Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe

The greenhouse gas inventory of the European Communities and its estimation of the uncertainty is built from 15 individual and independent greenhouse gas inventories. This presents a particular challenge and is possible only if homogeneous information is available for all member states and if a proper evaluation of correlation between member states is performed. To this end, we present a methodology that estimates a quantitative measure for the aggregated Tier-level as well as the uncertainty for the main categories in the agriculture sector. In contrast to the approach suggested in the IPCC guidelines, which uses uncertainty estimates for activity data and emissions factors for each source category, the method presented uses quantitative information from individual parameters used in the inventory calculations, in combination with a well defined procedure to aggregate the information. Not surprisingly, N₂O emissions from agricultural soils are found to dominate the uncertainty. The results demonstrate the importance of correlation, if uncertainties are combined for the whole of Europe. The biggest challenge seems to be to conceptually harmonize the uncertainty estimates for the activity data (which tend to be underestimated) and emission factors (which tend to be overestimated).     

Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty

An uncertainty assessment of the Austrian greenhouse gas inventory provided the basis for this analysis. We isolated the factors that were responsible for the uncertainty observed, and compared our results with those of other countries. Uncertainties of input parameters were used to derive the uncertainty of the emission estimate. Resulting uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach was 5.2% for the emission levels of 2005 and 2.4 percentage points for the 1990–2005 emission trend. Systematic uncertainty was not assessed. This result is in the range expected from previous experience in Austria and other countries. The determining factor for the emission level uncertainty (not the trend uncertainty) is the uncertainty associated with soil nitrous oxide N₂O emissions. Uncertainty of the soil N₂O release rate is huge, and there is no agreement even on the magnitude of the uncertainty when country comparisons are made. In other words, reporting and use of N₂O release uncertainty are also different between countries; this is important, as this single factor fully determines a country’s national greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty. Inter-country comparisons of emission uncertainty are thus unable to reveal much about a country’s inventory quality. For Austria, we also compared the results of the Monte Carlo approach to those obtained from a simpler error propagation approach, and find the latter to systematically provide lower uncertainty. The difference can be explained by the ability of the Monte Carlo approach to account for statistical dependency of input parameters, again regarding soil N₂O emissions. This is in contrast to the results of other countries, which focus less on statistical dependency when performing Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, the error propagation results depend on treatment of skewed probability distributions, which need to be translated into normal distributions. The result indicates that more attention needs to be given to identifying statistically dependent input data in uncertainty assessment.     

Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources

We investigate uncertainties about conventional petroleum resources and substitutes for conventional petroleum, focusing on the impact of these uncertainties on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We use examples from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios as a baseline for comparison. The studied uncertainties include, (1) uncertainty in emissions factors for petroleum substitutes, (2) uncertainties resulting from poor knowledge of the amount of remaining conventional petroleum, and (3) uncertainties about the amount of production of petroleum substitutes from natural gas and coal feedstocks. We find that the potential effects of a transition to petroleum substitutes on GHG emissions are significant. A transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources such as tar sands or coal-to-liquids synfuels could raise upstream GHG emissions by several gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) per year by mid-century unless mitigation steps are taken.     

The envivonment of the Russian Federation in 2006-2015: State and pollution dynamics

The present research is based on the annual Reviews of Environmental Conditions and Pollution in the Russian Federation and Yearbooks of Environmental Pollution in the Russian Federation for the period of 2006-2015. The parameters and estimates of abiotic environmental component (air, surface water, and soil) and radiation conditions are generalized from the data of the national observation system of environmental conditions (a base of the national system of environmental pollution monitoring in the Russian Federation) as well as from the data of local environmental observation systems. The results of the analysis of observational data and the conclusion on the conservation of high levels of air pollution in the cities and surface water pollution in many water bodies (including the assessment of priority of existing problems) are an important element of the informational support of state control of the sources of pollutant emissions (discharges) to the environment. The given information is also used for the comprehensive assessment of the influence of unfavorable environmental factors on the population health and terrestrial and water ecosystems. Besides, information on the dynamics and actual levels of environmental pollution allows assessing the efficiency of nature protection measures taking into account the observed trends and dynamics of variations.     

The EU as a frontrunner on greenhouse gas emissions trading: how did it happen and will the EU succeed?

The objective of this paper is first to provide empirical evidence of what can be seen as a rather remarkable change in EU’s position on the use of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading (ET) in climate policy, from the role of a sceptic in the run-up to Kyoto towards more of a frontrunner. The paper argues that there is a synergistic and multilevel mix of explanatory factors for this “U-turn”, including developments at the international, EU, Member State, sub-national, and even down to the personal level. Second, the paper explores and discusses the philosophy behind the Commission’s proposal for a directive on GHG ET. Third, the paper examines the prospects for ‘success’ of a scheme for EU-wide ET using a multifaceted set of metrics. In brief, we argue that output success—the chances for having a directive adopted—hinges on the resolution of two key issues. First, whether the preliminary phase is to be mandatory or voluntary, and second, incompatibilities with domestic ET schemes. Outcome success—steering and cost-effectiveness—will in turn depend on factors like the coverage of the scheme and inclusion of project-based credits, while more long-term political implications hinges on the successful adoption and operation of the scheme.

“The Proposal on emissions trading represents a major innovation for environmental policy in Europe. We are de facto creating a big new market, and we are determined to use market forces to achieve our climate objectives in the most cost-conscious way […]. The emissions trading system will be an important cornerstone in our strategy to reduce emissions in the most cost-effective way”.

Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström.     

碳中和视角下全球农业减排固碳政策措施及对中国的启示

碳中和是指人类活动造成的碳排放与全球人为碳吸收量在一定时期内达到平衡,也称为净零排放 [1].《巴黎协定》第四条提出采取减排增汇措施以实现21世纪后半叶人为温室气体排放量与汇的清除量达到平衡 [2].越来越多的国家正将其转化为战略和行动,目前已有100多个国家提出碳中和目标承诺,并明确了碳中和时间表.2020年9月第7...     

The impact of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme on reducing greenhouse gas emissions: findings from a facility-based study

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the Tokyo Metropolitan Emissions Trading Scheme (Tokyo ETS), Japan’s first emissions trading scheme with mandatory cap initiated by the government of Tokyo. Unlike trading schemes in other countries, the Tokyo ETS covers indirect emissions from the commercial sector. It is well known that a variety of market barriers impede full realization of energy efficiency opportunities, especially in the commercial sector. Experiences with the Tokyo ETS should therefore provide important lessons for the design of climate change mitigation policies, especially when targeting the commercial sector. The emissions from covered entities have been drastically reduced from those at the scheme’s outset, with an average 14% reduction as of the end of the first commitment period of five years (2010–2014) compared with 2009 levels. This paper shows that the Tokyo ETS alone did not cause these reductions; there were other drivers. Among them, the energy savings triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 were crucial. The contribution of credit trading, in contrast, was limited since most of the covered entities reduced emissions by themselves. Through an investigation of official reports, an assessment of the emissions data from the covered entities compared to those of uncovered entities and in-depth interviews with firms covered by the scheme, this paper confirms that the main drivers of emissions reductions by covered entities were separate from the ETS. In fact, the advisory aspect of the scheme seems to be much more important in encouraging energy-saving actions.

Key policy insights

• Most of the observed emission reductions were not caused by the Tokyo ETS alone.

• An advisory instrument was crucial to the effectiveness of the Tokyo ETS.

• The experience of the Tokyo ETS suggests that making full use of the advantages of emissions trading is difficult in the case of the commercial sector.

• Price signals have not provided a stimulus to climate change mitigation actions, which implies that establishing a cap to yield effective carbon prices poses a challenge.

     

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO₂ agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO₂ given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.     

An investigation of the tipping term as a prognostic tool in short-range thunderstorm forecasting

A nowcasting system, GANDOLF, was operated by the Met Office and the University of Salford during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP). The purpose of this project was to test and evaluate the current state-of-the-art in nowcasting technology, and initial verification by the University of Salford has shown GANDOLF's performance to be poor. The system uses a conceptual model of the life cycle of an idealised convective cell to forecast the evolution of radar-observed storms in an object-oriented fashion. Analysis has shown the implementation of the model to be inadequate due in part to its reliance on relatively low resolution NWP model forecasts rather than the use of conceptual modelling itself. The advent of very high resolution three dimensional wind fields produced by four dimensional variational analysis (4DVAR) modelling techniques offers a way of circumventing many of the problems inherent in GANDOLF, and such data have been obtained for the cases during which GANDOLF was operational. These were produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's VDRAS system, which was also operated during the FDP, as part of the three-dimensional US Autonowcast system. The wind data allowed the calculation of time series of the three-dimensional tipping term field, which, it is suggested, can be used as a prognostic tool in automated convection nowcasting. This paper summarises the theoretical background of the tipping term in the context of severe storms, and presents the results of a number of tests performed on the data. The conclusions of these tests indicate that the tipping term may be a useful prognostic tool. Observations of the increasing asymmetry in the tipping term couplet predicted by theory as convection reaches its maximum intensity may offer a way of improving objective analysis of the life cycle of cells.     

Clustering circulation in eastern Asia as a tool for exploring possible mechanisms of extreme events and sources of model error

Every summer in eastern Asia, the combined effects of complex topography, multiple potential moisture sources and a mixture of sub-tropical and mid-latitude dynamics produces an environment, in which subtle differences in spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation can profoundly affect the geographic distribution of rainfall. Understanding and quantifying these patterns is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand, predict or project rainfall events likely to cause impacts to society in the region. To help the scientific community with this task, a method is presented here, in which spatial patterns of summer sea level pressure over eastern Asia are clustered into a set of eight circulation types, with examples given of their potential use. We find that the within-season prevalence of individual circulation types exhibit a strong relationship with the seasonal progression of the summer monsoon whilst providing a spatially coherent, physical interpretation of the monsoon for all parts of eastern Asia. Beyond this, the clustering approach permits the attribution of notable rainfall anomalies in almost any location within the domain used to build the clusters. Examples are given, showing how circulation specific moisture transport anomalies in one part of China can result in anomalously dry days in another part of the country. Two further applications of the clustering approach are demonstrated using climate simulations. The first is of circulation specific model errors which can allow targeted model development. The second provides information about anomalies which are plausible, but have yet to be observed, possibly due to limitations in the observed record.

     

The application of tree-rings and stable isotopes for reconstructions of climate conditions in the Russian Altai

We present new tree-ring width, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁸O chronologies from the Koksu site (49°N, 86° E, 2,200 m asl), situated in the Russian Altai. A strong temperature signal is recorded in the tree-ring width (June-July) and stable isotope (July-August) chronologies, a July precipitation signal captured by the stable isotope data. To investigate the nature of common climatic patterns, our new chronologies are compared with previously published tree-ring and stable isotope data from other sites in the Altai region. The temperature signal preserved in the conifer trees is strongly expressed at local and regional scales for all studied sites, resulting in even stronger temperature and precipitation signals in combined average chronologies compared to separate chronologies. This enables the reconstruction of June-July and July-August temperatures for the last 200 years using tree-ring and stable carbon isotopes. A July precipitation reconstruction based on oxygen isotopic variability recorded in tree-rings can potentially improve the understanding of hydrological changes and the occurrence of extreme events in the Russian Altai.     

The importance of mesoscale phenomena on the dispersion of pollutants in the vicinity of a point-source emission

The effects of mesoscale meteorological phenomena on the transport of pollutants were analyzed by 3-dimensional dispersion calculations in case of a hypothetical nuclear accident. The results were in agreement with the earlier results obtained by Kestiet al. (1988) clearly indicating the importance of mesocale meteorological phenomena in short-range dispersion of pollutants.     

The pollen counts as bioindicator of meteorological trends and tool for assessing the status of endangered species: the case of Artemisia in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

This study sought to analyse the effects of climate change on Artemisia species growing in Sierra Nevada, a high mountain range in the south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, using pollen counts as a bioindicator. The study also examined the impact of Recovery Programmes implemented for the most endangered of these species. Analysis of historical Artemisia pollen-data series from 1992 to 2011 showed that flowering took place between late July and late September, but the trend towards higher summer temperatures detected over the series as a whole appeared to have delayed the start of flowering and brought forward the end of flowering, thus prompting a shortening of the season. A trend was also observed towards a delayed peak pollen period, together with a significant decline in the Annual Pollen Index, which was significantly influenced by rainfall over the months immediately prior to flowering. Recovery Programmes implemented for three species—Artemisia granatensis, A. alba subsp. nevadensis and A. umbelliformis—involved conservation measures including direct seeding and planting of seedlings. From the outset, these programmes led to a recovery of the Pollen Index, especially when using germinated seedlings, which adapted better than seeds to environmental conditions. In conclusion, pollen records proved to be a useful tool for assessing the status of endangered species.     

The impact of different vertical diffusion schemes in a three-dimensional oil spill model in the Bohai Sea

Vertical transport is critical to the movement of oil spills in seawater. Breaking waves play an important role by developing a well-defined mixing layer in the upper part of the water column. A three-dimensional （3-D） Lagrangian random walk oil spill model was used here to study the influence of sea surface waves on the vertical turbulence movement of oil particles. Three vertical diffusion schemes were utilized in the model to compare their impact on oil dispersion and transportation. The first scheme calculated the vertical eddy viscosity semi-empirically. In the second scheme, the vertical diffusion coefficient was obtained directly from an Eulerian hydrodynamic model （Princeton Ocean Model, POM2k） while considering wave- caused turbulence. The third scheme was formulated by solving the Langevin equation. The trajectories, percentages of oil particles intruding into water, and the vertical distribution structures of oil particles were analyzed for a series of numerical experiments with different wind magnitudes. The results showed that the different vertical diffusion schemes could generate different horizontal trajectories and spatial distributions of oil spills on the sea surface. The vertical diffusion schemes caused different water-intruding and resurfacing oil particle behaviors, leading to different horizontal transport of oil particles at the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The vertical diffusion schemes were also applied to a realistic oil spill simulation, and these results were compared to satellite observations. All three schemes yielded acceptable results, and those of the third scheme most closely simulated the observed data.     

Evaluation of a catalytic reduction technique for the measurement of total reactive odd-nitrogen NO y in the atmosphere

A catalytic reduction technique for the measurement of total reactive odd-nitrogen NO _y in the atmosphere was evaluated in laboratory and field tests. NO _y component species include NO, NO₂, NO₃, HNO₃, N₂O₅, CH₃COO₂NO₂(PAN), and particulate nitrate. The technique utilizes the reduction of the higher oxides to NO in reaction with CO on a metal catalyst and the subsequent detection of NO by chemiluminescence produced in reaction with O₃. The efficiency and linearity of the conversion of the principal NO _y species were examined for mixing ratios in the range of 0.1 to 100 parts per billion by volume (ppbv). Results of tests with Au, Ni, and stainless steel as the catalyst in the temperature range of 25–500°C showed Au to be the preferred catalyst. NH₃, HCN, N₂O, CH₄, and various chlorine and sulfur compounds were checked as possible sources of NO _y interference with the Au catalyst. The effects of pressure, O₃, and H₂O on NO _y conversion were also examined. The results of the checks and tests in the laboratory showed the technique to be suitable for initial NO _y measurements in the atmosphere. The technique was subsequently tested in ambient air at a remote ground-based field site located near Niwot Ridge, Colorado. The results of conversion and inlet tests made in the field and a summary of the NO _y data are included in the discussion.     

Simulation games as a catalyst for social learning: The case of the water-food-energy nexus game

Role-playing simulations have gained in popularity in recent years as a novel method of engaging researchers and stakeholders in a variety of social and environmental issues. While academic interest has grown on this topic, knowledge remains sparse on the underlying theories that may guide the design of such games. Thsi article introduces a new game design framework - Com­pleC­Sus (Com­plex­ity-Col­lab­o­ra­tion-Sus­tain­abil­ity) - built on the concepts of social learning and procedural rhetoric. We describe and discuss the conceptual basis for our framework, giving a detailed account of its application through the recently developed the Water–Food–Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game) as an example. We illustrate the process involved in designing the Nexus Game through initial scoping, prototyping, and design decisions, and how game structure and debriefing have been crafted to foster social learning focused on the understanding of the underlying social-ecological system as well as fostering collaboration between stakeholders. We also provide the analysis of qualitative data collected during recent gaming sessions across three continents to evaluate the Nexus Game’s potential learning effects.