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1.
Freezing characteristics were investigated for a sedge covered floating fen and spruce covered swamp located beside a shallow lake in the Western Boreal Forest of Canada. Thermal properties were measured in situ for one freeze‐thaw cycle, and for two freeze‐thaw cycles in laboratory columns. Thermal conductivity and liquid water content were related to a range of subsurface temperatures above and below the freezing thresholds, and clearly illustrate hysteresis between the freezing and thawing process. Thermal hysteresis occurs because of the large change in thermal conductivity between water and ice, high water content of the peat, and wide variation in pore sizes that govern ice formation. Field and laboratory results were combined to develop linear freezing functions, which were tested in a heat transfer model. For surface temperature boundary conditions, subsurface temperatures were simulated for the over‐winter period and compared with field measurements. Replication of the transient subsurface thermal regime required that freezing functions transition gradually from thawed to frozen state (spanning the ?0·25 to ?2 °C range) as opposed to a more abrupt step function. Subsurface temperatures indicate that the floating fen underwent complete phase change (from water to ice) and froze to approximately the same depth as lake ice thickness. Therefore, the floating fen peatland froze as a ‘shelf’ adjacent to the lake, whereas the spruce covered swamp had a higher capacity for thermal buffering, and subsurface freezing was both more gradual and limited in depth. These thermal properties, and the timing and duration of frozen state, are expected to control the interaction of water and nutrients between surface water and groundwater, which will be affected by changes in air temperature associated with global climate change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Groundwater temperature is an important water quality parameter that affects species distributions in subsurface and surface environments. To investigate the response of subsurface temperature to atmospheric climate change, an analytical solution is derived for a one‐dimensional, transient conduction–advection equation and verified with numerical methods using the finite element code SUTRA. The solution can be directly applied to forward model the impact of future climate change on subsurface temperature profiles or inversely applied to produce a surface temperature history from measured borehole profiles. The initial conditions are represented using superimposed linear and exponential functions, and the boundary condition is expressed as an exponential function. This solution expands on a classic solution in which the initial and boundary conditions were restricted to linear functions. The exponential functions allow more flexibility in matching climate model projections (boundary conditions) and measured temperature–depth profiles (initial conditions). For example, measured borehole temperature data from the Sendai Plain and Tokyo, Japan, were used to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the exponential function for replicating temperature–depth profiles. Also, the improved accuracy of the exponential boundary condition was demonstrated using air temperature anomaly data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These air temperature anomalies were then used to forward model the effect of surficial thermal perturbations in subsurface environments with significant groundwater flow. The simulation results indicate that recharge can accelerate shallow subsurface warming, whereas upward groundwater discharge can enhance deeper subsurface warming. Additionally, the simulation results demonstrate that future groundwater temperatures obtained from the proposed analytical solution can deviate significantly from those produced with the classic solution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computation time. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is a semi‐distributed model that has been successfully applied around the world. However, it has not been able to simulate the two‐way exchanges between surface water and groundwater. In this study, the SWAT‐landscape unit (LU) model – based on a catena method that routes flow across three LUs (the divide, the hillslope and the valley) – was modified and applied in the floodplain of the Garonne River. The modified model was called SWAT‐LUD. Darcy's equation was applied to simulate groundwater flow. The algorithm for surface water‐level simulation during flooding periods was modified, and the influence of flooding on groundwater levels was added to the model. Chloride was chosen as a conservative tracer to test simulated water exchanges. The simulated water exchange quantity from SWAT‐LUD was compared with the output of a two‐dimensional distributed model, surface–subsurface water exchange model. The results showed that simulated groundwater levels in the LU adjoining the river matched the observed data very well. Additionally, SWAT‐LUD model was able to reflect the actual water exchange between the river and the aquifer. It showed that river water discharge has a significant influence on the surface–groundwater exchanges. The main water flow direction in the river/groundwater interface was from groundwater to river; water that flowed in this direction accounted for 65% of the total exchanged water volume. The water mixing occurs mainly during high hydraulic periods. Flooded water was important for the surface–subsurface water exchange process; it accounted for 69% of total water that flowed from the river to the aquifer. The new module also provides the option of simulating pollution transfer occurring at the river/groundwater interface at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
In mountainous river basins of the Pacific Northwest, climate models predict that winter warming will result in increased precipitation falling as rain and decreased snowpack. A detailed understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of water sources across river networks will help illuminate climate change impacts on river flow regimes. Because the stable isotopic composition of precipitation varies geographically, variation in surface water isotope ratios indicates the volume-weighted integration of upstream source water. We measured the stable isotope ratios of surface water samples collected in the Snoqualmie River basin in western Washington over June and September 2017 and the 2018 water year. We used ordinary least squares regression and geostatistical Spatial Stream Network models to relate surface water isotope ratios to mean watershed elevation (MWE) across seasons. Geologic and discharge data was integrated with water isotopes to create a conceptual model of streamflow generation for the Snoqualmie River. We found that surface water stable isotope ratios were lowest in the spring and highest in the dry, Mediterranean summer, but related strongly to MWE throughout the year. Low isotope ratios in spring reflect the input of snowmelt into high elevation tributaries. High summer isotope ratios suggest that groundwater is sourced from low elevation areas and recharged by winter precipitation. Overall, our results suggest that baseflow in the Snoqualmie River may be relatively resilient to predicted warming and subsequent changes to snowpack in the Pacific Northwest.  相似文献   

5.
Groundwater recharge and discharge in the Akesu alluvial plain were estimated using a water balance method. The Akesu alluvial plain (4842 km2) is an oasis located in the hyperarid Tarim River basin of central Asia. The land along the Akesu River has a long history of agricultural development and the irrigation area is highly dependent on water withdrawals from the river. We present a water balance methodology to describe (a) surface water and groundwater interaction and (b) groundwater interaction between irrigated and non‐irrigated areas. Groundwater is recharged from the irrigation system and discharged in the non‐irrigated area. Uncultivated vegetation and wetlands are supplied from groundwater in the hyperarid environment. Results show that about 90% of groundwater recharge came from canal loss and field infiltration. The groundwater flow from irrigated to non‐irrigated areas was about 70% of non‐irrigated area recharge and acted as subsurface drainage for the irrigation area. This desalinated the irrigation area and supplied water to the non‐irrigated area. Salt moved to the non‐irrigation area following subsurface drainage. We conclude that the flooding of the Akesu River is a supplemental groundwater replenishment mechanism: the river desalinates the alluvial plain by recharging fresh water in summer and draining saline regeneration water in winter. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Subsurface temperatures were analyzed to evaluate the effects of urbanization and groundwater flow in Osaka, the second largest metropolitan in Japan. The temperature-depth profiles were classified into three (recharge, intermediate and discharge) types based on the thermal gradient, shape of the profiles, and temperature itself. The locations of the three types of profiles represent the places of regional and local groundwater flow systems in Osaka plain. The analyses of subsurface temperature using heat conduction-convection theory under the condition of surface warming showed that the depth of minimum temperature in the profile increased with the groundwater recharge rate and time lapse from the beginning of surface warming due to urbanization. Comparisons between observed and estimated temperature profiles showed that the surface warming due to urbanization is larger and occurred earlier in the middle of the city than those in surrounding area, which agreed with the air temperature records.  相似文献   

7.
Research to date affirmed the key role of stream–aquifer interactions in integrated water resources management. The importance of river hydrodynamics on the spatial and temporal behaviour of groundwater was, however, not yet fully investigated. In contrast to the common approach where topography-based estimates of riverbed elevation may lead to inappropriate discretization and constant river stages, this study couples a fully hydrodynamic and one-dimensional river model to a two-dimensional catchment hydrological model. The surface and subsurface runoff, groundwater, and river components are integrated into a single modelling framework. The coupled model was applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium with three model setups, in which the level of detail of representation of river hydrodynamics varies. Further model iterations were carried out for the most exhaustive setup to assess the importance of the bi-directional interactions between model components. Results show that higher details of river hydrodynamics help to improve the simulation of time-averaged groundwater levels. However, the impacts were not that clear for the time-varying groundwater levels. Moreover, visual and statistical model performance evaluation indicates a strong enhancement of the coupled models compared to the output from the hydrological model with respect to river discharge observations at catchment outlet and at internal stations. It also reveals the impact of river hydrodynamics on groundwater discharges when the most detailed setting delivered the highest performance among the three coupled models.  相似文献   

8.
Conant B 《Ground water》2004,42(2):243-257
Streambed temperature mapping, hydraulic testing using minipiezometers, and geochemical analyses of interstitial water of the streambed were used to delineate the pattern of ground water discharge in a sandy streambed and to develop a flux-based conceptual model for ground water/surface water interactions. A new and simple empirical method was used to relate fluxes obtained from minipiezometer data to streambed temperatures. The relationship allowed flux to be calculated at locations where only streambed temperature measurements were made. Slug testing and potentiomanometer measurements at 34 piezometers indicated ground water discharge ranged from 0.03 to 446 L/m2/day (and possibly as high as 7060 L/m2/day) along a 60 m long by 11 to 14 m wide reach of river. Complex but similar plan-view patterns of flux were calculated for both summer and winter using hundreds of streambed temperatures measured on a 1 by 2 m grid. The reach was dominated by ground water discharge and 5% to 7% of the area accounted for approximately 20% to 24% of the total discharge. < 12% of the total area consisted of recharge zones or no-discharge zones. A conceptual model for ground water/surface water interactions consisting of five different behaviors was developed based on the magnitude and direction of flux across the surface of the streambed. The behaviors include short-circuit discharge (e.g., high-flow springs), high discharge (e.g., preferential flowpaths), low to moderate discharge, no discharge (e.g., horizontal hyporheic or ground water flow), and recharge. Geological variations at depth played a key role in determining which type of flow behavior occurred in the streambed.  相似文献   

9.
Isotope tracers are widely used to study hydrological processes in small catchments, but their use in continental-scale hydrological modeling has been limited. This paper describes the development of an isotope-enabled global water balance and transport model (iWBM/WTM) capable of simulating key hydrological processes and associated isotopic responses at the large scale. Simulations and comparisons of isotopic signals in precipitation and river discharge from available datasets, particularly the IAEA GNIP global precipitation climatology and the USGS river isotope dataset spanning the contiguous United States, as well as selected predictions of isotopic response in yet unmonitored areas illustrate the potential for isotopes to be applied as a diagnostic tool in water cycle model development. Various realistic and synthetic forcings of the global hydrologic and isotopic signals are discussed. The test runs demonstrate that the primary control on isotope composition of river discharge is the isotope composition of precipitation, with land surface characteristics and precipitation-amount having less impact. Despite limited availability of river isotope data at present, the application of realistic climatic and isotopic inputs in the model also provides a better understanding of the global distribution of isotopic variations in evapotranspiration and runoff, and reveals a plausible approach for constraining the partitioning of surface and subsurface runoff and the size and variability of the effective groundwater pool at the macro-scale.  相似文献   

10.
Concepts and terms used in previous multidisciplinary studies of tile-drained aquitard-dominated catchments (TDADC) are inconsistent and confusing. We provide a well-defined, comprehensive conceptual model of the subsurface hydrology of TDADC by selecting seven mutually compatible and consistent concepts. These concepts are: (1) groundwater as the main source of baseflow in headwater streams, (2) dominance of ‘pre-event’ water in stormflow, (3) importance of both macropores and matrix, (4) changes in flowpaths with rate of stream discharge, (5) dominance of shallow, lateral subsurface flow, (6) interactive nature of subsurface water, (7) transpiration of groundwater. This conceptual model was successfully ‘field-tested’ by examining data collected in a TDADC in a rural area of southern Ontario, Canada. The data consist mainly of chemical and isotopes tracers in water samples (headwater streams, groundwater, precipitation, tile water, soil-surface water), supplemented by water levels and meteorological data.  相似文献   

11.
Seven longitudinal water temperature tow surveys were conducted to attempt to identify the location of surface and subsurface river water exchanges along the length of the West River at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada (74°55′ N, 109°35′ W). Water temperature data were collected using a calibrated thermistor with an accuracy of ±0.002 °C (resolution <0.00005 °C) along the river during July 2014 in conjunction with stable water isotope sampling to support the thermal data and to determine the extent of surface water mixing from different sources such as precipitation, snowmelt, and surface/subsurface water contributions to the river. Atmospheric conditions were found to be the main contributor to seasonal temperature variance in the river, whereas tributary inflows and residual channel snow also had important thermal effects to river temperatures. Residual channel snow was a sustained source of cold water during much of the 2014 summer season (June–August) and substantially offset downstream warming. The longitudinal temperature profiles indicate notable changes to the thermal state of the river, which are interpreted to be indicative of subsurface and surface water exchange through inputs of relatively cold or warm water. Broadly, surface inflows were found to provide warmer water relative to the West River, and contributed to downstream warming of the river, along with downstream enrichment of δD and δ18O. Subsurface inflows provided cooler water relative to the river, and contributed to downstream depletion of δD and δ18O and downstream cooling of river temperatures. These results demonstrate that localized changes in river temperature, in conjunction with isotopic tracers, can be used to track channel–slope water interactions in Arctic hydrological systems, work previously limited to alpine and temperate settings.  相似文献   

12.
Traditional methods for studying surface water and groundwater interactions have usually been limited to point measurements, such as geochemical sampling and seepage measurement. A new methodology is presented for quantifying groundwater discharge to a river, by using river surface temperature data obtained from airborne thermal infrared remote sensing technology. The Hot Spot Analysis toolkit in ArcGIS was used to calculate the percentage of groundwater discharge to a river relative to the total flow of the river. This methodology was evaluated in the midstream of the Heihe River in the arid and semiarid northwest China. The results show that the percentage of groundwater discharge relative to the total streamflow was as high as 28%, which is in good agreement with the results from previous geochemical studies. The data analysis methodology used in this study is based on the assumption that the river water is fully mixed except in the areas of extremely low flow velocity, which could lead to underestimation of the amount of groundwater discharge. Despite this limitation, this remote sensing‐based approach provides an efficient means of quantifying the surface water and groundwater interactions on a regional scale.  相似文献   

13.
This study presents the groundwater flow and salinity dynamics along a river estuary, the Werribee River in Victoria, Australia, at local and regional scales. Along a single reach, salinity across a transverse section of the channel (~80 m long) with a point bar was monitored using time-lapse electrical resistivity (ER) through a tidal cycle. Groundwater fluxes were concurrently estimated by monitoring groundwater levels and temperature profiles. Regional porewater salinity distribution was mapped using 6-km long longitudinal ER surveys during summer and winter. The time-lapse ER across the channel revealed a static electrically resistive zone on the side of the channel with a pronounced cut bank. Upward groundwater flux and steep vertical temperature gradients with colder temperatures deeper within the sediment suggested a stable zone of fresh groundwater discharge along this cut bank area. Generally, less resistive zones were observed at the shallow portion of the inner meander bank and at the channel center. Subsurface temperatures close to surface water values, vertical head gradients indicating both upward and downward groundwater flux, and higher porewater salinity closer to that of estuary water suggest strong hyporheic circulation in these zones. The longitudinal surveys revealed higher ER values along deep and sinuous segments and low ER values in shallow and straighter reaches in both summer and winter; these patterns are consistent with the local channel-scale observations. This study highlights the interacting effects of channel morphology, broad groundwater–surface water interaction, and hyporheic exchange on porewater salinity dynamics underneath and adjacent to a river estuary.  相似文献   

14.
Exposure from groundwater contamination to aquatic receptors residing in receiving surface water is dependent upon the rate of contaminated groundwater discharge. Characterization of groundwater fluxes is challenging, especially in coastal environments where tidal fluctuations result in transient groundwater flows towards these receptors. This can also be further complicated by the high spatial heterogeneity of subsurface deposits enhanced by anthropogenic influences such as the mixing of natural sediments and backfill materials, the presence of subsurface built structures such as sheet pile walls or even occurrence of other sources of contaminant discharge. In this study, the finite volume point dilution method (FVPDM) was successfully used to characterize highly transient groundwater flows and contaminant mass fluxes within a coastal groundwater flow system influenced by marked tides. FVPDM tests were undertaken continuously for more than 48 h at six groundwater monitoring wells, in order to evaluate groundwater flow dynamics during several tide cycles. Contaminant concentrations were measured simultaneously which allowed calculating contaminant mass fluxes. The study highlighted the importance of the aquifer heterogeneity, with groundwater fluxes ranging from 10−7 to 10−3 m/s. Groundwater flux monitoring enabled a significant refinement of the conceptual site model, including the fact that inversion of groundwater fluxes was not observed at high tide. Results indicated that contaminant mass fluxes were particularly higher at a specific monitoring well, by more than three orders of magnitude, than at other wells of the investigated aquifer. This study provided crucial information for optimizing further field investigations and risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   

15.
The interaction between surface water and groundwater is an important aspect of hydrological processes. Despite its importance, groundwater is not well represented in many land surface models. In this study, a groundwater module with consideration of surface water and groundwater dynamic interactions is incorporated into the distributed biosphere hydrological (DBH) model in the upstream of the Yellow River basin, China. Two numerical experiments are conducted using the DBH model: one with groundwater module active, namely, DBH_GW and the other without, namely, DBH_NGW. Simulations by two experiments are compared with observed river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) variation from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The results show that river discharge during the low flow season that is underestimated in the DBH_NGW has been improved by incorporating the groundwater scheme. As for the TWS, simulation in DBH_GW shows better agreement with GRACE data in terms of interannual and intraseasonal variations and annual changing trend. Furthermore, compared with DBH_GW, TWS simulated in DBH_NGW shows smaller decreases during autumn and smaller increases in spring. These results suggest that consideration of groundwater dynamics enables a more reasonable representation of TWS change by increasing TWS amplitudes and signals and as a consequence, improves river discharge simulation in the low flow seasons when groundwater is a major component in runoff. Additionally, incorporation of groundwater module also leads to wetter soil moisture and higher evapotranspiration, especially in the wet seasons.  相似文献   

16.
In humid upland catchments wetlands are often a prominent feature in the vicinity of streams and have potential implications for runoff generation and nutrient export. Wetland surfaces are often characterized by distinct micro-topography (hollows and hummocks). The effects of such micro-topography on surface–subsurface exchange and runoff generation for a 10 by 20 m synthetic section of a riparian wetland were investigated in a virtual modeling experiment. A reference model with a planar surface was run for comparison. The geostatistically simulated structure of the micro-topography replicates the topography of a peat-forming riparian wetland in a small mountainous catchment in South-East Germany (Lehstenbach). Flow was modeled with the fully-integrated surface–subsurface code HydroGeoSphere. Simulation results showed that the specific structure of the wetland surface resulted in distinct shifts between surface and subsurface flow dominance. Surface depressions filled and started to drain via connected channel networks in a threshold controlled process, when groundwater levels intersected the land surface. These networks expanded and shrunk in a spill and fill mechanism when the shallow water table fluctuated around the mean surface elevation under variable rainfall inputs. The micro-topography efficiently buffered rainfall inputs and produced a hydrograph that was characterized by subsurface flow during most of the year and only temporarily shifted to surface flow dominance (> 80% of total discharge) during intense rainstorms. In contrast the hydrograph in the planar reference model was much “flashier” and more controlled by surface runoff. A non-linear, hysteretic relationship between groundwater level and discharge observed at the study site was reproduced with the micro-topography model. Hysteresis was also observed in the relationship between surface water storage and discharge, but over a relatively narrow range of surface water storage values. Therefore it was concluded that surface water storage was a better predictor for the occurrence of surface runoff than groundwater levels.  相似文献   

17.
To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Groundwater is not a sustainable resource, unless abstraction is balanced by recharge. Identifying the sources of recharge in a groundwater basin is critical for sustainable groundwater management. We studied the importance of river water recharge to groundwater in the south‐eastern San Joaquin Valley (24,000 km2, population 4 million). We combined dissolved noble gas concentrations, stable isotopes, tritium, and carbon‐14 analyses to analyse the sources, mechanisms, and timescales of groundwater recharge. Area‐representative groundwater sampling and numerical model input data enabled a stable isotope mass balance and quantitative estimates of river and local recharge. River recharge, identified by a lighter stable isotope signature, represents 47 ± 4% of modern groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley (recharged after 1950) but only 26 ± 4% of premodern groundwater (recharged before 1950). This implies that the importance of river water recharge in the San Joaquin valley has nearly doubled and is likely the result of a 40% increase in total recharge, caused by river water irrigation return flows and increased stream depletion and river recharge due to groundwater pumping. Compared with the large and long‐duration capacity for water storage in the subsurface, storage of water in rivers is limited in time and volume, as evidenced by cold river recharge temperatures resulting from fast infiltration and recharge. Groundwater banking of seasonal surface water flows and expansion of managed aquifer recharge practices therefore appear to be a natural and promising method for increasing the resilience of the San Joaquin Valley water supply system.  相似文献   

19.
Groundwater discharge flux into rivers (riverine groundwater discharge or RGD) is essential information for the conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems and resources. One way to estimate area-integrated groundwater discharge into surface water bodies is to measure the concentration of a groundwater tracer within the water body. We assessed groundwater discharge using 222Rn, a tracer common in many surface water studies, through field measurements, surface water 222Rn mass balance model, and groundwater flow simulation, for the seldom studied but ubiquitous setting of a flooding river corridor. The investigation was conducted at the dam-regulated Lower Colorado River (LCR) in Austin, Texas, USA. We found that 222Rn in both the river water and groundwater in the river bank changed synchronously over a 12-hour flood cycle. A 222Rn mass balance model allowed for estimation of groundwater discharge into a 500-m long reach of the LCR over the flood. The groundwater discharge ranged between negative values (indicating recharge) to 1570 m3/h; groundwater discharge from groundwater flow simulations corroborated these estimates. However, for the dynamic groundwater discharge estimated by the 222Rn box model, assuming whether the groundwater 222Rn endmember was constant or dynamic led to notably different results. The resultant groundwater discharge estimates are also highly sensitive to river 222Rn values. We thus recommend that when using this approach to accurately characterize dynamic groundwater discharge, the 222Rn in near-stream groundwater should be monitored at the same frequency as river 222Rn. If this is not possible, the 222Rn method can still provide reasonable but approximate groundwater discharge given background information on surface water-groundwater exchange time scales.  相似文献   

20.
Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold‐water and oxygen‐demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air‐water regression model (r2: 0·903–0·947). The predictions improved in all instances (r2: 0·927–0·964) by a non‐linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r2: 0·933–0·969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un‐shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non‐linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4–5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070‐2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1·6–3·0 °C during winter and summer and 4·4–6·0 °C during spring in un‐shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater‐fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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