Identifying flood-prone landfills at different spatial scales

Landfills are mainly located in lowland areas close to settlements inducing flood risk of potential environmental contamination and adverse health effects. During recent flood events, numerous landfill sites were reportedly exposed to inundations, leading to erosion of landfilled material and release of pollutants threatening humans and the environment. Although emissions from landfills under regular operating conditions are well investigated, the behaviour and associated emissions in case of flooding are widely unknown. To enable environmental risk management, flood-prone landfills must be identified to establish priorities for subsequent protection and mitigation measures. This paper presents two flood risk assessment approaches at different spatial scales: a macro-scale assessment approach (MaSA) and a micro-scale assessment approach (MiSA). Both methodologies aim to determine the proportion of landfills endangered by flooding, and evaluate the impacts. The latter are expressed by means of risk categories (minor to serious) of impacts that flooded sites might have on humans and the environment. The evaluation of 1,064 landfills in Austria based on MaSA yields roughly 30 % of landfills located within or close to flood risk zones. Material inventories of 147 sites exposed to flooding are established, and potential emissions during a flood event are estimated. Three representative case study areas are selected and investigated in detail by applying the MiSA approach based on 2D hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios to validate the macro-scale screening approach (MaSA). The applications of MiSA and MaSA outlines that hazardous emissions due to flooding can lead to significant impacts on the environment. Uncertainty associated with related processes and data sources is considerably high. Nevertheless, both MiSA and MaSA provide a decision support tool to identify landfills with imminent risk for humans and the environment. Therefore, the described methodologies provide toolsets to enable environmental risk reduction by applying a priority-ranked flood risk management.     

Large wood transport as significant influence on flood risk in a mountain village

An important issue that is not considered in most flood risk assessments in mountain villages in Spain is the transport of solids associated with the flood flow, in this case, large wood transport. The transport and deposition of this wood in urban areas may be a potentially worse hazard than the flood flow itself. Despite its importance, large wood is a key ecological element in rivers, so removing it could be an unsuccessful approach. Therefore, efforts are needed in the better understanding of wood transport and deposition in streams. To analyse this process, scenario-based 2D hydrodynamic flood modelling was carried out. Since flood risk assessment has considerable intrinsic uncertainty, probabilistic thinking was complemented by possibilistic thinking, considering worst-case scenarios. This procedure obtained a probabilistic flood map for a 500-year return period. Then, a series of scenarios was built based on wood budget to simulate wood transport and deposition. Results allowed us to identify the main infrastructures sensitive to the passing of large wood and simulate the consequences of their blockage due to wood. The potential damage was estimated as well as the preliminary social vulnerability for all scenarios (with and without wood transport). This work shows that wood transport and deposition during flooding may increase potential damage at critical stream configurations (bridges) by up to 50 % and the number of potentially exposed people nearby these areas by up to 35 %.     

Rapid analysis of risk assessment using developed simulation of chemical industrial accidents software package

The environmental consequences are defined as consequences of accidental release of hazardous substances to the natural environment. This release can lead to many hazards depending on the material stored. The consequences of these hazards to the environment are widespread and have significant importance to human communities living in the surroundings. The mathematical models are extremely useful tools to predict the impacts of chemical process accidents. The objective of this paper is to develop a software package for accident simulation and damage potential estimation. The software is coded in visual basic and is compatible with windows working environments. The software is called Simulation of chemical industrial accident. This application is a comprehensive software package which can be integrated with geographical information system to predict and display the consequence of chemical hazards. The software is a user-friendly and effective tool for evaluating the consequences of major chemical accidents, process decision making for land-use planning, namely locating suitable hazardous installations, hazardous waste disposal areas and emergency response plan.     

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.     

Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment.     

Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding

This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential.     

A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.     

Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.     

Vulnerability of groundwater in an industrial (Bauxite) valley of Lanjigarh (Orissa), India

Groundwater, particularly in the shallow zone aquifer is an easily available source of freshwater that serves various needs of people around it. Due to rapid growth in the industrial sector, the shallow groundwater regime becomes vulnerable to industrial toxicity and human activity. In the case of bauxite ore processing industry it is not only the groundwater potential that gets affected, but often the quality of groundwater is at risk from the ore processing activity. Bauxite processing plant has been setup in the Lanjigarh (Orissa State), India during 2007. An attempt has been made to evaluate the groundwater regime in the watershed that comprises the plant and its various disposal sites. Although the groundwater has not been found affected due to waste disposals, however, areas vulnerable to pollution have been demarcated.     

Hazardous waste landfill site selection in Khorasan Razavi Province, Northeastern Iran

The disposal is the final step of any hazardous waste management plan. An inappropriate landfill site may have negative environmental, economical, and ecological impacts. Therefore, landfills should be sited carefully by taking into account various rules, regulations, factors, and constraints. In this study, candidate sites for hazardous landfills in the northeastern Khorasan Razavi province are determined using the integration of geographic information system and landfill susceptibility zonation methods. For this, the inappropriate areas were first removed from the model, and the suitability of remaining regions were evaluated using 15 different criteria in two steps. With this done, nine candidate sites were selected as the most suitable locations. Finally, the selected landfill sites were proposed based on environmental impact assessment (Leopold matrix) and economical studies. This study shows that Maasumabad, Kheirabad, Mayamey, and Yonsi are the best locations for the constitution of landfill in Khorasan Razavi province, respectively.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura,Japan

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.     

Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China

Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing, Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million Yuan RMB/km² in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km², and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km². The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian, and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses.     

Analysis of flood vulnerability and assessment of the impacts in coastal zones of Bangladesh due to potential sea-level rise

The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR). The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation. The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic impact.     

Flood hazard assessment with multiparameter approach derived from coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model

Hydrodynamic flow modeling is carried out using a coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model in northern India where an industrial plant is proposed. Two flooding scenarios, one considering the flooding source at regional/catchment level and another considering all flooding sources at local level have been simulated. For simulating flooding scenario due to flooding of the upstream catchment, the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the main river is routed and its flooding impact at the plant site is studied, while at the local level flooding, in addition to PMF in the main river, the probable maximum precipitation at the plant site and breaches in the canals near the plant site have been considered. The flood extent, depth, level, duration and maximum flow velocity have been computed. Three parameters namely the flood depth, cross product of flood depth and velocity and flood duration have been used for assessing the flood hazard, and a flood hazard classification scheme has been proposed. Flood hazard assessment for flooding due to upstream catchment and study on local scale facilitates determination of plinth level for the plant site and helps in identifying the flood protection measures.     

People at Risk of Flooding: Why Some Residents Take Precautionary Action While Others Do Not

Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households’ prevention of damage by natural hazards is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage prevention by residents’ perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection, the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents’ age, gender, income, school degree and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model, with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures.     

Sulfur based hazardous waste solidification

Existing uses for sulfur are relatively advanced and offer limited opportunities to consume significant new supplies. Currently, sulfur is in net surplus on a global basis, and with environmental regulations, greater sulfur recovery from petroleum and gas processing is mandated. The outlook is clear: there will be substantial and growing surpluses in global sulfur supply in the foreseeable future. Sulfur prices are likely to be under pressure, and producers could face substantial and growing disposal fees. Therefore, new markets must be found for sulfur to avoid disposal crises. One potential new market is the production of sulfur-solidified concrete. This is a thermoplastic composite of mineral aggregates bound together with chemically modified sulfur. The product is more durable than Portland cement. There may be monetizeable benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions that would enhance the attraction of sulfur solidified cement applications. The main objective of this study is to evaluate experimentally the potential use of sulfur as a solidifying agent for hazardous waste. To achieve this objective, the study reviewed the sulfur concrete literature, analyzed locally produced sulfur, evaluated a number of sulfur polymer modifiers and physical stabilizing agents, designed a set of experiments and evaluated the produced product for its hydro-mechanical-chemical properties. The results indicated that the manufactured sulfur polymer cement is an excellent candidate for: waste management practices such as solidification/stabilization of hazardous waste; barrier systems for landfilling of hazardous waste; and waste water treatment plants.     

A geo-environmental map for the sustainable development of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

An engineering and environmental geological map of the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal has been elaborated within a project of German-Nepalese cooperation. In the Kathmandu Valley, the major geo-environmental problems arise from haphazard exploitation of geologic resources, local landslide zones, severe problems of garbage disposal, river flooding and a dramatic river pollution. The map was prepared by the use of GIS techniques. It contains all basic geological and environmental data, as geotechnical risk zones (landslide-prone areas or those of poor foundation conditions), areas for preferable extraction of construction material and those not to be allowed to be exploited, areas of immediate need of reforestation in order to prevent landslide or badland development, groundwater protection zones, and suitable garbage disposal sites. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Environmental geological assessment of a solid waste disposal site: a case study in Sivas, Turkey

The selection of the disposal site is probably the most important step in the development of solid waste management. In site selection, geology plays a determining role. This study evaluates the characteristics of the environment on the basis of the geological, hydrogeological and geo-engineering properties of the solid waste site of the Sivas city, Turkey. The area is underlain by the Oligocene-Miocene rocks which have limited aquifer properties. Thin Quaternary alluvium and soil cover overlie the Oligo-Miocene rocks, which are represented as well graded sand and inorganic silt of low plasticity. The Quaternary alluvium and soil cover are classified as inorganic clays having a low plasticity and the permeability varies from 1.2×10⁻⁶ to 3.11×10⁻⁶ m/s. These values are much higher than 1×10⁻⁸ m/s, which is accepted for waste disposal standards. Seepage waters have a potential to pollute the ground water and the Kızılırmak River, which is 500 m to the southwest of the waste disposal area and because the disposal site is close to the river, the potential for flash flooding poses a high pollution risk. The waste disposal area must be covered by clay layers or an impervious artificial membrane. In addition, seepage must be controlled and removed from the site.     

Preliminary flood risk assessment: the case of Athens

Flood mapping, especially in urban areas, is a demanding task requiring substantial (and usually unavailable) data. However, with the recent introduction of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), the need for reliable, but cost effective, risk mapping at the regional scale is rising in the policy agenda. Methods are therefore required to allow for efficiently undertaking what the Directive terms “preliminary flood risk assessment,” in other words a screening of areas that could potentially be at risk of flooding and that consequently merit more detailed attention and analysis. Such methods cannot rely on modeling, as this would require more data and effort that is reasonable for this high-level, screening phase. This is especially true in urban areas, where modeling requires knowledge of the detailed urban terrain, the drainage networks, and their interactions. A GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment methodology was therefore developed and applied for the mapping of flood risk in urban areas. This approach quantifies the spatial distribution of flood risk and is able to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to examine their influence on the overall flood risk assessment. It can further assess the spatially variable reliability of the resulting maps on the basis of the choice of method used to develop the maps. The approach is applied to the Greater Athens area and validated for its central and most urban part. A GIS database of economic, social, and environmental criteria contributing to flood risk was created. Three different multicriteria decision rules (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Weighted Linear Combination and Ordered Weighting Averaging) were applied, to produce the overall flood risk map of the area. To implement this methodology, the IDRISI Andes GIS software was customized and used. It is concluded that the results of the analysis are a reasonable representation of actual flood risk, on the basis of their comparison with historical flood events.