A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.     

2021年贵州省粮油作物生长季 农业气候评价

为了评估2021粮油作物生长季内气象条件对农业生产的影响,根据贵州84个观测站的气温、降水、日照3个气象要素的变化特点,结合作物生物学特性对气象的要求,并与历史同期气象条件进行对比,结论为：（1）夏收粮油农业气象条件利弊相当,属于正常气候年景：生长季内光热条件适宜;出苗期受秋绵雨影响,苗情偏弱;关键生育期前期,光温水匹配良好,利于产量形成,后期受两个旬的低温阴雨寡照天气影响,不利于灌浆,随后天气转好,作物恢复生长,气象条件有利于收获晾晒。（2）秋粮作物农业气象条件利大于弊,属于较好气候年景：生长季内光温水匹配良好,作物生长后期气象条件优于生长前期;营养生长期受2次低温阴雨寡照天气影响,苗情略偏弱,随后天气转好,生殖生长期光温充足,夏旱偏轻发生,利于秋粮作物生长发育和单产提升。     

Studying the wintering conditions of winter crops from the satellite and ground-based observations (A case study for the Belgorod oblast)

The method is proposed for assessing the wintering conditions of winter crops with the accuracy to separate sown areas based on the joint use of the data of remote sensing and ground-based observations. The dependence is revealed between snow depth and snow albedo in the red band (MOD09GQ data). Geoinformation mapping of wintering conditions of winter crops cultivated in the Belgorod oblast is carried out for the winter period of 2012/2013.     

On the problem of adequate agroclimatic support of the Russian economy under climate change conditions

Problems of adapting available methods, forms, and approaches to agroclimatic support of the economy under climate change conditions are under consideration. Development and operation of an automated reference-information system (ARIS) of agricultural resources, assessment of the environmental bioclimatic potential, and preparation of agroclimatic Atlases (with a reference to hazardous agroclimatic events) are dealt with. The process of adaptation includes development of such system of agroclimatic support of the economy, which would adequately reflect the actual state of agroclimatic resources, bioclimatic potential of the environment, hazardous agroclimatic events, etc., at any prescribed moment, at any point. The problem is supposed to be solved with a mechanism of agricultural monitoring as one of the methods of agroclimatic support of the economy.     

Estimating the level of territory vulnerability and climate-related risk of significant grain crop failure in grain-producing regions of Russia

A term ofclimate-related risk ofcrop losses due to adverse hydrometeorological conditions is introduced. The level of territory vulnerability in terms ofcrop production is defined by the relationship between the yield of a given crop and the bioclimatic potential of a territory. The estimates of vulnerability and crop failure risks for some grain crops are presented for the period of 1994–2013. Average for Russia crop failure risk for spring and winter wheat computed taking into account the cultivated areas is 12.5 and 10.6%, respectively. It is revealed that the most parts of the Southern and Volga federal districts are located in the high-risk zone. Areas ofrelatively low risks in terms ofcrop failure for spring and winter wheat are the Siberian and Central federal districts.     

The envivonment of the Russian Federation in 2006-2015: State and pollution dynamics

The present research is based on the annual Reviews of Environmental Conditions and Pollution in the Russian Federation and Yearbooks of Environmental Pollution in the Russian Federation for the period of 2006-2015. The parameters and estimates of abiotic environmental component (air, surface water, and soil) and radiation conditions are generalized from the data of the national observation system of environmental conditions (a base of the national system of environmental pollution monitoring in the Russian Federation) as well as from the data of local environmental observation systems. The results of the analysis of observational data and the conclusion on the conservation of high levels of air pollution in the cities and surface water pollution in many water bodies (including the assessment of priority of existing problems) are an important element of the informational support of state control of the sources of pollutant emissions (discharges) to the environment. The given information is also used for the comprehensive assessment of the influence of unfavorable environmental factors on the population health and terrestrial and water ecosystems. Besides, information on the dynamics and actual levels of environmental pollution allows assessing the efficiency of nature protection measures taking into account the observed trends and dynamics of variations.     

Research problems of formation and estimation of water resources and water availability changes of the Russian Federation

New data on water resources of the Russian Federation and their long-term dynamics are given. The distribution of water resources according to federal districts is considered. Results of analysis of modern changes of river run-off intra-year distribution under the influence of climatic factors are represented. The dynamics of water use for different economic needs is given. The evaluation of water resources and water availability changes in perspective is executed.     

Current and expected volumes of local water supplies in the Central Federal Okrug of the Russian Federation

Average multiyear data on local water resources in all regions of the Central Federal Okrug of the Russian Federation in the period from 1930 to 2005 and their temporal variability are presented. The method of periodicities was applied for forecasting of the local water supplies of the considered territory out to 5–10 years. It was revealed that local water resources of the Central Federal Okrug are expected to be below the climatology norm by 5–6% in 2006–2010 and close to the norm in 2011-2015, while throughout the entire period (2006–2015) they will decrease by 4%.     

Post-Kyoto energy strategy of the Russian Federation,outlooks and prerequisites of the Kyoto mechanisms implementation in the country

Energy sector emissions from Russia have declined by about 33% from 1990 levels. We estimate that some 60–70% of the reduction is due to economic decline, and about 8–12% of it is due to reforms in the energy sector; the remainder being due to the wider use of natural gas and structural changes in the economy. Vigorous institutional and technological measures to promote energy efficiency could lead to savings of over 100 million t.c.e. per year by 2010, and keep CO₂ emissions fairly close to current levels over the decade. In our view, international emissions trading should not lead to global emissions growth, but should facilitate the best energy saving and efficiency. Consequently, we propose that the available assigned amount should be divided into two components. That part arising from ‘type 1’ reductions, produced by special projects and measures relating to GHG reduction taken since 1990, should be freely traded; whereas the remaining ‘type 2’ surplus, without a clear link to real emission reduction activity, should only be traded if the revenues are recycled into special projects resulting in emissions reduction equal to or more than the amount of emissions sold.     

Post-Kyoto energy strategy of the Russian Federation,outlooks and prerequisites of the Kyoto mechanisms implementation in the country

Abstract

Energy sector emissions from Russia have declined by about 33% from 1990 levels. We estimate that some 60–70% of the reduction is due to economic decline, and about 8–12% of it is due to reforms in the energy sector; the remainder being due to the wider use of natural gas and structural changes in the economy. Vigorous institutional and technological measures to promote energy efficiency could lead to savings of over 100 million t.c.e. per year by 2010, and keep CO₂ emissions fairly close to current levels over the decade. In our view, international emissions trading should not lead to global emissions growth, but should facilitate the best energy saving and efficiency. Consequently, we propose that the available assigned amount should be divided into two components. That part arising from ‘type 1’ reductions, produced by special projects and measures relating to GHG reduction taken since 1990, should be freely traded; whereas the remaining ‘type 2’ surplus, without a clear link to real emission reduction activity, should only be traded if the revenues are recycled into special projects resulting in emissions reduction equal to or more than the amount of emissions sold.     

Forecasting environmental contamination development in the coastal and water area of the Russian far east under the effect of the radiation factor and industrial anthropogenic load under conditions of catastrophes

Studies of seasonal variability (including the winter season) of the main hydrodynamic, sedimentation, physicochemical and other characteristics of the Chazhma Bay of the Sea of Japan, in the zone of the atomic submarine K-431 nuclear accident of 1985 that influence the radioecological state of the environment was carried out. The substance fluxes required for estimating radionuclide balance are defined based on the expedition survey of radioactivity of bottom sediments, sea water, and suspension in the epicenter of the accident and over the water area of the bay together with hydrophysical, sedimentation, and meteorological observations. Modern trace methods and 3D prognostic modeling of interaction of natural and anthropogenic processes of evolution of radioactive contamination of the bottom sediments in the zone of the atomic submarine accident are used; a new approach to estimating the maximum contamination of the marine environment is proposed.     

重庆地区大春作物长势监测及产量预测（NOAA／AVHRR资料）

利用ＮＯＡＡ卫星绿度数字图像资料,选用Ｇ１和Ｇ３模式,根据大春生长期间的绿度值变化情况,进行大春作物长势监测,并以大春作物关键生育阶段的累积绿工值为预报因子,建立重庆市大春及中稻总产模式。该模式经１９９５年试报应用及历史代验,效果良好。     

重庆地区大春作物长势监测及产量预测(NOAA/AVHRR资料)

利用NOAA卫星绿度数字图像资料,选用G1和G3模式,根据大春生长期间的绿度值变化情况,进行大春作物长势监测,并以大春作物关键生育阶段(5月中旬～7月下旬)的累积绿度值为预报因子,建立重庆市大春及中稻总产模式.该模式经1995年试报应用及历史代验,效果良好.     

2003年黑龙江省主要灾害性天气及其对作物生长发育和粮食产量的影响

利用40年气温、降水资料和历史上千旱、低温严重的年份与2003年进行对比分析．评估黑龙江省2003年发生的严重灾害的分布范同,灾害程度,及其对主要粮食作物生长发育和产量的影响。得出2003年的灾害是30年未遇的全省性严重灾害年,各种灾害对各种作物都产生了不同程度的影响,受害最重的作物是小麦。     

共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测

基于中国历次人口和经济普查及逐年统计年鉴,率定柯布道格拉斯（Cobb-Douglas）经济预测模型的参数,依据共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架情景,构建2020—2100年中国31个省（区、市）经济变化格点（0.5°×0.5°）数据库。未来中国经济呈现如下特点：(1)沿可持续路径（SSP1）和不均衡路径（SSP4),GDP将呈现先增后降趋势,峰值出现在2070—2080年;沿中间路径（SSP2）和化石燃料为主的发展路径（SSP5),GDP则呈现持续增长趋势;区域竞争路径（SSP3）下,2050年以后GDP增长处于停滞状态。(2)无论采用何种路径,2020年前GDP仍旧保持6.0%左右的增速,随后增速均低于5.0%并出现放缓或停滞,甚至负增长态势。(3)社会经济发展政策对中国分省经济增长产生直接影响。2020年代SSP1~SSP5路径下江苏、广东和山东省GDP总量位列前三;2090年代,SSP1和SSP5路径下广东、山东和江苏省GDP总量依旧位列前三;SSP2路径下,浙江位列第二;SSP3路径下,河南跻身前三;SSP4路径下,排名前三省份为广东、江苏和浙江省。(4) 2020年代SSP1、SSP2和SSP5路径下,山东、浙江等省GDP增速超过6.0%,SSP3和SSP4路径下仅广东和浙江省GDP增速可维持5.0%左右,个别省还出现负增长;2090年代各省GDP增速均降至不足1.0%。     

基于共享社会经济路径的中国经济发展趋势及其影响要素分析

基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴,采用柯布?道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型,分析了共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架下中国“全面二孩”政策后2010—2100年经济发展趋势,并解析了劳动投入量、资本投入量和全要素生产率对经济发展的贡献率。研究发现：(1)不同的社会经济发展政策下,21世纪中国经济均呈增加趋势,GDP增速在2030年前基本维持在6%上下,但2030—2060年代迅速下降,2070年代起SSP1和SSP4路径下增幅低于0.5%,SSP2、SSP3和SSP5路径下增幅保持在0.5%~1.5%。(2)影响经济发展的三要素中,劳动投入量在SSP3路径下先减后增,于2060年代达到谷值;在其他路径下均先增后减,于2020年代达到峰值。资本投入量在SSP1路径下持续增加,2080年代起趋于平缓;其他路径下均呈持续增加趋势,但在SSP4路径下,在2060和2070年代有所下降。全要素生产率在所有路径下均呈增加趋势。(3)改革开放以来,资本投入量是影响我国经济增长最主要的因素。未来,SSP1和SSP2路径下,全要素生产率逐渐成为经济发展的主导因素;而SSP5路径下,资本投入量仍是影响经济发展的主要因素。     

Observation of new particle formation and growth under cloudy conditions at Gosan Climate Observatory,Korea

Under cloudy conditions at the Gosan Climate Observatory (GCO), Korea, we observed distinct new particle formation and growth (NPF) events from simultaneous co-located measurements of aerosol and cloud profiles, cloud cover, shortwave radiation, and the number concentration and size distribution of aerosols. The high frequency of NPF was observed at GCO under decreased downwelling solar radiation caused by clouds. Although we observed about 15 and 40 % decreases in downwelling surface shortwave radiations, in the presence of thick mid-level (low-level) clouds, on January 28 and 30, 2012, respectively, distinct NPFs with a growth rate of 3.3 (3.9) nm h^?1 were observed. We examined a 4-year series (May 2008 to April 2012) of continuous measurements of the size distribution of aerosol numbers and visually observed cloud cover. We found that approximately 13 % (i.e., 35 days out of 280 days) of total NPF events were observed under cloud-free conditions (i.e., cloud cover of 0/10). About 20 % (i.e., 57 days out of 280 days) of total NPF events occurred under mostly overcast conditions (i.e., cloud cover of 9/10–10/10). Although NPF events occurring under cloudy conditions were also found elsewhere, the frequency of NPF occurring at GCO seems much higher. The average value of relative humidity for the strong-NPF event days is lower than that of the weak and non-NPF event days for all cloud categories. No significant difference in the condensation sink was found among strong-, weak-, and non-NPF days, but the condensation sink showed a slight decreasing tendency with increasing cloudiness. Further investigations on precursor gases and preexisting aerosols under cloudy conditions are needed.     

The application of tree-rings and stable isotopes for reconstructions of climate conditions in the Russian Altai

We present new tree-ring width, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁸O chronologies from the Koksu site (49°N, 86° E, 2,200 m asl), situated in the Russian Altai. A strong temperature signal is recorded in the tree-ring width (June-July) and stable isotope (July-August) chronologies, a July precipitation signal captured by the stable isotope data. To investigate the nature of common climatic patterns, our new chronologies are compared with previously published tree-ring and stable isotope data from other sites in the Altai region. The temperature signal preserved in the conifer trees is strongly expressed at local and regional scales for all studied sites, resulting in even stronger temperature and precipitation signals in combined average chronologies compared to separate chronologies. This enables the reconstruction of June-July and July-August temperatures for the last 200 years using tree-ring and stable carbon isotopes. A July precipitation reconstruction based on oxygen isotopic variability recorded in tree-rings can potentially improve the understanding of hydrological changes and the occurrence of extreme events in the Russian Altai.