Are Models Too Simple? Arguments for Increased Parameterization

The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach.     

Are peatlands cool humid islands in a landscape?

This study proposed that due to their high standing water tables that peatlands would be cold humid islands within their landscape, and especially so relative to farmland on mineral soils. To test this hypothesis, we measured air temperature and humidity at 17 locations along a 7.8 km transect across the UK's largest lowland raised bog from February 2018 to January 2019. Air temperature and humidity were measured hourly for 1 year and supported with spot albedo measurements. The study represented a factorial experiment with respect to sites of measurement, the type of land use (peat vs. arable land) and time of sampling over both the seasonal and diurnal cycles. We show that: (a) That although mean annual temperature was not significantly different between arable and peatlands, the arable land showed a decreased amplitude to its seasonal cycle – this is the reverse of the expected pattern. (b) The albedo of the peatland was significantly lower than that of arable land showing that vegetated peatland still absorbed more solar radiation. (c) The specific humidity was lower on the peatland than on the surrounding arable land. The study showed that while shrubby vegetation exists over a peatland then energy budgets are more likely to be dominated by the lower aerodynamic resistance and lower albedo of the vegetated peatland relative to arable land. Thus, shrub-dominated peatlands will not be a cold humid island in their landscape.     

What can we learn about reconnection from coronal mass ejections?

It may be possible to calculate the rate of reconnection in the corona by measuring the rate at which the temporary coronal hole formed by a coronal mass ejection (CME) disappears. This calculation is possible if the disappearance of the hole is caused by the same reconnection process which creates the giant X-ray arches associated with CMEs. These arches form just below the vertical current sheet that is created as the CME drags magnetic field lines out into interplanetary space, and they are similar in form to ‘post’-flare loops, except that they often have an upward motion that is different. Instead of continually slowing with time as ‘post’-flare loops do, they move upwards at a rate which increases, or remains nearly constant, with time. This difference has raised doubts about the relevance of reconnection to the formation and propagation of the arches. Using a two-dimensional flux rope model to calculate the size and location of the current sheet as a function of time, we find that the difference between the motion of ‘post’-flare loops and giant arches can be explained simply by the variation of the coronal Alfvén speed with height.     

Are feldspar SAR protocols appropriate for post-IR IRSL dating?

Recently proposed post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (post-IR IRSL or pIR) dating protocols have largely overcome problems associated with anomalous fading and have become increasingly important for age determination of Quaternary sediments. Here, we investigate the suitability of the proposed post-IR IRSL protocols for accurate equivalent-dose estimation on K-feldspar extracts. Our research focuses on potential sensitivity changes between the natural signal and the first test dose signal in single-aliquot regenerative dose (SAR) procedures that are not detected and thus not corrected using test-dose responses.For these investigations, we employed the Single Aliquot Regeneration and Added dose (SARA) procedure, which combines equivalent-dose estimation with a dose recovery test. Results indicated that high-temperature preheats (>260 °C for 60 s) may induce a trapping sensitivity change in IRSL signals measured at low temperature (<100 °C). As this sensitivity change cannot be detected through test dose responses in the SAR protocol, it may result in an invalid equivalent-dose estimation. However, trapping sensitivity changes were not observed after low temperature preheats (<260 °C for 60 s), nor in pIR signals measured at elevated temperature (>100 °C) after a high temperature preheat. Our results indicate that the SAR protocol is appropriate for equivalent-dose determination using elevated-temperature pIR signals (e.g. pIR at 290 °C or multiple elevated temperature pIR at 250 °C). The SAR protocol may also be appropriate for equivalent-dose determination using low temperature pIR signals, provided that the combination of preheat and measurement temperature is carefully chosen to avoid the unwanted effects of sensitivity change during the first preheat.     

Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern bivariate densities: Are they applicable in hydrology?

Certain bivariate densities constructed from marginals have recently been suggested as models of hydrologic variates such as rainfall intensity and depth. It is pointed out that (i) these densities belong to the families of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern densities and the Farlie polynomial densities, which have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, and that (ii) these densities have a limited potential applicability in hydrology since they can model only weakly associated variates, whose product-moment correlationR is within the range |R|1/3, under the first family of densities, and |R|1/2 under the second family.     

Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern bivariate densities: Are they applicable in hydrology?

Certain bivariate densities constructed from marginals have recently been suggested as models of hydrologic variates such as rainfall intensity and depth. It is pointed out that (i) these densities belong to the families of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern densities and the Farlie polynomial densities, which have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, and that (ii) these densities have a limited potential applicability in hydrology since they can model only weakly associated variates, whose product-moment correlationR is within the range |R|1/3, under the first family of densities, and |R|1/2 under the second family.     

Are water tables a subdued replica of the topography?

The water table in unconfined aquifers is often believed to be a subdued replica of the topography or land surface. However, this assumption has not been widely tested and in some cases has been found to be in error. An analysis of ground water rise in regional unconfined aquifers, using both a two-dimensional boundary element model and a one-dimensional Dupuit-Forchheimer model, reveals the conditions under which the water table does or does not closely follow the topography. A simple decision criterion is presented to estimate in advance under which conditions the water table is expected to be largely unrelated to the topography and under which conditions the topography controls the position of the water table.     

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.     

Are metal-induced hypersensitivities in harbor seals associated with liver function?

Environmental exposure to metals is believed to affect marine mammal health adversely including immunosuppression or acute as well as chronic inflammatory processes leading to hypersensitivities or autoimmune diseases. Metal-specific hypersensitivities were found in several pinnipeds of the North Sea. However, hypersensitivity is a complex phenomenon whose characteristics are still not completely understood; in particular, effects on health are not well established. In the present study, we compared basic hematological and biochemical parameters of seals with and without metal-specific hypersensitivities. We found altered hematological parameters and liver enzyme patterns in seals with a metal-induced hypersensitivity, including a reduction in macrophages, an increase in lymphocytes, and elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase. These findings support the suggestion of a chronic influence of metal pollutants on the health of marine mammals of the North Sea.     

Are geostrophic and quasi-geostrophic approximations valid in Venus’ differential super-rotation?

Geostrophic dynamics in the horizontally differential super-rotation of Venus are examined using f_A (the Coriolis parameter defined by the angular velocity of a basic flow in an inertial frame) and Γ (the differential rotation parameter defined by the latitudinal gradient of the angular velocity) under the conditions that vertical shear of the basic field is not considered and the intrinsic phase velocity has a magnitude comparable to that of an eddy horizontal flow. The geostrophic and quasi-geostrophic approximations are valid in the regions of weakly differential and rigid-body super-rotations; however, they are invalid in the regions of strongly differential super-rotation even when the Rossby number R _O is sufficiently smaller than unity for synoptic eddies. In a general circulation model of a Venus-like atmosphere, the horizontal divergence that results from the strong differential cannot be ignored over a wide range within latitudes ±60° and below 60?km elevation because of large Γ/f_A (≥1/2).     

Are fiddler crabs potentially useful ecosystem engineers in mangrove wastewater wetlands?

The effect of different organic-rich sewage concentration (0%, 20% and 60% diluted in seawater) and absence or presence of mangrove trees on the survival, bioturbation activities and burrow morphology of fiddler crabs species was assessed. After 6 months, males of both species always showed higher survival (80%) when compared to females (20%). Crabs inhabiting pristine conditions achieved higher survival (67–87%) than those living in sewage-exposed mesocosms (40–71%). At 60% sewage loading, fiddler crabs processed less sediment (34–46%) during feeding and excavated slightly more sediment (45–80%) than at pristine conditions. While percent volume of the burrow chambers increased (13–66%) at contaminated mesocosms for both vegetation conditions, burrows were shallower (33%) in bare cells loaded with sewage. The results show that fiddler crabs presented moderate mortality levels in these artificial mangrove wetlands, but mainly in sewage impacted cells. However, they still function as ecosystem engineers through bioturbation activities and burrow construction.     

What can we tell about global auroral-electrojet activity from a single meridional magnetometer chain?

The AE indices are generally used for monitoring the level of magnetic activity in the auroral oval region. In some cases, however, the oval is either so expanded or contracted that the latitudinal coverage of the AE magnetometer chain is not adequate. Then, a longitudinal chain in the key region would give more information of the real situation, but, of course, only during some limited UT-period. In order to find out the UT coverage of a single meridional chain, we have compared the global AL and AU indices with corresponding local indices determined using data from the meridional part of the EISCAT Magnetometer Cross during the years 1985–1987. A statistical study shows that the local indices are close (within relative error of 0.2) to the global AU and AL during periods 1500–2000 UT ( 1730–2230 MLT) and 2130–0130 UT (000–0400 MLT), respectively. In the middle of these optimal MLT-sectors the EISCAT Cross sees more than 70% of the cases when the global AE chain records activity. Then, also the correlation between the local and global indices is generally good (>0.7). Thus we conclude that five to six evenly located meridional chains are needed for covering all the UT-periods. On the other hand, already the combination of IMAGE, CANOPUS, and the Greenland chains catches 50% of the substorms. Case-studies show that usually during 2130 – 1100 UT the AL achieved from these chains reproduces the real AL with good timing, although it does not follow all transient variations.