不同海域SSTA对东半球越赤道气流年代际变化影响的数值模拟研究

采用1950—2000年逐月观测的不同海域（全球、热带外、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋及热带太平洋）海表温度,分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,进行了多组长时间积分试验,对比ERA-40再分析资料,讨论了这些海域海表温度异常（SSTA）对东半球越赤道气流年代际变化的影响。数值试验结果表明,全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋及热带太平洋海表温度变化分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,均能模拟出索马里、120 ?E和150 ?E越赤道气流在1970年代中后期由弱变强的年代际变化特征,其中模拟的索马里越赤道气流年代际变化特征及其与东亚夏季风年代际变化关系均与观测结果较一致,而热带外海表温度驱动全球大气环流模式未能模拟出此年代际变化现象,表明全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋及热带太平洋海表温度变化均对索马里越赤道气流在1970年代中后期的年代际变化具有重要作用,热带太平洋是关键海区;索马里越赤道气流的年代际变化与热带太平洋海温年代际背景变化密切相关,当热带太平洋处于暖（冷）背景年代,热带东太平洋海温异常从北到南呈“＋、－、＋”（“－、＋、－”）“三明治”式距平分布,有利于赤道东太平洋南北两侧产生一对距平反气旋（气旋）,然后可能通过“大气桥”的作用,与热带印度洋赤道南北两侧的一对距平气旋（反气旋）联系起来,从而引起索马里越赤道气流强度的增强（减弱）。      

A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL SSTA ON THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

By the numerical simulation,the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)of the Pacific andIndian Oceans.being introduced into IAP AGCM,the observed anomalous circulationcharacteristics on the monthly mean 850 hPa have been confirmed:during an El Nino episode thereappears anomalous westerly flow in the low-level atmosphere over the low-latitude Pacific and theanomalous equatorward air flow over the Southeast Asia coast:during a La Nina episode thereappears anomalous easterly flow in the low-level atmosphere over the low-latitude Pacific and theanomalous off-equator air flow over the Southeast Asia coast.If we introduce only Pacific SSTAinto or take off orographic forcing from the model,the simulated anomalous air flow in the low-level atmosphere over the low latitudes will be different.The precipitation departure in conformitywith the observation over the low latitudes has been simulated with this model as well.     

INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE INTENSITY OF SOUTH ASIAN HIGH

The characteristics and possible physical mechanism of interdecadal variation of the intensity of the South Asian High (SAH) in summer are analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data. The results indicate that a remarkable interdecadal transition occurred in the late 1970s that increased the intensity of SAH, or, an abrupt climate change was around 1978. A comparative analysis between the weak and strong period of the SAH intensity shows that the related anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation (including wind field, air temperature field and vertical velocity field) are nearly opposite to each other. The surface latent heat flux anomalies over the plateau (especially in the northwest of the plateau) in summer exert great influence on the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity and the surface sensible heat flux anomalies play a more important role. Consistent with the interdecadal variation of the SAH intensity, the monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer also experienced a low to high transition in the late 1970s. To some extent, this can reveal the impact of the anomalous monopole mode of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in summer on interdecadal variation of the SAH.     

东半球跨赤道气流季节变化及其在EL NINO年的异常

利用1979年1月到1987年12月美国国家气象中心六个层次的月平均风场资料,分析了东半球跨赤道气流的季节变化及其年际异常。得到冬、夏跨赤道气流的输送集中在对流层下部,冬季向南,夏季向北;春、秋跨赤道气流的输送集中在对流层上部,春季向北,秋季向南。低层跨赤道气流位置稳定,南北风方向转换时间为3月和11月;高层跨赤道气流位置变化较大,南北风转换时间为6月和1月。在El Nino年,跨赤道气流出现明显的异常,但表现形式不尽相同。ElNino年,夏季下层跨赤道气流稳定建立的时间比正常年推迟2—3候,且季内变化大,稳定维持时间短。     

海表温度异常影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的数值模拟

采用1950-2000年逐月观测的不同海域(全球、热带外、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋、热带印度洋及热带太平洋)海表温度分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,进行了多组长时间积分试验,对比ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了这些海域海表温度异常对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响。数值试验结果表明:全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋和热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风的年代际变化具有重要作用,均模拟出了东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生的年代际减弱现象,以及强、弱夏季风年代夏季大气环流异常分布的显著不同,这与观测结果较一致,表明热带太平洋是影响东亚夏季风此次年代际变化的关键海区;利用热带印度洋海表温度驱动模式模拟出的东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生年代际增强现象,即当热带印度洋海表温度年代际偏暖(冷)时,东亚夏季风年代际增强(减弱),与热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响相反;热带太平洋海表温度年代际背景的变化对东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期的年代际减弱有重要作用。     

CLIMATOLOGICAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOWS FOR THE PERIOD 1948-2004

By using monthly NCEP/NCAR meridional gridpoint wind data at the levels of 1000, 850, 700,600, 500, 400, 300, 200, 150 and 100 hPa from 1948 to 2004, the intensity of global cross-equatorial flows is calculated. The spatial and temporal variation of global cross-equatorial flows at the 850-hPa level are shown and discussed. The results show that the strength of the 850-hPa global cross-equatorial flows represent obvious long-term variation and interdecadal change during the period. Evidence suggests that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 45 - 50 °E in June to August, 105 - 115 °E in May to September,130 - 140 °E in May to September and May to November and 20 - 25 °E in February to April intensified and that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 50 - 35 °W in June to August weaken in the past 57 years, with an increase of 0.25m/s/10a for summer Somali Jet and increase of 0.32 m/s/10a for crossequatorial flow at 130 - 140 °E in May to September The results of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for the time series indicate that for the cross-equatorial flow at 850 hPa, the interdecadal and long-term trend changes are 35% - 45%, and the interannual variation is no more than 30%, in variance contribution. The results also reveal that the interannual variation of intensity of the summer cross-equatorial flows in the Pacific is significantly correlated with Southern Oscillation. With weak Southern Oscillation, strong crossequatorial flows in Pacific will happen, though the summer Somali Jet is only a little positively correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAD).     

全球海温异常对中国降水异常的影响

用EOF和SVD方法分析了Climatic Research Unit的1951—2005年全球逐月海温距平场的时空变化特征及其与中国160个测站的月降水距平的时滞和空间耦合关系,讨论全球海温距平场的空间分布和时间演变对我国降水异常的影响,并着重分析了关键区在其特定关键时段内对我国降水异常的影响区域。结果表明,全球海温距平场有三个影响我国降水的关键区,即北太平洋、印度洋和我国南海以及赤道中东太平洋。这三个关键区的海温距平场具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,突变发生在1976年左右,对我国降水有较为显著的影响,其中北太平洋关键区前期冬季海温对我国7月降水的影响、印度洋及南海前期冬春海温对我国5月降水的影响以及赤道中东太平洋前期冬季海温对我国7月降水的影响显得尤为重要。讨论了这三个关键区前期的海温距平场对我国不同区域不同时期降水影响的耦合关系,为我国区域降水异常预测的不确定性提供了依据。     

南亚高压强度的年代际变化及可能原因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA ERSST海温资料,对夏季南亚高压的年代际变化特征及其可能机制进行了分析。结果表明,南亚高压由弱到强的年代际转折发生在1970年代末,或者说南亚高压强度在1978年前后发生了年代际突变。对南亚高压偏弱和偏强两个阶段的对比分析表明,大气环流(包括风场、温度场和垂直运动场等)的异常形势和特征显著不同,几乎是相反的。夏季地表潜热通量异常的分析说明,夏季高原(特别是高原西北部)的地表热通量异常对南亚高压强度的年代际变化有重要影响;相对而言,地表感热通量异常可能对南亚高压强度的年代际变化起更重要作用。夏季热带印度洋海温的全区一致型模态在1970年代末也发生了明显的年代际变化,与南亚高压强度的年代际异常有很好的一致性,表明夏季热带印度洋海温一致型模态异常对南亚高压年代际变化有影响。      

北太平洋区域浅层海温与海平面气压场年代际异常关系的分析

用奇异值分解(SVD)方法，研究了北太平洋区域1、7月浅层海温(ST)异常与同期海平面气压(SLP)异常场的关系。结果表明：(1)统计显著的主要是第一模态，且1月的0—80m层、7月的20—120m的上层ST与SLP′，第一模态层际差异很小；(2)年代际变化是该区域海气相互作用的主要时域特征，“突变”发生在1970年代后半期，1月的年代际变化早于7月的1—2年；(3)合成分析表明，年代际变化的环流实质是北太平洋中部前期(1970年代中叶以前)ST持续偏高，相应1(7)月阿留申低压(北太平洋副高)偏弱、位置偏西(变化不明显)，而东亚冬(夏)季风偏弱，反之亦然。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF LAG INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON EAST-ASIAN MONSOON

By prescribing sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)over eastern equatorial Pacific inJanuary—March,the lag influence of ENSO(El Nino and La Nina)on monsoon over East Asiahas been studied.The results suggest that,due to the excitation of atmospheric low-frequencyoscillation by the SSTA,ENSO has significant lag influence on the monsoon over East Asia.During the summer after E1 Nino,the subtropical high over western Pacific is intensified andshows the northward and westward displacement,meanwhile,the rainfall over East China isbelow normal,especially in North China:during the winter after E1 Nino,both the Asian troughand the winter monsoon over East Asia are strengthened.During the summer after La Nina,theanomalous subtropical high prevails over the lower reaches of Yangtze(Changjiang)River,therainfall between Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers is below normal:during the winter after La Nina,both the Asian trough and the winter monsoon over East Asia are weaker.Compared with LaNina,the effect of El Nino is stronger,but it is not always opposite to the one of La Nina.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC ON PRECIPITATION IN 1991

A zonal domain,primitive equation model is used in this paper to study the influences of the main sea surface tem-perature anomaly(SSTA)areas over the Pacific on precipitation in 1991.Some numerical experiments are made and themechanisms of the influences are discussed.The results show that the influences of the SSTA are mainly confined withinthe tropical and the subtropical regions.The direct effect of the SSTA is to change the exchanges of the sensible heat andthe water vapour between the air and the sea,through the consequent changes of temperature and the flow fields and thefeedback process of condensation,the SSTA finally affects precipitation.     

INTERANNUAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF EAST HEMISPHERIC CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND ITS CONCURRENT RELATIONSHIPS WITH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL IN CHINA

The NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data were used to analyze the interannual variation characteristics of the cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and its concurrent relationships with temperature and rainfall in China. The results indicated that CEF changes more in summer than in winter. As the main flow channel in summer, the Somali CEF changes in a way that does not markedly influence the changes in the CEF total except for winter. The summer CEF total has two sudden increases and one sudden decrease during the last century while the winter total has just one decrease. Long-period data show that the correlation between CEF and summer rainfall in China is not very significant, but is different before and after the 1970s, which is due to CEF’s close links with the East Asia summer monsoon. Winter CEF’s correlation with concurrent winter temperature in northern and southern China varies with the relationship between CEF and sea-level pressure in different areas.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE OVER CHINA

An updated version of the Regional Acid Deposition Model(RADM)driven by meteorologicalfields derived from Chinese Regional Climate Model(CRegCM)is used to simulate seasonal variationof tropospheric ozone over the eastern China.The results show that:(1)Peak O_3 concentration moves from south China to north China responding to the changing ofsolar perpendicular incidence point from south to north.When solar perpendicular incidence pointmoves from north to south,so does the peak O_3 concentration.(2)In the eastern China.the highest O_3 month-average concentration appears in July.thelowest in January and the medium in April and October.The pattern mainly depends on the solarradiation,the concentration of O_3 precursors NO_x and NMHC and the ratio of NMHC/NO_x.(3)Daily variations of O_3 over the eastern China are clear.Namely,O_3 concentrations rise withthe sun rising and the maximums appear at noon.then O_3 concentrations decrease.The highest dailyvariation range of O_3 appears in summer(40×10~(-9) in volume fraction)and the lowest in winter(20×10~(-9) in volume fraction).(4)Daily variations of O_3 over the western China are not clear.The daily variation range of O_3 isless than 10×10~(-9) in volume fraction.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008

In this paper,we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean,the equatorial Pacific,Kuroshio and the North Atlantic.Our results are shown as follows: (1) CAM3.0,driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions,can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008,indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia.(2) The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough.However,the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects.The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height (Z500A) over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes.For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio,the subtropical high was much stronger,spread farther north than usual,and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean.The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia,a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region.Because of the La Nia event,the winter monsoon was stronger than normal,with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China.(3) The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAs.This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008,especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics,which were more similar to those of the winter El Ni?o events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nia.     

东半球越赤道气流的年际变化特征及其与我国同期气温、降水的相关性

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料分析了东半球冬、夏两季越赤道气流的年际变化特征,以及与中国160个站点同期气温、降水的相关性.分析表明:越赤道气流的年际变化夏季强于冬季,索马里急流并不显著影响到总量的变化,而冬季最强通道与总量变化关系密切.夏季越赤道气流总量在1950年代后期和1970年代中期有两次剧增,并与冬季一样都在1994～1995年有一次剧减.东半球夏季越赤道气流与中国同期降水的相关性很小,但在1970年代突变前后的相关性明显不同,原因与东亚夏季风的关系密切.冬季越赤道气流与中国同期南北的气温的相关随着越赤道气流与不同地区海平面气压的相关性的不同而不同.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC ON PRECIPITATION IN 1991*

A zonal domain,primitive equation model is used in this paper to study the influences of the main sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) areas over the Pacific on precipitation in 1991.Some numerical experiments are made and the mechanisms of the influences are discussed.The results show that the influences of the SSTA are mainly confined within the tropical and the subtropical regions.The direct effect of the SSTA is to change the exchanges of the sensible heat and the water vapour between the air and the sea,through the consequent changes of temperature and the flow fields and the feedback process of condensation,the SSTA finally affects precipitation.     

INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND SUMMER INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN CHINA

Interdecadal variation of the relationships between ENSO and the summer interannual climate variability in China is investigated by using techniques of sliding correlation analysis with the tropical Pacific SSTA and the observed surface air temperature and precipitation from stations in China. The results indicate that there are stable and robust relations that the Northern China is relatively dry during the developing phase of ENSO while the Yangtze River valley is relatively wet during the decaying phase of ENSO. On the other hand, interdecadal variations of the relations are also found in other regions. Over the time both prior to the Pacific decadal climate shift (before the late 1970s) and after it (after the late 1970s), during the developing phases of ENSO the summer precipitation anomaly in South China changed from below to above normal, whereas that in Northeast China changed from above to below normal; the summer surface air temperature anomaly in North and Northeast China changed from cooling to warming, whereas that in South China changed to cooling; during the decaying phases of ENSO the North China changed from wetter to dryer while the Huai River valley changed from dryer to normal; North China, Yangtze River valley and South China tend to be warmer. Based on the composite analysis of the NCAR/NCEP reanalyze datasets, significant differences existing in ENSO-related atmospheric circulation anomaly in East Asia during pre- and post-shift periods may be responsible for the interdecadal variation of relationships between ENSO and surface air temperature and precipitation in China.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF OZONE DISTRIBUTIONS AND ITS VARIATION MECHANISM

A 2-D global chemistry-transport model is set up in this paper.The model simulates theatmospheric ozone distributions well with specified dynamical conditions.The analysis of ozonevariation mechanism shows that ozone is chemically in quasi-equilibrium except for the polar nightregion where the variation of ozone concentration is under the control of dynamical processes,thatthe oxygen atoms which produce ozone are mainly provided by the photolysis of O_2 in the upperstratosphere and by the photolysis of NO_2 in the lower stratosphere and the troposphere.and thatthe ozone is destroyed mainly by NO_x:the reactions between NO_x and O_3 and the odd oxygen cyclecontribute 80% to more than 90% of the ozone destruction.     

南半球臭氧变化气候效应的数值模拟

采用一个陆气耦合的９层谱模式模拟了南半球臭氧减少所产生的气候效应。数值试验结果表明,南半球臭氧的减少不仅对南半球温度场的 大气环流有影响,而且对北半球的温度场结构和大气环汉也有一定的影响。其气候效应具有全球性。南半球臭氧减少总体上可以使平流层中层以上大气降温、平流层低层增温、对流层顶附近降温。此外,在北半球冬半年期间,南半球臭氧的减少可使南北半球的副热带西风急流都减弱,极锋急流都增强;在北半球夏半     

全球热带SSTA与中国7月降水和气温的伴随相关型分析

用伴随相关型（ＡＣＰ）分析了中国７月降水和气温与全球热带ＳＳＴＡ的ＰＯＰ（主振荡型）间的关系,得到当两个典型的传播ＰＯＰ处在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件发展相位时中国夏季总体呈南北旱,中间涝的形势,其中江淮流域,华中,东北东部和西北大部为降水正距平,华北,华南为负距平,降水偏多（少）时相应的气温偏低（高）,当两个传播型的典型模态处于ＬａＮｉｎａ事件发展相位时情况则相反。