1960—2017年太湖流域不同等级降水时空特征

基于太湖流域1960—2017年逐日降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析等方法,分析太湖流域不同等级降水的时空变化特征,并探讨了不同等级降水对年降水的影响。结果表明：1）近60年来,流域小雨发生率最高,为73.55%;年总降水量中,中雨量所占比例最大,为32.05%。小雨发生率呈显著减少趋势,暴雨贡献率呈显著增加趋势。2）太湖流域大雨、暴雨的降水量和降水日数都呈显著增加,小雨日数显著减少,小雨强度、年总降水强度显著增强。3）不同等级降水变化趋势的空间分布存在明显差异。小雨日数与年总降水日数,以及小雨强度与年总降水强度的变化趋势空间格局相一致。中雨日数、大雨日数、暴雨日数变化趋势的空间分布与其对应的降水量变化趋势的空间格局相似。4）R/S分析结果显示,小雨、暴雨、年总降水相关指标（小雨量除外）都表现出较强的持续性,未来变化趋势与过去相一致。5）近60年来,太湖流域年总降水量、降水日数、年总降水强度的变化,分别受中雨量、小雨日数、暴雨量的影响较大。在旱年流域年降水量偏少受大雨量减少的影响较大,而涝年年降水量偏多受暴雨增加的影响较大。     

科尔沁沙地降雨特征分析——以奈曼旗为例

了解降水的当前特征及未来的变化趋势对理解气候变化对区域生态系统的影响具有重要的意义。科尔沁沙地是中国北方农牧交错带的典型区域,年降雨量300~500 mm,对气候变化(特别是降水的变化)非常敏感。对科尔沁沙地沙漠化较为严重的奈曼旗1971-2013年的降水资料进行了分析研究。结果表明:(1)该地区多年平均降水量为338.8 mm,5-9月降雨量占全年降水量的(85.32±7.71)%,5-9月降雨量,年降水量1971-2000年经历了先增加后减少的趋势,2001-2013年有缓慢增加的趋势;同时降水量的年际变异性近10年也呈增加的趋势。(2)5-9月降雨量呈先增大后减小的趋势,在7月最大,为104.2 mm,5月和9月最小(分别为32.7 mm和32.8 mm),月降雨量的年际变率均大于49%;生长季内降雨主要以<10 mm的事件为主,占总降雨事件的64.41%,却仅占总降雨量的16.95%;≥30 mm的降雨事件占总降雨事件的10.96%,占到总降雨量的45.93%,且对总降雨量具有决定性的影响。(3)≥5 mm降雨的平均间隔为9.4 d,以1~10 d为主,占到69.5%,10~20 d(19.5%)的次之;≥30 d的发生频率最小,为3.81%,降雨间隔的年际变异性均呈增加的趋势。(4)生长季降雨日数呈减少的趋势,降雨事件降雨量的变异性与生长季降雨量的变化具有相似性,从2001年开始呈增加的趋势。该地区的降雨量年际变异性强,降雨日数的减少和降雨事件降雨量变异性的增加将提高极端干旱事件发生的频率,可能对该地区的生态系统产生严重影响,加剧该地区的沙漠化发展方向。因此,加强气候变化对生态系统影响的研究,可为合理利用土地资源及调整土地管理方式提供理论依据。     

MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE UNITED STATES

Synoptic data associated with a sample of 554 heavy rainfall events is utilized to carry out a trajectory analysis that identifies the movements of moisture towards regions of heavy rain. Both seasonal and regional variations are found in the moisture trajectories associated with heavy rain events occurring in three regions in the Appalachian study area. Numerous events in the region west of the mountain range are tied to westerly and south-southwesterly circulations that bring moisture from the Mississippi River Valley and the Gulf of Mexico during the warm and cool seasons, respectively. Many events southeast of the mountain range are associated with southerly to southeasterly circulations that advect moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. Because of orographic precipitation enhancement and a good exposure to the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, the southern and southeastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains display high frequencies of heavy rainfall, particularly during the cool season. The interior portions of the mountain range and the adjacent plateau to the northwest, on the other hand, are sheltered from moisture source regions and, therefore, exhibit low heavy rain frequencies. [Key words: precipitation, synoptic climatology, Appalachia.]     

山区地形对暴雨的影响

本文分析了各种不同的自然条件下山区地形对暴雨的影响，指出山区复杂下垫面的热力和动力作用对暴雨有触发、加强或削弱、消亡的影响，在不同的区域地理背景下，地形的影响各不相同，在相同的地理背景下，不同的地形形态对暴雨的影响也有较大差异，地形性强迫抬升和辐合是触发暴雨和使之加强的重要机制，地形性辐射和下沉区对应暴雨的低频区，背区波暴雨过程在西北、华北的冷锋天气过程中较为多见，夏季山区局地对流性暴雨过程在凌晨     

北京地区汛期降雨时空演变特征及城市化影响研究

近年来伴随着城市化的快速发展,世界各大城市汛期极端降雨事件频发,洪涝造成的社会经济损失日益严重,在此背景下,分析中国首都北京各城市化阶段汛期降雨变化显得非常有必要。论文基于30个雨量站1963—2012年汛期降雨资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均以及ArcGIS空间分析等方法对北京汛期降雨时空特征进行分析,通过对比城区和近郊区汛期降雨之间的差异来研究城市化对汛期降雨特征的影响,同时利用北京不同城市化阶段土地利用数据分析了城市下垫面变化对降雨的影响,得出以下主要结论：① 北京各区域汛期降雨时间上整体呈现下降趋势,空间上整体表现为由东向西呈逐渐减小的趋势。② 北京山区最容易发生小雨和中雨;城区则更容易发生中雨以上等级降雨事件,特别是暴雨和大暴雨;近郊区发生小雨和中雨概率与城区接近,但大雨以上等级降雨事件发生可能性小于城区;远郊发生各等级降雨事件的可能性均较大。③ 相对于北部近郊而言,在不同城市化发展阶段,城区降雨比南部近郊更大,但城市化增雨效应在城区与北部近郊之间也有所体现。④ 随着城市化的发展,北京城区和郊区城镇建设用地面积持续增长,原有下垫面条件被改变;由于城区城市化进程比近郊区更快,下垫面条件的改变使得城区汛期降雨量大于近郊区,且更易发生大雨以上等级降雨事件。     

Pore Water Pressure as a Trigger of Shallow Landslides in the Western Ghats of Kerala,India: Some Preliminary Observations from an Experimental Catchment

The Western Ghats mountain chain of Kerala, India, is prone to landslides mainly caused by anthropogenic disturbances and very high rainfall amounts. Here, some initial observations on the apparent relationship among pore water pressure fluctuations, rainfall characteristics, and landslide initiation are presented based on monitoring in an experimental catchment in the upper Tikovil River basin. On June 21 and 22, 2007, continuous rain fell for over 10 hours with a total precipitation of 147 mm, causing three shallow landslides in the catchment. Measurements using piezometers in three hollows of the catchment indicate that the rain spell resulted in the development of high pore water pressure from the beginning of the storm that persisted through the time of occurrence of shallow landslides. The pore water pressure patterns in these monitored hollows are possible representatives of the pore water pressure pattern in the hollows where the landslides initiated. This similarity of response pattern enables such data to be used for the calibration and validation of physically based slope hydrology models coupled with slope stability models.     

Throughfall and its spatial variability in a temperate rainforest of simple structure

There are few throughfall data from southern hemisphere closed-forest, and none from Tasmanian callidendrous cool-temperate rainforest, which has a simpler structure than most primary rainforests. We determined throughfall, measured its local spatial variation, and tested its relationships with rainfall, rainfall intensity, wind speed, canopy dryness, canopy cover, and other structural variables in a cool-temperate callidendrous rainforest in Tasmania. Eighty-two percent of the precipitation was measured as throughfall, which occurred after 2.3 mm of rain fell on dry canopies. The cumulative rainfall in 25 randomly located funnel rain gauges on the forest floor varied from 160 to 567 mm. Canopy cover and other structural variables did not predict the spatial pattern of throughfall. While throughfall in rainfall events was related to rainfall amount and intensity, wind speed did not affect throughfall as a percentage of rainfall. Percentages of throughfall to rainfall over 100 for many low rainfall events may indicate a contribution of fog drip to precipitation on the forest floor. The high local spatial variability in throughfall indicates the mean moisture conditions on the forest floor may not be a good indicator of the potential for localised fire damage.     

中等排放情景下中国未来不同强度降雨对总降雨贡献的区域差异（2006―2100年）

采用RCP6.0中等排放情景下2006―2100年WRF 30 km×30 km日值降雨数据,根据中国气象局颁布的降雨强度等级划分标准,探究了中国不同强度降雨及其对总降雨贡献的变化趋势的空间差异特征。结果表明：1）在雨量上,中等排放情景下2006―2100年中国不同强度降雨呈现出不同的空间分异格局。小雨和中雨自东北向西南呈“高―低―高”的三块式空间分布特征;大雨、暴雨、大暴雨和总暴雨均呈“东南高,西北低”的分异格局;特大暴雨仅东南沿海的部分地区分布较多;总降雨呈“南方高,北方次之,西北低”的空间分异格局。2）在雨量贡献率上,强降雨对总降雨的贡献率普遍存在“东南高,西北低”特征,而弱降雨对总降雨的贡献率恰恰相反;不同强度暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率也有类似分布特征。3）在雨量变化趋势上,中国不同强度降雨变化趋势呈现出不同的空间分异格局,但强降雨呈增加趋势的区域显著多于呈减少趋势的区域。4）在雨量贡献率变化趋势上,强（弱）降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加（减少）趋势的区域占主导,强降雨对总降雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的地区明显多于弱降雨。5）在不同强度暴雨对总暴雨贡献率的变化趋势上,大暴雨和特大暴雨对总暴雨的贡献率呈增加趋势的区域明显多于暴雨。预估结果表明,中国东部降雨在朝着极端化方向发展。     

孟加拉湾风暴影响曲靖初夏降水的特征分析

2001～2007年初夏孟加拉湾共发生了6次风暴过程,结合风暴活动期间曲靖地区的降水概况,应用micaps常规气象资料和物理量场对这6次过程的环流背景及水汽、动力条件展开分析,结果表明:初夏孟湾风暴影响曲靖降水有3个较典型的环流类型,即与冷空气配合型、孟湾风暴云团北上引发强对流降水型以及孟湾风暴登陆减弱变性成南支东移影响型;孟湾风暴活动期间,90°E～120°E,15°N～30°N区域存在位置基本对应的东北-西南向强西南风速带、水汽通量大值带和强水汽通量辐合带,说明风暴的活动为云南降水提供了充足的水汽和动力条件。     

昆明市不同等级降水日数的时空分布特征

采用线性趋势法,Mann-Kendall检验的方法,分析了近42年（1971-2012年）昆明市12个测站逐日降水资料的时空分布特征和变化规律。昆明市的小雨日数占总雨日数的比重最大,总雨日数的减少主要是由于小雨日数的减少所致。2001年后降水的减少趋势更加明显,且在2009年后出现极端化发展的趋势。全市年总雨日数及不同等级降水日数分布不均匀,存在两个多雨日中心。各站年总降水日数和小雨日数均呈减少趋势,但是东川不显著;中雨、大雨和暴雨日数大部以缓慢减少为主,部分有所增加,但变化趋势并不明显。     

A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.     

A Synoptic Evaluation of Frequencies and Intensities of Extreme Three-and 24-Hour Rainfall in Louisiana*

This research classifies extreme three-hour and 24-hour rainfall events in Louisiana by synoptic weather types (Frontal, Gulf Tropical Disturbance, and Air Mass). These classes were used to analyze differences in frequencies and intensities of extreme rainfall. Significant differences were found in the storm frequencies by weather type. However, no significant differences were detected in rainfall intensities between weather types during either duration. These findings have a bearing on statistical procedures associated with estimating storm probabilities in the region.     

近35 年青藏高原雨量和雨日的变化特征

利用青藏高原1971-2005 年49 个气象台站逐日雨量和雨日资料, 分析了青藏高原年、 季雨量和雨日变化趋势。结果表明, 近35 年西藏大部分地区年雨量、雨日呈现显著增加趋 势, 而青海省大部分地区雨量、雨日却呈减少趋势。夏半年, 高原上雨日减少, 雨量增加, 说明降水越来越集中, 降水强度在增加。冬半年, 高原上雨日、雨量均在增加。高原夏半年小雨(0.1~4.9 mm) 雨日减少, 雨量增加; 小雨(5.0~9.9 mm) 和中雨的雨日和雨量均呈增加趋 势, 大雨以上的雨日和雨量均减少。冬半年, 青藏高原小雪、中雪、大雪不同量级日数和雪 日的平均雪量均呈增加趋势; 暴雪日和雪量变化均不明显。     

Lower Tropospheric Warm Air Advection Patterns Associated with Heavy Rainfall over the Appalachian Region*

A synoptic climatology of warm season heavy rainfall is developed from patterns of 850 mb thermal advection over the Appalachian region. Heavy rain events are categorized according to the position and orientation of a warm air advection (WAA) ridge, a feature found in nearly two-thirds of the events. Numerous study events occur within the conditionally unstable region of the WAA ridge. In fact, numerous occurrences of heavy rainfall are tied to a superpositioning of a WAA and air mass instability ridge in the vicinity or upstream of the heavy rain area.     

基于CLDAS融合降水的中国降雨侵蚀力研究

气象站和卫星降雨资料估算降雨侵蚀力时存在无法反映空间异质性且精度差的问题,基于CLDAS多源融合降水,利用EI₆₀模型从不同的时空尺度对中国的降雨侵蚀力进行评估,并结合降雨量、侵蚀性降雨次数、侵蚀密度等指标,探讨降雨对土壤侵蚀的潜在作用。结果表明：（1） CLDAS降雨侵蚀力与地面实测数据在不同的时间尺度均有良好的回归关系,相关系数达到0.8以上,与CMORPH降雨侵蚀力相比,其相对误差显著降低,可以准确反映全国范围的降雨侵蚀力季节性变异。（2） 在2001—2020年,不同雨量区的降雨侵蚀力、降雨量和侵蚀性降雨次数的变化趋势基本一致,高雨量区的年际变化波动剧烈,侵蚀性降雨次数和暴雨过程协同影响降雨侵蚀力的大小。（3） 空间上,中国的降雨侵蚀力值的特点为东南沿海地区高、西北内陆地区低。时间上,侵蚀性降雨集中在5—8月,夏、秋两季对土壤造成的侵蚀影响更大。（4） 通过对年降雨量、年侵蚀密度和年暴雨量进行分区定量分析,结果表明暴雨量与侵蚀密度成正相关关系,即年降雨量一定,暴雨事件越多,降雨侵蚀密度越大。     

降水变化对中国南方强酸雨分布的影响

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the re-gional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. (1) The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SO2 and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. (2) Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to se-vere acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. (3) The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer ex-panded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.     

云南滑坡泥石流灾害的气象成因与监测

根据云南滑坡泥石流灾害资料，分析了其形成环境与分布特征，给出了典型降水滑坡泥石流灾害事件，研究了滑坡泥石流灾害与气象环境的关系。云南滑坡泥石流灾害主要出现在盛夏7～8月，主要影响天气系统有切变线、冷锋、西风槽、西南涡、孟加拉湾风暴、南海西行台风和两高辐合区。诱发滑坡泥石流灾害的前期降水类型有3种，即暴雨型，中～大雨型和连阴雨型。得出了云南滑坡泥石流发生的区域临界雨量指标，提出了滑坡泥石流灾害的气象监测预警方法。     

Effects of precipitation variation on severe acid rain in southern China

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s,but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain.We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China,and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data.The results are as follows.(1) The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SO2 and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004.(2) Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004.With an abrupt change in 1999,the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004.(3) The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China.An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation,the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China.The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall.On the other hand,the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006.Therefore,the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.     

用小时降雨资料估算降雨侵蚀力的方法

降雨侵蚀力是进行土壤流失量预报的基本因子,EI₃₀是迄今得到广泛应用的定量指标,但它的计算需要降雨过程资料,使其推广应用受到很大限制。用自动气象观测提供的高精度等间隔降雨资料,代替降雨过程资料,是估算降雨侵蚀力指标的首选。国际上对此已有研究,发现有很大的地区差异性。为此,本文在水蚀严重的中国东部季风区选择5个代表站点,共456次降雨过程资料,建立了用60 min等间隔雨量资料估算次降雨侵蚀力的计算方法。研究结果表明:直接用60 min等间隔资料计算的降雨侵蚀力指标值,与用降雨过程资料计算的结果相比,降雨动能E差异较小,主要差异体现在最大30 min雨强I₃₀上,由此导致降雨侵蚀力指标EI₃₀的差异也十分明显。利用自动气象观测小时雨量资料计算降雨侵蚀力指标值,通过公式(EI₃₀)_bp=1.730(EI₃₀)₆₀转换,可以较精确地估算全国降雨侵蚀力,与用日、月和年降雨量资料的估算值相比,能够提高土壤侵蚀预报精度。     

杭嘉湖地区城市发展对降水影响的分析

利用杭嘉湖地区长系列逐日降水资料,采用统计分析、线性回归、R/S分析、集中度和集中期等方法,探讨城市化发展条件下的降水变化规律。结果表明:随着城市化的快速发展,在年雨量、汛期雨量、大雨和暴雨日数上,杭嘉湖地区城区降水的增多趋势较郊区明显,城郊降水差距在增大,城市"增雨效应"显著;城郊年雨量的集中度均具有减少的趋势,但郊区递减速度稍大于城区;而冬季雨量则呈现出区域性特征,且城市化对小雨和中雨日数的影响仍具有一定的不确定性,反映出城市化对降雨影响的复杂性。