NOAA系列卫星高能粒子数据一致性统计分析

顶部电离层是低轨道卫星的运行空间,是能量粒子沉降的重要区域,认识这个空间的能量粒子分布特征对研究各种空间天气事件、地震、火山以及其他人类活动引起的扰动具有重要的现实意义.本文利用位于顶部电离层的5颗NOAA系列卫星数据,统计研究了100～300keV的电子和80～2500keV的质子的全球分布特征.研究发现:高能电子和质子主要分布在两极辐射带和南大西洋异常区,两极辐射带观测到的高能电子通量比南大西洋异常区高几倍到一个数量级,而质子则相反;高能电子在两极辐射带地区通量分布具有不对称性,主要表现为在北辐射带西经75°到东经90°存在低值区,相对应的是粒子主要聚集在其磁共轭区,且其边界和南大西洋异常区相交;高能质子两极辐射带对称分布,在南半球东经0°至东经50°存在高值区.利用概率密度统计分析发现,各颗卫星在南大西洋异常区和两极辐射带的高能电子和高能质子通量总体上均呈正态分布.在南大西洋异常区,NOAA-15观测到的高能电子通量比其他卫星的低,NOAA-16观测的高能电子通量比其他卫星的高,各卫星的高能质子观测结果基本相同.在两极辐射带,各卫星观测的高能电子通量结果基本相同,NOAA-18和...     

Origin and structures of solar eruptions I: Magnetic flux rope

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are the large-scale and most energetic eruptive phenomena in our solar system and able to release a large quantity of plasma and magnetic flux from the solar atmosphere into the solar wind. When these high-speed magnetized plasmas along with the energetic particles arrive at the Earth, they may interact with the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and seriously affect the safety of human high-tech activities in outer space. The travel time of a CME to 1 AU is about 1–3 days, while energetic particles from the eruptions arrive even earlier. An efficient forecast of these phenomena therefore requires a clear detection of CMEs/flares at the stage as early as possible. To estimate the possibility of an eruption leading to a CME/flare, we need to elucidate some fundamental but elusive processes including in particular the origin and structures of CMEs/flares. Understanding these processes can not only improve the prediction of the occurrence of CMEs/flares and their effects on geospace and the heliosphere but also help understand the mass ejections and flares on other solar-type stars. The main purpose of this review is to address the origin and early structures of CMEs/flares, from multi-wavelength observational perspective. First of all, we start with the ongoing debate of whether the pre-eruptive configuration, i.e., a helical magnetic flux rope (MFR), of CMEs/flares exists before the eruption and then emphatically introduce observational manifestations of the MFR. Secondly, we elaborate on the possible formation mechanisms of the MFR through distinct ways. Thirdly, we discuss the initiation of the MFR and associated dynamics during its evolution toward the CME/flare. Finally, we come to some conclusions and put forward some prospects in the future.     

ERNE observations of energetic particles associated with Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in April and May, 1997

Two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which were most effective in energetic (1–50 MeV) particle acceleration during the first 18 months since the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) launch, occurred on April 7 and May 12, 1997. In the analysis of these events we have deconvoluted the injection spectrum of energetic protons by using the method described by Anttila et al. In order to apply the method developed earlier for data of a rotating satellite (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, GOES), we first had to develop a method to calculate the omnidirectional energetic particle intensities from the observations of Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electrons (ERNE), which is an energetic particle detector onboard the three-axis stabilized SOHO spacecraft. The omnidirectional intensities are calculated by fitting an exponential pitch angle distribution from directional information of energetic protons observed by ERNE. The results of the analysis show that, compared to a much faster and more intensive CMEs observed during the previous solar maximum, the acceleration efficiency decreases fast when the shock propagates outward from the Sun. The particles injected at distances <0.5 AU from the Sun dominate the particle flux during the whole period, when the shock propagates to the site of the spacecraft. The main portion of particles injected by the shock during its propagation further outward from the Sun are trapped around the shock, and are seen as an intensity increase at the time of the shock passage.     

Particle acceleration and transport in the inner heliosphere

In the solar system, our Sun is Nature’s most efficient particle accelerator. In large solar flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), protons and heavy ions can be accelerated to over ~GeV/nucleon. Large flares and fast CMEs often occur together. However there are clues that different acceleration mechanisms exist in these two processes. In solar flares, particles are accelerated at magnetic reconnection sites and stochastic acceleration likely dominates. In comparison, at CME-driven shocks, diffusive shock acceleration dominates. Besides solar flares and CMEs, which are transient events, acceleration of particles has also been observed in other places in the solar system, including the solar wind termination shock, planetary bow shocks, and shocks bounding the Corotation Interaction Regions (CIRs). Understanding how particles are accelerated in these places has been a central topic of space physics. However, because observations of energetic particles are often made at spacecraft near the Earth, propagation of energetic particles in the solar wind smears out many distinct features of the acceleration process. The propagation of a charged particle in the solar wind closely relates to the turbulent electric field and magnetic field of the solar wind through particle-wave interaction. A correct interpretation of the observations therefore requires a thorough understanding of the solar wind turbulence. Conversely, one can deduce properties of the solar wind turbulence from energetic particle observations. In this article I briefly review some of the current state of knowledge of particle acceleration and transport in the inner heliosphere and discuss a few topics which may bear the key features to further understand the problem of particle acceleration and transport.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: I. Known pdf

Abstract

Two probability density functions (pdf), popular in hydrological analyses, namely the log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL), are discussed with respect to (a) their applicability to hydrological data and (b) the drawbacks resulting from their mathematical properties. This paper—the first in a two-part series—examines a classical problem in which the considered pdf is assumed to be the true distribution. The most significant drawback is the existence of the statistical moments of LG and LL for a very limited range of parameters. For these parameters, a very rapid increase of the skewness coefficient, as a function of the coefficient of variation, is observed (especially for the log-Gumbel distribution), which is seldom observed in the hydrological data. These probability distributions can be applied with confidence only to extreme situations. For other cases, there is an important disagreement between empirical data and theoretical distributions in their tails, which is very important for the characterization of the distribution asymmetry. The limited range of shape parameters in both distributions makes the analyses (such as the method of moments), that make use of the interpretation of moments, inconvenient. It is also shown that the often-used L-moments are not sufficient for the characterization of the location, scale and shape parameters of pdfs, particularly in the case where attention is paid to the tail part of probability distributions. The maximum likelihood method guarantees an asymptotic convergence of the estimators beyond the domain of the existence of the first two moments (or L-moments), but it is not sensitive enough to the upper tails shape.     

Fitting and goodness-of-fit test of non-truncated and truncated power-law distributions

Recently, Clauset, Shalizi, and Newman have proposed a systematic method to find over which range (if any) a certain distribution behaves as a power law. However, their method has been found to fail, in the sense that true (simulated) power-law tails are not recognized as such in some instances, and then the power-law hypothesis is rejected. Moreover, the method does not work well when extended to power-law distributions with an upper truncation. We explain in detail a similar but alternative procedure, valid for truncated as well as for non-truncated power-law distributions, based in maximum likelihood estimation, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, and Monte Carlo simulations. An overview of the main concepts as well as a recipe for their practical implementation is provided. The performance of our method is put to test on several empirical data which were previously analyzed with less systematic approaches. We find the functioning of the method very satisfactory.     

Interrelation between localized energetic particle precipita ion and cold plasma inhomogeneities in the magnetosphere

Situations when localized precipitation of energetic (E > 30 keV) protons and electrons, associated with the development of cyclotron instability in the magnetosphere, is recorded during one satellite pass are identified in the data of particle flux observations on the NOAA-12 low-orbiting satellite. Such events were observed only in the evening sector of the magnetosphere. This precipitation is compared with the data on the cold (E < 10 eV) plasma density obtained on the LANL geostationary satellites. The comparison showed that the precipitation of energetic particles is related to the presence of cold plasma with a density of 20–100 cm^?3 in geostationary orbit in the evening sector of the magnetosphere. The conclusion has been made that the localized precipitation of energetic particles is generated at the edges of small-scale structures of cold plasma, forming the so-called “plasmaspheric tail,” i.e., the cold plasma region extending from the evening plasmapause toward the Sun.     

Understanding CMEs and their source regions

CMEs are an important aspect of coronal and interplanetary dynamics. They can eject large amounts of mass and magnetic fields into the heliosphere which can drive large geomagnetic storms and interplanetary shocks, a key source of solar energetic particles. However, our knowledge of the origins and early development of CMEs at the Sun is limited. CMEs are most frequently associated with erupting prominences and long-enduring X-ray arcades, but sometimes with weak or no observed surface activity. I review some of the well-determined coronal properties of CMEs and what we know about their source regions, including recent studies using Yohkoh, SOHO and radio data. One exciting, new type of observation is of halo-like CMEs which suggest the launch of a geoeffective disturbance toward Earth. Besides their utility for forecasting the arrival at Earth of magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, halo CMEs are important for understanding the development and internal structure of CMEs since we can view their source regions near Sun center and can measure their in-situ characteristics along their central axes.     

Energetic proton precipitation related to ion–cyclotron waves

This brief review summarizes recent findings related to particle precipitation associated with electromagnetic ion–cyclotron (EMIC) waves seen on the ground as geomagnetic Pc1 and IPDP pulsations.Particle precipitation signatures of ion–cyclotron interaction are described as revealed from low-altitude satellite measurements of the energetic proton fluxes as well as from observations of the proton aurora. As a result, localized proton precipitation patterns situated equatorward of the isotropy boundary are disclosed. One of the patterns is a proton precipitation spot in the morning sector, presumably mapped onto plasmapause; another one is an elongated region of the precipitation, presumably mapped onto the plasmaspheric plume.Clear evidence of the pitch-angle scattering associated with the ion–cyclotron wave activity is found near the equatorial plane in the region conjugated with the localized proton precipitation at low altitude.Thus, the revealed precipitation patterns determine the location of the region of intense pitch-angle scattering of energetic protons, and, therefore, their observations can be used to monitor the region of the ion–cyclotron interaction and to study its origin and properties. Some examples of such application of the low-altitude observations of energetic particles are described.     

Investigation on the properties of the relationship between rare and extreme rainfall and flood volumes, under some distributional restrictions

The fact that rainfall data are usually more abundant and more readily regionalized than streamflow data has motivated hydrologists to conceive methods that incorporate the hydrometeorologial information into flood frequency analyses. Some of them, particularly those derived from the French GRADEX method, involve assumptions concerning the relationship between extreme rainfall and flood volumes, under some distributional restrictions. In particular, for rainfall probability distributions exhibiting exponential-like upper tails, it is possible to derive the shape and scale of the probability distribution of flood volumes by hypothesizing the basic properties of such a relationship, under rare and/or extreme conditions. This paper focuses on a parametric mathematical model for the relationship between rare and extreme rainfall and flood volumes under exponentially-tailed distributions. The model is analyzed and fitted to rare and extreme events derived from hydrological simulation of long stochastically-generated synthetic series of rainfall and evaporation for the Indaiá River basin, located in south-central Brazil. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters in order to better understand flood events under rare and extreme conditions. By working with hydrologically plausible hypothetical events, the modeling approach proved to be a useful way to explore extraordinary rainfall and flood events. The results from this exploratory analysis provide grounds to derive some conclusions regarding the relative positions of the upper tails of the probability distributions of rainfall and flood volumes.     

3D particle size distributions from 2D observations: stereology for natural applications

We have developed a general formulation for stereological analysis of particle distributions which is applicable to any particle size or size distribution (not limited to log-normal, unimodal, etc.). We have applied numerical techniques to define intersection probability distributions for any shapes (previously only known for spheres), and quantified the errors involved in using spherical coefficients for various non-spherical particles. This stereological technique is based on knowing the probability distribution of random cross-sections through various particles so that ‘small circle' cross-sections can be subtracted from an observed population to provide the 3D size distribution of particles. The results indicate that the most important parameter controlling calculated size distribution is particle aspect ratio. For a distribution of particles with a specific aspect ratio or range of aspect ratios, variations of particle form (spherical vs. cubic; rectangular vs. elliptical) do not alter the results, so the technique can be applied to a range of particle shapes. Applications can be made in a petrology, volcanology, and other fields, only a few of which can also be treated using expensive X-ray techniques.     

Spatial structure of the plasma sheet boundary layer at distances greater than 180 RE as derived from energetic particle measurements on GEOTAIL

We have analyzed the onsets of energetic particle bursts detected by the ICS and STICS sensors of the EPIC instrument on board the GEOTAIL spacecraft in the deep magnetotail (i.e., at distances greater than 180 RK). Such bursts are commonly observed at the plasma-sheet boundary layer (PSBL) and are highly collimated along the magnetic field. The bursts display a normal velocity dispersion (i.e., the higher-speed particles are seen first, while the progressively lower speed particles are seen later) when observed upon entry of the spacecraft from the magnetotail lobes into the plasma sheet. Upon exit from the plasma sheet a reverse velocity dispersion is observed (i.e., lower-speed particles disappear first and higher-speed particles disappear last). Three major findings are as follows. First, the tailward-jetting energetic particle populations of the distant-tail plasma sheet display an energy layering: the energetic electrons stream along open PSBL field lines with peak fluxes at the lobes. Energetic protons occupy the next layer, and as the spacecraft moves towards the neutral sheet progressively decreasing energies are encountered systematically. These plasma-sheet layers display spatial symmetry, with the plane of symmetry the neutral sheet. Second, if we consider the same energy level of energetic particles, then the H layer is confined within that of the energetic electron, the He⁺⁺ layer is confined within that of the proton, and the oxygen layer is confined within the alpha particle layer. Third, whenever the energetic electrons show higher fluxes inside the plasma sheet as compared to those at the boundary layer, their angular distribution is isotropic irrespective of the Earthward or tailward character of fluxes, suggesting a closed field line topology.     

How are storm time injections different from nonstorm time injections?

One of the key elements of storms and substorms is the injection of energetic particles into the region of near geosynchronous orbit, that is, the sudden flux enhancement in the energy range of tens to hundreds of keV. This paper reports the observational results on how such injection features during storm times are different from those of nonstorm times. We particularly focus on the difference between proton injections and electron injections. Based on a number of storm time injection events that meet our strict selection criteria, we find a notable difference between proton injections and electron injections in the energy-spectral dependence of the flux enhancement averaged over the first 30 min after the injection onset: The average flux enhancement of many protons injections tends to be bigger at higher energy channels than at lower energy channels, but electron injections exhibit the opposite tendency for the energy-spectral dependence of flux enhancement, i.e., average flux enhancement decreasing with increasing energy. We show that this feature is almost unique only for the injection events during the storm main and early recovery phase. It is suggested that any successful scenario intended to model storm time injections should be able to explain this difference between proton injections and electron injections.     

Global distribution of energetic proton precipitations equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes

Based on data of the NOAA POES satellite, the global distribution of the occurrence rate of precipitations of energetic protons (E > 30 keV) equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes has been constructed for the first time. It has been shown that the occurrence rate of proton precipitations inside the zone of anisotropic fluxes is maximum in daytime hours (1100–1600 MLT) at latitudes L = 6–9 and decreases in evening and morning hours. Comparison of the obtained results about proton precipitations with the spatial distribution of the occurrence rate of electromagnetic ion–cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the equatorial magnetosphere according to results of satellite observations demonstrates a close relationship between them. This corroborates that precipitations of energetic protons equatorward of the boundary of isotropic fluxes are a consequence of the development of the ion–cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere.     

Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.     

太阳风湍流和磁层亚暴的一种机制

太阳风的动量涨落将通过磁层边界在磁尾激发磁流体力学波。快磁声波携带扰动能量传到等离子体片中,发展为激波,或者通过激波的相互作用而耗散能量,使等离子体加热。等离子体片中的随机费米加速机制,使麦克斯韦分布尾巴部分的高能量粒子被加速到更高能。在宁静态时,加热、加速与耗散过程平衡。当太阳风的动量或者其涨落较大时,整个加热和加速过程加剧,更多的高能粒子产生,并从等离子体片中逃逸,形成高速的等离子体流注入近地轨道和极区,表现为磁层亚暴过程。利用这种机制,可以解释地球磁层亚暴的定性特征。     

Application of copulas for derivation of drought severity–duration–frequency curves

This study presents copula‐based multivariate probabilistic approach to model severity–duration–frequency (S‐D‐F) relationship of drought events in western Rajasthan, India. Drought occurrences are analysed using standardized precipitation index computed on monthly mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6 months. After testing with a series of probability density functions, the drought variable severity is found to be better represented with log‐normal distribution, whereas duration is well fitted with exponential distribution. Four different classes of bivariate copulas – Archimedean, extreme value, Plackett, and elliptical families are evaluated for modelling joint distribution of drought characteristics. It is observed that the extreme value copula – Gumbel–Hougaard copula – performed better as compared with other classes of copulas, based on results of various statistical tests and upper tail dependence coefficient. The joint distribution obtained from best performing copula is then employed to determine conditional return period and to derive drought severity‐duration‐frequency (S‐D‐F) curves for the study region. The results of the study suggests that the copula method can be used effectively to derive the drought S‐D‐F curves, which can be helpful in planning and adopting suitable drought mitigation strategies in drought‐prone areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用极值顺序统计量对灾害性地震的统计推断

本文引进应用极值顺序统计量推断一个概率分布尾部性质的方法,并介绍了参数估计的方法。文中举例说明如何应用这一理论预测灾害性地震。这种方法比传统极值方法更适用于无季节性变化的数据。     

Relationships between magnetic storms and the Pc1 micropulsations

Using Pc1 data gathered at Ottawa (45.4°N, 75.6°W; L = 3.5) during the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) period, relationships between ssc, Dst, and the occurrence of Pc1 pulsations are examined. It is found that the sudden compressions of the magnetoshere that took place in the postnoon period (13–22 hLT) frequently produced Pc1 pulsations at Ottawa. This pulsational activity took place about 25 to 125 hours after the occurrence of ssc’s of amplitude 5–25 nT and duration 2–6 min. Pc1’s also occur 20 to 40 hours after maximum Dst deviations in the range 50–110 nT, when the ring current has decayed to a considerable extent (5 nT < Dst < 25 nT). In agreement withHeacock andKivinen (1972), it appears that during the storm recovery phase energetic particles of the ring current with anisotropic pitch angle distribution interact with the surrounding cold plasma of the plasmasphere. When stable trapping limit is reached, proton cyclotron instability is triggered and pulsations in the Pc1 period range are generated.     

Power-Law Testing for Fault Attributes Distributions

This paper is devoted to statistical analysis of faults’ attributes. The distributions of lengths, widths of damage zones, displacements and thicknesses of fault cores are studied. Truncated power-law (TPL) is considered in comparison with commonly used simple power-law (PL) (or Pareto) distribution. The maximal likelihood and the confidence interval of the exponent for both PL and TPL are estimated by appropriate statistical methods. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test and the likelihood ratio test with alternative non-nested hypothesis for exponential distribution are used to verify the statistical approximation. Furthermore, the advantage of TPL is proved by Bayesian information criterion. Our results suggest that a TPL is more suitable for describing fault attributes, and that its condition is satisfied for a wide range of fault scales. We propose that using truncated power laws in general might eliminate or relax the bias related to sampling strategy and the resolution of measurements (such as censoring, truncation, and cut effect) and; therefore, the most reliable range of data can be considered for the statistical approximation of fault attributes.