Assessment of climate variability and trend on wheat productivity in West Bengal,India: crop growth simulation approach

Wheat is the second important cereal crop after rice in West Bengal. During last three decades, due to climate fluctuations and variability, the productivity of this crop remains almost constant, bringing the threat of food security of this State. The objectives of the present study were to assess the trend of climatic variables (rainfall, rainy days, and temperature) over six locations covering five major agro-climatic sub-zones of West Bengal and to estimate the variability of potential, simulated yield using crop simulation model (DSAATv4.5) and the yield gap with actual yield. There were no significant change of rainfall and rainy days in annual, seasonal and monthly scale at all the study sites. In general, the maximum temperature is decreasing throughout West Bengal. Except for Birbhum, the minimum temperature increased significantly in different study sites. District average yield of wheat varied from 1757 kg ha^?1 at Jalpaiguri to 2421 kg ha^?1at Birbhum. The actual yield trend ranged from ??4.7 kg ha^?1 year^?1 at Nadia to 32.8 kg ha^?1 year^?1 at Birbhum. Decreasing trend of potential yield was observed in Terai (Jalpaiguri), New Alluvial Zone (Nadia) and Coastal saline zone (South 24 Parganas), which is alarming for food security in West Bengal.     

Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO₂ fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.     

Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO₂], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t?ha^?1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.     

Impact assessment of climate change,carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China

Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO₂ fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3 % in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2 %. When the effect of CO₂ fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9 %. When constant GS and CO₂ fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6 %. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.22 t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.44 t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.65 t/ha due to CO₂ fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.     

Effect of surface albedo, water vapour, and atmospheric aerosols on the cloud-free shortwave radiative budget in the Arctic

This study is based on ground-based measurements of downward surface shortwave irradiance (SW), columnar water vapour (wv), and aerosol optical depth (τ) obtained at Thule Air Base (Greenland) in 2007–2010, together with MODIS observations of the surface shortwave albedo (A). Radiative transfer model calculations are used in combination with measurements to separate the radiative effect of A (ΔSW_A), wv (ΔSW_wv), and aerosols (ΔSW_τ) in modulating SW in cloud-free conditions. The shortwave radiation at the surface is mainly affected by water vapour absorption, which produces a reduction of SW as low as ?100 Wm^?2 (?18%). The seasonal change of A produces an increase of SW by up to +25 Wm^?2 (+4.5%). The annual mean radiative effect is estimated to be ?(21–22) Wm^?2 for wv, and +(2–3) Wm^?2 for A. An increase by +0.065 cm in the annual mean wv, to which corresponds an absolute increase in ΔSW_wv by 0.93 Wm^?2 (4.3%), has been observed to occur between 2007 and 2010. In the same period, the annual mean A has decreased by ?0.027, with a corresponding decrease in ΔSW_A by 0.41 Wm^?2 (?14.9%). Atmospheric aerosols produce a reduction of SW as low as ?32 Wm^?2 (?6.7%). The instantaneous aerosol radiative forcing (RF_τ) reaches values of ?28 Wm^?2 and shows a strong dependency on surface albedo. The derived radiative forcing efficiency (FE_τ) for solar zenith angles between 55° and 70° is estimated to be (?120.6 ± 4.3) for 0.1 < A < 0.2, and (?41.2 ± 1.6) Wm^?2 for 0.5 < A < 0.6.     

Quantitative evaluation of climatic variability and risks for wheat yield in India

This study comprises (1) an analysis of recent climate trends at two sites in north-west India (Ludhiana in Punjab and Delhi) and (2) an impact and risk assessment for wheat yields associated with climatic variability. North-west Indian agriculture is dominated by rice-wheat rotation in which the wheat season (‘rabi’, November to March) is characterized by predominantly dry conditions—superimposed by very high inter-annual variability of rainfall (17 to 260 mm in Ludhiana and <1 to 155 mm in Delhi). While rainfall remained without discernable trend over the last three decades, minimum and average temperatures showed increasing trends of 0.06 and 0.03°C year^???1, respectively, at Ludhiana. The site in (metropolitan) Delhi was apparently influenced by city-effects, which was noticeable from the decrease in solar radiation of 0.09 MJ m^???2 day^???1 year^???1. The CERES-wheat model was used to calculate yields of rainfed wheat that were at both locations highly correlated with seasonal rainfall. An assessment framework was developed to quantify yield impacts due to rainfall variability in three steps: (1) data from different years were aggregated into four classes, i.e., years with scarce, low, moderate, and high rainfall, (2) yield records of each rainfall class were ranked according to yield to facilitate (3) a comparison of yields with identical rank, i.e. among the best yield of each class, the second-best, etc. The class with moderate rainfall was taken as baseline yield to compute yield impacts of other rainfall scenarios. Years with scarce rainfall resulted in only 34% (Ludhiana) and 35% (Delhi) of the baseline yield. The yields in years with low rainfall accounted for 61% (Delhi) and 49% (Ludhiana) of the baseline yields. In Ludhiana, high rainfall years resulted in 200% yield as compared to the baseline yield, whereas they reached only 105% in Delhi. Low-intensity (1× and 3×) irrigation decreased the relative yield losses, but entailed a higher vulnerability in terms of absolute yield losses. Only high-intensity (4×) irrigation buffered wheat yields against adverse rainfall years. Early sowing was beneficial for wheat yields under all rainfall scenarios. The framework could be a valuable decision-support tool at the farm level where seasonal rainfall variability is high.     

Assessing the impact of climate changes on the potential yields of maize and paddy rice in Northeast China by 2050

Northeast China is the main crop production region in China, and future climate change will directly impact crop potential yields, so exploring crop potential yields under future climate scenarios in Northeast China is extremely critical for ensuring future food security. Here, this study projected the climate changes using 12 general circulation models (GCMs) under two moderate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) from 2015 to 2050. Then, based on the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model, we explored the effect of climate change on the potential yields of maize and paddy rice in Northeast China during 2015–2050. The annual relative humidity increased almost throughout the Northeast China under two RCPs. The annual precipitation increased more than 400 mm in some west, east, and south areas under RCP 4.5, but decreased slightly in some areas under RCP 6.0. The annual wind speed increased over 2 m/s in the west region. The annual net solar radiation changes varied significantly with latitude, but the changes of annual maximum temperature and minimum temperature were closely related to the terrain. Under RCP 4.5, the average maize potential yield increased by 34.31% under the influence of climate changes from 2015 to 2050. The average rice potential yield increased by 16.82% from 2015 to 2050. Under RCP 6.0, the average maize and rice potential yields increased by 25.65% and 6.34% respectively. The changes of maize potential yields were positively correlated with the changes of precipitation, wind speed, and net solar radiation (the correlation coefficients were > 0.2), and negatively correlated with the changes of relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature under two RCPs. The changes of rice potential yields were positively correlated with the changes of precipitation (correlation coefficient = 0.15) under RCP 4.5. Under RCP 6.0, it had a slight positive correlation with net solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed.     

Sea water surface energy balance in the Arctic fjord (Hornsund,SW Spitsbergen) in May–November 2014

Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.     

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and then evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m^?2 a^?1, precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a^?1, minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02°C a^?1, maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01°C a^?1, FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a^?1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a^?1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a^?1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for wheat and 51.4 kg ha^?1 a^?1 for maize at the northern sites, Beijing and Tianjin. They had no significant changes in the southern sites, Jinan and Zhengzhou. Irrigation, fertilization development and crop variety improvement are main factors to contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat–maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat–maize double crop rotations in the NCP.     

Evaluating the vegetation growing season changes in the arid region of northwestern China

Temperature has long been accepted as the major controlling factor in determining vegetation phenology in the middle and higher latitudes. The influence of water availability is often overlooked even in arid and semi-arid environments. We compared vegetation phenology metrics derived from both in situ temperature and satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations from 1982 to 2006 by an example of the arid region of northwestern China. From the satellite-based results, it was found the start of the growing season (SOS) advanced by 0.37 days year^?1 and the end of the growing season (EOS) delayed by 0.61 days year^?1 in Southern Xinjiang over 25 years. In the Tianshan Mountains, the SOS advanced by 0.35 days year^?1 and the EOS delayed by 0.31 days year^?1. There were almost no changes in Northern Xinjiang. Compared with satellite-based results, those estimates based on temperature contain less details of spatial variability of vegetation phenology. Interestingly, they show different and at times reversed spatial patterns from the satellite results arising from water limitation. Phenology metrics derived from temperature and NDVI conclude that water limitation of onset of the growing season is more severe than the cessation. Phenology spatial patterns of four oases in Southern Xingjiang show that, on average, there is a delay of the SOS of 1.6 days/10 km of distance from the mountain outlet stations. Our results underline the importance of water availability in determining the vegetation phenology in arid regions and can lead to important consequences in interpreting the possible change of vegetation phenology with climate.     

Soil CO2 efflux, carbon dynamics, and change in thermal conditions from contrasting clear-cut sites during natural restoration and uncut larch forests in northeastern China

With the implementation of the Chinese Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) in 1998, over millions of hectares of forest in northeastern China have been protected through natural restoration (closure of hills). The impact of this program on the carbon budget of soil has not been evaluated until now. This paper presents results from a 6-year study of total CO₂ efflux from both soil and litter (R _total), CO₂ flux from soil (R _soil), soil organic matter (SOM), soil microbe density, and litter input and root biomass at an uncut larch (Larix gmelinii) forest and at a natural restoration site. The natural restoration area is a clear-cut site that was formerly part of a continuous portion of the uncut larch forest. Our objectives were to: (1) quantify the magnitude of CO₂ efflux from typical sites in northeastern China; (2) explore the changes in thermal conditions, SOM, and annual CO₂ flux during the 6-year natural restoration, and (3) evaluate the impact of NFCP on soil carbon processes. The annual R _soil at the clear-cut site (58.6–68.2 mol m^???2 year^???1) was 113.6–228.4% (mean 141.5%) higher than that at the uncut larch site (29.6–58.4 mol m^???2 year^???1). At the same time, annual CO₂ from litter at the clear-cut site (2.0–14.2 mol m^???2 year^???1) was only 23.5–84.5% (mean 52.5%) of that at the uncut larch site (5.4–16.8 mol m^???2 year^???1). SOM at the surface layer of the clear-cut site was 75% of that at the uncut larch site, but the soil microbial biomass (carbon) at the clear-cut site was much higher than that at the larch site (p?<?0.05). The percentage of bacteria, fungi and actinomycetes also were largely different between both sites. Natural restoration at the clear-cut site strongly affected thermal conditions. Although the soil temperature (T _soil) and effective accumulated $T_{\rm soil} > 0^{\circ}$ C at the clear-cut site was much higher, the temperature sensitivity (Q ₁₀) was much lower than that at the uncut larch site, and their differences decreased linearly from 2001 to 2006 (p?<?0.05). Moreover, Q ₁₀ at the clear-cut site significantly increased with the progress of natural restoration, which diminished the Q ₁₀ difference between the two sites (slope?=???0.2792, r ²?=?0.4744, p?<?0.05). These data imply that the NFCP natural restoration process has positively recovered the thermal condition of the clear-cut site to the level of uncut larch forest during the 6-year period. However, linear regression analysis showed that the 6-year natural restoration only slightly affected the annual soil CO₂ efflux and SOM at both sites, and also did not diminish the differences between the two sites (p?>?0.10), indicating that a much longer time is necessary to restore the soil carbon in the clear-cut site.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest

The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m³/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha^?1 d^?1), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today’s mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.     

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China

Climate change can bring positive and negative effects on Chinese agriculture, but negative impacts tend to dominate. The annual mean surface temperature has risen about 0.5–0.8 °C. The precipitation trends have not been identified during the past 100 years in China, although the frequency and intensity of extreme weather/climate events have increased, especially of drought. Water scarcity, more frequent and serious outbreaks of insects and diseases, and soil degradation caused by climate change have impacted agro-environmental conditions. However, temperature rise prolonged the crop growth seasons and cold damages have reduced in Northeast China. The projection of climate change indicates that the surface temperature will continue to increase with about 3.9 to 6.0 °C and precipitation is expected to increase by 9 to 11 % at the end of 21st century in China. Climate warming will provide more heat and as a consequence, the boundary of the triple-cropping system (TCS) will extend northwards by as much as 200 to 300 km, from the Yangtze River Valley to the Yellow River Basin, and the current double-cropping system (DCS) will move to the central part of China, into the current single cropping system (SCS) area which will decrease in SCS surface area of 23.1 % by 2050. Climate warming will also affect the optimum location for the cultivation of China’s main crop varieties. If no measures are taken to adapt to climate changes, compared with the potential yield in 1961–1990, yields of irrigated wheat, corn and rice are projected to decrease by 2.2–6.7 %, 0.4 %–11.9 % and 4.3–12.4 % respectively in the 2050s. Climate warming will enhance potential evaporation and reduce the availability of soil moisture, thus causing a greater need for agricultural irrigation, intensifying the conflict between water supply and demand, especially in arid and semi-arid areas of China. With adequate irrigation, the extent of the reduction in yield of China’s corn and wheat can be improved by 5 % to 15 %, and rice by 5 % or so than the potential yield in 1961–1990. Adaptive measures can reduce the agricultural loss under climate change. If effective measures are taken in a timely way, then climate change in the next 30–50 years will not have a significant influence on China’s food security.     

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T_2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T_2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year^?1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year^?1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between $\Updelta$ SMB and $\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}$ of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year^?1 K^?1 is found.     

Formation of carbonyls and hydroperoxyenals (HPALDs) from the OH radical reaction of isoprene for low-NOx conditions: influence of temperature and water vapour content

The formation of gas-phase products from the reaction of OH radicals with isoprene for low-NO_x conditions ([NO_x] ≤ 10¹⁰ molecule cm^?3) has been studied in an atmospheric pressure flow tube (Institute for Tropospheric Research-Laminar Flow Tube, IfT-LFT) operating in the temperature range of 293–343 K and a relative humidity of < 0.5 % up to 50 %. The photolysis of H₂O₂ or ozone photolysis in the presence of water vapour served as the NO_x-free OH radical sources. For dry conditions at 293 K, the measured yields of methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), 0.07?±?0.02, and methacrolein (MACR), 0.12?±?0.04, were in reasonable agreement with literature data. Beside the C₄-carbonyls, further product signals have been attributed tentatively to glycolaldehyde, methylglyoxal, hydroxyacetone, 3-methylfuran, C₅-hydroperoxyenals (HPALDs) and C₅-hydroxy-hydroperoxides. A simplified, “classical” reaction mechanism without efficient HPALD production describes well the observed yield for MVK and MACR. Unexpected high MVK and MACR yields of up to 0.65 in total were measured under conditions of a relative humidity of 50 % using both OH radical sources and two different measurement techniques for organics (proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry and gas chromatography with flame ionization detector). The reaction mechanism applied is not able to describe the strong increase of MVK and MACR yields with increasing water vapour content. The signal attributed to the HPALDs showed a distinct rise of about one order of magnitude increasing the temperature from 293 K to 343 K. A rough estimate leads to a HPALD yield of 0.32 at 343 K with an uncertainty of a factor of two. The results of this study do not support a predominant formation of HPALDs under atmospheric conditions in low-NO_x areas. The surprisingly high MVK and MACR yields measured for a relative humidity of 50 % and the formation of glycolaldehyde, methylglyoxal and hydroxyacetone necessitate further research.     

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO₂ enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year^?1 (7 kg C ha^?1 year^?1) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO₂ enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO₂ manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.     

Palaeoprecipitation reconstruction by inverse modelling using the isotopic signal of loess organic matter: application to the Nußloch loess sequence (Rhine Valley, Germany)

A modified version of the Biome4 vegetation model for simulation of the mean δ¹³C of plant communities is presented, and used to reconstruct palaeoprecipitation. We treat all fractionations by C3 and C4 plants in all coexistent Plant Functional Types, weighted by their respective net primary production. We constrain the range of variation in the intracellular versus atmospheric CO₂ concentration by fixing a lower limit. Finally, we replace some constant parameters by functions of external forcing to account for their responses to environmental variation. The new version of Biome4 was applied as an inverse model and tested on three modern data sets. The fit between observations and simulations is very close to the 1:1 relationship, with respective slopes of 0.90±0.02 (r ²=0.98, n=29) for δ¹³C and 0.97±0.06 (r ²=0.90, n=29) for precipitation. Inverse modelling was applied using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to the Nußloch loess sequence. Over the last glaciation, simulated palaeoprecipitation varies between 240 mm year^?1 and 400 mm year^?1. This study clearly demonstrates atmospheric teleconnections with the Greenland ice-sheet extension, by matching Dansgaard-Oeschger events with precipitation increase of ca. 100–200 mm year^?1.     

Oxygen variance and meridional oxygen supply in the Tropical North East Atlantic oxygen minimum zone

The distribution of the mean oceanic oxygen concentration results from a balance between ventilation and consumption. In the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic, this balance creates extended oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) at intermediate depth. Here, we analyze hydrographic and velocity data from shipboard and moored observations, which were taken along the 23°W meridian cutting through the Tropical North East Atlantic (TNEA) OMZ, to study the distribution and generation of oxygen variability. By applying the extended Osborn–Cox model, the respective role of mesoscale stirring and diapycnal mixing in producing enhanced oxygen variability, found at the southern and upper boundary of the OMZ, is quantified. From the well-ventilated equatorial region toward the OMZ core a northward eddy-driven oxygen flux is observed whose divergence corresponds to an oxygen supply of about 2.4 μmol kg^?1 year^?1 at the OMZ core depth. Above the OMZ core, mesoscale eddies act to redistribute low- and high-oxygen waters associated with westward and eastward currents, respectively. Here, absolute values of the local oxygen supply >10 μmol kg^?1 year^?1 are found, likely balanced by mean zonal advection. Combining our results with recent studies, a refined oxygen budget for the TNEA OMZ is derived. Eddy-driven meridional oxygen supply contributes more than 50 % of the supply required to balance the estimated oxygen consumption. The oxygen tendency in the OMZ, as given by the multidecadal oxygen decline, is maximum slightly above the OMZ core and represents a substantial imbalance of the oxygen budget reaching about 20 % of the magnitude of the eddy-driven oxygen supply.     

Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of crop yield caused by climate and irrigation in the North China Plain

Grain yields of wheat and maize were obtained from national statistics and simulated with an agricultural system model to investigate the effects of historical climate variability and irrigation on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP). Both observed and simulated yields showed large temporal and spatial variability due to variations in climate and irrigation supply. Wheat yield under full irrigation (FI) was 8?t?ha^?1 or higher in 80% of seasons in the north, it ranged from 7 to 10?t?ha^?1 in 90% of seasons in central NCP, and less than 9?t?ha^?1 in 85% of seasons in the south. Reduced irrigation resulted in increased crop yield variability. Wheat yield under supplemental irrigation, i.e., to meet only 50% of irrigation water requirement [supplemental irrigation (SI)] ranged from 2.7 to 8.8?t?ha^?1 with the maximum frequency of seasons having the range of 4?C6?t?ha^?1 in the north, 4?C7?t?ha^?1 in central NCP, and 5?C8?t?ha^?1 in the south. Wheat yield under no irrigation (NI) was lower than 1?t?ha^?1 in about 50% of seasons. Considering the NCP as a whole, simulated maize yield under FI ranged from 3.9 to 11.8?t?ha^?1 with similar frequency distribution in the range of 6?C11.8?t?ha^?1 with the interval of 2?t?ha^?1. It ranged from 0 to 11.8?t?ha^?1, uniformly distributed into the range of 4?C10?t?ha^?1 under SI, and NI. The results give an insight into the levels of regional crop production affected by climate and water management strategies.     

Simulation of rice brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal.) population and crop-pest interactions to assess climate change impact

Brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal.) development studied at six constant temperatures, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 and 33 ±1 °C on rice plants revealed that developmental period from egg hatching to adult longevity decreased from 46.8 to 18.4 days as temperature increased from 19 to 31 °C. Through regression of development rate on temperature, thermal constant of small nymph (1st-2nd instar), large nymph (3rd–5th instar) and adult were determined to be 126.6, 140.8 and 161.3 degree days (DD), respectively with corresponding development threshold being 8.8, 9.5 and 9.6 °C. A thermal constant-based mechanistic-hemimetabolous-population model was adapted for BPH and linked with InfoCrop, a crop simulation model to simulate climate change impact on both the pest population and crop-pest interactions. The model was validated with field data at New Delhi and Aduthurai (Tamil Nadu, India), (R ²?=?0.96, RMSE?=?1.87 %). Climate-change-impact assessment through coupled BPH-InfoCrop model, in the light of the projected climate-change scenario for Indian subcontinent, showed a decline of 3.5 and 9.3–14 % in the BPH population by 2020 and 2050, respectively, during the rainy season at New Delhi, while the pest population exhibited only a small decline of 2.1–3.5 % during the winter at Aduthurai by 2050. BPH population decline is attributed to reduction in fecundity and survival by simulation model, which otherwise was not possible to account for with an empirical model. Concomitant to its population decline, BPH-induced yield loss also indicated a declining trend with temperature rise. However, the study considered the effect of only CO₂ and temperature rise on the BPH population and crop yield, and not that of probable changes in feeding rate and adaptive capacity of the pest.