Decadal Trends in Oxygen Concentration in Subsurface Waters of the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Previous studies have shown decreasing oxygen concentration (O₂) in subsurface waters of the continental slope from California to Canada since about 1980. With longer time series we show that from southern California to northern Canada increasing O₂ preceded these decreases from 1950 to about 1980. Because there has been no clear trend since 1950, we cannot yet conclude that anthropogenic climate change is the cause of these decreasing trends after 1980. These findings are based mainly on O₂ on the 26.7 potential density (σ_θ) surface in the region north of 30°N and east of 170°W, covering both the continental margin and deep-sea regions. On the continental slope, O₂ increased at most locations by 10 to 20?µmol?kg^?1 to about 1980, followed by declines of similar magnitude in recent years. Changes in O₂ were associated with changes in temperature of the opposite sign south of 37°N, but correlation of temperature and O₂ is irregular in more northerly locations. At all locations, temperature-related solubility change was a minor cause of these O₂ trends. In deep-sea waters, O₂ decreased with time with a more rapid decrease from about 1995 to about 2003. At Ocean Station P (OSP; 50°N, 145°W), which has the longest uninterrupted record of observations, significant linear trends of ?0.4 to ?0.5?µmol?kg^?1?y^?1 were found on the 26.5, 26.7, and 26.9 σ_θ surfaces. In addition, a significant sinusoidal oscillation of period 18.61 years and amplitude of 18?µmol?kg^?1 was found on the 26.9 σ_θ surface at OSP and a station 400?km to the east, which fits reasonably well with the lunar nodal cycle. The phase of this oscillation was identical at both locations. Clear evidence of similar variability did not emerge at other open-ocean locations or along the continental slope.     

对印度洋偶极子中海洋环流异常的模拟研究

用高分辨率印度洋-太平洋区域海洋环流模式(IPOM)模拟研究印度洋偶极子(IOD)过程.用观测的1990年～1999年热带海表风应力强迫IPOM,模拟出20世纪90年代出现的两次(1994年和1997年)IOD过程中热带印度洋海温异常的一些基本特征.通过模拟的海洋环流过程,揭示出IOD过程中海洋环流异常的物理图像.发现在IOD事件时,东赤道印度洋上层出现强的向西(负)的距平流窄带,此距平流在赤道两侧向外辐散,且具有向西传的海洋Rossby波特征.IOD位相时在沿赤道的垂直剖面上,存在一个明显的距平环流圈:表层为强的向西距平流;下面为向东的补偿流;80°E以东存在着明显的涌升流,构成垂直环流圈的上升支;其下沉支主要在55°E以西的西印度洋.同时在热带东印度洋赤道两侧各有一个垂直的经向距平环流圈,其共同的上升支在赤道附近.在反IOD位相时,洋流距平分布与IOD位相截然相反,但洋流距平的绝对值较小.由上述距平洋流分布的特征发现,IOD过程中热带印度洋海温异常(东冷西暖)现象,可从水平和垂直海流的异常变化,特别是大范围异常涌升流和沉降流的出现得到解释.     

一个太平洋海盆尺度环流模式及其模拟结果

在中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的全球气候海洋环流模式(LICOM)的基础上构建了一个太平洋海盆环流模式,并对其模拟结果进行了深入的分析.在模拟中对中尺度示踪物输送采用了两种方案,即传统的水平扩散方案(HOR)和包括涡旋诱导速度的等密度面扩散方案(GM).对这两个试验的气候平衡态结果分析发现,该模式较好地模拟出了太平洋的环流特征,包括副热带大涡、副极地涡旋以及南极绕流(ACC)等.赤道附近的各种流系亦得到了较好的模拟,模拟的150°W赤道潜流的最大流速为40 cm/s,出现在次表层130 m左右,虽然模拟值比基于NCEP资料估计的最大流速80 cm/s小,但与其位置十分相近.两个试验均较好地模拟出了温盐的分布结构,包括北太平洋和南太平洋中层水的形成以及南极底层水的输送等.通过详细分析两个试验结果发现,总的说来在目前模式所采用的参数条件下,GM的结果稍好于HOR的结果.这些模拟结果表明,在LICOM基础上构建的太平洋环流模式从总体上是能再现许多观测特征的,可为今后进一步研究被动示踪物在北太平洋的分布等问题提供一个十分有用的工具.     

本世纪海洋云量变化与全球增暖问题

本文分析了1900～1990年间全球海洋总云量。为消除资料序列中非气候因素的影响，序列被分为3个时段进行讨论。发现本世纪内与气候增暖的同时全球海洋云量有明显增加，但云量变化落后于全球平均气温变化1～4年，落后于全球平均海温1～2年，且云与温度变化的关系在不同气候带不同，这可能是不同气候带上主要云型不同，以致产生的辐射强迫效应不同。     

太平洋次表层海温年代际变率及其突变特征

利用经验正交函数展开和滑动t检验等方法研究了太平洋次表层海温的年代际变率特征。研究表明，太平洋次表层海温在19800年前后从上至下，先后经历了一次显著的年代际突变，而且随深度不同存在着四种不同的空间突变模态，这四种模态的形成与北太平洋海温异常的西南潜沉路径有着密切的联系。从北太平洋窗口区潜沉的年代际信号沿西南路径传播到副热带地区，在温跃层160m上下与西太平洋向东北传播的异常信号汇合。因此，北太平洋沿西南潜沉路径传播的年代际信号对ENSO的影响可能是间接的，而热带西南太平洋则可能扮演更为重要的角色。     

Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China

冬季降雪是影响东北地区农业、生态、经济发展的一重大自然灾害。以往研究表明东北冬季降雪在近几十年有着显著的年代际增加,而其降雪强度如何变化,研究相对较少。因此,本文主要分析了近几十年东北地区冬季降雪强度的变化特征及其与前秋北太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,北太平洋海温增暖能够导致东亚和北太平洋上空出现反气旋异常,东北地区盛行南风异常,北风减弱,有利于水汽从南往北输送,从而加强了近几十年来东北地区冬季降雪强度。因此,前秋北太平洋海温可作为东北冬季降雪预测的一个潜在因子。     

Simulation of the 2001–02 Anomalous Intrusion in the Northeast Pacific

Abstract

A numerical model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) was used to run a 46-year simulation of the North Pacific Ocean beginning in January 1960. The model had a horizontal resolution of 0.25°, 28 vertical levels, and employed spectral nudging that, unlike standard nudging, nudges only specific frequency and wavenumber bands. This simulation was nudged to the mean and monthly Levitus climatology of potential temperature and absolute salinity (S_A). The model was forced with the mean monthly winds, sea level pressure, net heat flux, and precipitation from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

The simulation was used to examine the anomalous intrusions, previously observed from 2001 to 2002, of cooler and fresher (less spicy) water flowing southward along the coast of western North America. The simulated anomaly began in 1999 in the North Pacific, progressed southeastward towards the coast and then southward, at least as far south as southern California. The southward velocity signal, modulated by a strong annual cycle, reached Point Conception in 2000 while the temperature and S_A anomalies arrived later, in 2002–03. The simulated velocity anomalies were eastward at about 3?cm s^?1 in the northeast Pacific near 47°N in agreement with observations. Simulated coastal southward flow speeds reached 10–20?cm s^?1 during the summer from 2000 to 2002.

This intrusion was by far the largest to occur over the entire length of the simulation. It was also the only time during the simulation when the Victoria mode was positive (associated with enhanced flow to the east via the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index (MEI) was negative (La Niña conditions), tending to cause a southward flow anomaly along the coast.     

太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展

作者以太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)现象为重点,系统地回顾了太平洋年代际变率观测、模拟和理论研究的国内外进展.在PDO时空结构方面,总结了PDO的基本观测事实,在PDO成因方面,从海洋大气相互作用观点出发比较了三类PDO形成机制的理论或假说,讨论了现有理论或假说中存在的若干问题,并提出了未来研究的方向和需要解决的关键科学问题.作者也简要介绍了东亚及中国气候年代际变化的特征及其和太平洋海表温度异常的联系,并讨论了东亚大气环流异常在PDO形成中的可能作用.     

气候动力学与气候预测理论的研究

主要概述了中国科学院大气物理研究所近些年来在气候动力学与气候预测理论研究领域的若干重要研究进展.通过对气候系统变化多尺度特征及其动力学的分析和研究,提出了一系列气候系统动力学理论,并在此基础上提出了适合于我国季风气候特点的气候预测理论和方法,在国际上率先开展了跨季度数值气候预测,进一步建立了先进、完善的短期数值气候预测系统,并应用于我国夏季旱涝预测业务.这些工作既带有极大的基础性意义,同时也具有巨大的应用价值,为我国大气科学及气候科学乃至环境科学的研究提供了重要工具.     

东北地区春季气温异常环流背景分析

利用东北地区99个测站近40年(1960～2000年)的春季3～5月气温资料与同期全球范围的温度场、高度场、风场资料,分析了东北地区春季冷、暖年的大气环流异常及要素场的空间分布特征。结果表明：冷春年．东北地区处于高度场的负距平中心,中层以上高纬地区有阻高或暖脊维持;东亚大槽指数的高值年对应东北高温,而低值年则对应东北低温;冷、暖春年的温度场的垂直分布十分深厚,冷春年东北地区主要受偏北气流影响,从地面到对流层顶均处于温度负距平中心内,纬向风在东北地区呈正距平分布,西风带势力较强,暖春年则相反。     

An OGCM Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in the Surface-Layer Pacific of the Equatorial Band

l. IntroductionThe physical mechanisms contro1ling t]de El Nifio event have been studied based on ob-servations in the equatorial Pacific (Weare l983; Reed l986; Hayes et al. l99l; McPhadenand Picaut l990; Frankignoul et al. 1996; Weisberg and Wang l997). One of the most impor-tant issues is whether the surface heat flux ojr ocean advective heat fluxes are dominant in con-trolling the sea surface temperature (SST). Some studies indicated that the SST is mainly con-trolled by the surface…     

Explicit Planktic Calcifiers in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model,Version 2.9

Marine calcifiers as a plankton functional type (PFT) are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle, being responsible for much of the carbon export to the deep ocean entering via biological pathways. Deep ocean carbon export through calcifiers is controlled by physiological, ecological, and biogeochemical factors. This paper describes the implementation of a calcifying phytoplankton PFT in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, version 2.9 (UVic ESCM), and mechanistic improvements to the representation of model carbon export (a full calcite tracer, carbonate chemistry dependent calcite dissolution rates, and a ballasting scheme). An iterative method for stabilizing and tuning the biogeochemistry is furthermore described. The UVic ESCM now fills a niche in Earth system modelling that was previously unoccupied in that it is relatively inexpensive to run, yet resolves the complete Earth system carbon cycle including prognostic calcium carbonate and a separate phytoplankton calcifier PFT. The model is now well suited to testing feedbacks between the carbonate and carbon cycles and the climate system as transient simulations. The modifications described improve the UVic ESCM's mechanistic realism without compromising performance with respect to observed carbon and nutrient fluxes. Primary production, export production, particulate organic carbon, and calcite fluxes all fall within independently observed estimates.     

国外关于年代际气候变率的研究

文中指出在气候变率与可预报性研究计划中,列出年代际气候变率及可预报性研究子计划充分显示出这个问题的重要性,回顾并总结了近年来年代际气候变率的研究成果,特别对全球气候变暖、海气相互作用、温盐环流、自然气候变率和ＥＮＳＯ的年代际变率的研究几个重点问题进行了讨论,最后对年代际气候变率研究今后的发展方向提出了看法。     

The response of currents in Trinity Bay,Newfoundland, to local wind forcing

Abstract

Analysis of current measurements taken between June and October 1984 at four moorings in Trinity Bay, Newfoundland, is discussed. The alongshore component of current exhibits baroclinic fluctuations coherent with the along‐bay component of wind stress at periods between 3 and 7 days. A two‐layer model of internal Kelvin waves propagating around the perimeter of an elongated bay and forced by a spatially uniform wind stress is presented. The observations support several features of the model response to wind forcing. Along the side of the bay on which Kelvin waves are incoming, the amplitude of the response increases into the bay and decreases with increasing frequency. Along the outgoing side of the bay the amplitude of the response generally shows a maximum at a frequency between 0.2 and 0.3 cpd. The phase lag between current and wind is consistent with a forced response. An example is given of upwelling and downwelling on opposite sides of the bay in agreement with the model behaviour.     

全球变暖背景下西太平洋副热带高压变化的探讨

为去除全球变暖等压面抬升的影响、客观地反映西太平洋副热带高压的真实变化,本研究使用了1951~2017年NCEP/NCAR的月平均500hPa高度场再分析资料以及国家气候中心提供6~8月的大气环流指数,基于去除全球变暖影响的西太平洋副热带高压表征线,研究探讨了全球变暖背景下西太平洋副热带高压的变化。研究表明,去除全球变暖影响前(后)西太平洋副热带高压有面积指数增大(减小)、强度指数增强(减弱)和西伸脊点指数西伸(东退)的演变特征。可见,全球变暖可能是西太平洋副热带高压面积、强度和东西位置发生变化的原因之一。     

全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟

对一个20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来不同强度降水事件变化进行了分析。以日降水量的大小,将降水划分为不同等级。首先检验了模式对当代(1961—1990年)各等级降水日数的模拟能力,结果表明,与观测相比,模式模拟的小雨事件偏多而大雨事件在南方过少。21世纪末(2071—2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国区域不同强度降水的变化在各地表现不同,同时其对各个地区降水总量变化的贡献也表现出较大不同,但在大部分地区,模式给出了未来强降水事件将增加的结果。     

Enhancement of Winter Arctic Warming by the Siberian High over the Past Decade

In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the years from 1979 to 2003, the first principle component(PC1) of winter Arctic SAT remains stable, and no significant increasing trend is detected. However, the PC1 changes abruptly from negative to positive phase in the winter of 2004. The enhanced Siberian high may have contributed to this abrupt change because the temporal evolution of Arctic temperature correlates significantly with sea level pressure variation in the northern Eurasian continent, and the atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the Siberian high from 2004 to 2013 favors a warmer Arctic. With the help of the meridional wind anomaly around the Siberian high, warmer air is transported to the high latitudes and therefore increases the Arctic temperature.     

Numerical Simulation of the Regional Ocean Circulation in the Coastal Areas of Chinaal

1.IntroductionInrecentyears,manystudiesonthemechanismoftheregionalclimateformationandvariationhavebeendonebyusingnestedhigh--resolutionregionalclimatemodels.TheregionalclimatemodelshavepresentedbetterPerformancesinsimulatingregionalclimatefeaturesthanlarge--scalegeneralcirculationmodels(GCM)becauseoftheaccuraterepresentationsofhigh--resolutiontopography,detailedunderlyingsurfacecharacteristics,landsurfaceprocessesandplanetaryboundarylayerparameterization.However,theoceanpartwithinthemodeldom…     

气候变暖背景下宁夏暴雨日数的变化

By using the summer torrential rain days data in Ningxia,the Yinchuan sounding data and the NCEP/NCAR reaualyzed data,the evolutional characteristics and the cause of torrential rain days in Ningxia were analyzed under the background of climate warming.The results show that both annual torrential rain days and annual mean temperature displayed consistent increasing trends.Further analysis results indicate that atmospheric potential instability has grown in the daytime in both July and August and in the nighttime in July,but weakened in the nighttime in August after the climate warming of Ningxia.Therefore,the climate warming not only caused more distinctive diurnal variation of the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperatures in Yinchuan,but also resulted in the increase of torrential rain days and in more obvious diurnal variation of the torrential rain in Ningxia.