Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.     

TRMM多卫星降水数据在黑河流域的验证与应用

利用黑河流域9个气象台站降水数据, 在不同时间尺度和空间分布上分析了2008-2011年TRMM多卫星降水数据(TMPA 3B43)在黑河流域的适用性.结果表明: 用TMPA估测的年降水量在黑河流域平均高估27.3%, 对上游降水量大的山区估测相对好于降水稀少的黑河下游地区; TMPA与气象站降水量的拟合优度夏季(R²=0.851)高于冬季(R²=0.332); TMPA可以较好反映各测站降水量年变化、 月变化趋势, 用TMPA估测的黑河流域平均年降水量变化趋势为30 mm·(10 a)^-1. 黑河流域年降水量体现出随海拔高度的递增规律(11.1 mm·(100 m)^-1)、 从东向西降水量逐渐减少的分布以及最大降水高度带出现在上游偏东地区(海拔2 800~4 900 m).     

Rainfall thresholds for flood triggering. The case of Marathonas in Greece

Basins across Mediterranean coast are often subject to rapid inundation phenomena caused by intense rainfall events. In this flash flooding regime, common practices for risk mitigation involve hydraulic modeling, geomorphic, and hydrologic analysis. However, apart from examining the intrinsic characteristics of a basin, realistic flood hazard assessment requires good understanding of the role of climatic forcing. In this work, peak rainfall intensities, total storm accumulation, average intensity, and antecedent moisture conditions of the 52 most important storms in record, during the period from 1993 to 2008, in northeast Attica, in Greece, are examined to investigate whether there is a correlation between specific rainfall conditions and flood triggering in the area. For this purpose, precipitation data from a network of five rain gauges installed across the study area were collected and analyzed. Storms totals, average intensity, antecedent moisture conditions, and peak intensities variations were calculated and compared with local flooding history. Results showed that among these rainfall measures, only peak storm intensity presents a significant correlation with flood triggering, and a rainfall threshold above which flooding becomes highly probable can be defined.     

基于生态流量阈值的河流水文健康演变定量归因

环境变化改变了河流水文情势,影响了河流的生态系统健康,亟需开展变化环境下河流水文健康演变定量归因方法研究。选取北方半干旱地区老哈河流域为研究区,依据流域内3个水文站、17个雨量站和6个气象站1964—2016年数据,基于可变下渗容量模型还原河流的天然流量序列;采用概率密度法计算河流生态流量,基于生态流量阈值推求河流水文健康等级;基于"观测-模拟"对比分析法,定量分离气候变化和人类活动对河流水文健康情势的影响。结果表明:人类活动是甸子和太平庄子流域自1980年以来河流水文健康情势退化的主要原因,其贡献率分别为86.9%和87.9%;大面积农业灌溉用水引起地表径流下降以及水利工程改变天然水文情势,影响了河流水文健康情势;90年代降水量较为充沛,研究流域受人类活动影响程度较小,河流水文健康等级维持在较高的水平。综合生态流量阈值和"观测-模拟"对比分析方法可定量识别河流水文健康情势演变原因,为适应环境变化的河流健康管理提供科学依据。     

Characterization of groundwater chemistry under the influence of lithologic and anthropogenic factors along a climatic gradient in Upper Cauvery basin, South India

Hydrogeological and climatic effect on chemical behavior of groundwater along a climatic gradient is studied along a river basin. ‘Semi-arid’ (500–800 mm of mean annual rainfall), ‘sub-humid’ (800–1,200 mm/year) and ‘humid’ (1,200–1,500 mm/year) are the climatic zones chosen along the granito-gneissic plains of Kabini basin in South India for the present analysis. Data on groundwater chemistry is initially checked for its quality using NICB ratio (<±5 %), EC versus TZ+ (~0.85 correlation), EC versus TDS and EC versus TH analysis. Groundwater in the three climatic zones is ‘hard’ to ‘very hard’ in terms of Ca–Mg hardness. Polluted wells are identified (>40 % of pollution) and eliminated for the characterization. Piper’s diagram with mean concentrations indicates the evolution of CaNaHCO₃ (semi-arid) from CaHCO₃ (humid zone) along the climatic gradient. Carbonates dominate other anions and strong acids exceeded weak acids in the region. Mule Hole SEW, an experimental watershed in sub-humid zone, is characterized initially using hydrogeochemistry and is observed to be a replica of entire sub-humid zone (with 25 wells). Extension of the studies for the entire basin (120 wells) showed a chemical gradient along the climatic gradient with sub-humid zone bridging semi-arid and humid zones. Ca/Na molar ratio varies by more than 100 times from semi-arid to humid zones. Semi-arid zone is more silicaceous than sub-humid while humid zone is more carbonaceous (Ca/Cl ~14). Along the climatic gradient, groundwater is undersaturated (humid), saturated (sub-humid) and slightly supersaturated (semi-arid) with calcite and dolomite. Concentration–depth profiles are in support of the geological stratification i.e., ~18 m of saprolite and ~25 m of fracture rock with parent gneiss beneath. All the wells are classified into four groups based on groundwater fluctuations and further into ‘deep’ and ‘shallow’ based on the depth to groundwater. Higher the fluctuations, larger is its impact on groundwater chemistry. Actual seasonal patterns are identified using ‘recharge–discharge’ concept based on rainfall intensity instead of traditional monsoon–non-monsoon concept. Non-pumped wells have low Na/Cl and Ca/Cl ratios in recharge period than in discharge period (Dilution). Few other wells, which are subjected to pumping, still exhibit dilution chemistry though water level fluctuations are high due to annual recharge. Other wells which do not receive sufficient rainfall and are constantly pumped showed high concentrations in recharge period rather than in discharge period (Anti-dilution). In summary, recharge–discharge concept demarcates the pumped wells from natural deep wells thus, characterizing the basin.     

Chemical flushing from an urban-fringe watershed: hydrologic and riparian soil dynamics

The goal of the current study is to better understand the role of storm dynamics on stream water chemical variability in a highly polluted urban-fringe watershed. The study was conducted in the upper reach of the Arroyo Seco watershed located on the eastern edge of the densely urbanized Los Angeles basin in California. During the 2008–2009 study period, high-frequency stream water observations of chloride, fluoride, sulfate, and nitrate were monitored through a series of storm events and were compared to pre- and post-winter storm season geochemical soil profiles. Of the four solutes measured, nitrate demonstrated hydrologically enhanced behavior. Chloride, fluoride, and sulfate exhibited enhanced behavior initially (first flush), but transitioned to dilution behavior as the season progressed. Soil chemistry analyses in the riparian zone confirmed the abundance of nitrate on the soil surface, serving as a source for stream water nitrate. Observations and analyses collectively suggest that the chemical variability observed during the storms is dependent not only on discharge, but also on the magnitude and intensity of rainfall, the length of the antecedent dry period, and riparian soil composition. A further understanding of these factors will ultimately improve geochemical models for prediction of downstream chemical loads from regional urban-fringe watersheds.     

城市降水径流的污染来源与排放特征研究进展

综述了城市地表径流污染的成因、来源和排放特征的研究.城市降水径流污染来自3个方面:降水、城市地表和排水系统.其中,城市地表和排水系统是城市降水径流污染的主要来源.在具合流制排水系统的城市,20%~60%的径流污染(SS、COD和BOD₅)来自排水系统.在一次降雨过程中,城市降雨径流污染的排放一般存在初期冲刷效应,径流中污染物浓度的峰值一般提前于径流的峰值.但是由于影响初期冲刷效应的因素多而随机,使得初期冲刷出现的频率和程度存在明显的差异,而且很难建立初期冲刷与降雨特征和流域特征的通用关系.     

基于暴雨衰减特性的上海市长历时综合暴雨公式

编制适用于不同历时的综合暴雨公式是协调城市管网排水与区域防洪治涝的重要基础。选用上海市代表雨量站徐家汇站65 a实测雨量资料,建立不同重现期暴雨强度与历时关系,解析暴雨衰减规律,编制单一重现期暴雨公式,结合雨力公式推求适用不同重现期的长历时综合暴雨公式,并推导出暴雨重现期公式。结果表明:不同重现期1~24 h历时暴雨强度均以0.74的衰减指数衰减,据此推求的长历时综合暴雨公式可计算1~24 h任意历时、2~100 a任意重现期的设计暴雨,且平均相对和平均绝对均方根误差分别为1.9%和0.009 mm/min,符合规范要求;暴雨重现期公式可估算1~24 h历时内任意场次暴雨的重现期,高效地服务于城市洪涝防治决策。成果已纳入上海市治涝地方标准,对其他城市具有参考价值。     

A comparison of TRMM to other basin-scale estimates of rainfall during the 1999 Hurricane Floyd flood

The volumetric rainfall attributed to Hurricane Floyd in 1999 was computed for the bulk of the Tar, Neuse, and Cape Fear River Basins in eastern North Carolina, USA from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research product, and compared with volumes computed using kriged gauge data and one centrally located radar. TMPA showed similar features in the band of heaviest rainfall with kriged and radar data, but was higher in the basin-scale integrations. Furthermore, Floyd’s direct runoff volumes were computed and divided by the volumetric rainfall estimates to give runoff coefficients for the three basins. The TMPA, having the larger storm totals, would suggest greater infiltration during Floyd than the gauge and radar estimates would. Finally, we discuss a concept for adjusting the United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service rainfall-runoff model when predicting discharge values from real-time TMPA in ungauged river basins.

Inconsistency in rainfall characteristics estimated from records of different rain gauges

The goal of this work is to assess the effect of utilizing different types of tipping bucket rain gauges in investigating rainfall characteristics. A dual tipping bucket (TB) rain gauge station is installed in the upper catchment of Numan basin in Saudi Arabia. The main difference between the two gauges is that the Hydrological Services (HS) gauge is equipped with a siphon tube which reduces undercatchment particularly during heavy rainfall. Records of both gauges for the period 2006 to 2013 are collected, analyzed, and compared, focusing on the characteristics of rainfall events as well as rainfall temporal variability. The HS gauge recorded higher values of total rainfall depth compared to the Texas Electronics (TEMM) gauge. For the individual storms as well as the 5-min rainfall, HS gauge also reported higher mean rainfall depths. Regarding temporal characteristics of reported rainfall, no significant variations are observed between the values of storm duration of the two gauges. The TEMM gauge has the advantage of recoding more storms with depth less than 1 mm. The current study suggests the use of a corrective factor for rainfall record of the TEMM gauge.     

GPM和TRMM卫星日降水数据在黄河源区的适用性分析

通过评估GPM计划三种日降水产品（IMERG-E、 IMERG-L和IMERG-F）和TRMM卫星、 两种日降水产品（TMPA 3B42和TMPA 3B42RT）在黄河源及其周边区域38个台站的适用性, 探究了五种产品探测精度和海拔高度及雨强的相关关系, 结果表明： 在与实测资料的一致性和偏差方面, GPM卫星产品要全面优于TMPA产品。在TRMM卫星产品中, 3B42产品明显优于3B42RT。五种产品的相关系数均表现出明显的从东南到西北递减的趋势, 均方根误差北部普遍低于南部。IMERG产品的探测率（POD）和探测成功率（CSI）都要普遍高于TMPA产品, 而误报率（FAR）则是TMPA 产品更低, 表现更好。五种产品均在个别台站出现了严重误报的情况, 这些台站主要分布在研究区的西北部。IMERG三种产品对于海拔高度的依赖程度具有很强的一致性, 而3B42RT产品对海拔高度几乎没有依赖。除3B42RT产品外, 其余四种产品的偏差均随雨强的增加而增大。在探测率方面, IMERG产品对小雨、 中雨和大雨的探测能力均优于TMPA产品。     

长三角地区典型海绵设施水文效益试验研究

开展不同海绵设施在中国长三角气候模式下的水文效益研究, 对增强城市应对内涝能力从而提高城市对变化环境的适应性具有重要科学意义。选择国家首批海绵试点城市镇江海绵基地4种典型海绵设施作为研究案例, 采用径流系数、削减率、削峰率及洪峰流量等指标, 评估场次降雨与海绵设施出流相关性, 分析海绵设施在不同降水量级和降雨雨型下的水文性能, 以及运行时间对海绵设施水文效益的影响。结果表明: ①透水铺装类海绵设施的降雨—径流关系呈单一式; 而绿植类则表现为分段式, 即在场次降水量超过一定临界暴雨量之后关系线发生转折, 其中平均径流系数增加了8.4~38.5倍, 平均削峰率和削减率分别减少了50.4%和44.6%。②暴雨条件下不同海绵设施的产流能力和洪峰流量最大, 对径流总量消减能力及洪峰流量削减能力最弱, 且从暴雨到大雨变化规律比大雨到中雨变化规律更显著。③海绵设施的水文性能受到降雨雨型、平均降雨强度和最大单位降雨强度等因子多重复合影响。除雨水花园外, 其他海绵设施的径流系数对上述影响因子变化最为敏感, 洪峰流量次之, 削减率第3, 削峰率的敏感性显著低于前面三者。④车行透水砖运行1 a后, 其产流能力与洪峰流量分别显著增加1.7~2.1倍和1.9~2.5倍; 径流控制能力显著减弱, 其中消减能力降低了16%。     

Distribution of stable isotopes in arid storms

 Temporal distributions of the isotopic composition in arid rain storms and in the associated runoff were investigated in a small arid rocky basin in Israel. Customized rain and runoff samplers provided sequential water samples hermetically sealed in high-density PVC bags. In several storms where the runoff was isotopically depleted, compared with the rainfall, the difference could not be explained by fractionation effects occurring during overland flow. A water-balance study relating the runoff discharge to rainfall over a rocky watershed showed that the entire discharge is produced by a very small segment (1–2 mm) of the rain storm. The major objective, therefore, was to provide quantitative relations between segments of rainfall (rain showers and rain spells) and runoff. The time distribution of the composition of stable isotopes (oxygen and hydrogen) was used to quantify the correlation between the rain spell's amount and the consequent runoff. The aim of this work was to (a) utilize the dynamic variations in the isotopic composition in rainfall and runoff and model the magnitude of surface-storage capacity associated with runoff processes of overland flow, and (b) characterize the isotopic composition of the percolating water with respect to the isotopic distribution in rainfall and runoff events. The conceptual model postulates an isotopic mixing of overland flow with water within the depression storage. A transport model was then formulated in order to estimate the physical watershed parameters that control the development of overland flow from a certain rainfall period. Part I (this paper) presents the results and the assessment of the relative depression storage obtained from oxygen-18 and deuterium analyses that lead to the physical and mathematical formulation of a double-component model of kinematic-wave flow and transport, which is presented in Part II (accompanying paper). Received, February 1997 · Revised, September 1997 · Accepted, September 1997     

廊坊市北运河、潮白河暴雨洪水分析

近年来北京城区高速发展和大面积的范围扩张,这种开发建设形式使得原有城市内及周边地区的生态遭受到严重破坏,城市下垫面被大量混凝土、沥青和不透水砖覆盖,使得城市原有的暴雨径流条件改变。地处北京城区下游的廊坊市北运河、潮白河流域更是面临着较大的防汛压力,本次分析计算建立了北京城区平均降雨~北运河及潮白河洪量总和之间的关系,为今后进行更加准确、及时的洪峰、洪量预报,来降低甚至防止发生廊坊市北运河、潮白河所在地区暴雨洪水灾害的可能性打下基础。     

On the rainfall asymmetry and distribution in tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using TMPA and GPM rainfall products

In the present study, we have used TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) 3B42 and global precipitation mission (GPM): IMERG “precipitation Cal” products to identify and quantify the asymmetry and distribution of rainfall in tropical cyclones formed over Bay of Bengal (BoB). For the period 2010–2013, TMPA products have been made use of and for the period 2014–2017, GPM–IMERG products are used to study the aforementioned features. Overall, 17 cyclones covering 75 events/days ranging from depression to very severe cyclonic stage of the system have been analysed. Our analysis revealed some interesting features on asymmetry, direction of maximum rain-receiving zones, relation of T-number with maximum and total rainfall in rain-receiving areas. The study reveals the direction of rainfall zone is mostly towards west and southwest directions of the storm centre in BoB. This point gains importance in the context of earlier reports, where it is mentioned that the direction of maximum rainfall is in east. The study also infers that the maximum rainfall and total rainfall need not be dependent on the intensity (indicated by T-number). We also attempted to classify the rain-receiving zones, based on both the rainfall-rate window and area covered in each window of rainfall, and a criterion has been proposed. The distribution of rainfall is classified, as sharply falling, slowly falling and nearly constant.     

TRMM3B42降雨数据在渭河流域的应用分析

运用渭河流域24个气象站点日降雨数据对2001~2012年热带测雨卫星(TRMM)3B42数据在不同子流域、不同降雨强度以及不同时间尺度的精度进行了对比验证,并对比分析了基于TRMM和站点数据的渭河流域降雨时空分布特征。结果显示:在不同子流域的日TRMM数据比站点观测数据对低值降雨更为敏感,而在极大值降雨数据观测上两者差距较大,月尺度TRMM站点观测数据确定性系数在0.89到0.96之间;两种数据在流域降雨的时空分布上表现一致性,在年内6月中旬~10月初为湿润多雨期,其余月份降雨较少,空间分布呈东南部大,西北部小的格局。     

Early warning system for detection of urban pluvial flooding hazard levels in an ungauged basin

Prolonged and high intensity rainfall often saturates urban drainage systems and generates urban pluvial flooding, resulting in hazardous flash floods. The city most affected by urban flooding in Colombia (South America) is Barranquilla since lacks a proper storm water drainage system. Heavy rainfall produces flash floods to quickly become torrential streams that flow down the streets endangering pedestrians. This research describes a low-cost early warning system (EWS) to detect in real time the hazard level of a stream in an ungauged basin. The EWS indicates whether it is safe or not for pedestrians to cross a flooded street, based on certain criteria used to assess the hazard level of the torrent. A hydrological and hydraulic model calculates the flow, velocity and water level in all cross sections along the stream. The model uses only real-time measurements of rain gauges and topographic survey data to determine the hazard level. Finally, a wireless sensor network sends the alert to a web platform and warns the community in real time.

     

Analysis of a major storm over the Dongjiang reservoir basin associated with Typhoon Bilis (2006)

An unexpected major storm on July 14, 2006, resulted in great loss to the Dongjiang reservoir basin in Zixing City, Hunan Province, China, during the dominance of Typhoon Bilis (2006). The rainfall characteristics and temporal evolution of this major storm were studied with rain gauge data and high-resolution radar reflectivity data to investigate the connections between typhoon, reservoir and convective storm. Our investigations found that the intense convective storm, which was characterized by a banded structure, brought heavy rainfall concentrated in the Dongjiang reservoir basin while the center of Typhoon Bilis was nearly 450 km away from the basin. By applying geographical information system techniques, analyses of radar reflectivity demonstrated that the topography of the Dongjiang reservoir has big influence on the development of convective storm. Furthermore, intense convective cells with strong radar reflectivity (>50 dBZ) arose more frequently over the edges of the reservoir, especially over the southern mountain valley in the basin. More importantly, our investigations indicate that the occurrence of this convective storm is closely related to a strong atmospheric inversion by examining the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data.     

Comparison of TRMM-based flood indices for Gaziantep,Turkey

Floods are the most common natural disasters threatening the welfare of humanity. Gaziantep, a city located in a semi-arid region of Turkey, is occasionally flooded, and in May 2014, a flood not only caused property damage, but also resulted in the death of a lady who became trapped in flood waters. The fatality and property damage of flash floods arise from the limited response time for remediation. Despite improvements in numerical weather predictions, forecasting flash floods is not easy. Due to its frequent observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time (RT) 3B42RT data are tested for Gaziantep flood predictions in this study. During TRMM era, six floods occurred in Gaziantep. Three-hourly 3B42RT data covering the 2000- to 2014-year period indicated high rain rates during months in which floods were observed. Also daily variation of rainfall was well represented. High-intensity rain (HIR), cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and Gaziantep Flood Index (GAFI) indices are developed for flood characterization. HIR, calculated as 10 mm/h, detected October and December of 2010 floods. CDFs with 99, 98.5, 95 and 91.3% indicated 4 floods occurred in August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010, respectively. GAFI was able to detect 4 out of 6 occurrences (August 2005, June 2007, October 2010 and December 2010) as values ranging from 1 to 2.63 are selected for monthly precipitation. In the missed occurrence, 3B42RT did not indicate any rainfall. Although only rain rates are used in flood characterization, the results are promising, and the simplicity of the methodology favors its usage. Also, methodology can easily be implemented to TRMM following missions such as Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.