水资源管理制度超模博弈分析——以钱塘江与黑河为例

运用超模博弈理论,以流域水资源管理制度形成的角度来解释流域各区段水资源管理政策执行面临的外部环境约束与激励,并通过模型描述了水资源管理域与外部关联域之间的博弈关系。分析发现：超模结构在当前钱塘江与黑河流域的水资源博弈中发挥着重要影响。钱塘江流域水资源管理制度收益函数对水功能区治理变量和经济域治理变量有递增差异。黑河流域水资源管理制度收益函数对分水治理变量和社会域治理变量有递增差异。由于这种关联作用对各区段主体策略集的限制,流域间水资源管理制度逐渐异质化,各流域管理结构呈现出一定的区域特色。钱塘江流域水资源管理偏重于扁平化、职能化管理,黑河流域为科层结构下水资源的层级分配。并依据以上研究结论提出了制度建议。     

River-basin planning and management: The social life of a concept

The concept of a river basin as a management or planning unit has gone through several stages and is in a state of flux. From its western “discovery” in the 18th century to its advent as the overriding concept behind European water policy, the river basin has been conjured up and mobilized in evolving contexts with varying intentions. Associated with utopian ideas of the late 19th century, it supported ideas of full control of the hydrologic regime and multipurpose dam construction in the 1930-1960 period, then partly faded and was revived to address water-quality problems, before reemerging in the 1990s as the cornerstone of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), enriched and blended with watershed- and ecosystem-management approaches.This article recounts the evolution of the concept of a river basin and how it has been associated with various strands of thinking and sometimes co-opted or mobilized by particular social groups or organizations to strengthen the legitimacy of their agendas. Beyond its relevance as a geographical unit for water resources development and management purposes, the river basin is also a political and ideological construct, with its discursive representations and justifications, closely linked with shifting scalar configurations, both ecological and in terms of regulatory regime or governance. How interconnected and nested waterscapes can be managed by discontinuous nested political/administrative and social levels remains a fundamental question fuelling an endless search for elusive governance systems that would unite nature and society.     

干旱区内陆河流域农户生态补偿支付意愿的空间异质性分析

深入开展支付意愿的空间差异和空间效应分析, 对于分区定策、 精准实施生态治理工程、 提高生态补偿实践绩效、 提升治理与保护效果等方面, 有着重要的现实指导意义。在确定影响流域农户支付意愿的主要因素的基础上, 借助多分类Logistic模型分析各因素对农户支付意愿的影响作用, 并通过引入通达距离、 距河道距离分别比较流域农户支付意愿的空间效应, 得到的主要结论包括： 在不考虑距离因素的情况下, 教育程度、 农户类型对于农户支付意愿的影响显著; 在考虑距离因素的情况下, 受教育程度对支付意愿的影响存在“脱钩”现象, 模型3模拟结果显示, 高中群体处于更高支付意愿的发生比为1.044, 而大专群体处于更高支付意愿水平的发生比仅为0.363, 即支付意愿并不会伴随受教育程度的提高而增强; 通达距离与支付意愿表现为先负相关（“距离衰减”现象）、 之后呈正相关（“距离递增”现象）的关系; 距河道距离远近对流域农户的支付意愿呈现明显的“距离衰减”规律。     

Scale,governance and the management of river basins: A case study from Central Iran

Aquatic socio-ecological systems show pervasive cross-scale interactions and problems of fit between ecosystems and institutions. Nested bio-hydrological processes within river basins are prone to third-party impacts, and equitable/sustainable management of water resources requires adequate governance patterns that both cover relevant scalar levels and handle cross-scale interactions. This paper provides the example of the Zayandeh Rud basin, in central Iran, and describes the historical evolution of water use at three different nested scales. It shows how the gradual overallocation of water resources (basin closure) and the manipulation of the hydrological cycle by the state and other actors have resulted in a constant spatial and social redistribution of water use and associated benefits and costs. State-centered modes of governance characterized by the priority to large-scale infrastructure, vested political and financial interests, lack of attention to local processes and hydrological interconnectedness, and the neglect of environmental degradation, must give way to forms of comanagement that better articulate the different levels of control and governance.     

黑河流域节水生态农业与流域水资源集成管理研究领域

概述了中国内陆河流域面临的水问题和日益激化的用水矛盾,强调了内陆河地区支柱产业——绿洲农业应该坚持节水和生态的方向,流域集成管理是持续农业的基础。长期从事该方面研究的黑河流域是个较好借鉴,同时也提供了深入开展相关研究的基础,为此提出了以黑河流域为背景的四大研究流域：水文、生物、经济系统水循环与水资源形成演变,节水农业的生物学研究与抗旱品种繁育,农业节水新材料研发与工程节水技术集成,水资源合理配置与流域集成管理;并简述了各领域的主要方向。     

黑河流域生态—水文观测试验与水—生态集成管理研究

对黑河流域水—生态—经济系统研究的主要内容“流域生态—水文观测试验与流域水—生态集成管理”做了概要论述。认为流域水循环、生态水、集成水管理三大科学问题的解决必需加强该领域的研究;结合黑河流域的前期基础、研究现状和能力建设,提出了近期研究的4个领域：流域水循环、水平衡与可利用水资源;流域生态—水文过程与生态环境用水;人类活动驱动的流域水—生态系统演变;流域生态—水文野外平台与流域集成环境。对此进行了进一步的阐述,对该方面研究的方法论和技术难点亦做了简述。     

关于塔里木河流域水功能区限制纳污红线管理的几点思考

建立并实施水功能区限制纳污制度是当前水资源保护管理工作的核心内容,也是实行最严格水资源管理制度的具体体现。本文针对塔河流域已开展的相关工作及其存在的问题进行了分析,并对塔河流域水功能区限制纳污红线管理今后可开展的工作进行了初步探讨。     

Old Chico’s new tricks: Neoliberalization and water sector reform in Brazil’s São Francisco River Basin

This article examines changing water governance modalities in the context of the neoliberalization of nature. Specifically, it focuses on Brazilian water sector reforms passed in 1997 that mandate decentralized and participatory decision-making at the river basin scale. Critics have suggested that rescaling, decentralization, and participatory governance mechanisms – supposedly intended to render decision-making more equitable, accessible, and relevant – can serve to legitimate, facilitate, and thus further embed processes of neoliberalization. Examining the impact of Brazil’s water sector reforms on the state–society relationship, this article presents a case study of water governance in the São Francisco River Basin and finds that the reforms – despite their neoliberalizing potential – have not significantly contributed to the neoliberalization of governance therein. Instead, water governance continues to be characterized by longstanding patterns of traditional elite control. Through an institutional and socio-natural analysis, this article describes and accounts for the continued dominance of these patterns relative to neoliberalization and explores activists’ efforts to use water sector reforms to pursue more progressive possibilities. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications for variegation and contestation in ongoing debates over neoliberal natures.     

The limits to good governance and the state of exception: A case study of North Sea fisheries

This paper explores a series of maxims, widely known in policy and academic circles as the ‘principles of good governance’, which state that policymaking in the European Union (EU) should be participatory, conducted as close to citizens as practicable, transparent, accountable, effective and coherent. These maxims were introduced into EU fisheries management as part of a radical reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in 2002. This reform was instituted in response to criticisms of a prevailing management regime alleged to be inefficient, undemocratic, and potentially responsible for an environmental crisis: the exhaustion of key fish stocks. The research for this work has found that there are limits to the actual achievement of good governance in EU fisheries. In practice governance innovations are very often contradictory and rife with tensions. I reason that such problems result not merely from policy implementation failures; they constitute a more endemic feature of the CFP reforms. We can begin to understand these limits to good governance principles by looking to Agamben’s permanent state of exception thesis. Agamben’s theory helps to show how these contradictions and tensions occur under new governance regimes, because the relationship between democratic norms (like good governance) and political power is no longer clear. I argue that this blurring has been exploited by groups seeking influence in these new regimes. They do this through citing a supposed need for emergency measures to mitigate crisis. Although this research broadly supports the state of exception thesis, my analysis leads me to question some aspects of its application in contemporary governance spaces.     

甘肃河西走廊内陆河流域节水战略选择——地表水与地下水联合管理

过去20多年甘肃河西走廊内陆河流域的水资源管理经历了各类制度改革,不同程度地推动了地表水和地下水的联合管理。但是,由于机构设置及其权限制约以及改革目标差异,河西走廊地区的3个内陆河流域水资源管理效率差异化越来越显著,与石羊河流域相比,黑河和疏勒河流域的监管制度和管理办法并未完全跳出多头管理体制的窠臼,地表水和地下水没有形成有效的联合管理。通过梳理3个流域的水资源管理机构设置和管理模式,总结农业灌溉用水监管的经验教训,对比分析地表水和地下水联合管理措施在实践操作中的利弊,进一步探讨流域联合管理的实践意义和实现路径,寻求普遍适用于内陆河流域水资源的管理办法,保障内陆河流域节水战略的顺利实施。近10 a的实践经验表明：地表水和地下水联合管理是内陆河流域提高水资源利用效率、促进水资源可持续利用最为有效的路径,更是实现区域生态环境绿色发展的必由之路。     

Water reform governmentality in Ecuador: Neoliberalism,centralization, and the restraining of polycentric authority and community rule-making

In most Latin American countries, issues concerning water governance and control also reflect broader conflicts over authority and legitimacy between the state and civil society. What lies behind the diverse water policy reforms is not simply a question of governing water affairs but also a drive to control or co-opt water user groups. This paper examines the efforts by the present Ecuadorian government to ‘control water users’ through new forms of ‘governmentality’ (Foucault, 1991). We use the ‘cathedral and bazaar’ metaphor (Lankford and Hepworth, 2010) to illustrate government rationale and practices in water governance shifts in the last decades. We analyze how Rafael Correa’s government sets out to reshape the relations between state, market and society. In its ‘Twenty-first Century Socialism’ project, based on a proclaimed ‘Citizen Revolution’, actual policy reform does not reverse but rather transforms the process of neoliberalizing water governance – creating a hybrid bazaar-cathedral model. We argue that the current water govermentality project implements reforms that do not challenge established market-based water governance foundations. Rather it aims to contain and undermine communities’ autonomy and ‘unruly’ polycentric rule-making, which are the result of both historical and present-day processes of change. Interestingly, water user federations that emerged during the neoliberal wave of the last two decades now claim water control space and search for new forms of democratizing water governance. They act as agents who fiercely – yet selectively and strategically – oppose both elements of the State-centered (cathedral) and market-based (bazaar) water governance models.     

Morphometric Analysis and Hydrological Inference for Water Resource Management in Atrai-Sib River Basin,NW Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technique

Demand for irrigation water increases day by day along with meteorological vagaries and extension of irrigated area in the drought-prone Barind area of Bangladesh. This increasing stress on water resource is gradually making the area water scare. The study is aimed at studying the morphometric parameters of the Atrai-Sib river basin in the Barind area and on their relevance in water resource management based on satellite images and SRTM DEM. Computation and delineation of linear and areal aspects of the river basin and its morphometric components reveals that stream order ranges from first to eighth order showing dendritic drainage pattern. The basin represents homogeneity of soil texture; possibility of flash flood after heavy rainfall with low discharge of runoff; and is not largely affected by structural disturbance. Moderate drainage density of the river basin area indicates semipermeable soil lithology with moderate vegetation. Mean bifurcation ratio of the basin is calculated as 3.92 and elongation ratio 0.75, which indicate elongated shape of the river basin with low to moderate relief bounded in the east and west by ‘moderate to steep’ sloping land area. It reveals a flatter peak of runoff flow for longer duration and gravity flow of water. The gentle but undulating slope of the basin represents ‘excellent’ category for groundwater management as the site is favorable for infiltration due to maximum time of runoff water percolation. The east facing slopes of the basin show higher moisture content and higher vegetation than the west-facing slope. The land use pattern of the area shows that major part (95.29%) comes under the cultivated land which will support future river basin development and management. Results obtained from the study would be useful in categorization of river basins for future water resource development and management, and selection of suitable sites for water conservation structures such as check dam, percolation tank, artificial recharge of groundwater through MAR technique etc.     

完善新时期水资源管理指标的方法

气候变化和人类活动极大地改变了流域水循环和水资源分布, 以供需管理为核心的水资源管理方法难以缓解缺水的局面。中国提出了新时期水资源相关管理政策, 然而受数据、对象和方法的限制, 新政策采用的管理指标和内涵目标间存在差异, 在缺水地区还必须增加耗水总量控制的约束指标, 实施取水与耗水的双向管控。本文通过综述国内外最新进展和案例, 提出新时期水资源管理指标的完善方法: 建立以蒸散监测为核心的现代耗水要素监测体系;健全以耗水上限为核心的水资源刚性约束方法, 通过综合考虑环境流量用水和生态服务耗水的需求, 核定流域人类活动水资源可消耗量的上限, 实现水资源的刚性约束;实施耗水约束机制, 通过约束农业规模、合理规划生态恢复治理的规模和方式, 实现水资源发展的“四水四定”既定原则。期望通过数据、方法和措施的创新能够切实保障新时期水资源治理模式的有效实施。     

河西内陆河径流对气候变化的响应及其流域适应性水资源管理研究

为探讨河西地区内陆河径流对气候变化的响应, 选取1955-2008年石羊河、黑河和疏勒河的河流流量资料进行计算和分析. 结果表明: 50多年来, 石羊河年径流总体呈明显下降趋势, 黑河呈略有增加趋势, 疏勒河呈明显增加趋势, 地域上呈现愈往西部的河流年径流量增加愈明显. 三大河流进入1990年代后有下降趋势, 进入21世纪均有明显增多趋势. 三大河流径流对气候变化有不同响应, 石羊河流域主要受季风气候影响, 气候变暖, 蒸发加剧, 水分散失量大, 是造成径流减少的主要原因;黑河和疏勒河流域主要受西风带环流影响, 径流增多的重要原因是气候变暖降水明显增多. 为减缓气候变化对流域水资源利用的不利影响, 在分析三大内陆河流量对气候变化响应特征的基础上, 提出了适应性水资源管理的建议. 建议应提高水资源利用效率;改变生产方式, 调整农业种植业结构与布局;加大祁连山自然保护区建设, 搞好水资源可持续利用;积极开发祁连山丰富的空中云水资源、哺育祁连山冰川等流域适应性水资源管理对策, 对流域进行综合治理与开发利用, 这些措施和对策将为流域水资源开发提供科学依据.     

国际上水资源综合管理进展

中国近年实施最严格水资源管理制度、全面推行河长制等一系列政策,不断探索完善水资源综合管理的体制和机制。为加强对水资源综合管理的认识,推动中国水资源综合管理的实施,结合国际社会对水资源综合管理认识和实践新成果,主要梳理总结水资源综合管理理念的形成过程、主要组成、实施状况、存在问题和发展趋势。结果显示:(1)随着对传统水资源管理存在分散化等问题的认识,水资源综合管理的理念逐渐形成,并已被国际社会所接受;(2)水资源综合管理实施"综合"途径管理水资源,强调通过完善实施的环境条件、机构框架、具体管理手段和稳健的水基础设施投资机制,实现用水效率、社会公平、环境可持续的均衡;(3)许多国家已把综合管理的理念和措施纳入到其水资源管理政策和体制框架设计中,并在水管理的实践过程中取得新进展;(4)国际上水资源综合管理理念和经验为进一步完善中国水资源管理提供了启示和借鉴;(5)未来水资源综合管理将进一步得到推广实施,从理念到解决具体水问题的实践过程将进一步加强,并呈现多样性和动态性特征。尽管面临由于气候变化影响和水与社会经济交互作用导致的不确定性、复杂性等问题的挑战,随着水资源综合管理的实践和水科学研究进步,水资源管理将进一步采用整体、多学科和可持续的途径,助力可持续发展目标的实现。     

1985-2013年黑河中游流域地下水位动态变化特征

在气候变化和人类活动的影响下, 黑河流域地表水和地下水的时空分布特征发生了很大变化. 研究水系统演化及其驱动机制对流域水资源可持续管理非常关键. 基于甘肃河西黑河中游流域地下水位动态、水文气象、土地利用和灌溉统计数据, 研究了1985-2013年黑河中游流域地下水位时空变化. 结果表明: 地表水的不合理分配和耕地的扩展导致了地下水的过量开采和地下水位的剧烈变化. 1985-2004年区域地下水位以下降为主; 2005-2013年呈现下降和回升两极发展趋势, 冲洪积扇群带地下水最大下降达17.41 m, 而黑河干流沿岸地下水位最大回升了3.3 m, 地下水埋深普遍增加了1.0~3.0 m. 尽管地下水位在2005-2013年表现出回升趋势, 但干流中游盆地地下水系统处于严重负均衡状态, 制定合理的“生态分水”方案和水资源综合管理规划非常紧迫.     

中国西北内陆河水问题及其应对策略——以黑河流域为例

中国被联合国列为13个贫水国之一,占国土面积1/3的内陆河地区先天性的水资源不足,再叠加不合理的利用,使得水问题成为西北内陆河流域经济发展和生态保护的关键性问题.以黑河为例论述了流域尺度的水、土、生态、环境及管理问题;提出缓解流域水资源矛盾必须在流域尺度提高水效益的适应对策;讨论了绿洲灌区水资源利用率提高的4个环节,即灌溉水向土壤水转化、土壤水的生物利用、生物水的生产率以及市场需求的产业配置;展示了水源涵养、节水型绿洲建设、生态水利用率提高的部分实例;分析了水资源的社会化管理的阶段、问题与途径,强调流域虚拟水配置战略,指出提高流域水-生态-经济综合效益仍有较大潜力.     

干旱地区内陆河流域水文问题的研究实践与展望

过去，干旱地区内陆河流域水文研究主要偏重于山区水文，注重山区来水及径流分析，而很少涉及灌区问题和生态问题，对绿洲水文和荒漠水文的研究十分缺乏。以新疆为例，通过对干旱地区河流的基本特征和水文机理的分析研究，从径流形成、水资源开发利用、生态环境保护三位一体，即从全流域水文循环的角度出发，提出了以山区水文、绿洲水文、荒漠生态水文为三大构成要素的干旱地区内陆河流域水文系统的新概念，并基于干旱地区内陆河流域水文问题的研究实践，提出了各自领域的研究内容和方向，进一步拓宽了水文问题的研究领域，对水文学科的研究与发展提出了新的思路，注入了新的内容。     

大通河流域水能水资源开发对河流水文过程和环境的影响

根据水文观测和引水与水电开发资料,分析了大通河流域水能水资源开发利用现状及其对河流水文过程与生态环境的影响.结果表明：由于区域用水和跨流域引水,使大通河中下游河道的水量减少,水环境容量减小,其中,青石嘴、天堂、连城(二)站3-11月平均流量分别减少0.6%~9.6%、0.5%~3.8%、1.7%~52.9%. 自1994年引大入秦工程建成跨流域引水后,连城(二)站年径流量开始减少,1994-2010年平均径流量比1977-1993年减少了5.7%;引大济湟工程建成通水后,加上引大入秦和引硫济金工程,引水总量将达到12.33×10⁸ m³,占大通河多年平均径流量28.16×10⁸ m³的43.8%,对河川径流的影响十分显著. 至2011年,大通河上已建成梯级电站34座,洪水期电站同时泄水会瞬间加大河道流量,枯水期蓄引水又使减水河段水量减少. 梯级水电站群无序蓄放水使洪水过程由天然的平稳状态转变为人工干预的剧烈变化状态,上下游洪峰不对应,对下游地区的防洪安全产生极大威胁. 过度的水能水资源开发,使大通河中下游部分自然河段出现淹没、断流,水生物和两岸的植物萎缩,水环境污染加重,对生态环境产生负面影响. 建议实行流域水资源统一管理,对梯级电站下泄水量统一调度,在减水河段预留必须的生态基流,确保河道内外生态用水;加强河道水位、流量、泥沙、水环境、水生物监测,为流域防汛、水资源管理、生态环境保护等提供决策依据.     

A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis model for earthquake vulnerability assessment using Choquet integral and game theory

Developing an accurate model for discharge estimation techniques of the ungauged river basin is a crucial challenge in water resource management especially in under-development regions. This article is a thorough review of the historical improvement stages of this topic to understand previous challenges that faced researchers, the shortfalls of methods and techniques, how researchers prevailed and what deficiencies still require solutions. This revision focuses on data-driven approaches and GIS-based methods that have improved the accuracy of estimation of hydrological variables, considering their advantages and disadvantages. Past studies used artificial intelligence and geo-statistical methods to forecast the runoff at ungauged river basins, and mapping the spatial distribution has been considered in this study. A recommendation for future research on the potential of a hybrid model utilizing both approaches is proposed and described.