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本文对中国大陆沿岸20个站同步1年的逐时潮位首先进行低通滤波,然后对零族潮位进行响应分析,将太阳辐射潮、天文潮和非线性潮分离开,再对它们和零族潮位分别进行调和分析,从而探讨了长周期潮的内部机制结构及长周期潮在中国沿岸的分布变化规律. 相似文献
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采用多种方法和3种模型分析了东方、海口、北海、闸坡、香港、汕尾、厦门、坎门、吕四、那霸、名濑、连云港、石臼所、大连共14个验潮站22年逐时海平面序列的相对海平面变化,主要包括趋势与周期项提取和未来月均海平面预测两大方面,比较了各种方法分析所得结果的相似性与差异性。结果表明:各验潮站的海平面均在逐渐上升,上升速率在1~3 mm/a之间,平均值为2.3 mm/a;各站的周期项也不一样,但基本都包含周年和半年项。发现一些方法组合时可能会出现异常情况,例如模型趋势项选择不同的形式,可能会导致所求速率出现正负截然相反的情形,不同的周期寻找方法所确定的周期也存在一定差异。各种方法的预测效果相差不大,预测残差基本都在±2 dm以内,基于奇异谱分析的均生函数的长期预测效果要明显优于带周期项的灰色模型和传统模型,但短期预测效果相差不大。 相似文献
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论述平均海平面、海面、潮面、平均潮面和海拔的概念、定义。提出研究平均海平面的一些基本问题,以及尚待深入探讨的几个问题。给出国内外的若干研究成果 相似文献
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海岸滩涂围垦的适宜速度研究--以江苏淤泥质海岸为例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
滩涂围垦是基础设施建设占用大量耕地情况下江苏省实现耕地总量动态平衡的主要途径之一,随着社会经济的发展和对土地需求量的不断增加,滩涂围垦与海岸带环境保护之间的矛盾日渐突出。但以实现耕地总量动态平衡为目的的滩涂围垦需要以滩涂总量动态平衡为前提才能保证滩涂资源的可持续利用。通过对江苏海岸的发育和围垦历史以及淤蚀动态的分析,提出以滩涂总量动态平衡为前提的滩涂围垦适宜速度,并对江苏海岸不同岸段的适宜围垦速度进行计算分析,提出围垦活动的强度应当同时综合考虑围垦后的经济和社会效益与拟围滩涂所在岸段的自然淤蚀状况(即滩涂的承载力),以实现同时满足围垦活动与滩涂资源保护的平衡。 相似文献
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风暴潮对淤泥质海岸的影响——以江苏省淤泥质海岸为例 总被引:9,自引:2,他引:9
暴风浪对海岸地貌和海洋沉积均有极大影响,这一问题已引起国际海洋地质学界愈来愈多的注意.本文以江苏省淤泥质海岸为例,对此问题加以比较系统的论述. 相似文献
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Sea level change analysis and models identification are important factors used for coastal engineering applications. Moreover, sea level change modeling is used widely to evaluate and study shoreline and climate changes. This study intends to analyze and model Alexandria, Egypt sea level change by investigating yearly tide gauge data collected in a short duration (2008–2011). The time-frequency method was used to evaluate the meteorological noise frequencies. Two models were used to predict the time series data: Neural Network Autoregressive Moving Average (NNARMA) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The time-frequency analysis and models identification results showed that no extreme events were detected for Alexandria point during the monitoring period. Therefore, the NNARMA and ANFIS models can be used to identify the sea level change. The estimates of the models were compared with the three different statistics, determination coefficient, root mean square errors, and auto-correlation function. Comparison of these results revealed that the NNARMA model performs better than the ANFIS model for the study area. 相似文献
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Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records. 相似文献
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A New Methodology for Incorporating Tide Gauge Data in Sea Surface Topography Models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
As part of the Vertical Offshore Reference Frames (VORF) project sponsored by the U. K. Hydrographic Office, a new model for Sea Surface Topography (SST) around the British Isles has been developed. For offshore areas (greater than 30 km from the coast), this model is largely derived from satellite altimetry. However, its accuracy and level of detail have been enhanced in coastal areas by the inclusion of not only the 60 PSMSL tide gauges with long-term records around the coasts of the United Kingdom and Ireland but also some 385 gauges established at different epochs and for different observation spans by the U. K. Admiralty. All tide gauge data were brought into a common reference frame by a combination of datum models and direct GPS observations, but a more significant challenge was to bring all short-term sea level observations to an unbiased value at a common epoch. This was achieved through developing a spatial-temporal correlation model for the variations in mean sea level around the British Isles, which in turn meant that gauges with long-term observation spans could be used as control points to improve the accuracy of Admiralty gauges. It is demonstrated that the latter can contribute point observations of mean sea level (MSL) with a precision of 0.078 m. A combination of least squares collocation and interpolation was developed to merge the coastal point and offshore gridded data sets, with particular algorithms having to be developed for different configurations of coastal topology. The resulting model of sea surface topography is shown to present a smooth transition from inshore coastal areas to offshore zones. Further benefits of the techniques developed include an enhanced methodology for detecting datum discontinuities at permanent tide gauges. 相似文献
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The Newlyn Tidal Observatory is the most important sea level station in the United Kingdom. It commenced operations in 1915 as part of the Second Geodetic Levelling of England and Wales, and the mean sea level determined from the tide gauge during the first six years (May 1915–April 1921) defined Ordnance Datum Newlyn (ODN) which became the national height datum for the whole of Great Britain. The 100 years of sea level data now available have contributed significantly to many studies in oceanography, geology, and climate change. This paper marks the centenary of this important station by reviewing the sea level (and, more recently, detailed land level) measurements and Newlyn's contributions to UK cartography, geodesy and sea-level science in general. Recommendations are made on how sea and land level measurements at Newlyn might be enhanced. 相似文献
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验潮站观测的海面高度数据是监测海平面变化以及确定平均海面时常使用的重要基础观测信息,针对平均海面以及相对海平面变化速率在不同时段观测资料下结果的差异进行了分析,统计了不同时间尺度平均海面确定的差异,并设计了两组数据实验,具体讨论了不同年份19年观测以及观测时长逐年累加两种情况下,相对海平面变化速率确定结果的规律。实验结果表明,月平均海面具有明显的季节性变化,最大互差可达几十厘米,1年平均海面基本稳定,19年平均海面精度可达厘米级;利用19年的观测资料确定的相对海平面变化速率反映的观测时段内海平面的变化情况,各时段结果差异较大且可靠性较低;为获得稳定可靠的相对海平面变化速率,观测时长应至少涵盖两个潮汐变化周期。 相似文献
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对我国近海厦门、大连、北海、连云港、坎门、汕尾、东方、海口、香港北角、名濑、那霸、吕四、闸坡、石臼所共14个验潮站多年潮汐资料进行了分析。对1 a调和分析结果中的8个分潮(Q1,O1,P1,K1,N2,M2,S2,K2)进一步进行了分离,得到各分潮的调和常数,并和1 a潮汐调和分析中的假定值进行了比较。结果表明,有些分潮存在较大误差。用19 a分析所得的调和常数代替传统1 a分析的假定值,能够提高潮汐分析和预报精度,减小误差。 相似文献