Physical properties and orbital stability of the Trojan asteroids

All the Trojan asteroids orbit about the Sun at roughly the same heliocentric distance as Jupiter. Differences in the observed visible reflection spectra range from neutral to red, with no ultra-red objects found so far. Given that the Trojan asteroids are collisionally evolved, a certain degree of variability is expected. Additionally, cosmic radiation and sublimation are important factors in modifying icy surfaces even at those large heliocentric distances. We search for correlations between physical and dynamical properties, we explore relationships between the following four quantities; the normalised visible reflectivity indexes (S^′), the absolute magnitudes, the observed albedos and the orbital stability of the Trojans. We present here visible spectroscopic spectra of 25 Trojans. This new data increase by a factor of about 5 the size of the sample of visible spectra of Jupiter Trojans on unstable orbits. The observations were carried out at the ESO-NTT telescope (3.5 m) at La Silla, Chile, the ING-WHT (4.2 m) and NOT (2.5 m) at Roque de los Muchachos observatory, La Palma, Spain. We have found a correlation between the size distribution and the orbital stability. The absolute-magnitude distribution of the Trojans in stable orbits is found to be bimodal, while the one of the unstable orbits is unimodal, with a slope similar to that of the small stable Trojans. This supports the hypothesis that the unstable objects are mainly byproducts of physical collisions. The values of S^′ of both the stable and the unstable Trojans are uniformly distributed over a wide range, from 0%/1000 Å to about 15%/1000 Å. The values for the stable Trojans tend to be slightly redder than the unstable ones, but no significant statistical difference is found.     

Evolution of NEO rotation rates due to close encounters with Earth and Venus

In this paper we study the statistical effect of planetary flybys on the rotation rates and states of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Our approach combines numerical and analytical methods within a Monte Carlo model that simulates the evolution of the NEO spin rates. We take as input for the simulation a source distribution of spin states and evolve it to find their steady state distribution. In performing this evolution we track the changes in the spin rate and state distribution for the different components of the NEO population. We show that the cumulative effect of planetary encounters is to spin up the overall population of NEOs. This spin up effect holds on average only, and particular members of the population may experience an overall decrease in rotation rate. This effect is clearly seen across all components of the NEO population and is significant both statistically and physically. For initially slow rotators the spin up effect is strong, lowering the mean rotation period by 32%. For faster rotating populations the effect is less, lowering the spin period by 15% for the intermediate case, 6% for fast rotating rubble piles, and 8% for fast rotating monoliths. Physically, the spin up effect pushes 1% of the fast rotating rubble-pile NEOs over the disruption limit, while 6% of these bodies experience a sub-disruption event that could modify their physical structure. For monolithic NEOs, the spin up effect is self-limiting, reaching a minimum spin period of 1.1 hr, with a strong cut-off between 2-3 hr. This has two implications. First, it may not be necessary to invoke the rubble-pile hypothesis to recover a cut-off in spin period. Second, it shows that planetary flybys cannot account for the extremely rapid rotation rates of some small NEOs. We also tested a different balance between the effects of Earth and Venus by treating the Aten sub-class of asteroids separately. Due to increased interactions with the planets, the spin up effect is more pronounced (10%) and disruptions increase by a factor of three. The slow rotation tails of the spin distributions are increased to longer periods, in general, with rotation periods of over 100 hr occurring for a few tenths of a percent for some component populations. Thus, this mechanism may account for some of the noted excess in slow rotators among the NEOs. Planetary flybys also cause NEOs to enter a tumbling state, with approximately 0.5% of the population being placed into a long-axis rotation mode. Finally, based on the evolution of spin states of different components of the NEO population, we compared the evolved states with the measured distribution of NEOs to estimate the relative populations of these components that comprise the NEOs.     

Orbital and mission planning constraints for the deflection of NEOs impacting on Earth

This paper is the third in a series. Paper 1 presented the results of numerical modeling of deflections of NEOs in route of collision with the Earth. The model was applied to a variety of dynamical cases including both asteroidal and cometary NEOs. Paper 2 introduced the concept of “distributed deflection,” i.e., the possibility to provide the ΔV necessary to deflect an object with a succession of maneuvers each of which would have been insufficient per se to obtain the desired result. In both papers no assumptions were made on the physical composition and structure of the NEO, nor on the details of the possible deflection maneuvers from the point of view of mission analysis. Moreover, ΔV-plots were computed assuming only along-track impulses (both in the positive and negative directions), because it is easy to demonstrate that in general this is energetically the most favorable configuration. Also in the present paper no assumptions were made on the physical composition and structure of the NEO, even if order of magnitude considerations are made on the physical feasibility of a deflection, in terms of the internal strength of the NEO. We present here the results of an investigation on the mission requirements necessary to deflect an object (or contribute to a succession of deflecting maneuvers) in terms of accessibility of the spacecraft terminal orbit from Earth with the current launchers.     

Fragmentation model dependence of collision cascades

Mass depletion of bodies through successive collisional disruptions (i.e., collision cascade) is one of the most important processes in the studies of the asteroids belt, the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt, debris disks, and planetary formation. The collisional disruption is divided into two types, i.e., catastrophic disruption and cratering. Although some studies of the collision cascades neglected the effect of cratering, it is unclear which type of disruption makes a dominant contribution to the collision cascades. In the present study, we construct a simple outcome model describing both catastrophic disruption and cratering, which has some parameters characterizing the total ejecta mass, the mass of the largest fragment, and the power-law exponent of the size distribution of fragments. Using this simple outcome model with parameters, we examine the model dependence of the mass depletion time in collision cascades for neglect of coalescence of colliding bodies due to high collisional velocities. We find the cratering collisions are much more effective in collision cascades than collisions with catastrophic disruption in a wide region of the model parameters. It is also found that the mass depletion time in collision cascades is mainly governed by the total ejecta mass and almost insensitive to the mass of the largest fragment and the power-law exponent of fragments for a realistic parameter region. The total ejecta mass is usually determined by the ratio of the impact energy divided by the target mass (i.e. Q-value) to its threshold value for catastrophic disruption, as well as in our simple model. We derive a mass depletion time in collision cascades, which is determined by of the high-mass end of collision cascades. The mass depletion time derived with our model would be applicable to debris disks and planetary formation.     

A dynamical model with a new inversion technique applied to observations of Comet C/2000 WM1 (LINEAR)

Three continuum images of Comet C/2000 WM₁ (LINEAR) obtained on Nov 10, Nov 19, and Dec 03, 2001, are analyzed with the aid of a dynamical model, i.e. with a model that uses the size-dependent motion of dust grains under solar radiation pressure to determine the dust size distribution and its temporal change. The frames are photometrically calibrated in terms of the albedo filling factor product. On Nov 20.2 the Earth transited the orbital plane of the comet and an anti-tail was recognized in the image of Nov 19. For the determination of the particle fluxes describing the contribution of monodisperse particle shells to the cometary brightness the model uses a new regularization method employing Chebyshev polynomials of selected orders in emission time and particle size. It guarantees positiveness of the particle fluxes and imposes a varying degree of smoothness on their dependence on particle size and emission time. The particle emission velocities are still derived by trial and error. The dynamical model is described in detail. Results are presented for several low orders of the Chebyshev polynomials and are compared in order to understand the limitations imposed by the regularization process. The size distributions derived from the different observations do not always agree. This is particularly true for the earliest and most recent synchrones contributing to an image. In the observations of Nov 10 and Dec 03, i.e. excluding the anti-tail image, the integrated mass loss strongly decreases in the most recent time steps of the model although the comet is still approaching the Sun. This is interpreted as an artifact introduced by the overlap of the shells of large particle size emitted shortly before the observation. The model derives an increasing number of small particles released by the comet in the second half of November. This is at least in part considered as real and attributed to particle fragmentation occurring when the comet was at a heliocentric distance of about 1.4 AU.     

Orbital YORP and asteroid orbit evolution, with application to Apophis

Photon thrust from shape alone can produce quasi-secular changes in an asteroid's orbital elements. An asteroid in an elliptical orbit with a north–south shape asymmetry can steadily alter its elements over timescales longer than one orbital trip about the Sun. This thrust, called here orbital YORP (YORP = Yarkovsky–O'Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack), operates even in the absence of thermal inertia, which the Yarkovsky effects require. However, unlike the Yarkovsky effects, which produce secular orbital changes over millions or billions of years, the change in an asteroid's orbital elements from orbital YORP operates only over the precession timescale of the orbit or of the asteroid's spin axis; this is generally only thousands or tens of thousands of years. Thus while the orbital YORP timescale is too short for an asteroid to secularly journey very far, it is long enough to warrant investigation with respect to 99942 Apophis, which might conceivably impact the Earth in 2036. A near-maximal orbital YORP effect is found by assuming Apophis is without thermal inertia and is shaped like a hemisphere, with its spin axis lying in the orbital plane. With these assumptions orbital YORP can change its along-track position by up to ±245 km, which is comparable to Yarkovsky effects. Though Apophis' shape, thermal properties, and spin axis orientation are currently unknown, the practical upper and lower limits are liable to be much less than the ±245 km extremes. Even so, the uncertainty in position is still likely to be much larger than the 0.5 km “keyhole” Apophis must pass through during its close approach in 2029 in order to strike the Earth in 2036.     

Searching for main-belt comets using the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey

The Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey, specifically the Very Wide segment of data, is used to search for possible main-belt comets. In the first data set, 952 separate objects with asteroidal orbits within the main-belt are examined using a three-level technique. First, the full-width-half-maximum of each object is compared to stars of similar magnitude, to look for evidence of a coma. Second, the brightness profiles of each object are compared with three stars of the same magnitude, which are nearby on the image to ensure any extended profile is not due to imaging variations. Finally, the star profiles are subtracted from the asteroid profile and the residuals are compared with the background using an unpaired T-test. No objects in this survey show evidence of cometary activity. The second survey includes 11438 objects in the main-belt, which are examined visually. One object, an unknown comet, is found to show cometary activity. Its motion is consistent with being a main-belt asteroid, but the observed arc is too short for a definitive orbit calculation. No other body in this survey shows evidence of cometary activity. Upper limits of the number of weakly and strongly active main-belt comets are derived to be 630±77 and 87±28, respectively. These limits are consistent with those expected from asteroid collisions. In addition, data extracted from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope image archive of main-belt Comet 176P/LINEAR is presented.     

Comparison between the findings of Deep Impact and our experimental results on large samples of gas-laden amorphous ice

The findings of Deep Impact on the structure and composition of Tempel-1 are compared with our experimental results on large (20 cm diameter and up to 10 cm high) samples of gas-laden amorphous ice. The mechanical ∼tensile strength inferred for Tempel-1: ∼65 Pa is 30 to 60 times smaller than our experimental findings of 2-4 kPa. This means that Tempel-1 is even fluffier than our very fluffy, talcum like, ice sample. The thermal inertia: is very close to our value of 80. The density of , is close to our value of 250-300 kg m⁻³, taking into account an ice/silicate ratio of 1 in the comet, while we study pure ice. Surface morphological features, such as non-circular depressions, chaotic terrain and smooth surfaces, were observed in our experiments. The only small increase in the gas/water vapor ratio pre- and post-impact, suggest that in the area excavated by the impactor, the 135 K front did not penetrate deeper than a few meters. Altogether, the agreement between the findings of Deep Impact and our experimental results point to a loose agglomerate of ice grains (with a silicate-organic core), which was formed by a very gentle aggregation of the ice grains, without compaction.     

Treatment of star catalog biases in asteroid astrometric observations

In this paper, we discuss the detection of systematic biases in star positions of the USNO A1.0, A2.0, and B1.0 catalogs, as deduced from the residuals of numbered asteroid observations. We present a technique for the removal of these biases, and validate this technique by illustrating the resulting improvements in numbered asteroid residuals, and by establishing that debiased orbits predict omitted observations more accurately than do orbits derived from non-debiased observations. We also illustrate the benefits of debiasing to high-precision astrometric applications such as asteroid mass determination and collision analysis, including a refined prediction of the impact probability of 99942 Apophis. Specifically, we find the IP of Apophis to be lowered by nearly an order of magnitude to 4.5 × 10⁻⁶ for the 2036 close approach.     

Equilibrium figures of spinning bodies with self-gravity

The study of the equilibrium and stability of spinning ellipsoidal fluid bodies with gravity began with Newton in 1687, and continues to the present day. However, no smaller bodies of the Solar System are fluid. Here I model those bodies as elastic-plastic solids using a cohesionless Mohr-Coulomb yield envelope characterized by an angle of friction. This study began in Holsapple 2001. Here new closed-form algebraic formulas for the spin limits of ellipsoidal shapes are derived using an energy method. The fluid results of Maclaurin and Jacobi are again recovered as special cases. I then consider the stability of those equilibrium states. For elastic-plastic solids the common methods cannot be used, because the constitutive equations lack sufficient smoothness at the limiting plastic states. Therefore, I propose and study a new measure of the stability of dynamic processes in general bodies. An energy-based approach is introduced which is shown to include stability approaches used in the statics of nonlinear elastic and elastic-plastic bodies, spectral definitions and the Liapunov methods used for finite-dimensional dynamical systems. The method is applied to spinning, solid, strained bodies. In contrast to the special fluid case, it is found that the strain energy term of solid materials generally induces stability of all equilibrium shapes, except for two possible cases. First, strain softening in the elastic-plastic law can result in instability at the plastic limit spin. Second, a loss of shear stiffness can give unstable states at specific spins less than the limit equilibrium spins. In the latter case, a solid spinning ellipsoidal body without elastic shear stiffness can spin no faster than with a period of about 3.7 hr, else it will fail by shearing deformations. That is distinctly slower than the oft-quoted limit of 2.1 hr at which material would be flung off the equator by tensile forces. However, the final conclusion is that neither cohesion nor tensile strength is required for the shapes and spins of almost all of the larger observed asteroids: we cannot rule out rubble-pile structures.     

Tidal disruptions: II. A continuum theory for solid bodies with strength, with applications to the Solar System

We present a comprehensive theory for the breakup conditions for ellipsoidal homogeneous secondary bodies subjected to the tidal forces from a nearby larger primary: for materials ranging from purely fluid ones, to granular rubble-pile gravel-like ones, and to those with either cohesive or granular strength including cohesive rocks and metals. The theory includes but greatly extends the classical analyses given by Roche in 1847, which dealt only with fluids, and also our previous analysis [Holsapple, K.A., Michel, P., 2006. Icarus 183, 331-348], which dealt only with solid but non-cohesive bodies. The results here give the distance inside of which breakup must occur, for both a steadily orbiting satellite and for a passing or impacting object. For the fluid bodies there is a single specific shape (a “Roche Ellipsoid”) that can be in equilibrium at any given distance from a primary, and especially only one shape that can exist at the overall minimum distance (d/R)(ρ/ρp)^1/3=2.455, the classical well-known “Roche limit.” In contrast, solid bodies can exist at a given distance from a primary with a range of shapes. Here we give multiple plots of the minimum distances for various important combinations of body shape, spin, mass density, and the strength parameters characterized by an angle of friction and cohesive strength. Such results can be used in different ways. They can be used to estimate limits on strengths and mass densities for orbiting bodies at a known distance and shape. They can be used to determine breakup distances for passing bodies with an assumed strength and shape. They can be used to constraint physical properties such as bulk density of bodies with a known shape that were known to breakup at a given distance. A collection of approximately 40 satellites of the Solar System is used for comparison to the theory. About half of those bodies are closer than the Roche fluid limit and must have some cohesion and/or friction angle to exist at their present orbital distance. The required solid strength for those states is determined. Finally, we apply the theory to the break up of the SL9 comet at close approach with Jupiter. Our results make clear that the literature estimates of its bulk density depend markedly on unknown parameters such as shape, orientation and spin, and most importantly, material strength characterization.     

V-type asteroids in the middle main belt

V-type asteroids are bodies whose surfaces are constituted of basalt. In the Main Asteroid Belt, most of these asteroids are assumed to come from the basaltic crust of Asteroid (4) Vesta. This idea is mainly supported by (i) the fact that almost all the known V-type asteroids are in the same region of the belt as (4) Vesta, i.e., the inner belt (semi-major axis 2.1<a<2.5 AU), (ii) the existence of a dynamical asteroid family associated to (4) Vesta, and (iii) the observational evidence of at least one large craterization event on Vesta's surface. One V-type asteroid that is difficult to fit in this scenario is (1459) Magnya, located in the outer asteroid belt, i.e., too far away from (4) Vesta as to have a real possibility of coming from it. The recent discovery of the first V-type asteroid in the middle belt (2.5<a<2.8 AU), (21238) 1995WV7 [Binzel, R.P., Masi, G., Foglia, S., 2006. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 38, 627; Hammergren, M., Gyuk, G., Puckett, A., 2006. ArXiv e-print, astro-ph/0609420], located at ∼2.54 AU, raises the question of whether it came from (4) Vesta or not. In this paper, we present spectroscopic observations indicating the existence of another V-type asteroid at ∼2.53 AU, (40521) 1999RL95, and we investigate the possibility that these two asteroids evolved from the Vesta family to their present orbits by a semi-major axis drift due to the Yarkovsky effect. The main problem with this scenario is that the asteroids need to cross the 3/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, which is highly unstable. Combining N-body numerical simulations of the orbital evolution, that include the Yarkovsky effect, with Monte Carlo models, we compute the probability that an asteroid of a given diameter D evolves from the Vesta family and crosses over the 3/1 resonance, reaching a stable orbit in the middle belt. Our results indicate that an asteroid like (21238) 1995WV7 has a low probability (∼1%) of having evolved through this mechanism due to its large size (D∼5 km), because the Yarkovsky effect is not sufficiently efficient for such large asteroids. However, the mechanism might explain the orbits of smaller bodies like (40521) 1999RL95 (D∼3 km) with ∼70-100% probability, provided that we assume that the Vesta family formed ?3.5 Gy ago. We estimate the debiased population of V-type asteroids that might exist in the same region as (21238) and (40521) (2.5<a?2.62 AU) and conclude that about 10 to 30% of the V-type bodies with D>1 km may come from the Vesta family by crossing over the 3/1 resonance. The remaining 70-90% must have a different origin.     

Spectral observations of 19 weathered and 23 fresh NEAs and their correlations with orbital parameters

Results of our visible to near-infrared spectrophotometric observations of 41 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are reported. These moderate-resolution spectra, along with 14 previously published spectra from our earlier survey [Hicks, M.D., Fink, U., Grundy, W.M., 1998. Icarus 133, 69-78] show a preponderance of spectra consistent with ordinary chondrites (23 NEAs with this type of spectrum, along with 19 S-types and 13 in other taxonomic groups). There exists statistically significant evidence for orbit-dependent trends in our data. While S-type NEAs from our survey reside primarily in (1) Amor orbits or (2) Aten or Apollo orbits which do not cross the asteroid main-belt, the majority of objects with spectra consistent with ordinary chondrites in our survey are in highly eccentric Apollo orbits which enter the asteroid main-belt. This trend toward fresh, relatively unweathered NEAs with ordinary chondrite type spectra in highly eccentric Apollo orbits is attributed to one or a combination of three possible causes: (1) the chaotic nature of NEA orbits can easily result in high eccentricity orbits/large aphelion distances so that they can enter the collisionally enhanced environment in the main-belt, exposing fresh surfaces, (2) they have recently been injected into such orbits after a collision in the main-belt, or (3) such objects cross the orbits of several terrestrial planets, causing tidal disruption events that expose fresh surfaces.     

The size-frequency distribution of dormant Jupiter family comets

We estimate the total number and the slope of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of dormant Jupiter family comets (JFCs) by fitting a one-parameter model to the known population. We first select 61 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are likely to be dormant JFCs because their orbits are dynamically coupled to Jupiter [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002a. Icarus 156, 399-433]. Then, from the numerical simulations of Levison and Duncan [1997. Icarus 127, 13-32], we construct an orbit distribution model for JFCs in the NEO orbital element space. We assume an orbit-independent SFD for all JFCs, the slope of which is our unique free parameter. Finally, we compute observational biases for dormant JFCs using a calibrated NEO survey simulator [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33]. By fitting the biased model to the data, we estimate that there are ∼75 dormant JFCs with H<18 in the NEO region and that the slope of their cumulative SFD is −1.5±0.3. Our slope for the SFD of dormant JFCs is very close to that of active JFCs as determined by Weissman and Lowry [2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 2003]. Thus, we argue that when JFCs fade they are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt and that the fate of faded comets is size-independent. Our results imply that the size distribution of the JFC progenitors—the scattered disk trans-neptunian population—either (i) has a similar and shallow SFD or (i^′) is slightly steeper and physical processes acting on the comets in a size-dependent manner creates the shallower active comet SFD. Our measured slope, typical of collisionally evolved populations with a size-dependent impact strength [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20], suggests that scattered disk bodies reached collisional equilibrium inside the protoplanetary disk prior to their removal from the planetary region.     

Solar wind interactions with Comet 19P/Borrelly

The Plasma Experiment for Planetary Exploration (PEPE) made detailed observations of the plasma environment of Comet 19P/Borrelly during the Deep Space 1 (DS1) flyby on September 22, 2001. Several distinct regions and boundaries have been identified on both inbound and outbound trajectories, including an upstream region of decelerated solar wind plasma and cometary ion pickup, the cometary bow shock, a sheath of heated and mixed solar wind and cometary ions, and a collisional inner coma dominated by cometary ions. All of these features were significantly offset to the north of the nucleus-Sun line, suggesting that the coma itself produces this offset, possibly because of well-collimated large dayside jets directed 8°-10° northward from the nucleus as observed by the DS1 MICAS camera. The maximum observed ion density was 1640 ion/cm³ at a distance of 2650 km from the nucleus while the flow speed dropped from 360 km/s in the solar wind to 8 km/s at closest approach. Preliminary analysis of PEPE mass spectra suggest that the ratio of CO⁺/H₂O⁺ is lower than that observed with Giotto at 1P/Halley.     

Comets in the near-Earth object population

Because the lifespan of near-Earth objects (NEOs) is shorter than the age of the Solar System, these objects originate elsewhere. Their most likely sources are the main asteroid belt and comets. Through physical observations we seek to identify potential dormant or extinct comets among “asteroids” catalogued as NEOs and thereby determine the fraction of “comet candidates” within the total NEO population. Both discovery statistics and dynamical models indicate that candidate cometary objects in near-Earth space are predominantly found among those having a jovian Tisserand parameter Tj<3. Therefore, we seek to identify comet candidates among asteroid-like NEOs using three criteria: Tj<3, spectral parameters (C, D, T, or P taxonomic types), and/or low (<0.075) albedos. We present new observations for 20 NEOs having Tj<3, consisting of visible spectra, near-infrared spectra, and/or albedo measurements obtained using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility, the Kitt Peak National Observatory 4 m, and the Magellan Observatory 6.5-m. Four of our “asteroid” targets have been subsequently confirmed as low activity comets. Thus our sample includes spectra of the nuclei of Comets 2002 EX12 = 169P (NEAT), 2001 WF2 = 182P (LONEOS), 2003 WY25 = D/1891 W1 (Blanplain), and Halley Family Comet 2006 HR30 = P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring). From the available literature, we tabulate physical properties for 55 NEOs having Tj<3, and after accounting for possible bias effects, we estimate that 54±10% of NEOs in Tj<3 orbits have “comet-like” spectra or albedos. Bias corrected discovery statistics [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295-311] estimate 30±5% of the entire NEO population resides in orbits having Tj<3. Combining these two factors suggests that 16±5% of the total discovered “asteroid-like” NEO population has “comet-like” dynamical and physical properties. Outer main-belt asteroids typically have similar taxonomic and albedo properties as our “comet candidates.” Using the model of Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.M., Levison, H., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] to evaluate source region probabilities, we conclude that 8±5% of the total asteroid-like NEO population have the requisite orbital properties, physical properties, and dynamical likelihood to have originated as comets from the outer Solar System.     

Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth

We consider a small sample of known near Earth objects (NEOs), both asteroids and comets, with low minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID). Through a simple numerical procedure we generate slightly different orbits from this sample in such a way that these bodies will collide with the Earth at a specific epoch. Then we study the required change in orbital velocity (along track Δv) in order to deflect these NEOs at different epochs before the impact event. The orbital evolution of these NEOs is performed through a full N-body numerical integrator. A comparison with analytical estimates is also performed in selected cases. Interesting features in the Δv/time before impact plots are found; as a prominent result, we find that close approaches to the Earth before the epoch of the impact can make the overall deflection easier.     

Limits on the size and orbit distribution of main belt comets

The first of a new class of objects now known as main belt comets (MBCs) or “activated asteroids” was identified in 1996. The seven known members of this class have orbital characteristics of main belt asteroids yet exhibit dust ejection like comets. In order to constrain their physical and orbital properties we searched the Thousand Asteroid Light Curve Survey (TALCS; Masiero, J.R., Jedicke, R., Durech, J., Gwyn, S., Denneau, L., Larsen, J. [2009]. Icarus 204, 145-171) for additional candidates using two diagnostics: tail and coma detection. This was the most sensitive MBC survey effort to date, extending the search from MBCs with H ∼ 18 (D ∼ 1 km) to MBCs as small as H ∼ 21 (D ∼ 150 m).We fit each of the 924 objects detected by TALCS to a PSF model incorporating both a coma and nuclear component to measure the fractional contribution of the coma to the total surface brightness. We determined the significance of the coma detection using the same algorithm on a sample of null detections of comparable magnitude and rate of motion. We did not identify any MBC candidates with this technique to a sensitivity limit on the order of cometary mass loss rate of about 0.1 kg/s.Our tail detection algorithm relied on identifying statistically significant flux in a segmented annulus around the candidate object. We show that the technique can detect tail activity throughout the asteroid belt to the level of the currently known MBCs. Although we did not identify any MBC candidates with this technique, we find a statistically significant detection of faint activity in the entire ensemble of TALCS asteroids. This suggests that many main belt asteroids are active at very low levels.Our null detection of MBCs allows us to set 90% upper confidence limits on the number distribution of MBCs as a function of absolute magnitude, semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination. There are ?400,000 MBCs in the main belt brighter than H_V = 21 (∼150-m in diameter) and the MBC:MBA ratio is ?1:400.We further comment on the ability of observations to meaningfully constrain the snow line’s location. Under some reasonable and simple assumptions we claim 85% confidence that the contemporary snow line lies beyond 2.5 AU.     

Express delivery of fossil meteorites from the inner asteroid belt to Sweden

Our understanding of planet formation depends in fundamental ways on what we learn by analyzing the composition, mineralogy, and petrology of meteorites. Yet, it is difficult to deduce the compositional and thermal gradients that existed in the solar nebula from the meteoritic record because, in most cases, we do not know where meteorites with different chemical and isotopic signatures originated. Here we developed a model that tracks the orbits of meteoroid-sized objects as they evolve from the ν₆ secular resonance to Earth-crossing orbits. We apply this model to determining the number of meteorites accreted on the Earth immediately after a collisional disruption of a D∼200-km-diameter inner-main-belt asteroid in the Flora family region. We show that this event could produce fossil chondrite meteorites found in an ≈470 Myr old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, the L-chondrite meteorites with shock ages ≈470 Myr falling on the Earth today, as well as asteroid-sized fragments in the Flora family. To explain the measured short cosmic-ray exposure ages of fossil meteorites our model requires that the meteoroid-sized fragments were launched at speeds >500 m s⁻¹ and/or the collisional lifetimes of these objects were much shorter immediately after the breakup event than they are today.     

On the shapes and spins of “rubble pile” asteroids

We examine the shape of a “rubble pile” asteroid as it slowly gains angular momentum by YORP torque, to the point where “landsliding” occurs. We find that it evolves to a “top” shape with constant angle of repose from the equator up to mid-latitude, closely resembling the shapes of several nearly critically spinning asteroids imaged by radar, most notably (66391) 1999 KW4 [Ostro, S.J., Margot, J.-L., Benner, L.A.M., Giorgini, J.D., Scheeres, D.J., Fahnestock, E.G., Broschart, S.B., Bellerose, J., Nolan, M.C., Magri, C., Pravec, P., Scheirich, P., Rose, R., Jurgens, R.F., De Jong, E.M., Suzuki, S., 2006. Science 314, 1276-1280]. Similar calculations for non-spinning extremely prolate or oblate “rubble piles” show that even loose rubble can sustain shapes far from fluid equilibrium, thus inferences based on fluid equilibrium are generally useless for inferring bulk properties such as density of small bodies. We also investigate the tidal effects of a binary system with a “top shape” primary spinning at near the critical limit for stability. We find that very close to the stability limit, the tide from the secondary can actually levitate loose debris from the surface and re-deposit it, in a process we call “tidal saltation.” In the process, angular momentum is transferred from the primary spin to the satellite orbit, thus maintaining the equilibrium of near-critical spin as YORP continues to add angular momentum to the system. We note that this process is in fact dynamically related to the process of “shepherding” of narrow rings by neighboring satellites.