Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

大气季节内振荡的活动与江淮流域夏季旱涝

观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚.     

Interactive Aspects of the Indian and the African Summer Monsoon Systems

This study addresses an understanding of the possible mutual interactions of sub-seasonal variability of the two neighboring regional monsoon systems through data analysis. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and OLR data for three years was used to reveal the large-scale organization of convective episodes on synoptic (~5 days) and low frequency (15–50 day) scales. It is found that synoptic scale organization over both the sectors is influenced by the eastward migration of large-scale convective episodes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the low frequency scale. The organization of convection associated with the African monsoon on the synoptic scale is influenced by the pulsatory character of lower mid-troposphere and upper troposphere wind regimes moving westward over the African sector. Over the Indian region formation of low pressure areas and depressions in the monsoon trough occur in an overlapping manner under an envelope of low frequency seasonal oscillation. We have also found some correspondence between the summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa and India on a decadal basis, which would suggest a common mode of multi-decadal variability in the two monsoon systems. The study points out the need to organize simultaneous field campaigns over the Indian and the African monsoon regions so as to bring out observational features of possible interactions between the two neighboring systems, which could then be validated through modeling studies.     

Seasonal Prediction for the Indian Monsoon Region with FSU Ocean-atmosphere Coupled Model: Model Mean and 2002 Anomalous Drought

Seasonal climate prediction for the Indian summer monsoon season is critical for strategic planning of the region. The mean features of the Indian summer monsoon and its variability, produced by versions of the ‘Florida State University Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’ (FSUCGCM) hindcasts, are investigated for the period 1987 to 2002. The coupled system has full global ocean and atmospheric models with coupled assimilation. Four member models were created by choosing different combinations of parameterizations of the physical processes in the atmospheric model component. Lower level wind flow patterns and rainfall associated with the summer monsoon season are examined from this fully coupled model seasonal integrations. By comparing with observations, the mean monsoon condition simulated by this coupled model for the June, July and August periods is seen to be reasonably realistic. The overall spatial low-level wind flow patterns and the precipitation distributions over the Indian continent and adjoining oceanic regions are comparable with the respective analyses. The anomalous below normal large-scale precipitation and the associated anomalous low-level wind circulation pattern for the summer monsoon season of 2002 was predicted by the model three months in advance. For the Indian summer monsoon, the ensemble mean is able to reproduce the mean features better compared to individual member models.     

Charge distribution on the atmospheric aerosol over the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean

The distribution of electric charge on the marine aerosol was determined near the sea surface of the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic during the final stage of the Snellius II-expedition. Mean values for small ion concentrationsn ⁺=455 cm^–3 andn ^–=340 cm^–3 were found over the Atlantic, whilen ⁺=310 andn ^–=250 cm^–3 were the mean values over the Indian Ocean. The ration ⁺/n^– increased from 1.2 to 2.0 with decreasing wind velocity. At wind velocities below 5 m/s 75% of the net space charge near the ocean surface was found to be carried by small ions.     

Assimilation of SLA and SST data into an OGCM for the Indian Ocean

 Remotely sensed observations of sea-level anomaly and sea-surface temperature have been assimilated into an implementation of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) for the Indian Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The system has been applied in a hindcast validation experiment to examine the properties of the assimilation scheme when used with a full ocean general circulation model and real observations. This work is considered as a first step towards an operational ocean monitoring and forecasting system for the Indian Ocean. The assimilation of real data has demonstrated that the sequential EnKF can efficiently control the model evolution in time. The use of data assimilation requires a significant amount of additional processing and computational resources. However, we have tried to justify the cost of using a sophisticated assimilation scheme by demonstrating strong regional and temporal dependencies of the covariance statistics, which include highly anisotropic and flow-dependent correlation functions. In particular, we observed a marked difference between error statistics in the equatorial region and at off-equatorial latitudes. We have also demonstrated how the assimilation of SLA and SST improves the model fields with respect to real observations. Independent in situ temperature profiles have been used to examine the impact of assimilating the remotely sensed observations. These intercomparisons have shown that the model temperature and salinity fields better resemble in situ observations in the assimilation experiment than in a model free-run case. On the other hand, it is also expected that assimilation of in situ profiles is needed to properly control the deep ocean circulation. Received: 8 January 2002 / Accepted: 8 April 2002     

A Study on Climatological Features of the Asian Summer Monsoon: Dynamics, Energetics and Variability

A continuing goal in the diagnostic studies of the atmospheric general circulation is to estimate various quantities that cannot be directly observed. Evaluation of all the dynamical terms in the budget equations for kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture provide estimates of kinetic energy and vorticity generation, diabatic heating and source/sinks of moisture. All these are important forcing factors to the climate system. In this paper, diagnostic aspects of the dynamics and energetics of the Asian summer monsoon and its spatial variability in terms of contrasting features of surplus and deficient summer monsoon seasons over India are studied with reanalysis data sets. The daily reanalysis data sets from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used for a fifty-two year (1948–1999) period to investigate the large-scale budget of kinetic energy, vorticity, heat and moisture. The primary objectives of the study are to comprehend the climate diagnostics of the Asian summer monsoon and the role of equatorial convection of the summer monsoon activity over India.It is observed that the entrance/exit regions of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) are characterized by the production/destruction of the kinetic energy, which is essential to maintain outflow/inflow prevailing at the respective location of the TEJ. Both zonal and meridional components contribute to the production of kinetic energy over the monsoon domain, though the significant contribution to the adiabatic generation of kinetic energy originates from the meridional component over the Bay of Bengal in the upper level and over the Somali Coast in the low level. The results indicate that the entire Indian peninsula including the Bay of Bengal is quite unstable during the summer monsoon associated with the production of vorticity within the domain itself and maintain the circulation. The summer monsoon evinces strong convergence of heat and moisture over the monsoon domain. Also, considerable heat energy is generated through the action of the adiabatic process. The combined effect of these processes leads to the formation of a strong diabatic heat source in the region to maintain the monsoon circulation. The interesting aspect noted in this study is that the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture indicate excess magnitudes over the Arabian Sea and the western equatorial Indian Ocean during surplus monsoon. On the other hand, the east equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal region show stronger activity during deficient monsoon. This is reflected in various budget terms considered in this study.     

印度洋9.0级大地震激发的基频地球球型振荡

分析了中国数字地震台网（CDSN）改造后的余山台（SSE）甚长周期地震仪（STS-1，瑞士生产）观测到的大地震后3天的VHZ波形资料，利用功率谱密度估计方法，在没有对资料进行去固体潮处理的情况下，准确获得了2004年12月26日印度洋地震激发的基频球型振荡，并与地球初步参考模型（PREM）的理论自由振荡周期进行了对比，发现实测振荡周期与PREM预测的振荡周期其本符合。其细微差异可以用来研究和解释地球介质的横向不均匀性和各向异性等现象。     

北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素分析

本文基于1979-2014年臭氧总量的卫星遥感数据,利用多元线性回归模型对臭氧总量数据序列进行模拟计算,考察了北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素的作用.结果表明,北太平洋地区大气臭氧总量长期变化呈现减少趋势,但是减少速率随季节和纬度带表现出差异性,在各纬度带臭氧峰值季节臭氧下降趋势最为显著.在0°-15°N地区臭氧高值出现在夏秋季节并在8月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率约为0.2DU/a;15°-30°N亚热带地区臭氧高值出现在春夏季并在5月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降速率约为0.22DU/a;而在30°-45°N中纬度地区臭氧高值出现在冬春季并在2月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率0.75DU/a.在臭氧分布年平均态基础上,影响臭氧总量分布变化的因素主要有臭氧损耗物质（EESC）、太阳辐射周期（Solar）、准两年振荡（QBO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）等.其中,EESC导致臭氧损耗效应随着纬度升高而增大,在从低到高的三个纬度带损耗最大值分别为11DU、16DU和66DU;Solar增强导致臭氧增加,在三个纬度带的增加效应最大值分别为16DU、17DU和19DU;QBO@10 hPa和QBO@30 hPa对臭氧影响幅度基本在±10DU内波动,只有QBO@10 hPa对30°-45°N区域的影响作用达到14DU,值得注意的是QBO影响作用随着纬度变化存在相位差异,在0°-15°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相同相位,而在15°-30°N和30°-45°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相反相位;ENSO对各个纬度带臭氧影响幅度也在±10DU内,ENSO影响作用在不同纬度带也存在相位差异,臭氧总量变化在0°-15°N、15°-30°N区域与ENSO相位相反,在30°-45°N区域与ENSO相位一致.     

Foraminiferal evidence of submarine sediment transport and deposition by backwash during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Micropaleontological analysis of nearshore to offshore sediments recovered from the southwestern coast of Thailand was performed to clarify the submarine processes of sediment transport and deposition during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The distribution pattern of benthic foraminifers showed seaward migration after the tsunami event. Agglutinated foraminifers, which are characteristic of an intertidal brackish environment, were identified in the post-tsunami samples from foreshore to offshore zones. These suggest that sediments originally distributed in foreshore to nearshore zones were transported offshore due to the tsunami backwash. On the other hand, the distribution pattern of planktonic and benthic species living in offshore zones showed slight evidence of landward migration by the tsunami. This suggests that landward redistribution of sediments by the tsunami run-up did not occur in the offshore seafloor of the study area. Our results and a review of previous studies provide an interpretation of submarine sedimentation by tsunamis. It is possible that tsunami backwashes induce sediment flows that transport a large amount of coastal materials seaward. Thus, traces of paleotsunami backwashes can be identified in offshore sedimentary environments as the accumulation of allochthonous materials. This can be recognized as changes in benthic foraminiferal assemblages.     

Simulation of groundwater dynamics in the North China Plain by coupled hydrology and agricultural models

We simulated the effects of irrigation on groundwater flow dynamics in the North China Plain by coupling the NIES Integrated Catchment‐based Ecohydrology (NICE) model with DSSAT‐wheat and DSSAT‐maize, two agricultural models. This combined model (NICE‐AGR) was applied to the Hai River catchment and the lower reach of the Yellow River (530 km wide by 840 km long) at a resolution of 5 km. It reproduced excellently the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and crop production of summer maize and winter wheat, correctly estimating crop water use. So, the spatial distribution of crop water use was reasonably estimated at daily steps in the simulation area. In particular, NICE‐AGR reproduced groundwater levels better than the use of statistical water use data. This indicates that NICE‐AGR does not need detailed statistical data on water use, making it very powerful for evaluating and estimating the water dynamics of catchments with little statistical data on seasonal water use. Furthermore, the simulation reproduced the spatial distribution of groundwater level in 1987 and 1988 in the Hebei Plain, showing a major reduction of groundwater level due mainly to overpumping for irrigation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential benefits to fisheries and biodiversity of the Chagos Archipelago/British Indian Ocean Territory as a no-take marine reserve

On 1st April 2010, the British Government announced designation of the British Indian Ocean Territory - or Chagos Archipelago - as the world’s largest marine protected area (MPA). This near pristine ocean ecosystem now represents 16% of the worlds fully protected coral reef, 60% of the world’s no-take protected areas and an uncontaminated reference site for ecological studies. In addition these gains for biodiversity conservation, the Chagos/BIOT MPA also offers subsidiary opportunities to act as a fisheries management tool for the western Indian Ocean, considering its size and location. While the benefits of MPAs for coral-reef dwelling species are established, there is uncertainty about their effects on pelagic migratory species. This paper reviews the increasing body of evidence to demonstrate that positive, measurable reserve effects exist for pelagic populations and that migratory species can benefit from no-take marine reserves.     

交互集合耦合模式系统对北太平洋SST变率和ENSO的模拟检验

清华大学地球系统科学研究中心在一个标准耦合模式（SC）的基础上建立了交互集合耦合模式系统（IE）,该系统可以实现多个不同大气模式或者同一大气模式采取不同初值组成的多个分量集合之后与海、陆、冰模式进行耦合.本文利用同一大气模式七个不同初值分量与其它模式分量开展在线集合耦合试验,利用积分稳定之后100年的试验结果,分析了IE在减小海-气界面大气噪音的情况下,对北太平洋海表面温度（SST）变率和ENSO的模拟,并与SC模拟结果进行了对比.分析表明,IE减小了北太平洋中高纬度SST方差的85%以上,表明该区域SST变率主要受大气的影响,且主要是通过改变海表湍流热通量实现的.黑潮延伸体区和北太平洋中部副热带涡旋区域平均SST 8年左右的低频周期主要受来自大气内部动力过程的驱动.在集合耦合模拟中,无论是副热带涡旋区SST与ENSO的联系,还是ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST的联系都能模拟出来,而标准模式未能模拟出这些现象,意味着大气噪音过强将掩盖ENSO与太平洋热带外SST的联系.IE对与ENSO关联的“太平洋—北美”（PNA）遥相关型的合理模拟,并通过湍流热通量对海表温度的影响,是其能够更好模拟ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST关系的重要原因.本文通过分析验证了所建立的交互集合耦合模式系统的合理性,揭示了该系统在海-气相互作用研究领域方面具有一定应用前景.     

Magnetic properties of sediments in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea: impact of rapid North Atlantic Ocean climatic events on the strength of the Indian monsoon

The results of a high-resolution mineral magnetic study combined with major element geochemistry analysis, oxygen isotopes and ¹⁴C AMS stratigraphy are reported for deep-sea gravity cores MD77-169 and MD77-180 located in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, respectively. Core MD77-169 covers the last 280 kyr and core MD77-180 covers the last 160 kyr. In both cores, rock magnetic parameters indicate that the magnetic assemblage is dominated by pseudo-single domain titanomagnetite grains, with grain-size variations following a strong 23 kyr periodicity. Smaller magnetic grain sizes are observed during periods characterized by a strong summer monsoon. In addition, in core MD77-180, we observe a correlation between magnetic grain size and a chemical index of alteration. This suggests that these magnetic grain-size changes are related to chemical weathering driven by summer monsoon rainfall. A comparison of the GISP2 ice core isotopic record and the magnetic grain-size record of the Bay of Bengal shows that rapid temperature variations documented in the ice core (Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events), during the last glacial period are also present in the magnetic grain-size record. Heinrich events and cold stadial events are characterized by relatively large magnetic grain sizes. Furthermore, Heinrich events are characterized by lower values of the chemical index of alteration implying a lower degree of chemical weathering related to significantly drier conditions on the continent. We suggest that rapid cold events of the North Atlantic (Heinrich events) during the last glacial stages are characterized by a weaker summer monsoon rainfall over the Himalaya via an atmospheric teleconnection.     

The behavior of specific sediment yield in different grain size fractions in the tributaries of the middle Yellow River as influenced by eolian and fluvial processes

Based on data from 35 stations on the tributaries of the Yellow River, annual specific sediment yield (Y_s) in eight grain size fractions has been related to basin‐averaged annual sand–dust storm days (D_ss) and annual precipitation (P_m) to reveal the influence of eolian and fluvial processes on specific sediment yield in different grain size fractions. The results show that Y_s in fine grain size fractions has the highest values in the areas dominated by the coupled wind–water process. From these areas to those dominated by the eolian process or to those dominated by the fluvial process, Y_s tends to decrease. For relatively coarse grain size fractions, Y_s has monotonic variation, i.e. with the increase in D_ss or the decrease in P_m, Y_s increases. This indicates that the sediment producing behavior for fine sediments is different from that for relatively coarse sediments. The results all show that Y_s for relatively coarse sediments depends on the eolian process more than on the fluvial process, and the coarser the sediment fractions the stronger the dependence of the Y_s on the eolian process. The Y_s–D_ss and Y_s–P_m curves for fine grain size fractions show some peaks and the fitted straight lines for Y_s–D_ss and Y_s–P_m relationships for relatively coarse grain size fractions show some breaks. Almost all these break points may be regarded as thresholds. These thresholds are all located in the areas dominated by the coupled wind–water process, indicating that these areas are sensitive for erosion and sediment production, to which more attention should be given for the purpose of erosion and sediment control. A number of regression equations were established, based which the effect of rainfall, sand–dust storms and surface material grain size on specific sediment yield can be assessed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

History of anthropogenic nitrogen input to the German Bight/SE North Sea as reflected by nitrogen isotopes in surface sediments,sediment cores and hindcast models

The German Bight/SE North Sea is considered a hot-spot of river-induced eutrophication, but the scarce observational data of river nitrate loads prior to the 1970s complicate the assessment of target conditions for environmental management and legislation. Stable nitrogen isotope ratios (δ¹⁵N) in sediment records can be used to decipher historical river nitrate contributions. To better constrain pre-1970s conditions, we determined δ¹⁵N in archive sediment samples (1950–1969) and dated cores from the Helgoland depositional area. We also modeled the δ¹⁵N in past situations (1960 and 1860) using an N-isotope-tracking ecosystem model. The modeled spatial distribution of δ¹⁵N in sediments for 1960 conditions and the observed spatial pattern of δ¹⁵N in archive sediment samples (1950–1969) represent a period of moderate eutrophication. The modeled spatial distribution of δ¹⁵N in sediments for 1860 conditions (pre-industrial) showed a moderate δ¹⁵N gradient from the Elbe river mouth (δ¹⁵N<4‰) to the open sea (δ¹⁵N∼5‰). This pattern contrasts with the δ¹⁵N pattern in modern surface sediments, which exhibits a steep and inverted δ¹⁵N gradient from the Elbe river mouth (δ¹⁵N>9‰) to the open sea (δ¹⁵N<7‰). Modeled δ¹⁵N for 1860 conditions are consistent with δ¹⁵N values observed in dated sediment cores that span the last 900 years. Value of δ¹⁵N in sediment cores increased from approximately 1860 to 2000 by 2.5‰. The increasing trend reflects changes in the abundance and isotopic composition of riverine nitrate loads caused by anthropogenic activities. Sensitivity tests suggest that loads and isotopic ratios of nitrogen forms other than nitrate (ammonium and organic nitrogen) have minor impact on the modeled surface sediments, despite their higher abundance in the riverborne loads in the past. Our results suggest that eutrophication of the German Bight predates the 1960 period of documented rapidly increasing river loads. Pre-industrial levels of δ¹⁵N modeled with 28% of the modern annual (1990–1999) atmospheric loads and 10% of the modern annual river loads agree best with levels of δ¹⁵N (∼6‰) observed in sediments of the cores dated to 1860.