北太平洋东部风暴轴的变化特征及其与大气环流和SST异常的关系

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF(European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast)逐日再分析资料(ERA40),通过经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分解发现,冬季北太平洋东部风暴轴有着显著的年际变化特征:第一变化模态为在气候平均位置南北相反的偶极子变化型,第二变化模态为在气候平均位置处一致增强或减弱的变化型,第三变化模态为三极子的变化型。进一步的回归分析发现:当东部风暴轴南压(北抬)时,同期冬季是一种厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)年海温异常空间分布型,中纬度北太平洋海区以及赤道中、东海区,冬季冷(暖)异常的洋面上是异常低压(高压),对流层中层是太平洋—北美型(Pacific-North American Pattern,PNA)遥相关的正(负)位相;当东部风暴轴增强(减弱)时,同期冬季黑潮区海温偏暖(偏冷),对流层中层表现为西太平洋型(West Pacific Pattern,WP)遥相关的正(负)位相;当东部风暴轴呈现西北—东南+-+(-+-)相间三极子的分布时,同期冬季巴布亚新几内亚附近海温异常偏暖(冷),夏威夷附近海温异常偏冷(暖),冬季冷(暖)异常的洋面上是异常低(高)压,对流层中层表现出类似PNA正(负)位相。EOF分解各模态所对应时间系数与阿留申低压(Aleutian Low,AL)指数、PNA指数、Nino3指数、WP指数、黑潮海温(Kuroshio Current,KC)指数之间存在显著的相关,这些证明了东部风暴轴与同期大气环流及SST异常之间的联系。     

太平洋年代际振荡冷、暖背景下ENSO循环的特征

利用英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海温距平资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所联合环境分析中心(JEDAC)的海表和次表层海温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)不同背景下ENSO循环的特征.结果表明,PDO为ENSO循环提供了一个年代际气候背景,在PDO的暖位相时期,El Nino事件发生的频率较高,强度较强;反之,在PDO的冷位相时期,La Nina事件发生的频率较高,强度较强.而且在不同的太平洋年代际振荡背景下,ENSO循环表现出不同的特征.在PDO冷位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA从西太平洋沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道东太平洋向西扩展到中太平洋,ENSO事件先在赤道东太平洋爆发.在PDO的暖位相时期,发生El Nino(La Nina)事件时,正(负)的SOTA首先出现在赤道中太平洋,然后沿温跃层向东传播,正(负)的SSTA从赤道中太平洋向东扩展到东太平洋,ENSO事件首先在中太平洋爆发.这为ENSO预测提供了新的线索.     

ENSO事件对招远地区气温的影响

使用太平洋海表温度资料、南方涛动指数和招远国家气象观测站气温常规观测资料,对1981-2010年ENSO事件与气温的影响及相关性进行分析。结果表明:ENSO事件强度呈现剧烈起伏波动的特点。年平均气温呈现在波动中明显上升的趋势,冬季最为显著。ENSO事件的强度与年平均气温的变化呈明显的正相关性。春季气温和ENSO强度两者间呈正相关特征,暖事件年的前一年,气温明显偏低,暖事件年气温升高明显;夏季气温和ENSO事件强度主要呈正相关特征,但90年代末期后,气温和事件强度呈负相关特性;在秋季暖事件年气温偏低,冷事件年气温偏高;冬季气温与ENSO事件强度呈明显正相关特性,中等强度的ENSO事件对冬季气温的影响更大。     

Pacific decadal oscillation and the decadal change in the intensity of the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon

本研究表明,二十世纪南海夏季风的年际变率强度在一定程度上受到太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的调控,PDO处于暖(冷)位相时南海夏季风的年际变率强度偏强(弱)。热带太平洋海温的年际变率强度及南海夏季风与ENSO的关系在上述调控中起到重要作用。PDO处于暖位相时,热带太平洋海温变率偏大,ENSO事件偏强,因而沃克环流及西北太平洋反气旋异常的位置和强度均发生改变,最终导致南海夏季风与热带太平洋海温的相互作用更强,南海夏季风年际变率强度增大,反之亦然。     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的赤道太平洋年际变率

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对赤道太平洋年际变率的模拟能力。结果表明, FGOALS_gl可以较好地模拟出赤道太平洋SST异常年际变率的主要特征, 但模拟的ENSO事件振幅偏大, 且变率周期过于规则。耦合模式模拟的气候平均风应力在热带地区比ERA40再分析资料的风应力强度偏弱30%左右, 由此引起的海洋平均态的变化, 是造成模拟的ENSO振幅偏强的主要原因。FGOALS_gl模拟的ENSO峰值多出现在春季或夏季, 原因可归之于模式模拟的SST季节循环偏差。耦合模式可以合理再现ENSO演变过程, 但观测中SST异常的东传特征在模式中没有得到再现, 这与模拟的ENSO发展模态表现为单一的 “SST模态” 有关。模拟的ENSO位相转换机制与 “充电—放电” 概念模型相符合, 赤道太平洋热含量的变化是维持ENSO振荡的机制。在ENSO暖位相时期, 赤道中东太平洋与印度洋—西太平洋暖池区的海平面气压距平型表现为南方涛动型 (SO型), 200 hPa位势高度分布表现为太平洋—北美遥相关型 (PNA型)。     

冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和海温异常的联系

利用1979—2015年ECMWF逐日再分析资料,通过EOF分解和回归分析研究了冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与海表面温度异常(SSTA)和大气环流异常之间的联系。研究结果表明:冬季中纬度北太平洋地区850 h Pa低频尺度环流存在3个明显的变化模态:第一模态为海盆尺度的单极型异常气旋(反气旋)式环流,同期太平洋SSTA呈现El Ni1o(La Ni1a)以及PDO暖位相(冷位相)空间分布,阿留申低压强度增强(减弱),对流层中高层是正位相(负位相)的PNA型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部南压(北抬);第二模态为在白令海峡和副热带地区呈气旋式与反气旋式环流南北向偶极型变化,同时中纬度北太平洋SSTA呈现NPGO(North Pacific Gyre Oscillation)正位相(负位相)的空间分布,黑潮区域SSTA偏暖(偏冷),北太平洋SSTA经向梯度加大(减小),对流层中高层为负位相(正位相)的WP型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴整体偏北(偏南),强度增强(减弱);第三模态为北太平洋中西部和北美西岸呈气旋式与反气旋式环流东西向偶极型异常,黑潮区域SSTA偏冷(偏暖)而北太平洋东部SSTA偏暖(偏冷),SSTA纬向梯度加大(减弱),同时赤道东太平洋出现类似La Ni1a(El Ni1o)的SSTA分布,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部明显减弱(加强)而西部略有加强(减弱)。     

PDO和ENSO与大连6—9月降水关系分析

利用1905—2006年的太平洋年代际振荡(简称PDO)、ENSO和大连6—9月降水资料,分析三者之间的关系。结果表明:在PDO暖位相期,大连6—9月降水总体比常年偏少;PDO冷位相期,大连6—9月降水总体上比常年偏多;PDO与大连6—9月降水存在准周期对应关系,从PDO冷位相到暖位相,对应的大连6—9月降水距平8 a滑动平均曲线总体呈下降趋势。ENSO对大连6—9月降水的影响明显受PDO的调制,在PDO冷位相期,ENSO年大连6—9月降水总体上比常年偏多,而在PDO暖位相期,ENSO年大连6—9月降水总体上比常年偏少;不同强度和不同冷暖性质的ENSO,在不同PDO位相期内对大连6—9月降水的影响也各不相同。     

ENSO循环的两个不同位相期印度海洋表温度异常的特征分析

通过对ENSO循环的两个不同位相中印度洋地区海表温度变化特征的分析，指出印度洋地区的海温变化与赤道东太平洋地区的海温变化有较好 的相关关系，是ENSO循环的重要组成部分，对应于赤道东太平洋暖位相期，印度洋地区的海温分布为东冷西暖，与此相反，在赤道东太平洋冷位相，印度洋地区的温分布为东暖西冷，进一步的分析还发现，印度洋东，西部地区海温变化纬向差异最明显的区域位于印度洋赤道以南0－25℃附近，且这种差异具有明显的年季变化特征，在整个夏季风期间差异较大，而冬季风期间较小，其中冷位相期间的纬向差异比暖位相期间的纬向差异大，代表印度洋纬向差异的IDM（偶极指数）变化与赤道东太平洋地区的海温变化有很好的正相关关系。     

ENSO循环的两个不同位相期印度洋海表温度异常的特征分析

通过对ENSO循环的两个不同位相中印度洋地区海表温度变化特征的分析,指出印度洋地区的海温变化与赤道东太平洋地区的海温变化有较好的相关关系,是ENSO循环的重要组成部分。对应于赤道东太平洋暖位相期,印度洋地区的海温分布为东冷西暖;与此相反,在赤道东太平洋冷位相期,印度洋地区的海温分布为东暖西冷。进-步的分析还发现,印度洋东、西部地区海温变化纬向差异最明显的区域位于印度洋赤道以南0～25°S附近,且这种差异具有明显的年季变化特征,在整个夏季风期间差异较大,而冬季风期间较小,其中冷位相期间的纬向差异比暖位相期间的纬向差异大。代表印度洋纬向差异的IDM(偶极指数)变化与赤道东太平洋地区的海温变化有很好的正相关关系。     

MJO持续异常对ENSO的影响

MJO在夏季会出现在太平洋持续异常活跃和在印度洋持续异常活跃两种形式,用指数定义了这种异常的强度,并发现这种异常表现与秋冬季节ENSO的出现之间有很高的相关性。当夏季MJO在太平洋持续异常活跃时,经常激发当年秋冬季节发生El Nino事件;当夏季MJO在印度洋持续异常活跃时,经常激发当年秋冬季节发生La Nina事件。对大气环流的分析表明,MJO的持续异常活跃会对整个赤道太平洋上空的环流造成影响,引起风应力的异常。异常风应力激发次表层冷/暖海水向东输送。冬季冷/暖海水在东太平洋次表层堆积,最终导致ENSO的形成。     

ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble of model simulations based on a very long SST record

The January–March (JFM) climate response of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere to observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1855–2002 is analysed from a 35-member ensemble made with SPEEDY, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. The model was run at the T30-L8 resolution, and initial conditions and the early stage of model runs differ among ensemble members in the definition of tropical diabatic heating. SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region were categorised into five classes extending from strong cold to strong warm. Composites based on such a categorisation enabled an analysis of the influence of the tropical Pacific SST on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation with an emphasis on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) regions. As expected, the strongest signal was detected over the PNA region. An “asymmetry” in the model response was found for the opposite polarity of the Niño3.4 index; however, this asymmetry stems mainly from the difference in the amplitude of model response rather than from the phase shift between responses to warm and cold El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The extratropical signal associated with warm ENSO events was found to be stronger than that related to cold events. The results also reveal that, for the PNA region, the amplitude of the response is positively correlated with the strength of ENSO, irrespective of the sign of ENSO. With almost no phase shift between model responses to El Niño and La Niña, the linear component of the response is much stronger than the non-linear component. Although the model climate response over the NAE region is much weaker than that over the PNA region, some striking similarities with the PNA are found. Both sea level pressure and precipitation responses are positively correlated with the strength of ENSO. This is not true for the 200-hPa geopotential heights, and no plausible explanation for such a result could be offered. An appreciable linear component in model response over the NAE was also found. The model results over the NAE region agree reasonably well with observational studies. An additional analysis of the remote atmospheric response to very weak ENSO forcing (defined from the interval between 0.5σ and 1.0σ of the interannual variance) was also carried out. A discernible model response in the Northern Hemisphere to such a weak SST forcing was found.     

过去60年中3—5年时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流异常的滞后耦合及其机理

基于1950—2009年60a月平均Nino3指数和NCEP/NCAR第一套等压面再分析资料,关注3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流年际异常的时空联系及其机理,通过对此期间出现在3次持续强ENSO阶段中的11次3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程的诊断表明,平流层环流的年际尺度异常与3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO循环过程密切耦合。极夜急流强度趋于在ENSO暖/冷峰值之后减弱/加强,最大异常值多滞后ENSO峰值约1/4周期(接近1a),出现在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季;且3—5a时间尺度的ENSO峰值愈强,滞后约1/4周期出现的热带外平流层纬向风的年际异常也愈强;平均而言,这种年际时间尺度的耦合关系,也对实际的季节尺度平流层极涡振荡的强度和性质有显著的调制作用。进一步研究这种滞后耦合关系与年际时间尺度的行星波活动异常的联系发现,在暖ENSO峰值所在的当年冬季,对流层高层被强迫出年际时间尺度的太平洋-北美(PNA)型异常环流,而与冷ENSO峰值相对应的是相反的太平洋-北美异常型;这种太平洋-北美型与平流层热带外地区的行星波1波的发展相联系;在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季,太平洋-北美型环流减弱但对流层高层的主要异常分布在中高纬度,多对应着平流层行星波2波的显著增强,与平流层极区最强的高度异常相联系。行星波活动所引起的经向动量通量和经向热量通量的辐合、辐散异常对平流层滞后异常响应的贡献,存在显著的阶段性差异,在不同的阶段两者可以共同起作用,也可以分别起作用。     

北太平洋冬季海-气耦合的主模态及其与瞬变扰动异常的联系

利用45年的ECMWF再分析资料,使用SVD方法研究了冬季北太平洋地区表层海温(SST)异常与大气环流异常间的主要耦合模态,探讨了大尺度海-气耦合型与天气尺度瞬变扰动的相互关系。分析结果表明,中纬度北太平洋地区冬季存在两种主要的海-气耦合型,第1种耦合型反映了与ENSO紧密相关的中纬度北太平洋冬季海温异常分布型以及大气的PNA型,第2种耦合型SST异常集中在东亚沿海以及中纬度北太平洋海流区,相应的大气场则为暖(冷)SSTA上空东西向带状区域内位势高度偏高(低),明显独立于ENSO型。进一步的合成分析表明,在第1种耦合型SST正(负)异常年里,冬季阿留申低压主体位置偏西南(东北),从东北亚到北美西海岸的西北—东南向带状区域内是低层大气温度正(负)异常区和高层西风负(正)异常区,西风负(正)异常中心位于西风急流出口处的北太平洋中东部,而西风急流主体区的风速变化很小。在第2种耦合型东亚沿海至中纬度北太平洋海流区SST偏暖(冷)时,阿留申低压整体偏弱(强),SST暖(冷)异常上空的大气温度偏暖(冷),高层西风急流区西风偏弱(强)。两种耦合型均显示出在北太平洋中纬度地区大气和海洋的异常相关中心有很好的空间对应性。在两种耦合型下,中纬度北太平洋冬季的大气斜压性也发生截然不同的改变,引起中纬度天气尺度瞬变扰动活动异常。瞬变扰动异常的动力强迫作用对北太平洋西风异常的形成存在正反馈作用,而其热力作用则试图破坏与两种海-气耦合模态相关的大气温度异常型。     

Mean Flow–Storm Track Relationship and Rossby Wave Breaking in Two Types of El-Nino简

The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.     

The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal–interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century.     

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns and severity of winters in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin

Abstract

We analyzed the relationship between an index of Great Lakes winter severity (winters 1950–1998) and atmospheric circulation characteristics. Classification and Regression Tree analysis methods allowed us to develop a simple characterization of warm, normal and cold winters in terms of teleconnection indices and their combinations. Results are presented in the form of decision trees. The single most important classifier for warm winters was the Polar/Eurasian index (POL). A majority of warm winters (12 out of 15) occurred when this index was substantially positive (POL > 0.23). There were no cold winters when this condition was in place. Warm winters are associated with a positive phase of the Western Pacific pattern and El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific. The association between cold winters and La Niña events was much weaker. Thus, the effect of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on severity of winters in the Great Lakes basin is not symmetric. The structure of the relationship between the index of winter severity and teleconnection indices is more complex for cold winters than for warm winters. It takes two or more indices to successfully classify cold winters. In general, warm winters are characterized by a predominantly zonal type of atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere (type W1). Within this type of circulation it is possible to distinguish two sub‐types, W2 and W3. Sub‐type W2 is characterized by a high‐pressure cell over North America, which is accompanied by enhanced cyclonic activity over the eastern North Pacific. Due to a broad southerly “anomalous” flow, surface air temperatures (SATs) are above normal almost everywhere over the continent. During the W3 sub‐type, the polar jet stream over North America, instead of forming a typical ridge‐trough pattern, is almost entirely zonal, thus effectively blocking an advection of cold Arctic air to the south. Cold winters tend to occur when the atmospheric circulation is more meridional (type C1). As with warm winters, there are two sub‐types of circulation, C2 and C3. In the case of C2, the jet stream loops southward over the western part of North America, but its northern excursion over the eastern part is suppressed. In this situation, the probability of a cold winter is higher for Lake Superior than for the lower Great Lakes. Sub‐type C3 is characterized by an amplification of the climatological ridge over the Rockies and the trough over the East Coast. The strongest negative SAT anomalies are located south of the Great Lakes basin, so that the probability of a cold winter is higher for the lower Great Lakes than for Lake Superior.     

东亚-太平洋遥相关型形成过程与ENSO盛期海温关系的研究

利用1961～2000年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、扩展重建的海表温度资料(ERSST)和中国730个站旬降水资料,采用SVD和扩展SVD（ESVD）分析、合成分析、相关分析等方法,在分析中国梅雨期降水与同期大气环流和前期冬季海温之间关系的基础上,研究了ENSO盛期海温异常导致与长江流域梅雨期降水密切相关的东亚/太平洋（EAP）遥相关型形成的过程,及与ENSO相关的海温和大气环流异常的持续性问题。结果表明,梅雨期EAP遥相关型的出现与ENSO遥强迫作用有密切关系。联系冬季ENSO和梅雨期EAP遥相关型的关键过程主要有三个:（1）西北太平洋低纬地区异常反气旋环流的形成和维持, 它在冬季形成后一直可维持到夏季,使得夏季西北太平洋副热带高压偏南偏强;（2）东亚大槽持续偏弱,冷空气活动路径偏北偏东,使西北太平洋海温呈亲潮区偏冷、黑潮区偏暖的海温分布; （3）PNA遥相关型的持续发展,使北冰洋地区高度增高。后二者通过局地海气相互作用和大气内部调整过程对初夏鄂霍次克海阻塞形势的形成起重要作用。另外,持续性分析表明,ENSO年大气环流和海温距平型的持续性要比非ENSO年大得多。在ENSO年大气环流和海温之间存在很强的相互作用耦合关系,ENSO引起的大气环流异常可导致太平洋海温异常,而海温异常一旦形成反过来又可导致大气环流异常的稳定和维持,对后期初夏东亚季风和我国天气气候产生明显滞后效应。     

Phase‐locked and asymmetric correlations of the wintertime atmospheric patterns with the ENSO

Abstract

Teleconnections between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific and the dominant patterns of wintertime Northern Hemisphere 500‐hPa height are examined by applying statistical techniques such as rotated principal component analysis and composite analysis. It is shown that the Pacific/North American (PNA) patterns in December through March are correlated most significantly with the ENSO‐related SST anomalies in the previous October, while the western Pacific (WP) patterns in December through February are most closely linked to the ENSO‐related SST anomalies in the same season. In addition, the PNA response to the ENSO signal during La Niña events is more significant than that during El Niño events, while the WP response is stronger during El Niño events than during La Niña events. A composite analysis shows that in the El Niño winters the North Pacific centre of the PNA pattern is located about 10 degrees east of its normal position, leading to a less significant correlation between the ENSO signal and the PNA pattern in these winters.

The ENSO‐related SST anomalies include a large centre of action over the tropical Pacific and an oppositely signed anomaly centre over the North Pacific. The North Pacific centre appears to the west of the dateline in September and October. This ENSO‐related seed of SST anomalies slowly moves eastward in the following months, gradually cutting off its connection with SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and being coupled with the PNA pattern. It is pointed out that, although the wintertime SST anomaly over the North Pacific may appear as a mode linearly independent of the ENSO signal in the same season, it is partially related to the ENSO signal in the preceding autumn.

Possible dynamical explanations of the above results are discussed. It is suggested that the WP pattern can be linked to the tropical Pacific heat source via advection of vorticity by the upper‐tropospheric divergent/convergent flow, and the intensification of vorticity gradients associated with a stronger east Asian jet is likely to be responsible for a more significant WP pattern response to the ENSO signal in the El Niño winters. On the other hand, the ENSO‐related PNA pattern could be considered a manifestation of the eastward extension (El Niño) or westward withdrawal (La Niña) of the east Asian jet stream due to the local Hadley cell over the Pacific. In addition, the ENSO‐related seed of extratropical SST anomaly over the western Pacific in autumn may also play an important role in the development of the PNA pattern in the following winter.     

Spatial and interannual variations of spring rainfall over eastern China in association with PDO–ENSO events

The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958–2013 (1920–2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO–ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northward to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO–ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest–northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.