection, public transport and portable water is the way to influence actual city development pattern rather than providing plots.     

基于住宅价格视角的居住分异耦合机制与时空特征——以南京为例

城市住宅价格空间分异,是居住空间资源非均衡配置的市场化表达,映射出不同阶层社会群体对城市住宅的选择倾向与需求差异,与居住空间分异在机制和格局上存在一定耦合关联。以南京主城区商品房社区为研究对象,构建起住宅价格特征变量指标体系,采用地理加权回归模型,分析导致房价空间差异的主要因素、组合关系及时空演变特征。研究发现：社区服务档次、学区资源、环境区位、景观稀缺等能够体现居住群体经济实力、生活方式与文化品位的因素,是影响房价分异的主导要素并随时间不断强化;南京房价总体上呈现“圈层+扇形+飞地”的空间结构,高房价主要分布在城市中心、名校学区、高档封闭社区和山水景观别墅区;房价分异与居住分异在作用机制和空间格局上表现出显著的关联耦合特征。城市房价空间分异不止于表达,同时也是推动居住空间分异与再分化的重要驱动机制,并能够预判未来一段时期内城市居住空间分异格局演变的基本走势,可以为城市社会空间研究提供具有前瞻性的观察视角和分析工具。     

Rapid urbanization in a transitional economy in China: The case of Hainan Island

The outcomes and forms of urbanization and modernization in China following the reform and opening of the late 1970s have attracted extensive attention and competing interpretations in scholarly documentation. This paper focuses on Hainan Island, established in 1988 as the biggest special economic zone in China. Since then, considerable inflows of human as well as speculative capital have led to rapid real estate, in particular tourism-related, development. While urban expansion and improvements have been encouraged, the ongoing over-building, unregulated conversion of land use and degradation of the urban environment present serious social and economic problems. This paper summarizes the trajectory, causal factors and outcomes of this urban growth and consequent planning problems that make the island an atypical case in China's urbanization experience. We argue that the establishment of a practical framework combining socioeconomic planning, land use planning, and the management of both, is crucial to achieve sustainable growth for this transitional economy.     

收缩城市住宅价格空间分异及影响机制——以鹤岗市为例

收缩城市的经济社会问题逐渐凸显,住宅市场发展呈现出消极态势,房价变化成为社会关注的焦点。在此背景下,论文以典型收缩城市——黑龙江省鹤岗市为例,基于住宅小区、夜间灯光、POI数据,利用Kriging插值和多尺度地理加权回归模型等方法,结合鹤岗市空间增长与收缩情况分析住宅价格空间分异特征及影响机制。结果显示：① 鹤岗市住宅价格呈圈层模式分布,核心—外围分异程度强。高水平住宅价格小区集聚在核心区内且分布规模小,中高值圈层扩散态势弱;外围工矿型辖区收缩情况相对严重,住宅价格水平低且波动小。② 城市发展状态与住宅价格水平存在空间相关性。不同收缩程度区域经济发展态势、居民收入水平、人口减少与老龄化、保障房建设规模等宏观因素差异影响着住宅价格总体空间分异格局。③ 城市内部区域的增长或收缩状态影响微观设施的作用效果。发展中心的区位优势对增长型区域住宅价格的正向作用更强,高水平公共服务对核心区和城市北部收缩区域住宅价格的增长有明显积极效应,企业工厂的分布对增长型区域住宅价格的负向影响更突出,各因素相互联系、交互影响,共同作用于住宅价格空间分异。     

New dynamics of rent gap formation in New York City rent-regulated housing: privatization,financialization, and uneven development

ABSTRACT

To explain newfound investor interest in rent-regulated multifamily housing in New York City since 2001, this paper analyzes the transformation in ownership and management of the Riverton Houses, a large rent-regulated housing complex in northern Manhattan. The paper finds new dynamics of rent gap formation at work; rather than depressed capitalized rent attracting investment, increasing potential rent provides a new mechanism for opening rent gaps. The Riverton Houses case shows how three factors increase potentials rents: 1) changes in rent control law that provide new avenues to increase rents, 2) new financial actors and institutions that have higher expectations for risk and return, and 3) longer-term processes of uneven development at the urban scale. Altered rent gap dynamics under processes of privatization, financialization, and uneven urban development complicate the geography of reinvestment beyond a reinvested core and gentrifying periphery. Instead, the urban frontier is drawn recursively within urban space.