Computer Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation

The method of making quantitative assessments of mineral resources sufficiently detailed for economic analysis is outlined in three steps. The steps are (1) determination of types of deposits that may be present in an area, (2) estimation of the numbers of deposits of the permissible deposit types, and (3) combination by Monte Carlo simulation of the estimated numbers of deposits with the historical grades and tonnages of these deposits to produce a probability distribution of the quantities of contained metal.Two examples of the estimation of the number of deposits (step 2) are given. The first example is for mercury deposits in southwestern Alaska and the second is for lode tin deposits in the Seward Peninsula.The flow of the Monte Carlo simulation program is presented with particular attention to the dependencies between grades and tonnages of deposits and between grades of different metals in the same deposit.     

The environmental impact of small-scale gold mining in Ghana: identifying problems and possible solutions

This paper examines the environmental impacts of small-scale gold mining in Ghana, and prescribes a series of recommendations for improving environmental performance in the industry. Since the enactment of the Small Scale Gold Mining Law in 1989, which effectively legalized small-scale gold mining in the country, industrial operations, collectively, have made important contributions to national gold output, foreign exchange earnings and employment. Accompanying this pattern of socio-economic growth, however, have been increased environmental complications – namely, mercury pollution and land degradation. The Ghanaian Minerals Commission has been burdened with most of the jurisdictional responsibilities related to small-scale mining, but with a staff of only 35–40 people working with a pool of highly obsolete research resources, it is clearly incapable of facilitating sufficient environmental improvement on its own. It is concluded that marked environmental improvements can only be achieved if: (1) assistance is provided to the Minerals Commission from local governmental bodies and academic units; (2) industry-specific environmental management tools and strategies are designed and implemented; (3) concerted effort is made to prospect for deposits suitable for small-scale gold mining, a key to preventing unnecessary exploration; and (4) a nation-wide industrial mercury study is commissioned, and a mercury retorting programme is implemented.     

Conditional estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits

A desirable guide for estimating the number of undiscovered mineral deposits is the number of known deposits per unit area from another well-explored permissive terrain. An analysis of the distribution of 805 podiform chromite deposits among ultramafic rocks in 12 subareas of Oregon and 27 counties of California is used to examine and extend this guide. The average number of deposits in this sample of 39 areas is 0.225 deposits per km² of ultramafic rock; the frequency distribution is significantly skewed to the right. Probabilistic estimates can be made by using the observation that the lognormal distribution fits the distribution of deposits per unit area. A further improvement in the estimates is available by using the relationship between the area of ultramafic rock and the number of deposits.The number (N) of exposed podiform chromite deposits can be estimated by the following relationship: log₁₀(N)=–0.194+0.577 log₁₀(area of ultramafic rock). The slope is significantly different from both 0.0 and 1.0. Because the slope is less than 1.0, the ratio of deposits to area of permissive rock is a biased estimator when the area of ultramafic rock is different from the median 93 km². Unbiased estimates of the number of podiform chromite deposits can be made with the regression equation and 80 percent confidence limits presented herein.     

The Distribution of Air Pollution in California: A Study in Spatial Interaction

Abstract

The landscape diversity of California provides abundant opportunity for the geographical investigation of physical and cultural problems. Air pollution has been one major environmental problem long identified in California. With relatively rapid population growth and urban development over the 1940 to 1970 period, the problem seems to have intensified. The map of air quality prepared by Middleton provided an initial geographical portrayal of the problem of air quality in California and gave particular attention to the existence of several centers of relatively high air pollution concentration (Figure 1).¹

The purpose of the following will be to discuss the distribution of air pollution in California through (1) the introduction of a method of measurement of the distribution of air quality, and (2) the explanation of the distribution interms of a spatial interaction model of air quality.     

California's population geography: lessons for a fourth grade class

Purpose of this paper is to present a model for teaching fourth grade children some aspects of the population geography of California from a nontextual approach. The objective is to interest and instruct children in the mobility of the people, and on the reasons why so many families have moved to California from other states. Students should be alerted not only to internal migration problems, but to the excess of births over deaths. Materials necessary for the lessons are transparencies, overhead projector, marking pencils, chalk and chalkboard. After showing the students that California population has approximately doubled every 20 years, the students should be encouraged to find reasons explaining why people have moved to the state, should be able to categorize those reasons under the terms industrial/manufacturing, agricultural, urban or recreational, should learn how to plot population distribution on a California regional outline map, and should attempt to explain why certain parts of California are more popular than others. The teaching model described in this paper may be replicated with modfications for any grade level and area of study.     

GLACIAL GEOMORPHOLOGY OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS,CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA: ESTABLISHMENT OF A GLACIAL CHRONOLOGY

The White Mountains, astride the California-Nevada stateline, are the highest and westernmost of the Great Basin ranges. This range was extensively glaciated during the Quaternary Period. Glacial landforms and scattered erratics were identified in the field using primarily morpho-and lithostratigraphic criteria, and mapped on aerial photographs and topographic maps. Topographic characteristics of the glacial deposits were analyzed using standard statistical procedures. A sequence of glacial deposits was identified in terms of six glacial stages, these glaciations named according to type site, and relative ages inferred. With the exception of perched Stage I (early) deposits along the range crest, reconstructed equilibrium-line altitudes and elevation of the glacier termini increase to the present, with glacier length and inferred size decreasing through time. Preliminary data suggest that weathering and pedogenesis are also progressive, though environmental gradients mask some of these distinctions between deposits. It is hypothesized that the White Mountains have a similar glacial chronology to the adjacent Sierra Nevada, but that with the intensification of the Sierran rainshadow during the Quaternary, the extent of glaciation in the White Mountains apparently decreased through time owing to regional tectonic uplift. This had led to the preservation of a more complete sequence of glacial deposits than in the Sierra Nevada, making the delineation of multiple mid-Quaternary events possible in many valleys. Further radiometric and chronometric dating of these deposits is in progress. [Key words: Glaciation, Quaternary, glacial geomorphology, White Mountains, California, Nevada.     

Revisiting William Morris Davis and Walther Penck to Propose a General Model of Slope ‘Evolution’ in Deserts

Based on research from slopes on rhyolite domes of known age formed over a million‐year continuum in eastern California, a classic geomorphic debate is reconsidered and a general model of desert slope development proposed. This study examines steep (～25° to ～35°) boulder‐dominated slopes that include well, varnished, vertically oriented colluvial deposits. Such deposits are common throughout the arid southwestern United States. Basic field and isotopic dating methods are combined with two surface‐dating techniques, cosmogenic chlorine‐36 and rock varnish microlaminae, to produce a detailed slope development history with broad implications for geomorphic theory that includes the unresolved geomorphic debate between Walther Penck and William Morris Davis. Slopes in this study are dominated by the on‐going desert slope processes of debris flows and in‐situ grain disintegration as evidenced by active debris flow features, terminal Pleistocene ages of microlaminae, and chlorine‐36 ages progressively younger than potassium‐argon ages for slope genesis. Results also indicate that slopes retreat in a parallel fashion as postulated by Penck. Furthermore, the deposits do not exhibit significant changes in grain size, shape, or angularity from genesis to ～0.6 Ma but change markedly after that time possibly indicating a geomorphic threshold between ～0.6 and ～1 Ma, or episodic erosional events throughout the mid to late Pleistocene.     

Contrasting rainfall generated debris flows from adjacent watersheds at Forest Falls, southern California, USA

Debris flows are widespread and common in many steeply sloping areas of southern California. The San Bernardino Mountains community of Forest Falls is probably subject to the most frequently documented debris flows in southern California. Debris flows at Forest Falls are generated during short-duration high-intensity rains that mobilize surface material. Except for debris flows on two consecutive days in November 1965, all the documented historic debris flows have occurred during high-intensity summer rainfall, locally referred to as ‘monsoon’ or ‘cloudburst’ rains. Velocities of the moving debris range from about 5 km/h to about 90 km/h. Velocity of a moving flow appears to be essentially a function of the water content of the flow. Low velocity debris flows are characterized by steep snouts that, when stopped, have only small amounts of water draining from the flow. In marked contrast are high-velocity debris flows whose deposits more resemble fluvial deposits. In the Forest Falls area two adjacent drainage basins, Snow Creek and Rattlesnake Creek, have considerably different histories of debris flows. Snow Creek basin, with an area about three times as large as Rattlesnake Creek basin, has a well developed debris flow channel with broad levees. Most of the debris flows in Snow Creek have greater water content and attain higher velocities than those of Rattlesnake Creek. Most debris flows are in relative equilibrium with the geometry of the channel morphology. Exceptionally high-velocity flows, however, overshoot the channel walls at particularly tight channel curves. After overshooting the channel, the flows degrade the adjacent levee surface and remove trees and structures in the immediate path, before spreading out with decreasing velocity. As the velocity decreases the clasts in the debris flows pulverize the up-slope side of the trees and often imbed clasts in them. Debris flows in Rattlesnake Creek are relatively slow moving and commonly stop in the channel. After the channel is blocked, subsequent debris flows cut a new channel upstream from the blockage that results in the deposition of new debris-flow deposits on the lower part of the fan. Shifting the location of debris flows on the Rattlesnake Creek fan tends to prevent trees from becoming mature. Dense growths of conifer seedlings sprout in the spring on the late summer debris flow deposits. This repeated process results in stands of even-aged trees whose age records the age of the debris flows.     

Internal migration patterns for U.S. foreign-born, 1985-1990

"Using 1990 census data, this paper calculates the flow [of the foreign-born population in the United States] between states and from abroad; also, a multinomial logistic regression model of destination choice is estimated for resettlers and for migrants from abroad. There are three major findings. Firstly, Florida and California are the largest recipients of foreign-born resettlers; New York is the biggest loser of secondary migrants. Secondly, the presence of large communities of Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida are very attractive to both resettlers and migrants from abroad. Thirdly, immigrants that are most in need of ethnic support networks (i.e. new arrivals or immigrants with low human capital resources) are most likely to choose one of the traditional immigration states as a destination."     

What can we learn about changing ethnic diversity from the distributions of mixed-race individuals?

It is hypothesized that self-defined mixed-race persons live in residentially mixed areas in the largest metropolitan areas in California. The hypothesis is tested by examining the distribution of mixed-race persons among ethnically and racially diverse and nondiverse neighborhoods in the San Francisco and Los Angeles Metropolitan Areas. The research confirmed that mixed-race individuals are more likely to live in areas with ethnic diversity and that the tendency is greater for the mixed-race population in the San Francisco–Oakland Metropolitan Areas than in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area. Mixed-race individuals live in neighborhoods which are diverse with mixes of all four major ethnic and racial groups, and in “well-off” (but not the most affluent) neighborhoods. The study also shows that the mixed-race population is youthful. The association of mixed-race individuals and racially integrated neighborhoods will have important implications for the evolving nature of spatial integration in California specifically, and the United States more generally.     

Evaluation of Weights of Evidence to Predict Epithermal-Gold Deposits in the Great Basin of the Western United States

The weights-of-evidence method provides a simple approach to the integration of diverse geologic information. The application addressed is to construct a model that predicts the locations of epithermal-gold mineral deposits in the Great Basin of the western United States. Weights of evidence is a data-driven method requiring known deposits and occurrences that are used as training sites in the evaluated area. Four hundred and fifteen known hot spring gold–silver, Comstock vein, hot spring mercury, epithermal manganese, and volcanogenic uranium deposits and occurrences in Nevada were used to define an area of 327.4 km² as training sites to develop the model. The model consists of nine weighted-map patterns that are combined to produce a favorability map predicting the distribution of epithermal-gold deposits. Using a measure of the association of training sites with predictor features (or patterns), the patterns can be ranked from best to worst predictors. Based on proximity analysis, the strongest predictor is the area within 8 km of volcanic rocks younger than 43 Ma. Being close to volcanic rocks is not highly weighted, but being far from volcanic rocks causes a strong negative weight. These weights suggest that proximity to volcanic rocks define where deposits do not occur. The second best pattern is the area within 1 km of hydrothermally altered areas. The next best pattern is the area within 1 km of known placer-gold sites. The proximity analysis for gold placers weights this pattern as useful when close to known placer sites, but unimportant where placers do not exist. The remaining patterns are significantly weaker predictors. In order of decreasing correlation, they are: proximity to volcanic vents, proximity to east-west to northwest faults, elevated airborne radiometric uranium, proximity to northwest to west and north-northwest linear features, elevated aeromagnetics, and anomalous geochemistry. This ordering of the patterns is a function of the quality, applicability, and use of the data. The nine-pattern favorability map can be evaluated by comparison with the USGS National Assessment for hot spring gold–silver deposits. The Spearman's ranked correlation coefficient between the favorability and the National Assessment permissive tracts is 0.5. Tabulations of the areas of agreement and disagreement between the two maps show 74% agreement for the Great Basin. The posterior probabilities for 51 significant deposits in the Great Basin, both used and not used in the model, show the following: 26 classified as favorable; 25 classified as permissive; and 1, Florida Canyon, classified as nonpermissive.The Florida Canyon deposit has a low favorability because there are no volcanic rocks near the deposit on the Nevada geologic map used. The largest areas of disagreement are caused by the USGS National Assessment team concluding that volcanic rocks older than 27 Ma in Nevada are not permissive, which was not assumed in this model. The weights-of-evidence model is evaluated as reasonable and delineates permissive areas for epithermal deposits comparable to expert's delineation. The weights-of-evidence model has the additional characteristics that it is well defined, reproducible, objective, and provides a quantitative measure of confidence.     

LATE QUATERNARY AEOLIAN GEOMORPHOLOGY OF THE DALE LAKE SAND SHEET,SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT,CALIFORNIA

Geomorphological and sedimentological analysis of aeolian deposits, combined with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of quartz-grain surface characteristics, suggest six dune-building episodes during late Quaternary time in the southern Mojave Desert, California. The aeolian units accumulated largely in response to the lowering of water levels in lake basins and a consequent increase in fine sediment availability, and to stronger and more persistent winds, associated with rapidly changing environmental conditions. Peak dune deposition is believed to have taken place during the middle Holocene Altithermal between around 7.5 and 5 ka, a period characterized by greater aridity than the present. SEM analysis of the quartz surface textures indicates that mechanical and especially chemical weathering processes play a significant role in the post-depositional modification of aeolian sediments. Such evidence permits paleoenvironmental reconstruction during and since deposition, and a basis for the relative dating of aeolian sequences. Discriminant analysis using grain-size parameters, combined with principal components analysis of the SEM data from quartz-grain surfaces, is an effective analytical tool for distinguishing between spatially and temporally distributed aeolian deposits. [Key words: aeolian geomorphology, granulometry, quartz grain surface microfeatures, scanning electron microscopy, multivariate statistical analysis.]     

Comparison of short-term seacliff retreat measurement methods in Del Mar, California

Seacliff retreat has been variously characterized as the recession rate of the cliff top, of the cliff base, and as the bulk recession rate based on volumetric changes of the entire cliff face. Here, these measures of retreat are compared using nine semi-annual airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) surveys of southern California seacliffs. Changes in the cliff base location (where the steeply sloping cliff face intersects the beach) include cliff retreat owing to basal erosion, but also reflect changes in beach sand level and basal talus deposits. Averaged over the 2.5 km alongshore study span, the cliff base actually prograded seaward about 12 cm during the 4-year study. Cliff top change was dominated by few, relatively large (several meters) localized retreats. Cliff face changes, that include failures and deposits anywhere on the cliff profile, had a relatively small mean magnitude compared to cliff top changes and were more widely distributed alongshore. However, the similar alongshore averaged, cumulative cliff top and net bulk cliff face end-point retreat (14 and 19 cm, respectively) suggest that mean cumulative cliff top retreat can potentially be a viable surrogate for mean net cumulative cliff-wide erosion (and vice versa) over relatively short time periods. Cliff face erosion occurred repeatedly at some locations, confirming the presence of seacliff erosion hot-spots during the study period.     

Late Quaternary sedimentation on the Leidy Creek fan, Nevada–California: geomorphic responses to climate change

Well-dated surface and subsurface deposits in semiarid Fish Lake Valley, Nevada and California, demonstrate that alluvial-fan deposition is strongly associated with the warm dry climate of the last two interglacial intervals, and that fans were stable and (or) incised during the last glaciation. Fan deposition was probably triggered by a change from relatively moist to arid conditions causing a decrease in vegetation cover and increases in flash floods and sediment yield. We think that this scenario applies to most of the other valleys in the southern Basin and Range. Radiocarbon, tephra, and a few thermoluminescence and cosmogenic ages from outcrops throughout Fish Lake Valley and from cores on the Leidy Creek fan yield ages of >100–50 ka and 11–0 ka for the last two periods of alluvial-fan deposition. Mapping, coring and shallow seismic profiling indicate that these periods were synchronous throughout the valley and on the proximal and distal parts of the fans. From 50 to 11 ka, fan deposition ceased, a soil formed on the older alluvium and the axial drainage became active as runoff and stream competence increased. Slow deposition due to sheet flow or aeolian processes locally continued during this interval, producing cumulic soil profiles. The soil was buried by debris-flow sediment beginning at about 11 ka, coincident with the onset of relatively dry and warm conditions in the region. However, ground-water discharge maintained a large freshwater marsh on the valley floor throughout the Holocene. Pulses of deposition during the Holocene are recorded in the marsh and fan deposits; some pulses coincided with periods of or transitions to warm, dry climate indicated by proxy climate records, whereas others may reflect local disturbances associated with volcanism and fires. Within the marsh deposits, much of the clastic material is probably desert loess. In addition, the deposition of coppice dunes within the fan deposits coincides with two dry periods during the late Holocene.     

Untangling the influence of in-lake productivity and terrestrial organic matter flux on 4,250 years of mercury accumulation in Lake Hambre, Southern Chile

There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity.     

THE SOURCES OF REGIONAL ELDERLY POPULATION GROWTH: MIGRATION AND AGING-IN-PLACE *

A region's elderly population has two sources of growth: net migration and the net aging-in-place of its resident population. This paper outlines a method for identifying the projected relative contribution of these two sources of elderly population growth over time, and illustrates it with data for the states of Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, and New York. The sources of elderly population growth differ between regions and over time.     

A 17,300-year record of mercury accumulation in a pristine lake in southern Chile

Anthropogenic mercury accumulation in lake sediments has been studied extensively, but natural processes that controlled mercury accumulation in the past are still poorly understood. We present a 17,300-year record of mercury accumulation in the sediments of Lake Hambre, southernmost Patagonia, Chile (53°S, 70°W), in combination with an investigation of environmental changes in the region. Mercury accumulation in the remote pristine lake varied appreciably, as much as 16×, exceeding the anthropogenic forcing of atmospheric mercury fluxes by a factor of 3–5. Principal Component Analysis revealed that short-term variations were not related to changes in atmospheric mercury deposition or to fluxes of mineral soil into the lake. Instead, there was significant covariation between short-term changes in mercury and catchment-derived trace elements, e.g. copper and yttrium, throughout the past 17,000 years. Covariation between mercury and carbon concentration in some parts of the record suggests that fluxes of particulate and dissolved organic matter from the catchment to the lake account for short-term variations in mercury accumulation. Nevertheless, over the long term, there is no common trend for mercury accumulation and organic matter flux. The median mercury accumulation rate was rather constant (29 μg m^?2 a^?1), whereas the flux of terrestrial organic matter into the lake increased through time. We hypothesize that this was a consequence of a progressive decrease in the input of terrestrial organic matter-bound mercury through time. Whereas production of terrestrial organic matter increased over the long term because of development of catchment vegetation and soils, following glacier retreat, amounts of mercury, copper and yttrium provided by atmospheric deposition and bedrock weathering remained relatively constant. As a consequence, despite increased fluxes of terrestrial organic matter to the lake, fluxes of mercury remained constant.     

Rock varnish microlamination dating of late Quaternary geomorphic features in the drylands of western USA

Varnish microlamination (VML) dating is a correlative age determination technique that can be used to date and correlate various geomorphic features in deserts. In this study, we establish a generalized late Quaternary (i.e., 0–300 ka) varnish layering sequence for the drylands of western USA and tentatively correlate it with the SPECMAP oxygen isotope record. We then use this climatically correlated varnish layering sequence as a correlative dating tool to determine surface exposure ages for late Quaternary geomorphic features in the study region. VML dating of alluvial fan deposits in Death Valley of eastern California indicates that, during the mid to late Pleistocene, 5–15 ky long aggradation events occurred during either wet or dry climatic periods and that major climate shifts between glacial and interglacial conditions may be the pacemaker for alteration of major episodes of fan aggradation. During the Holocene interglacial time, however, 0.5–1 ky long brief episodes of fan deposition may be linked to short periods of relatively wet climate. VML dating of alluvial desert pavements in Death Valley and the Mojave Desert reveals that pavements can be developed rapidly (< 10 ky) during the Holocene (and probably late Pleistocene) in the arid lowlands (< 800 m msl) of these regions; but once formed, they may survive for 74–85 ky or even longer without being significantly disturbed by geomorphic processes operative at the pavement surface. Data from this study also support the currently accepted, “being born at the surface” model of desert pavement formation. VML dating of colluvial boulder deposits on the west slope of Yucca Mountain, southern Nevada, yields a minimum age of 46 ka for the emplacement of these deposits on the slope, suggesting that they were probably formed during the early phase of the last glaciation or before. These results, combined with those from our previous studies, demonstrate that VML dating has great potential to yield numerical age estimates for various late Quaternary geomorphic features in the western USA drylands.     

CHARTING URBAN SPACE-TIME POPULATION SHIFTS WITH TRIP GENERATION MODELS

Travel diaries were administered to 2754 households in San Diego by the San Diego Association of Governments one day in 1986. These surveys are used to document population shifts throughout the 24-hour day and for documenting the maximum population for each census tract. To develop the formula for estimating populations in time and space, factors of trips by time of day and type of trip (e.g., home-to-work, home-to-shop) were extracted from the travel behavior survey. These factors were then applied to the daily trip productions and trip attractions obtained from the standard trip generation models used by the California Department of Transportation. The population data input to produce the 1986 estimates also is available to generate daytime population estimates for 1995, 2000, and 2010. Such time-space charting is essential if urban areas are to be prepared to: (1) meet the service demands of mobile urban populations and (2) manage evacuation procedures for earthquakes, flooding, or possible nuclear attack.     

Preliminary characterization of some Argentinean Artemia populations from La Pampa and Buenos Aires provinces

Artemia populations were sampled in four hypersaline ecosystems in continental evaporitic basins from the Argentinean provinces of La Pampa and Buenos Aires. Biometrics of cysts and nauplii were performed. The morphometrics of adult females under standard culture conditions, studied by multivariate discriminant analysis, provided evidence that these populations belonged to the speciesA. persimilis; this was further supported by cross-breeding tests established between one of these populations (Salinas Grandes de Hidalgo, province of La Pampa) and a population ofA. franciscana from San Francisco Bay (California, USA), which showed reproductive isolation and barriers to gene flow between both populations.