Effectiveness and legitimacy of forest carbon standards in the OTC voluntary carbon market

Background  

In recent years, the voluntary over-the-counter (OTC) carbon market has reached a significant market volume. It is particularly interesting for forest mitigation projects which are either ineligible in compliance markets or confronted with a plethora of technical and financial hurdles and lacking market demand. As the OTC market is not regulated, voluntary standards have been created to secure the social and environmental integrity of the traded mitigation projects and thus to ensure the quality of the resulting carbon credits. Building on a theoretical efficiency-legitimacy framework, this study aims to identify and analyse the characteristics and indicators that determine the efficiency and organisational legitimacy of standards for afforestation/reforestation carbon projects.     

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO₂. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.     

Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

Background

Unmanaged or old-growth forests are of paramount importance for carbon sequestration and thus for the mitigation of climate change among further implications, e.g. biodiversity aspects. Still, the importance of those forests for climate change mitigation compared to managed forests is under controversial debate. We evaluate the adequacy of referring to CO₂ flux measurements alone and include external impacts on growth (nitrogen immissions, increasing temperatures, CO₂ enrichment, changed precipitation patterns) for an evaluation of central European forests in this context.

Results

We deduce that the use of CO₂ flux measurements alone does not allow conclusions on a superiority of unmanaged to managed forests for mitigation goals. This is based on the critical consideration of uncertainties and the application of system boundaries. Furthermore, the consideration of wood products for material and energetic substitution obviously overrules the mitigation potential of unmanaged forests. Moreover, impacts of nitrogen immissions, CO₂ enrichment of the atmosphere, increasing temperatures and changed precipitation patterns obviously lead to a meaningful increase in growth, even in forests of higher age.

Conclusions

An impact of unmanaged forests on climate change mitigation cannot be valued by CO₂ flux measurements alone. Further research is needed on cause and effect relationships between management practices and carbon stocks in different compartments of forest ecosystems in order to account for human-induced changes. Unexpected growth rates in old-growth forests ?C managed or not ?C can obviously be related to external impacts and additionally to management impacts. This should lead to the reconsideration of forest management strategies.     

A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

Background

Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.

Results

We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.

Conclusions

Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha^?1/year^?1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.

     

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Background

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO₂ growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98.

Results

We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO₂ flux.

Conclusion

Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.     

The effect of carbon tax on carbon emission abatement and GDP: a case study

Carbon tax has been advocated as an effective economic instrument for the abatement of CO₂ emission by various countries, including China, the world’s biggest carbon emission country. However, carbon emission abatement cannot be done while ignoring the impact on economic growth. A delicate balance needs to be achieved between the two to find an appropriate pathway for sustainable development. This paper applies a multi-objective optimization approach to analyze the impact of levying carbon tax on the energy-intensive sectors of Guangdong province in China under the constraint of emission reduction target. This approach allows us to evaluate carbon emission minimization while maximizing GDP. For policy analysis, we construct five scenarios for evaluation and optimal choice. The results of the analysis show that a lower initial carbon tax rate is not necessarily better, and that a carbon tax is an effective means to reduce CO₂ emissions while maintaining a certain level of GDP growth.     

Significance of the oceanic CO2 sink for national carbon accounts

Background  

Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its coastline, known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ has a vast capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO₂ and therefore potentially be used as a carbon sink, it is not mentioned within the Kyoto Protocol most likely due to inadequate quantitative estimates. Here, I use two methods to estimate the anthropogenic CO₂ storage and uptake for a typically large EEZ (Australia).     

Predicting forest carbon stocks from high resolution satellite data in dry forests of Zimbabwe: exploring the effect of the red-edge band in forest carbon stocks estimation

In this study, we tested whether the inclusion of the red-edge band as a covariate to vegetation indices improves the predictive accuracy in forest carbon estimation and mapping in savanna dry forests of Zimbabwe. Initially, we tested whether and to what extent vegetation indices (simple ratio SR, soil-adjusted vegetation index and normalized difference vegetation index) derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery (WorldView-2) predict forest carbon stocks. Next, we tested whether inclusion of reflectance in the red-edge band as a covariate to vegetation indices improve the model's accuracy in forest carbon prediction. We used simple regression analysis to determine the nature and the strength of the relationship between forest carbon stocks and remotely sensed vegetation indices. We then used multiple regression analysis to determine whether integrating vegetation indices and reflection in the red-edge band improve forest carbon prediction. Next, we mapped the spatial variation in forest carbon stocks using the best regression model relating forest carbon stocks to remotely sensed vegetation indices and reflection in the red-edge band. Our results showed that vegetation indices alone as an explanatory variable significantly (p < 0.05) predicted forest carbon stocks with R² ranging between 45 and 63% and RMSE ranging from 10.3 to 12.9%. However, when the reflectance in the red-edge band was included in the regression models the explained variance increased to between 68 and 70% with the RMSE ranging between 9.56 and 10.1%. A combination of SR and reflectance in the red edge produced the best predictor of forest carbon stocks. We concluded that integrating vegetation indices and reflectance in the red-edge band derived from high spatial resolution can be successfully used to estimate forest carbon in dry forests with minimal error.     

Historical effects of dissolved organic carbon export and land management decisions on the watershed-scale forest carbon budget of a coastal British Columbia Douglas-fir-dominated landscape

Background

To address how natural disturbance, forest harvest, and deforestation from reservoir creation affect landscape-level carbon (C) budgets, a retrospective C budget for the 8500 ha Sooke Lake Watershed (SLW) from 1911 to 2012 was developed using historical spatial inventory and disturbance data. To simulate forest C dynamics, data was input into a spatially-explicit version of the Carbon Budget Model-Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Transfers of terrestrial C to inland aquatic environments need to be considered to better capture the watershed scale C balance. Using dissolved organic C (DOC) and stream flow measurements from three SLW catchments, DOC load into the reservoir was derived for a 17-year period. C stocks and stock changes between a baseline and two alternative management scenarios were compared to understand the relative impact of successive reservoir expansions and sustained harvest activity over the 100-year period.

Results

Dissolved organic C flux for the three catchments ranged from 0.017 to 0.057 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1. Constraining CBM-CFS3 to observed DOC loads required parameterization of humified soil C losses of 2.5, 5.5, and 6.5%. Scaled to the watershed and assuming none of the exported terrestrial DOC was respired to CO₂, we hypothesize that over 100 years up to 30,657 Mg C may have been available for sequestration in sediment. By 2012, deforestation due to reservoir creation/expansion resulted in the watershed forest lands sequestering 14 Mg C ha^?1 less than without reservoir expansion. Sustained harvest activity had a substantially greater impact, reducing forest C stores by 93 Mg C ha^?1 by 2012. However approximately half of the C exported as merchantable wood during logging (~176,000 Mg C) may remain in harvested wood products, reducing the cumulative impact of forestry activity from 93 to 71 Mg C ha^?1.

Conclusions

Dissolved organic C flux from temperate forest ecosystems is a small but persistent C flux which may have long term implications for C storage in inland aquatic systems. This is a first step integrating fluvial transport of C into a forest carbon model by parameterizing DOC flux from soil C pools. While deforestation related to successive reservoir expansions did impact the watershed-scale C budget, over multi-decadal time periods, sustained harvest activity was more influential.

     

Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010

Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (60-m spatial resolution) derived from sequential remotely sensed Landsat imagery were used to generate 960-m resolution land cover change maps for the Piedmont ecoregion. These maps were used in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to simulate ecosystem carbon stock and flux changes from 1971 to 2010. Results show that land use change, especially urbanization and forest harvest had significant impacts on carbon sources and sinks. From 1971 to 2010, forest ecosystems sequestered 0.25 Mg C ha?1 yr?1, while agricultural ecosystems sequestered 0.03 Mg C ha?1 yr?1. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 2271 Tg C in 1971 to 2402 Tg C in 2010, with an annual average increase of 3.3 Tg C yr?1. Terrestrial lands in the Piedmont ecoregion were estimated to be weak net carbon sink during the study period. The major factors contributing to the carbon sink were forest growth and afforestation; the major factors contributing to terrestrial emissions were human induced land cover change, especially urbanization and forest harvest. An additional amount of carbon continues to be stored in harvested wood products. If this pool were included the carbon sink would be stronger.     

Simulating the carbon balance of a temperate larch forest under various meteorological conditions

Background  

Changes in the timing of phenological events may cause the annual carbon budget of deciduous forests to change. Therefore, one should take such events into account when evaluating the effects of global warming on deciduous forests. In this article, we report on the results of numerical experiments done with a model that includes a phenological module simulating the timing of bud burst and other phenological events and estimating maximum leaf area index.     

Simulating the carbon balance of a temperate larch forest under various meteorological conditions

This editorial provides a subject index from published articles, active researchers, and published papers in the field of carbon balance and management.     

Implications of land use change on the national terrestrial carbon budget of Georgia

Background  

Globally, the loss of forests now contributes almost 20% of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. There is an immediate need to reduce the current rates of forest loss, and the associated release of carbon dioxide, but for many areas of the world these rates are largely unknown. The Soviet Union contained a substantial part of the world's forests and the fate of those forests and their effect on carbon dynamics remain unknown for many areas of the former Eastern Bloc. For Georgia, the political and economic transitions following independence in 1991 have been dramatic. In this paper we quantify rates of land use changes and their effect on the terrestrial carbon budget for Georgia. A carbon book-keeping model traces changes in carbon stocks using historical and current rates of land use change. Landsat satellite images acquired circa 1990 and 2000 were analyzed to detect changes in forest cover since 1990.     

Modelling carbon dynamics from urban land conversion: fundamental model of city in relation to a local carbon cycle

Background  

The main task is to estimate the qualitative and quantitative contribution of urban territories and precisely of the process of urbanization to the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC). Note that, on the contrary to many investigations that have considered direct anthropogenic emission of CO₂(urbanized territories produce ca. 96–98% of it), we are interested in more subtle, and up until the present time, weaker processes associated with the conversion of the surrounding natural ecosystems and landscapes into urban lands. Such conversion inevitably takes place when cities are sprawling and additional "natural" lands are becoming "urbanized".     

湖泊碳循环研究中遥感技术的机遇与挑战

湖泊碳循环是全球碳循环过程中的重要环节,随着全球碳循环研究的不断深入,湖泊碳循环对全球碳循环的影响,以及其对全球气候变化的调节作用越来越受到关注.然而,由于湖泊分布的破碎性(大于0.002 km2的湖泊约有1.17×108个,并零星地分布在全球)和多样性(流域生态多样性,湖泊类型多样性,分布的气候带多样性等),使得全面...     

Options for accounting carbon sequestration in German forests

Background  

The Accra climate change talks held from 21–27 August 2008 in Accra, Ghana, were part of an ongoing series of meetings leading up to the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. During the meeting a set of options for accounting carbon sequestration in forestry on a post-2012 framework was presented. The options include gross-net and net-net accounting and approaches for establishing baselines.     

Accounting for risk in valuing forest carbon offsets

Background  

Forests can sequester carbon dioxide, thereby reducing atmospheric concentrations and slowing global warming. In the U.S., forest carbon stocks have increased as a result of regrowth following land abandonment and in-growth due to fire suppression, and they currently sequester approximately 10% of annual US emissions. This ecosystem service is recognized in greenhouse gas protocols and cap-and-trade mechanisms, yet forest carbon is valued equally regardless of forest type, an approach that fails to account for risk of carbon loss from disturbance.     

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

Background  

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.     

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management

Background  

Fires emit significant amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO₂ emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO₂ emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO₂ emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO₂ emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development.