GEOGRAPHY AND THE LESSONS FROM EL NIÑO*

Recognized for years as a major environmental disruption, El Niño generated intense public interest in 1982–1983. During its last occurrence, this phenomenon, which develops in the tropical Pacific and usually affects rimlands of the Pacific basin, exceeded its boundaries and its effects were transmitted to continental North America, Europe, Africa and East Asia. Notwithstanding its vast areal extent, the interest of geographers in El Niño events, past and recent, has been comparatively less than that demonstrated by natural scientists and ecologists: little has been accomplished to place these climatic-ecological crises within global perspective. Lessons from El Niño include the acknowledgement of new concepts of climatic transitivity, ocean dynamics and energy exchanges that must find a place within the conceptual wealth of geography if this science intends to keep up with the rapid progress of other geosciences.     

REVISITING RIO DE JANEIRO AND SÃO PAULO*

ABSTRACT. Contrasting models of urban development characterize the historical-geographical evolution of Brazil's two leading cities, viewed in an updating of the seminal 1933 article by Preston James. Native to Rio de Janeiro is a distinctive Luso-Brazilian style of irregular coastal urbanization, whereas SÃo Paulo displays a more uniform, modern type of inland commercial-industrial expansion. Even as Rio de Janeiro and SÃo Paulo sprawl today to form a virtual megalopolis in southeastern Brazil, they retain distinguishing roles in the national city system. Both metropolises are experiencing increasing functional decentralization and socioeconomic polarization, but in their own characteristic fashions. Generalized models of “Latin American city structure” are of limited value, unless they take into account such significant historical-geographical variations in urban form.     

CHANGES IN U.S. NATIONAL MOBILITY LEVELS*

This paper investigates the decline in the national mobility level that occurred during 1970-1983. The effects of generation size are discussed in detail; bigger generations may move at lower rates because of the increased competition for jobs and housing. The changing age composition of the population will imply further mobility declines during coming decades if age-specific mobility rates remain constant. A consideration of anticipated changes in the size of the young adult cohort suggests that the national mobility rate may increase slightly over the next decade, before beginning a relatively modest decline during 1995-2040.     

可持续发展研究态势析评

可持续发展已成为当今国际社会论坛的主题。本文通过历史回顾和现状分析,从可持续发展的概念、内涵、评价准则和指标,以及研究方法和社会实践方面,比较系统地分析了国内外有关可持续发展理论研究的成就和动向,以及存在的问题,并探讨了我国今后的研究重点和实践对策。     

40 ℃时MgO·2B2O3-18%MgSO4-H2O过饱和溶液结晶动力学研究

针对我国盐湖硼资源的特点 ,模拟合成MgO·2B2 O3-1 8%MgSO4 -H2 O过饱和溶液 ,在 40℃恒温静置条件下 ,跟踪结晶动力学过程。拟合并给出结晶动力学方程 ,同时对结晶机制进行了探讨。析出固相采用X射线粉末衍射、红外光谱和热分析进行物相鉴定。     

U.S. Bank Failures and Regional Economic Structure*

U.S. commercial bank failures approached historically high levels in the 1980s. The collapse of such institutions can have severe impacts on local economies, disrupting the supply of available investment credit. This paper situates bank failures within the broader transformation of global capitalism in the late 20th century. Next, it reviews the causes of bank insolvency, including mismanagement, deregulation, the glutted commercial real estate market, and depressed agricultural and petroleum-dependent local economies. It then illustrates multiple aspects of the spatial distribution of bank failures. A pooled time-series regression analysis, using primary causal variables as well as location quotients of state output in four industrial sectors, indicates that with the vital exception of petroleum, and to a lesser extent services, regional economic structure is not strongly related to bank failures. This finding likely reflects the structural and spatial transformation of the industry as it adapted to the highly competitive conditions of the last decade.     

AMENITY MIGRATION IN THE U.S. SIERRA NEVADA*

ABSTRACT. Since 1960 California's Sierra Nevada counties have ranked among the regions with the strongest relative population growth in the state. Reassessment of peripheral areas has been the main force driving population and settlement growth in the central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada, termed “amenity migration” or “counterurbanization.” This study analyzes the impacts of amenity migrants—“urban refugees”—on socioeconomic conditions in high‐mountain regions. We define these regions as the “High Sierra,” comprising zones at elevations more than 1,800 meters above sea level. People who migrate to the High Sierra tend to be white and well educated, with considerable household earnings. Unlike the population in the foothills, these migrants are not senior citizens. Their demand for periodic or permanent residences has caused housing prices to increase enormously. As a result, a majority of homes are now priced well beyond the reach of local salaries, which may lead to potential conflict between locals and newcomers. The massive settlement expansion in high‐mountain areas requires a new approach to land‐use planning, one that takes functional regions into account. Therefore, it is expedient to reassess existing jurisdictional boundaries.     

Commentary on Michael Pacione's 'Urban Liveability: A Review'

From an exploratory factor analysis of the 2001 Hong Kong census, it was found that after the political changeover, the underlying determinants of the social dimensions were education, ethnicity, age, occupation, housing, and household size characteristics, with education being the most important, reflecting a new division of labor that has created occupational polarization and income inequality. When compared with factor analyses of the 1971 and 1981 data, a high degree of continuity is present in the social landscape. However, cluster analysis based on these determinants revealed a significant spatial mixing of population with different demographic, social, and economic characteristics, so much so that the distinction between the traditional rural areas (the New Territories) and the traditional urban areas (Hong Kong Island and Kowloon) has become blurred. Nonetheless, a strong spatial polarization has also emerged. The driving force of this spatial integration and demographic/socioeconomic change was the population decentralization policy and the new airport construction which have transformed Hong Kong into an efficient, unified, polycentric city, an international financial center that services the global economy.     

基于生态水文调控的流域综合管理研究综述

在全球气候变化与人类活动的双重影响下,流域水与生态等问题将更加突出、相互交织,是当前亟需解决的影响和制约世界各国可持续发展的瓶颈问题。基于对流域综合管理概念内涵的理解,以生态水文学理论和基于自然的水资源解决方案的理念为指导,提出了基于生态水文调控的流域综合管理概念与内涵,着重阐述了其核心内容：① 理论方法——流域生态水文调控原理与方法;② 应用实践——面向生态-社会协调可持续的流域水资源综合管理。将丰富和发展流域综合管理理论方法与技术体系,提升流域综合管理的实效性和整体水平。     

Ebbs and Flows in Recent U.S. Interstate Migration*

Interstate migration exchanges in the United States are temporally and spatially transitory. Both the early and mid-1980s exhibited significant fluctuations in the origins and destinations of U.S. migrants, while the late 1980s and early 1990s were even more unstable. Regions once favored by interstate movers such as the West and the South, while remaining attractive, showed evidence of declining favor in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, numerous states in the national interior regained their attractiveness, including several that gained net migrants for the first time in decades. California exhibited a major turnaround in its migration, perturbing the entire U.S. migration system.     

THE A.D. 1300 EVENT IN THE PACIFIC BASIN*

ABSTRACT. Around a.d. 1300 the entire Pacific Basin (continental Pacific Rim and oceanic Pacific Islands) was affected by comparatively rapid cooling and sea‐level fall, and possibly increased storminess, that caused massive and enduring changes to Pacific environments and societies. For most Pacific societies, adapted to the warmer, drier, and more stable climates of the preceding Medieval Climate Anomaly (a.d. 750–1250), the effects of this A.D. 1300 Event were profoundly disruptive, largely because of the reduction in food resources available in coastal zones attributable to the 70–80‐centimeter sea‐level fall. This disruption was manifested by the outbreak of persistent conflict, shifts in settlements from coasts to refugia inland or on unoccupied offshore islands, changes in subsistence strategies, and an abrupt end to long‐distance cross‐ocean interaction during the ensuing Little Ice Age (a.d. 1350–1800). The A.D. 1300 Event provides a good example of the disruptive potential for human societies of abrupt, short‐lived climate changes.