Comparison of seismotectonic peculiarities of Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai

The paleoseismogeological studies within the two representative segments of fold systems in the Altai mobile belt (Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai) have been carried out. These studies revealed the primary seismodislocations (seismic ruptures) of both the ancient historic and prehistoric strongest earthquakes. Based on amplitudes of single displacements (reverse fault and normal fault motions were 0.5–1.6 m) and with the significant strike slip component (more than 1.5 m) taken into account, the magnitude of ancient events in the Altai Mountains was determined at approximately 7.5. The recurrence period is 1400 years on average for the M = 7.0 events and 2100 years for the M = 7.5 ones. In the western Mongolian Altai, reverse fault motions were up to 2 m, corresponding to an earthquake magnitude of about 8.0 (an analog with the 1931 Fuyun earthquake). The recurrence period for the strongest earthquakes in Mongolian Altai was longer than that for the Altai Mountains, about 3000 years. This can be explained by higher magnitude values for western Mongolian Altai. It also can be concluded that the seismic regimes of the Altai Mountains and Mongolian Altai remained almost unchanged during the entire Holocene.     

Seismic Activity and Structures of the Crust and Upper Mantle in the Areas of Source Zones of the Largest Earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan Region

The results of studies of the shear wave attenuation field in source zones of the 2003 Chuya, 1970 Ureg-Nur, 1991 Busingol, 2011 Sayan, and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are presented. Attenuation fields in these source zones include blocks with a high Q-factor and linear weakened zones. The surface ruptures from the mainshocks of the 2003 Chuya and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are located in the zones of strong attenuation. Epicenters of the mainshocks are located where the maximum contrast in attenuation is observed. In the source zones of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region or near them, the zones similar to so-called seimogenic bodies described in the literature are found. These objects tend to linear zones with high attenuation and are characterized by an increased density of deepened earthquakes and also by deformations of near-vertical elongation. The obtained data suggest that the fluid factor could play certain role in the occurrence of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region.     

The characteristics of the shear-wave attenuation field in the Altai lithosphere and their relationship to seismicity

The short-period S-wave attenuation field has been mapped for the lithosphere of the Altai and adjacent areas in Mongolia and southern Siberia. A total of approximately 500 earthquake seismograms were used. These were recorded at the Makanchi and Ulan-Bator stations at distances of ~300–1900 km. It is shown that the attenuation of shear waves is much stronger in the west of the area of study compared with the east. A V-shaped band of high attenuation in the upper mantle has been identified in the west of the area where the epicenters of the magnitude 6.9 1990 Zaisan and the magnitude 7.3 2003 Chuya earthquakes were situated; a similar band extends northwestward to the west of Lake Ubsu Nur. The attenuation is comparatively low in the rupture zones of large (М ≥ 7.0) pre-1970 earthquakes. It was concluded that fluid-charged zones are formed in the lithosphere prior to large earthquakes in the Altai, as well as in other areas of Central Asia. Following large seismic events, the fluids were rising into the crust from the upper mantle during a few tens of years, thus reducing the attenuation of Sn waves. We have identified zones of high attenuation with no significant earthquakes being recorded there during historical time. It is our opinion that earthquake precursory processes may be occurring in these zones.     

则木河断裂带北段地震地貌及古地震研究

地震形成的构造微地貌是地震破裂在地表的直接证据,因此微地貌分析是古地震研究中的一种有效的方法。本文通过对则木河断裂北段大箐梁子一带发现的断层陡坎、断错冲沟、“搓衣板”地貌及坡中谷等地震地貌的研究,发现该断裂自晚更新世晚期以来至少发生过四次强震,其中历史上有记载的两次地震在地貌上也有所反映,说明在则木河断裂带上,强震亦具有在原地重复发生的特点。全新世以来,7级以上强震在原地复发的最小间隔约为1000年,其平均间隔约为1800年     

On a more precise assessment of seismic hazards for the city of Ulaanbaatar,Mongolia

The recent geological, geophysical, and paleoseismic research of the Hustai, Emeelt, and Gunjiin active seismogenic faults in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar provided evidence of prehistoric seismic events there. In particular, dislocations of two fault-forming paleo-earthquakes were revealed in the Gunjiin tectonic zone. The shocks occurred in the Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene. The presence of ruptures, initially identified by morphological characteristics, was proven by trenching studies and materials of geophysical profiles. The magnitudes of the ancient earthquakes are estimated to be 6.5–7.0. The obtained results provide grounds for reassessment of the possible level of seismic hazards for the territory of Ulaanbaatar to at least 8.     

Millennium recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes on the Qingchuan fault,northeastern segment of the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt,China

The 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan produced a ～285–300-km-long coseismic surface rupture zone, including a 60-km-long segment along the Qingchuan fault, the northeastern segment of the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt (LSTB), Sichuan Basin, central China. Field investigations, trench excavations, and radiocarbon dating results reveal that (i) the Qingchuan fault is currently active as a seismogenic fault, along which four morphogenic earthquakes including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the past ca. 3500 years, suggesting an average millennium recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes in the late Holocene; (ii) the most recent event prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake took place in the period between AD 1400 and AD 1100; (iii) the penultimate paleoseismic event occurred in the period around 2000 years BP in the Han Dynasty (206 BC–AD 220); (iv) the third paleoseismic event occurred in the period between 900 and 1800 BC; and (v) at least three seismic faulting events occurred in the early Holocene. The present results are comparable with those inferred in the central and southwestern segments of the LSTB within which the Wenchuan magnitude earthquakes occurred in a millennium recurrence interval, that are in contrast with previous estimates of 2000–10,000 years for the recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes within the LSTB and thereby necessitating substantial modifications to existing seismic hazard models for the densely populated region at the Sichuan region.     

analysis about the minimum magnitude earthquake associated with surface ruptures

Statistical study of earthquakes in the past, due to the small-medium size magnitude earthquake associated with surface rupture are rare, considers that only the earthquakes beyond magnitude 6 1/2 could produce surface ruptures in the most cases. Identification of paleoseismic events is also often based on this assumption. In this paper, we summarized 56 historical moderate size earthquakes worldwide, which have clearly documented about surface ruptures from 1950 to 2014.Results show that the magnitude lowest limit of the earthquake associated with surface rupture may be lower than the 6 1/2 , probably is about 5, even can be as low as 3.6 under extreme conditions. Additionally, from the view of theory and practice, this paper explored the effect of control factors on surface rupture, so as to indicate that the shallow focal depth is one of the most important factors for small-medium size earthquake associated with surface rupture, also included are the high heat flow values, tensile tectonic environment and active fault with weak friction strength. Although the probability that small magnitude earthquake produces surface rupture is low, it is not impossible. In the interpretation of paleoearthquake events, it also cannot overgeneralize that the corresponding earthquake magnitude must be 6.5 or greater as long as the fracture appeared, while ignoring the possibility of some moderate size earthquakes.     

PALEOSEISMIC RECORDS OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CROSS-BASIN FAULT IN THE SALT LAKE PULL-APART BASIN AND CASCADE RUPTURE EVENTS ON THE HAIYUAN FAULT

Cascade rupture events often occur along large strike-slip fault zone.The 1920 AD M 8¹/₂ earthquake ruptured all 3 segments of the Haiyuan Fault,and the Salt Lake pull-apart basin is the boundary between the west and middle segment of the fault.The data of trenching and drilling reveal 7 events occurring since last stage of late Pleistocene,and the two youngest events are associated with the historical records of 1092 AD (possibly) and 1920 AD respectively.These events are all large earthquakes with magnitude M>8,and the recurrence of them is characterized by earthquake clusters alternating with a single event.Now it is in the latest cluster which may last about 1000 years.Comparison of the paleoseismic sequence of this study and previous results reveals that the cross-basin fault in the Salt Lake pull-apart basin does not always rupture when cascade rupture events occur along the Haiyuan Fault,and likely ruptures only when the magnitude of the events is large (maybe M>8).Though there are many advantages in paleoseismic study in pull-apart basin,we should avoid getting the paleoseismic history of major strike-slip fault zones only depending on the rupture records of inner faults in pull-apart basins with large scale (maybe a width more than 3km).     

Ring structures of seismicity in central Tien Shan and Dzungaria: Possible precursory processes of large earthquakes

It is shown that episodes of comparative seismic quiescence that lasted about 20–25 years in the areas of study alternated with intervals of sharply increased seismicity as series of large (M ≥ 6.9) earthquakes occurred during two to three decades. Since no M ≥ 6.6 earthquake has occurred in the area for as long as 21 years after the 1992 Susamyr event, middle-term prediction would require identification of zones of imminent large earthquakes. More reliable identification of such zones rests on data relating to inhomogeneities in the field of S-wave attenuation in the lithosphere, as well as on the characteristics of ring structures of seismicity. Such structures are formed as zones of seismic quiescence that are bounded by M ? Mth earthquake epicenters, where Mth is the threshold magnitude value. Correlative relationships were previously derived, lgL(Mw) and Mth(Mw), for events with different focal mechanisms (L is the length of the longer axis of a seismicity ring and Mw is the magnitude of the associated large earthquake). These relationships were used to estimate the Mw of large events that can occur in these ring structures. The greatest earthquake with Mw ? 7.5 is probably about to occur in southern Tien Shan, east of the 1949 Khait earthquake rupture. A smaller event (Mw ～ 7.0) can occur in the Kyrgyz Range area. Still smaller earthquakes probably have their precursory areas north and east of Lake Issyk-Kul, as well as in Dzungaria.     

HOLOCENE PALAEOSEISMOLOGIC RECORD AND RUPTURE BEHAVIOR OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT

The Xianshuihe Fault, the boundary of Bayan Har active tectonic block and Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, is one of the most active fault zones in the world. In the past nearly 300 years, 9 historical earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 7 have been recorded. Since 2008, several catastrophic earthquakes, such as Wenchuan M_S8 earthquake, Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake and Lushan M_S7 earthquake, have occurred on the other Bayan Har block boundary fault zones. However, only the Kangding M_S6.3 earthquake in 2014 was documented on the Xianshuihe Fault. Thus, the study of surface deformation and rupture behavior of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary on the Xianshuihe Fault is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of this fault, and even the entire western Sichuan region. On the basis of the former work, combined with our detailed geomorphic and geological survey, we excavated a combined trench on the Qianning segment of Xianshuihe fault zone which has a long elapse time. Charcoal and woods in the trench are abundant. 30 samples were dated to constrain the ages of the paleoseismic events. Five events were identified in the past 9  000 years, whose ages are:8070-6395 BC, 5445-5125 BC, 4355-4180 BC, 625-1240 AD and the Qianning earthquake in 1893. The large earthquake recurrence behavior on this segment does not follow the characteristic earthquake recurrence model. The recurrence interval is 1000~2000 years in early period and in turn there is a quiet period of about 5 000 years after 4355-4180 BC event. Then it enters the active period again. Two earthquakes with surface rupture occurred in the past 1000 years and the latest two earthquakes may have lower magnitude. The left-lateral coseismic displacement of the 1893 Qianning earthquake is about 2.9m.     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.     

Detailed paleoseismic history of the Hinagu fault zone revealed by the high-density radiocarbon dating and trenching survey across a surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,Kyushu, Japan

The NE-trending Hinagu fault zone, length 81 km, is one of the major active faults in Kyushu, Japan. From north to south, it is divided into three segments based on geomorphic features and paleoseismic behavior: the Takano-Shirahata, Hinagu, and Yatsushiro Sea segments. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake produced a 6-km-long surface rupture with a dextral strike-slip displacement on the northern part of the Takano-Shirahata segment. Surface rupture, a faint east-side-up flexure with a vertical offset of less than 8 cm, was observed near the middle of the Takano-Shirahata segment. To examine past surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Takano-Shirahata segment, including rupture frequency and timing, we conducted a paleoseismic study with boring and trenching at Yamaide. A trench across the surface rupture exposed multiple fault strands associated with multiple surface-rupturing events that deformed several strata of fine-grained sediments. By structural and stratigraphic interpretation, high-density radiocarbon dating and tephra analysis, and Bayesian modeling, we constrained the timing of seven events, Events 1–7, to 0.84–1.25, 1.31–7.06, 9.99–11.0, 10.8–12.1, 12.0–13.0, 14.2–15.1, and before 14.8 kcal BP. Slip during Events 1–6 was obviously larger than the 2016 slip. The estimated average recurrence interval was about 2596–2860 years, but the interval between Events 2 and 3 was much longer than other intervals. Moreover, the vertical throw associated with Event 2 was larger than that of other events. This implies that the Takano-Shirahata segment has a period with rare larger earthquakes and a period with frequent smaller earthquakes. Some events might have produced ruptures on both the Takano-Shirahata and the northern part of the Hinagu segments simultaneously or in a short time. The variety of recurrence intervals suggests that the seismic activity has been affected by one or both activities of the Futagawa fault zone and the Hinagu segment.     

Paleoseismogeological Investigations in a “Seismic Gap” in the Northwest Caucasus Compared to the West Himalayan Region

In this article we have compared the results of seismotectonic and paleoseismogeologic investigations for representative segments of the two fold systems of the Alpine-Himalayan mobile belt (in the North- west Caucasus and West Himalayas). It has been found that during the previously identified “seismic gaps,” in both cases, we are dealing with primary dislocations (seismic ruptures) of ancient historical and prehistoric strong earthquakes. According to estimations, the magnitude of one-act seismogenic displacements in the first region was about 6.5-7.0 m, and the recurrence period ranges from 500 to 1500 years on average. In the West Himalayas, the overthrust displacements along the ruptures were 6-7 m, which corresponds to an 8.0-magnitude earthquake. At the same time, the recurrence period of strong earthquakes during a seismic gap in the Himalayas was 500-1000 years, which is similar to that in the Caucasus. The data collected also demonstrate the correct preliminary estimation of the seismic potential of zones of seismic quiescence in both the studied fold systems.     

巴颜喀拉块体东边界千年破裂历史与2008年汶川、2013年芦山和2017年九寨沟地震

以巴颜喀拉块体东边界活动构造带为研究区,本文首先分析了该区最近一千多年的地震历史及强震活动随时间的变化,确定了2008年汶川M_S8.0地震、2013年芦山M_S7.0地震和2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震这3次事件在这一强震活动历史中的位置,进而在圈绘长期强震破裂区图像的基础上鉴别主要活动断裂带上的地震空区。结果主要表明:研究区在最近约一千年中经历了一个强震轮回的3个阶段,包括一个平静期的后半部（1630年之前）、1630—1878年之间的过渡期以及1879年以来的强震期。后两个阶段可能代表了该构造带在经过更早、可能二三千年长的平静期或应变积累期之后出现的长达数百年、从“预释放”期（1630—1878年）到“主释放”期（1879年以来）的强震发生过程;在主释放期应变能释放呈明显加速,四川2008年汶川、2013年芦山以及2017年九寨沟地震是发生在主释放期中的3次最新事件,但是由这3次事件的发生还难以判断主释放期是否已经结束;已圈绘出研究区及其邻近地区若干活动断裂段上存在长期缺少大地震破裂的地震空区,未来仍应注意在这些地震空区再次发生大地震的危险性。      

Paleoearthquakes and long-term seismic regime in the Longmenshan fault zone,Southwest China

The collected paleoseismological data about the ancient earthquakes are analyzed for the zone of the Wenchuan earthquake. Four earthquakes with magnitude М = 8.0 occurred over a period of 10000 years and two earthquakes with magnitude 7.5 occurred over 1200 years. The obtained data allowed us to reconstruct the long-term seismic regime within the studied territory by constructing the frequency–magnitude relationship based on the instrumental, historical, and paleoseismological data.     

A slow earthquake

Anomalous earthquakes such as creep events, tsunami earthquakes and silent earthquakes have been reported in the recent literature. In this paper we discuss an anomalous “slow earthquake” that occurred on June 6, 1960 in southern Chile. Although the surface-wave magnitude of this event is only 6.9, it excited anomalously large long-period multiple surface waves with a seismic moment of 5.6 · 10²⁷ dyn cm. The Benioff long-period seismogram of this earthquake recorded at Pasadena shows an extremely long, about 1.5–2 h coda of Rayleigh waves, with a period of 10–25 s. The coda length for other events with a comparable magnitude which occurred in the same region is about 10 min. This observation suggests that the long coda length is due to a long source rupture process which lasted at least 1 h. Although at least 15 distinct events can be identified in the coda, no short-period body waves were recorded corresponding to these, except for the first one. These results suggest that a relatively small (M_s ? 6.9) earthquake triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 h. This event probably occurred on a transform fault on the extension of the Chile Rise and provides important information regarding the nature of the transform fault.     

Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.     

Spatial relation between source regions of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7) on Southern Kamchatka and the distribution of velocities and elastic moduli in the Benioff zone

The presence of a phenomenological relationship between high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and sources of relatively strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6) was established for the first time from the comparison of such earthquakes with the velocity structure of central Kamchatka in the early 1970s. It was found that, in the region with P wave velocities of 8.1–8.5 km/s, the number of M ≥ 6 earthquakes over 1926–1965 was 2.5 times greater than their number in the region with velocities of 7.5–8.0 km/s. Later (in 1979), within the southern Kurile area, Sakhalin seismologists established that regions with V _P = 7.3–7.7 km/s are associated with source zones of M = 7.0–7.6 earthquakes and regions with V _P = 8.1–8.4 km/s are associated with M = 7.9–8.4 earthquakes. In light of these facts, we compared the positions of M = 7.0–7.4 earthquake sources in the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka over the period 1907–1993 with the distribution of regions of high P velocities (8.0–8.5 to 8.5–9.0 km/s) derived from the interpretation of arrival time residuals at the Shipunskii station from numerous weak earthquakes in this zone (more than 2200 events of M = 2.3–4.9) over the period 1983–1995. This comparison is possible only in the case of long-term stability of the velocity field within the Benioff zone. This stability is confirmed by the relationship between velocity parameters and tectonics in the southern part of the Kurile arc, where island blocks are confined to high velocity regions in the Benioff zone and the straits between islands are confined to low velocity regions. The sources of southern Kamchatka earthquakes with M = 7.0–7.4, which are not the strongest events, are located predominantly within high velocity regions and at their boundaries with low velocity regions; i.e., the tendency previously established for the strongest earthquakes of the southern Kuriles and central Kamchatka is confirmed. However, to demonstrate more definitely their association with regions of high P wave velocities, a larger statistics of such earthquakes is required. On the basis of a direct correlation between P wave velocities and densities, the distributions of density, bulk modulus K, and shear modulus μ in the upper mantle of the Benioff zone of southern Kamchatka are obtained for the first time. Estimated densities vary from 3.6–3.9 g/cm³ in regions of high V _P values to 3.0–3.2 g/cm³ for regions of low V _P values. The bulk modulus K in the same velocity regions varies from (1.4–1.8) × 10¹² to (0.8–1.1) × 10¹² dyn/cm², respectively, and the shear modulus μ varies from (0.8–1.0) × 10¹² to (0.5–0.7) × 10¹² dyn/cm², respectively. Examination of the spatial correlation of the source areas of southern Kamchatka M = 7.0–7.4 earthquakes with the distribution of elastic moduli in the Benioff zone failed to reveal any relationship between their magnitudes and the moduli because of the insufficient statistics of the earthquakes used.