Epistemological dimensions of the water–energy–food nexus approach: reply to discussions of “Challenges in operationalizing the water–energy–food nexus”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Varis and Keskinen, and Nauditt, for their constructive contributions. We endorse their key comments, further referring to recent literature and events, including the UN 2018 High Level Political Forum on sustainable development. Here, we elaborate on the epistemological perspective of the water–energy–food nexus conceptualization, assessment, discourse and operationalization.     

Discussion of “Challenges in operationalizing the water–energy–food nexus”*

ABSTRACT

We greatly enjoyed reading the paper by Liu et al., which is both timely and rich in insight, as it discusses the challenges in operationalizing the water–energy–food security (WEF) nexus. The nexus approach is gaining increasing attention, both in research and in policy documents, as reflected in the number and content of published documents in the past years and highlighted by the authors.     

Comparative investigation on the decreased runoff between the water source and destination regions in the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Investigation on decreased runoff and driving forces in the water source and water destination catchments is vital to the water resources protection and water supply security assurance. Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin (DRB) and Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB) are the water source and water destination regions for the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MSNWDP) in China. Variations in runoff and driving forces behind these variations during 1960–2005 in the DRB and the MRB were comparatively analyzed and investigated by the climate elasticity method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results showed that the runoff change process was diagnosed as the same three sub-periods (1960–1979, 1980–1989, and 1990–2005) by the cumulative anomaly analysis. The variations in the runoff exhibited large fluctuations with an overall decreasing trend of ?2.5 mm/year in the DRB and ?1.1 mm/year in the MRB. The variations in average annual runoff among the three sub-periods had significant differences in magnitude and direction. The runoff in the DRB increased by 81.6 mm during 1980–1989, and decreased by 67.1 mm during 1990–2005. However, the decreased runoff in the MRB during 1980–1989 and 1990–2005 were 37.3 and 31.7 mm, respectively. The specific spatio-temporal differences of climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and catchment characteristics jointly resulted in the differences of the runoff change. The climate elasticity method revealed that the leading factors to runoff changes in the three sub-periods had significant differences. The climate factors were the leading factors before 1990, however, the human activities became more intensive to be the leading factors after 1999. The relative contributions of climate factors and catchment characteristics to runoff change varied from (88.5%, 8.2%) during 1980–1989 to (30.9%, 73.9%) during 1990–2005 in the DRB. However, in the MRB, the relative contributions were from (51.0%, 48.2%) during 1980–1989 to (?8.0%, 110.0%) during 1990–2005. An effective way to reduce risk is to take the dynamic or elastic water resources management and the differentiated protection measures. In addition, green water management, the water demand management and saving water both in the water source regions and in the water destination regions of the MSNWDP are recommended and persistently advocated to reduce water consumption.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Groundwater–surface water interactions in a river estuary and the importance of geomorphology: Insights from hydraulic,thermal and geophysical observations

This study presents the groundwater flow and salinity dynamics along a river estuary, the Werribee River in Victoria, Australia, at local and regional scales. Along a single reach, salinity across a transverse section of the channel (~80 m long) with a point bar was monitored using time-lapse electrical resistivity (ER) through a tidal cycle. Groundwater fluxes were concurrently estimated by monitoring groundwater levels and temperature profiles. Regional porewater salinity distribution was mapped using 6-km long longitudinal ER surveys during summer and winter. The time-lapse ER across the channel revealed a static electrically resistive zone on the side of the channel with a pronounced cut bank. Upward groundwater flux and steep vertical temperature gradients with colder temperatures deeper within the sediment suggested a stable zone of fresh groundwater discharge along this cut bank area. Generally, less resistive zones were observed at the shallow portion of the inner meander bank and at the channel center. Subsurface temperatures close to surface water values, vertical head gradients indicating both upward and downward groundwater flux, and higher porewater salinity closer to that of estuary water suggest strong hyporheic circulation in these zones. The longitudinal surveys revealed higher ER values along deep and sinuous segments and low ER values in shallow and straighter reaches in both summer and winter; these patterns are consistent with the local channel-scale observations. This study highlights the interacting effects of channel morphology, broad groundwater–surface water interaction, and hyporheic exchange on porewater salinity dynamics underneath and adjacent to a river estuary.     

The space-time relationships between volcanic associations of different alkalinities: The Belogolovskii massif in Kamchatka’s Sredinnyi Range. Part 1. The geology,mineralogy, and petrology of volcanic rocks

We proposed a geological and petrologic model for the generation of the Belogolovskii Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene volcanic massif. We identified two petrochemical series of rocks with varying alkalinities, viz., normal and moderate. The evolution of volcanic products and the mineralogic composition of rocks of varying alkalinities provide evidence that the sources of parent magmas are spatially independent and reside at different depths. Crystallization differentiation is the leading process that is responsible for the generation of the initial melts that give rise to the range of rocks within a series. The evolution of the alkaline basaltic magma occurred stepwise, producing autonomous daughter melts with the following compositions: trachybasalt-trachyandesite-trachyte-trachyrhyolite and comendite. These melts were localized in inter-mediate magma chambers at different depths.     

Erratum to Identification of tsunami-induced deposits using numerical modeling and rock magnetism techniques: A study case of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami in Algarve,Portugal: [Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors Volume 182, Issues 3–4, Pages 187–198 (October 2010)]

Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS, SIRM) and grain size (χ_ARM, ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of ～7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.     

Assessment of sediment yield estimations for large watershed areas: a case study for the Seyhan,Demirköprü and Hirfanlı reservoirs in Turkey

Abstract

Analyses of data from reservoir surveys and sediment rating curves are compared to predict sediment yield in three large reservoir watershed areas in Turkey. Sediment yield data were derived from reservoir sedimentation rates and suspended sediment measurements at gauging stations. The survey data were analysed to provide the volume estimates of sediment, the time-averaged sediment deposition rates, the long-term average annual loss rates in the reservoir storage capacity, and the long-term sediment yield of the corresponding watershed areas. Four regression methods, including linear and nonlinear cases, were applied to rating curves obtained from gauging stations. Application of the efficiency test to a power function form of a rating curve with nonlinear regression yielded the highest efficiency values. Based on the analysis of the sediment rating curves, sediment load fluxes were calculated by using average daily discharge data at each gauging station. Comparison of these two sediment yield values for each reservoir showed that the sediment yields from the suspended sediment measurements, SY_GS, are 0.99 to 3.54 times less than those obtained from the reservoir surveys, SY_RS. The results from the reservoir surveys indicate that all three reservoirs investigated have lost significant storage capacity due to high sedimentation rates.     

Explosive lava–water interactions I: architecture and emplacement chronology of volcanic rootless cone groups in the 1783–1784 Laki lava flow, Iceland

To determine the relationships between rootless cone emplacement mechanisms, morphology, and spatial distribution, we mapped the Hnúta and Hrossatungur groups of the 1783–1784 Laki lava flow in Iceland. We based our facies maps on Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements, photogeological interpretations, and supporting field observations. The study area covers 2.77 km² and includes 2216 explosion sites. To establish the timing of rootless cone formation we incorporated tephrochronological constraints from eighty-eight stratigraphic sections and determined that the Hnúta and Hrossatungur groups are composite structures formed by the emplacement of six geographically and chronologically discrete domains. Rootless eruptions initiated in domain 1 on the first day of the Laki eruption (June 8, 1783) and lasted 1–2 days. The second episode of rootless activity began in domain 2 on June 11 and lasted 1–3 days. The four domains of the Hrossatungur group dominantly formed after June 14 and exhibit a complex emplacement sequence that reflects interactions between the Laki lava, contemporaneously emplaced rootless cones, and an existing topographic ridge. In the study area, we identify three distinct rootless cone archetypes (i.e., recurring morphological forms) that are related to tube-, channel-, and broad sheet lobe-fed eruptions. We assert that emplacement of lava above compressible substrates (e.g., unconsolidated sediments) may trigger rootless eruptions by causing subsidence-induced flexure and failure of the basal crust, thereby allowing molten lava (fuel) to come into direct contact with groundwater (coolant) and initiating analogs to explosive molten fuel–coolant interactions (MFCIs).     

“Great East Siberian” earthquake of February 1, 1725 (M = 8.2): Revision of the main parameters in the light of additional data and modern requirements

The earthquake of February 1 (January 21 in the Julian Calendar), 1725 was for a long time considered not only the earliest precisely dated historical seismic event in eastern Siberia, but also the most powerful earthquake for the entire period of recorded seismic events in the region: M = 8.2 (Novyi katalog…, 1977). The epicenter location (Stanovoy Upland) and the magnitude of the event were assessed on the basis of very scanty historical data, as well as using paleoseismogeological information. The February 1, 1725 event received the name “The Great East Siberian” earthquake and served for decades as decisive evidence for the assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic zoning of the northeastern flank of the Baikal rift zone. However, the solution of the focal parameters in the (Novyi katalog…, 1977) has caused serious doubts. In this paper a newly elaborated version is proposed that is based on a detailed reevaluation of the initially known macroseismic information, as well as additional historical data that previously had not come to the attention of seismologists. As the result, a different solution of the focal parameters (51.8° N; 113.0° E, eastern Transbaikalia) and a significantly lower magnitude (M = 6.0) compared with the parameters given in (Novyi katalog…, 1977) were obtained. The presented solution makes us more attentive to the estimates of seismic hazard in east Transbaikalia based on historical data, as well as to the historical data themselves.     

Comment on “Luminescence chronology of the Sankosh river terraces in the Assam–Buthan foothills of the Himalayas: Implications to climate and tectonics” by Quaternary Geochronology 72, 101364

In a study of which the main objective was to assess the impact of climate change and tectonics on the formation of river terraces along the Sankosh River, the eastern foreland of the Himalayas, the authors obtained geochrono-logical data using luminescence technique. Four strath river terraces (T4–T1) were distinguished within the valley bottom, and alluvial sediments from three terraces (T4, T2 and T1) were dated to the age range from 143 to 14 ka. The alluvial mantels of river terraces were then linked to the scheme of glacial-interglacial cycle. The paper, however, suffers from few inconsistent and missing information, and the assessment on the landscape evolution of the river valley is incomprehensive. The authors relied on feldspars and therefore the IRSL method was used, but “OSL ages” are discussed at the end. They state that (i) tectonics creates space for sediment accommodation and (ii) the luminescence ages flank deposition and incision phases. Despite the fact that the statements are questionable, the ways these happen are not elucidated within the paper. Due to the lack of geochronological data for T3 terrace, its formation is very enigmatic. It is even more mysterious in the light of the data for the other terraces, but the authors made no attempt to explain this riddle. However, that certain inability of reconstructing the history of T3 would shed a shadow on the robustness of the ages obtained.     

Seismicity in the block mountains between Halle and Leipzig,Central Germany: centroid moment tensors,ground motion simulation,and felt intensities of two <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≈ 3 earthquakes in 2015 and 2017

On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M_W =?2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstädt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I₀ = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M_W =?3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I₀ = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M_W ≈?5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.     

Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves and Down-Hole Tests in the Archeological “Palatine Hill” Area (Rome,Italy): Evaluation and Influence of 2D Effects on the Shear Wave Velocity

A joint analysis of down-hole (DH) and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) measurements offers a complete evaluation of shear wave velocity profiles, especially for sites where a strong lateral variability is expected, such as archeological sites. In this complex stratigraphic setting, the high “subsoil anisotropy” (i.e., sharp lithological changes due to the presence of anthropogenic backfill deposits and/or buried man-made structures) implies a different role for DH and MASW tests. This paper discusses some results of a broad experimental program conducted on the Palatine Hill, one of the most ancient areas of the city of Rome (Italy). The experiments were part of a project on seismic microzoning and consisted of 20 MASW and 11 DH tests. The main objective of this study was to examine the difficulties related to the interpretation of the DH and MASW tests and the reliability limits inherent in the application of the noninvasive method in complex stratigraphic settings. As is well known, DH tests provide good determinations of shear wave velocities (Vs) for different lithologies and man-made materials, whereas MASW tests provide average values for the subsoil volume investigated. The data obtained from each method with blind tests were compared and were correlated to site-specific subsurface conditions, including lateral variability. Differences between punctual (DH) and global (MASW) Vs measurements are discussed, quantifying the errors by synthetic comparison and by site response analyses. This study demonstrates that, for archeological sites, V_S profiles obtained from the DH and MASW methods differ by more than 15 %. However, the local site effect showed comparable results in terms of natural frequencies, whereas the resolution of the inverted shear wave velocity was influenced by the fundamental mode of propagation.     

Reply to the Comment by V.A. Saltykov on the Paper “The Relationship between Multifractal and Entropy Properties of Seismic Noise in Kamchatka and Irregularity of the Earth’s Rotation” by A.A. Lyubushin,G.N. Kopylova,and Yu.K. Serafimova

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth -     

Moving socio-hydrologic modelling forward: unpacking hidden assumptions,values and model structure by engaging with stakeholders: reply to “What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology?”*

The arguments presented in Melsen et al. advance ideas in the “Panta Rhei” decade (2013–2022) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which focuses on change in hydrology and society. While we reiterate that, despite acknowledged shortcomings, the enterprise of integrating societal feedbacks into hydrological models is beneficial in prediction and adaptive management, we also agree with the sentiments of the authors. In response, we offer concrete steps the socio-hydrologic community can take to educate modellers to become aware about unconscious biases embedded in model structure and clearly communicate assumptions. We stress the need for “knowledge brokers” that can help modellers work with stakeholders, instead of doing everything themselves. We also caution, however, against the danger of over-reaching. Young scholars already pay a big price by having to master both the natural and social sciences. As coupled human–water problems increase in societal importance, along with calls for more holistic thinking, we also need to promote an academic culture that rewards reaching across the aisle.     

Simulation of surface runoff and sediment yield using the water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model: a study in Kaneli watershed,Himalaya, India / Simulation de ruissellement de surface et d'érosion à l'aide du modèle WEPP: cas du bassin versant de Kaneli,Himalaya, Inde

Abstract

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was calibrated and evaluated for estimation of runoff and sediment yield in the data-scarce conditions of the Indian Himalaya. The inputs derived from remote sensing and geographic information system technologies were combined in the WEPP modelling system to simulate surface runoff and sediment yield from the hilly Kaneli watershed. The model parameters were calibrated using measured data on runoff volumes and sediment yield. The calibrated model was validated by producing the monthly runoff and sediment yield simulations and comparing them with data that were not used in calibration. The model was also used to make surface runoff and sediment yield simulations for each of the individual watershed elements, comprising 18 hillslopes and seven channels, and the detailed monthly results for each are presented. Although, no field data on hillslope runoff and sediment yield are currently available for the validation of distributed results produced by the model, the present investigation has demonstrated clearly the applicability of the WEPP model in predicting hydrological variables in a data-scarce situation.