A steady-state model of NEA binaries formed by tidal disruption of gravitational aggregates

We present results of a simulation of a steady-state binary near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. This study combines previous work on tidal disruption of gravitational aggregates [Walsh, K.J., Richardson, D.C., 2006. Icarus 180, 201-216] with a Monte Carlo simulation of NEA planetary encounters. Evolutionary effects include tidal evolution and binary disruption from close planetary encounters. The results show that with the best known progenitor (small Main Belt asteroids) shape and spin distributions, and current estimates of NEA lifetime and encounter probabilities, that tidal disruption should account for approximately 1-2% of NEAs being binaries. Given the best observed estimate of a ∼15% binary NEA fraction, we conclude that there are other formation mechanisms that contribute significantly to this population. We also present the expected distribution of binary orbital and physical properties for the steady-state binary NEAs formed by tidal disruption. We discuss the effects on binary fraction and properties due to changes in the least constrained parameters, and other possible effects on our model that could account for differences between the presented results and the observed binary population. Finally, we model possible effects of a significant population of binaries migrating to the near-Earth population from the Main Belt.     

Impact evolution of asteroid shapes: 1. random mass redistribution

We explore whether the cumulative effect of small-scale meteoroid bombardment can drive asteroids into nonaxisymmetric shapes comparable to those of known objects (elongated prolate forms, twin-lobed binaries, etc). We simulate impact cratering as an excavation followed by the launch, orbit, and reimpact of ejecta. Orbits are determined by the gravity and rotation of the evolving asteroid, whose shape and spin change as cratering occurs repeatedly. For simplicity we consider an end-member evolution where impactors are all much smaller than the asteroid and where all ejecta remain bound. Given those assumptions, we find that cumulative small impacts on rotating asteroids lead to oblate shapes, irrespective of the chosen value for angle of repose or for initial angular momentum. The more rapidly a body is spinning, the more flattened the outcome, but oblateness prevails. Most actual asteroids, by contrast, appear spherical to prolate. We also evaluate the timescale for reshaping by small impacts and compare it to the timescale for catastrophic disruption. For all but the steepest size distributions of impactors, reshaping from small impacts takes more than an order of magnitude longer than catastrophic disruption. We conclude that small-scale cratering is probably not dominant in shaping asteroids, unless our assumptions are naive. We believe we have ruled out the end-member scenario; future modeling shall include angular momentum evolution from impacts, mass loss in the strength regime, and craters with diameters up to the disruption threshold. The ultimate goal is to find out how asteroids get their shapes and spins and whether tidal encounters in fact play a dominant role.     

Dynamics of rotationally fissioned asteroids: Source of observed small asteroid systems

We present a model of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) rotational fission and ensuing dynamics that describes the creation of synchronous binaries and all other observed NEA systems including: doubly synchronous binaries, high-e binaries, ternary systems, and contact binaries. Our model only presupposes the Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, “rubble pile” asteroid geophysics, and gravitational interactions. The YORP effect torques a “rubble pile” asteroid until the asteroid reaches its fission spin limit and the components enter orbit about each other (Scheeres, D.J. [2007]. Icarus 189, 370-385). Non-spherical gravitational potentials couple the spin states to the orbit state and chaotically drive the system towards the observed asteroid classes along two evolutionary tracks primarily distinguished by mass ratio. Related to this is a new binary process termed secondary fission - the secondary asteroid of the binary system is rotationally accelerated via gravitational torques until it fissions, thus creating a chaotic ternary system. The initially chaotic binary can be stabilized to create a synchronous binary by components of the fissioned secondary asteroid impacting the primary asteroid, solar gravitational perturbations, and mutual body tides. These results emphasize the importance of the initial component size distribution and configuration within the parent asteroid. NEAs may go through multiple binary cycles and many YORP-induced rotational fissions during their approximately 10 Myr lifetime in the inner Solar System. Rotational fission and the ensuing dynamics are responsible for all NEA systems including the most commonly observed synchronous binaries.     

Photometric survey of binary near-Earth asteroids

Photometric data on 17 binary near-Earth asteroids (15 of them are certain detections, two are probables) were analysed and characteristic properties of the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) binary population were inferred. We have found that binary systems with a secondary-to-primary mean diameter ratio Ds/Dp?0.18 concentrate among NEAs smaller than 2 km in diameter; the abundance of such binaries decreases significantly among larger NEAs. Secondaries show an upper size limit of Ds=0.5-1 km. Systems with Ds/Dp?0.5 are abundant but larger satellites are significantly less common. Primaries have spheroidal shapes and they rotate rapidly, with periods concentrating between 2.2 to 2.8 h and with a tail of the distribution up to ∼4 h. The fast rotators are close to the critical spin for rubble piles with bulk densities about 2 g/cm³. Orbital periods show an apparent cut-off at Porb∼11 h; closer systems with shorter orbital periods have not been discovered, which is consistent with the Roche limit for strengthless bodies. Secondaries are more elongated on average than primaries. Most, but not all, of their rotations appear to be synchronized with the orbital motion; nonsynchronous secondary rotations may occur especially among wider systems with Porb>20 h. The specific total angular momentum of most of the binary systems is similar to within ±20% and close to the angular momentum of a sphere with the same total mass and density, rotating at the disruption limit; this suggests that the binaries were created by mechanism(s) related to rotation near the critical limit and that they neither gained nor lost significant amounts of angular momentum during or since formation. A comparison with six small asynchronous binaries detected in the main belt of asteroids suggests that the population extends beyond the region of terrestrial planets, but with characteristics shifted to larger sizes and longer periods. The estimated mean proportion of binaries with Ds/Dp?0.18 among NEAs larger than 0.3 km is 15±4%. Among fastest rotating NEAs larger than 0.3 km with periods between 2.2 and 2.8 h, the mean proportion of such binaries is (66⁺¹⁰₋₁₂)%.     

Three-body capture of irregular satellites: Application to Jupiter

We investigate a new theory of the origin of the irregular satellites of the giant planets: capture of one member of a ∼100-km binary asteroid after tidal disruption. The energy loss from disruption is sufficient for capture, but it cannot deliver the bodies directly to the observed orbits of the irregular satellites. Instead, the long-lived capture orbits subsequently evolve inward due to interactions with a tenuous circumplanetary gas disk.We focus on the capture by Jupiter, which, due to its large mass, provides a stringent test of our model. We investigate the possible fates of disrupted bodies, the differences between prograde and retrograde captures, and the effects of Callisto on captured objects. We make an impulse approximation and discuss how it allows us to generalize capture results from equal-mass binaries to binaries with arbitrary mass ratios.We find that at Jupiter, binaries offer an increase of a factor of ∼10 in the capture rate of 100-km objects as compared to single bodies, for objects separated by tens of radii that approach the planet on relatively low-energy trajectories. These bodies are at risk of collision with Callisto, but may be preserved by gas drag if their pericenters are raised quickly enough. We conclude that our mechanism is as capable of producing large irregular satellites as previous suggestions, and it avoids several problems faced by alternative models.     

An analysis of v sin (i) correlations in early-type binaries

We use information on the   v sin ( i )  values of early-type binaries in order to search for correlations which may constrain the relative orientation of the stellar spin axes in binary systems. We find correlations in the case of close binaries which suggest that tidal synchronization is effective for binaries whose separation exceeds the stellar radius by more than an order of magnitude, in line with the theoretical predictions of Goldreich & Nicholson and the previous observational analysis of Giuricin et al. In the case of wide binaries, the   v sin ( i )  values are not well correlated, which requires that the magnitude of the spin speeds is not tightly correlated. Under this assumption, we then find that the data provide no significant constraints on the degree of alignment of spin axes. The data are therefore compatible with scenarios (such as disc fragmentation or capture) which differ widely in the expected degree of spin alignment.     

Equilibrium shapes of rubble-pile binaries: The Darwin ellipsoids for gravitationally held granular aggregates

Binaries are in vogue; many minor-planets like asteroids are being found to be binary or contact-binary systems. Even ternaries like 87 Sylvia have been discovered. The densities of these binaries are often estimated to be very low, and this, along with suspected accretionary origins, hints at a rubble interior. As in the case of fluid objects, a rubble-pile is unable to sustain all manners of spin, self-gravitation, and tidal interactions. This motivates the present study of the possible ellipsoidal shapes and mutual separations that members of a rubble-pile binary system may achieve. Conversely, knowledge of a granular binary’s shape and separation will constrain its internal structure - the ability of the binary’s members to sustain elongated shapes and/or maintain contact will hint at appreciable internal frictional strength. Because the binary’s members are allowed to be of comparable mass, the present investigation constitutes an extension of the second classical Darwin problem to granular aggregates.General equations defining the ellipsoidal rubble-pile binary system’s equilibrium are developed. These are then specialized to a pair of spin-locked, possibly unequal, prolate ellipsoidal granular aggregates aligned along their long axes. We observe that contact rubble-pile binaries can indeed exist. Further, depending on the binary’s geometry, an equilibrium contact binary’s members may, in fact, disrupt if separated. These results are applied to four suspected or known binaries: 216 Kleopatra, 25143 Itokawa, 624 Hektor and 90 Antiope. This exercise helps to bound the shapes and/or provide information about the interiors of these binaries.The binary’s interior will be modeled as a rigid-plastic, cohesionless material with a Drucker-Prager yield criterion. This rheology is a reasonable first model for rubble piles. We employ an approximate volume-averaging procedure that is based on the classical method of moments, and is an extension of the virial method (Chandrasekhar, S., 1969. Ellipsoidal Figures of Equilibrium. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT) to granular solid bodies. The present approach also helps us present an incrementally consistent approach to investigate the equilibrium shapes of fluid binaries, while highlighting the inconsistencies and errors inherent in the popular “Roche binary approximation”.     

Binary asteroid systems: Tidal end states and estimates of material properties

The locations of the fully despun, double synchronous end states of tidal evolution, where the rotation rates of both the primary and secondary components in a binary system synchronize with the mean motion about the center of mass, are derived for spherical components. For a given amount of scaled angular momentum J/J′, the tidal end states are over-plotted on a tidal evolution diagram in terms of mass ratio of the system and the component separation (semimajor axis in units of primary radii). Fully synchronous orbits may not exist for every combination of mass ratio and angular momentum; for example, equal-mass binary systems require J/J′ > 0.44. When fully synchronous orbits exist for prograde systems, tidal evolution naturally expands the orbit to the stable outer synchronous solution. The location of the unstable inner synchronous orbit is typically within two primary radii and often within the radius of the primary itself. With the exception of nearly equal-mass binaries, binary asteroid systems are in the midst of lengthy tidal evolutions, far from their fully synchronous tidal end states. Of those systems with unequal-mass components, few have even reached the stability limit that splits the fully synchronous orbit curves into unstable inner and stable outer solutions.Calculations of material strength based on limiting the tidal evolution time to the age of the Solar System indicate that binary asteroids in the main belt with 100-km-scale primary components are consistent with being made of monolithic or fractured rock as expected for binaries likely formed from sub-catastrophic impacts in the early Solar System. To tidally evolve in their dynamical lifetime, near-Earth binaries with km-scale primaries or smaller created via a spin-up mechanism must be much weaker mechanically than their main-belt counterparts even if formed in the main belt prior to injection into the near-Earth region. Small main-belt binaries, those having primary components less than 10 km in diameter, could bridge the gap between the large main-belt binaries and the near-Earth binaries, as, depending on the age of the systems, small main-belt binaries could either be as strong as the large main-belt binaries or as weak as the near-Earth binaries. The inherent uncertainty in the age of a binary system is the leading source of error in calculation of material properties, capable of affecting the product of rigidity μ and tidal dissipation function Q by orders of magnitude. Several other issues affecting the calculation of μQ are considered, though these typically affect the calculation by no more than a factor of two. We also find indirect evidence within all three groups of binary asteroids that the semimajor axis of the mutual orbit in a binary system may evolve via another mechanism (or mechanisms) in addition to tides with the binary YORP effect being a likely candidate.     

Tidal evolution of close binary asteroid systems

We provide a generalized discussion of tidal evolution to arbitrary order in the expansion of the gravitational potential between two spherical bodies of any mass ratio. To accurately reproduce the tidal evolution of a system at separations less than 5 times the radius of the larger primary component, the tidal potential due to the presence of a smaller secondary component is expanded in terms of Legendre polynomials to arbitrary order rather than truncated at leading order as is typically done in studies of well-separated system like the Earth and Moon. The equations of tidal evolution including tidal torques, the changes in spin rates of the components, and the change in semimajor axis (orbital separation) are then derived for binary asteroid systems with circular and equatorial mutual orbits. Accounting for higher-order terms in the tidal potential serves to speed up the tidal evolution of the system leading to underestimates in the time rates of change of the spin rates, semimajor axis, and mean motion in the mutual orbit if such corrections are ignored. Special attention is given to the effect of close orbits on the calculation of material properties of the components, in terms of the rigidity and tidal dissipation function, based on the tidal evolution of the system. It is found that accurate determinations of the physical parameters of the system, e.g., densities, sizes, and current separation, are typically more important than accounting for higher-order terms in the potential when calculating material properties. In the scope of the long-term tidal evolution of the semimajor axis and the component spin rates, correcting for close orbits is a small effect, but for an instantaneous rate of change in spin rate, semimajor axis, or mean motion, the close-orbit correction can be on the order of tens of percent. This work has possible implications for the determination of the Roche limit and for spin-state alteration during close flybys.     

Formation of the binary near‐Earth object 1996 FG3: Can binary NEOs be the source of short‐CRE meteorites?

Abstract— 1996 FG₃ is a binary near‐Earth object (NEO) that was likely formed during a tidal disruption event. Our results indicate that the formation of this binary object was unlikely to have occurred when the progenitor had a encounter velocity with the Earth significantly smaller than its current value (10.7 km/s); The formation of the binary object on an orbit similar to the present one is possible, and the survival of the satellite constrains this to have happened less than 1.6 Ma ago. However, the binary object could also have been formed when the progenitor's encounter velocity with Earth was >12 km/s, and in this case we cannot constrain its formation age. Our results indicate that tidal disruptions occurring among NEOs with low velocity encounters with Earth are unlikely to produce long‐lasting NEO binaries. Thus, tidal disruption may not be able to completely re‐supply the observed population. This would imply that a significant fraction of the observed NEO binaries evolved out of the main asteroid belt. Overall, our results suggest to us that the CM2 meteorites having cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages of ?200,000 yr were likely liberated by the tidal disruption of a primitive NEO with a relative velocity with the Earth significantly smaller than that of 1996 FG₃. We propose a list of such objects, although as far as we know, none of the candidates is a binary for the reasons described above.     

Orbital evolution of small binary asteroids

About 15% of both near-Earth and main-belt asteroids with diameters below 10 km are now known to be binary. These small asteroid binaries are relatively uniform and typically contain a fast-spinning, flattened primary and a synchronously rotating, elongated secondary that is 20-40% as large (in diameter) as the primary. The principal formation mechanism for these binaries is now thought to be YORP (Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect induced spin-up of the primary followed by mass loss and accretion of the secondary from the released material. It has previously been suggested (?uk, M. [2007]. Astrophys. J. 659, L57-L60) that the present population of small binary asteroids is in a steady state between production through YORP and destruction through binary YORP (BYORP), which should increase or decrease secondary’s orbit, depending on the satellite’s shape. However, BYORP-driven evolution has not been directly modeled until now. Here we construct a simple numerical model of the binary’s orbital as well the secondary’s rotational dynamics which includes BYORP and selected terms representing main solar perturbations. We find that many secondaries should be vulnerable to chaotic rotation even for relatively low-eccentricity mutual orbits. We also find that the precession of the mutual orbit for typical small binary asteroids might be dominated by the perturbations from the prolate and librating secondary, rather than the oblate primary. When we evolve the mutual orbit by BYORP we find that the indirect effects on the binary’s eccentricity (through the coupling between the orbit and the secondary’s spin) dominate over direct ones caused by the BYORP acceleration. In particular, outward evolution causes eccentricity to increase and eventually triggers chaotic rotation of the secondary. We conclude that the most likely outcome will be reestablishing of the synchronous lock with a “flipped” secondary which would then evolve back in. For inward evolution we find an initial decrease of eccentricity and secondary’s librations, to be followed by later increase. We think that it is likely that various forms of dissipation we did not model may damp the secondary’s librations close to the primary, allowing for further inward evolution and a possible merger. We conclude that a merger or a tidal disruption of the secondary are the most likely outcomes of the BYORP evolution. Dissociation into heliocentric pairs by BYORP alone should be very difficult, and satellite loss might be restricted to the minority of systems containing more than one satellite at the time.     

Minimum energy asteroid reconfigurations and catastrophic disruptions

Dramatic alteration of an asteroid's morphology need not involve high energy impacts between bodies. Simple sunlight shining on an asteroid can, through the YORP effect, cause it to undergo dramatic reconfigurations, fission into a binary asteroid or, in some cases, even undergo a catastrophic disruption with the asteroid losing a large fraction of its initial mass. This paper discusses the system level constraints and conditions for these reconfigurations to occur for a body modeled as a collection of rigid bodies as its spin rate changes.     

Study on the Spin Characteristics of the Flora Asteroid Family

Asteroid families are the remnants of catastrophic collisions, and their fundamental physical properties provide us the information of their parent bodies and thereafter dynamical evolutions. Especially, the orbit and spin characteristics can reveal the influences of the Yarkovsky effect and the Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect on the evolution of the asteroid family, respectively. Based on the Asteroid Lightcurve Database (LCDB), the spin rate distribution of the Flora asteroid family is studied, and a tendency that the spin rates of the small Flora family members concentrate primarily in the range of 3–5 d^?1 is found. The analysis on the spin states of the Flora family asteroids tells that most of these asteroid family members are in the prograde spinning state. However, for the Flora family members with an orbital semi-major axis smaller than 2.2 au, the ratio between the number of prograde spinning members and that of retrograde ones is close to that of the near-Earth asteroids, namely 1 : 3. Furthermore, for those prograde spinning Flora family asteroids with an orbital semi-major axis larger than 2.2 au, a portion of them exhibit the aggregation in the distribution of orbital semi-major axis against the absolute magnitude, and in which nine members show the features similar to the Slivan state.     

Binary asteroid population. 2. Anisotropic distribution of orbit poles of small,inner main-belt binaries

Our photometric observations of 18 main-belt binary systems in more than one apparition revealed a strikingly high number of 15 having positively re-observed mutual events in the return apparitions. Our simulations of the survey showed that it cannot be due to an observational selection effect and that the data strongly suggest that poles of mutual orbits between components of binary asteroids in the primary size range 3–8 km are not distributed randomly: The null hypothesis of an isotropic distribution of the orbit poles is rejected at a confidence level greater than 99.99%. Binary orbit poles concentrate at high ecliptic latitudes, within 30° of the poles of the ecliptic. We propose that the binary orbit poles oriented preferentially up/down-right are due to either of the two processes: (i) the YORP tilt of spin axes of their parent bodies toward the asymptotic states near obliquities 0° and 180° (pre-formation mechanism) or (ii) the YORP tilt of spin axes of the primary components of already formed binary systems toward the asymptotic states near obliquities 0° and 180° (post-formation mechanism). The alternative process of elimination of binaries with poles closer to the ecliptic by dynamical instability, such as the Kozai effect due to gravitational perturbations from the Sun, does not explain the observed orbit pole concentration. This is because for close binary asteroid systems, the gravitational effects of primary’s irregular shape dominate the solar-tide effect.     

存在非同步转动的双星演化模型

通过计算双星演化中的角动量转移,研究了潮汐作用下双星系统自转与公转周期的变化以及潮汐作用对双星演化的影响.结果表明,密近双星系统在主序演化时,潮汐摩擦会在较短的时间内使自转与公转达到比较接近的状态,此后经过一个较长时间的调整才能使自转与公转达到同步转动.物质交换阶段开始后,半相接双星系统更容易出现非同步转动,而相接双星系统物质交换很难破坏系统的同步状态.同时比较了非同步双星模型与同步双星模型演化曲线在赫罗图上的不同,结果表明非同步模型在物质交换阶段主星演化曲线向赫罗图光度和有效温度高的方向移动.最后通过对统计的观测数据进行分析后发现,采用该模型可以解释观测上双星超过潮汐锁定时标后仍然存在非同步转动的现象.     

Numerical experiments with rubble piles: equilibrium shapes and spins

We present numerical experiments investigating the shape and spin limits of self-gravitating “perfect” rubble piles that consist of identical, smooth, rigid, spherical particles with configurable normal coefficient of restitution and no sliding friction. Such constructs are currently employed in a variety of investigations, ranging from the formation of asteroid satellites to the dynamical properties of Saturn's densest rings. We find that, owing to cannonball stacking behavior, rubble piles can maintain non-spherical shapes without bulk spin, unlike a fluid, and can spin faster than a perfect fluid before shedding mass, consistent with the theory for the more general continuum rubble pile model (Holsapple, 2004, Icarus 172, 272-303). Rubble piles that reassemble following a catastrophic disruption reconfigure themselves to lie within stability limits predicted by the continuum theory. We also find that coarse configurations consisting of a small number of particles are more resistant to tidal disruption than fine configurations with many particles. Overall this study shows that idealized rubble piles behave qualitatively in a manner similar to certain granular materials, at least in the limit where global shape readjustments and/or mass shedding begins. The limits obtained here may provide constraints on the possible internal structure of some small Solar System bodies that have extreme shapes or are under high stress. Amalthea is presented as a case study.     

Secular spin dynamics of inner main-belt asteroids

Understanding the evolution of asteroid spin states is challenging work, in part because asteroids have a variety of orbits, shapes, spin states, and collisional histories but also because they are strongly influenced by gravitational and non-gravitational (YORP) torques. Using efficient numerical models designed to investigate asteroid orbit and spin dynamics, we study here how several individual asteroids have had their spin states modified over time in response to these torques (i.e., 951 Gaspra, 60 Echo, 32 Pomona, 230 Athamantis, 105 Artemis). These test cases which sample semimajor axis and inclination space in the inner main belt, were chosen as probes into the large parameter space described above. The ultimate goal is to use these data to statistically characterize how all asteroids in the main belt population have reached their present-day spin states. We found that the spin dynamics of prograde-rotating asteroids in the inner main belt is generally less regular than that of the retrograde-rotating ones because of numerous overlapping secular spin-orbit resonances. These resonances strongly affect the spin histories of all bodies, while those of small asteroids (?40 km) are additionally influenced by YORP torques. In most cases, gravitational and non-gravitational torques cause asteroid spin axis orientations to vary widely over short (?1 My) timescales. Our results show that (951) Gaspra has a highly chaotic rotation state induced by an overlap of the s and s₆ spin-orbit resonances. This hinders our ability to investigate its past evolution and infer whether thermal torques have acted on Gaspra's spin axis since its origin.     

Flora小行星族自转特性研究

小行星族作为灾变碰撞的残留物,其基础物理性质提供了其母体以及后续演化信息.其中轨道以及自转特性分别反映了Yarkovsky效应以及Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack效应(YORP效应)对于小行星族演化的影响.基于小行星光变数据库(Asteroid Lightcurve Database),通过对Flora小行星族自转速率分布进行研究,发现随着直径减小,族成员自转速率倾向于主要集中在3–5 d^-1的范围内.同时,可以注意到Flora小行星族整体表现出更倾向于顺行自转状态的现象,但对于轨道半长轴小于2.2au的成员来说,其顺行自转与逆行自转状态成员数目比接近于近地小行星中顺逆行自转状态源1:3的比例;此外,对于轨道半长轴大于2.2 au且具有顺行自转状态的部分族成员,在轨道半长轴-绝对星等分布中表现出聚集现象,并在聚集区域中有9颗成员展现出类似Slivan状态特征.     

Generalized YORP evolution: Onset of tumbling and new asymptotic states

Asteroids have a wide range of rotation states. While the majority spin a few times to several times each day in principal axis rotation, a small number spin so slowly that they have somehow managed to enter into a tumbling rotation state. Here we investigate whether the Yarkovsky-Radzievskii-O'Keefe-Paddack (YORP) thermal radiation effect could have produced these unusual spin states. To do this, we developed a Lie-Poisson integrator of the orbital and rotational motion of a model asteroid. Solar torques, YORP, and internal energy dissipation were included in our model. Using this code, we found that YORP can no longer drive the spin rates of bodies toward values infinitely close to zero. Instead, bodies losing too much rotation angular momentum fall into chaotic tumbling rotation states where the spin axis wanders randomly for some interval of time. Eventually, our model asteroids reach rotation states that approach regular motion of the spin axis in the body frame. An analytical model designed to describe this behavior does a good job of predicting how and when the onset of tumbling motion should take place. The question of whether a given asteroid will fall into a tumbling rotation state depends on the efficiency of its internal energy dissipation and on the precise way YORP modifies the spin rates of small bodies.