冬季太阳11年周期活动对大气环流的影响

利用气象场的再分析资料和太阳辐射活动资料,对太阳11年周期活动影响北半球冬季(11月~3月)大气环流的过程进行了统计分析和动力学诊断.根据赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡(QBO)的东、西风状态对太阳活动效应进行了分类讨论,结果表明：东风态QBO时,太阳活动效应主要集中在赤道平流层中、高层和南半球平流层,强太阳活动时增强的紫外辐射加热了赤道地区的臭氧层,造成平流层低纬明显增温,同时加强了南半球的Brewer-Dobson(B-D)环流,引起南极高纬平流层温度增加;而北半球中高纬的环流主要受行星波的影响,太阳活动影响很小.西风态QBO时,太阳活动效应在北半球更为重要,初冬时强太阳活动除了加热赤道地区臭氧层外,还抑制了北半球的B-D环流,造成赤道平流层温度增加和纬向风梯度在垂直方向的变化,从而改变了对流层两支行星波波导的强度;冬末时在太阳活动调制下,行星波向极波导增强,B-D环流逐渐恢复,造成北半球极地平流层明显增温,同时伴随着赤道区域温度的下降.     

Simultaneous observations of planetary waves from 30 to 220km

Planetary wave activity at quasi 16-, 10- and 5-day periods has been compared at various altitudes through the middle and upper atmosphere over Halley (76°S, 27°W), Antarctica, during the austral winters of 1997–1999. Observational data from the mesosphere, E-region ionosphere and F-region ionosphere have been combined with stratospheric data from the ECMWF assimilative operational analysis. Fourier and wavelet techniques have shown that the relationship between planetary wave activity at different altitudes is complex and during the winter eastward wind regime does not conform to a simple combination of vertical planetary wave propagation and critical filtering. Strong planetary wave activity in the stratosphere can coincide with a complete lack of wave activity at higher altitudes; conversely, there are also times when planetary wave activity in the mesosphere, E-region or F-region has no apparent link to activity in the stratosphere. The latitudinal activity pattern of stratospheric data tentatively suggests that when the stratospheric signatures are intense over a wide range of latitudes, propagation of planetary waves into the mesosphere is less likely than when the stratospheric activity is more latitudinally restricted. It is possible that, on at least one occasion, 16-day planetary wave activity in the mesosphere may have been ducted to high latitudes from the lower latitude stratosphere. The most consistent feature is that planetary wave activity in the mesosphere is almost always anti-correlated to planetary wave activity in the E-region even though the two are in close physical proximity. The oscillatory critical filtering of vertical gravity wave propagation by planetary waves and the re-generation of the planetary wave component at higher altitudes through subsequent critical filtering or breaking of the gravity waves may provide an explanation for some of these characteristics. Alternatively the nonlinear interaction between planetary waves and tides, indicated in the E-region data, may play a role.     

Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, strong correlations between the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and calculated three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm vertical fluxes are indicated in December 1958–1976 and 1992–2006. These correlations between the interannual variations of the SST anomalies and the penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere are much less during the decadal sub-period 1976–1992 in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the decadal cold SST anomalies in the North Pacific. Interannual variations of the polar jet in the lower stratosphere in January are strongly associated with SST anomalies in the Aleutian Low region in December for the years with positive PDO index. This sub-period corresponds well with that of the violation of the Holton–Tan relationship between the equatorial Quasi-Beinnial Oscillation (QBO) and the stratospheric circulation in the extra-tropics. It is shown that interannual and interdecadal variations of stratospheric dynamics, including stratospheric warming occurrences in January, depend strongly on changes of the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere over North Eurasia in preceding December. These findings give evidences of a large impact of the decadal SST variations in the North Pacific on wave activity in early winter due to changes of thermal excitation of planetary waves during distinct decadal periods. Possible causes of the decadal violation of the Holton–Tan relationship, its relation to the PDO and an influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere are discussed.     

Variability of planetary waves as a signature of possible climatic changes

The long-term variability of stationary and traveling planetary waves in the lower stratosphere has been investigated using the data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results obtained show that during the last decades winter-mean amplitude of the stationary planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (SPW1) increases at the higher middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. It has been suggested that the observed increase in the SPW1 amplitude should be accompanied by the growth in the magnitude of the stratospheric vacillations. The analysis of the SPW1 behavior in the NCEP/NCAR data set supports this suggestion and shows a noticeable increase with time in the SPW1 intra-seasonal variability. The amplitudes of the long-period normal atmospheric modes, the so-called 5-, 10- and 16-day waves, diminish. It is supposed that one of the possible reasons for this decrease can be a growth of radiative damping rate caused, for instance, by the increase of CO₂. To investigate a possible climatic change of the middle atmosphere dynamics caused by observed changes in the tropospheric temperature, two sets of runs (using zonally averaged temperature distributions in the troposphere typical for January 1960 and 2000) with the middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM) have been performed. The results obtained show that on average the calculated amplitude of the SPW1 in the stratosphere increased in 2000 and there is also an increase of its intra-seasonal variability conditioned by nonlinear interaction with the mean flow. This increase in the amplitudes of stratospheric vacillations during the last four decades allows us to suggest that stratospheric dynamics becomes more stochastic.     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).     

Variability of the mesospheric wind field at middle and Arctic latitudes in winter and its relation to stratospheric circulation disturbances

Continuous wind observations allow detailed investigations of the upper mesosphere circulation in winter and its coupling with the lower atmosphere. During winter the mesospheric/lower thermospheric wind field is characterized by a strong variability. Causes of this behaviour are planetary wave activity and related stratospheric warming events. Reversals of the dominating eastward directed mean zonal winds in winter to summerly westward directed winds are often observed in connection with stratospheric warmings. In particular, the amplitude and duration of these wind reversals are closely related to disturbances of the dynamical regime of the upper stratosphere.The occurrence of long-period wind oscillations and wind reversals in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere in relation to planetary wave activity and circulation disturbances in the stratosphere has been studied for 12 winters covering the years 1989–2000 on the basis of MF radar wind observations at Juliusruh (55°N, since 1989) and Andenes (69°N, since 1998). Mesospheric wind oscillations with long-periods between 10 and 18 days are observed during the presence of enhanced planetary wave activity in the stratosphere and are combined with a reversal of the meridional temperature gradient of the stratosphere or with upper stratospheric warmings.     

Planetary waves observed by TIMED/SABER in coupling the stratosphere–mesosphere–lower thermosphere during the winter of 2003/2004: Part 1—Comparison with the UKMO temperature results

Part 1 of the present paper is focused on the types of planetary wave seen in the TIMED/SABER and UK Met Office (UKMO) temperature data in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (0–50°N) stratosphere (30–60 km) during the Arctic winter of 2003/2004, as the emphasis is on their spatial structure (latitude and altitude) and temporal evolution particularly in relation to the stratospheric warmings. A new method for analysis of satellite data is presented in this study where the migrating and nonmigrating tides and planetary waves (stationary, zonally symmetric and travelling) are simultaneously extracted from the satellite data. The comparison between the altitude and latitude structure of the SABER and UKMO planetary waves in the temperature field of the NH stratosphere indicates a high degree of qualitative and quantitative resemblance and in this way the validity of the new data analysis method is verified as well.     

Resonant interaction between two planetary waves as a precursor for stratospheric warmings?

Stratospheric warmings are attributed to an enhanced planetary wave activity, occurring nearly each winter – at least in the northern hemisphere – with different strengths. The generation of stratospheric warmings is not totally understood. One of the most promising explanations is the interaction of planetary waves: in many cases, the amplitude of the quasi-stationary planetary wave 1 builds up, until it transmits its momentum and energy to the background wind field. The role of wave 2 is usually considered to be less important.Based on ERA-40 and DYANA temperature data (January–February 1990), we found evidence that a resonant wave–wave interaction between a travelling and a stationary wave 2 was responsible for a minor stratospheric warming in February 1990. The interaction being observed during four weeks can eventually be used as an indication for an upcoming stratospheric warming.     

The role of the stratosphere in climate change

A variety of climate perturbations have the potential to alter the thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics of the middle atmosphere, which may then affect tropospheric climate. Increased thermal emission from rising stratospheric CO₂ levels and scattering of solar radiation from stratospheric volcanic aerosols have a direct impact on surface temperatures, while variations in stratospheric water vapor and ozone can affect tropospheric temperatures. Observations and modeling experiments suggest that these perturbations, as well as solar irradiance variations operating through the stratosphere, may affect tropospheric dynamics, such as planetary wave amplitudes and Hadley cell intensity. In addition, climate changes will probably alter tropospheric/stratospheric exchange, with the potential for modifying trace gas distributions and climate forcing. These issues are reviewed in the light of the incorporation of middle atmosphere studies into IGBP.     

ECMWF和HALOE平流层温度资料对比

利用ECMWF和HALOE资料,分析了1991~2002年两种资料中温度垂直廓线、平方差水平分布,并通过线性趋势分析方法分析了平流层不同高度温度变化趋势的差异.研究结果表明：在中低纬度地区,10 hPa以下两种资料中温度垂直廓线非常吻合;10~2 hPa高度,HALOE资料中温度比ECMWF资料中温度要高;1 hPa高度上,两种资料也有比较小的差异.在南北半球的中高纬度地区,温度的差异比较明显,整个平流层中,HALOE资料中温度比ECMWF资料中温度要高.平流层中温度的水平分布差异随着高度而增大.中低纬度地区温度差异相对较小,南北半球50°以上地区差异比较大.在平流层的中低层100 hPa、50 hPa和10 hPa高度,两种资料中温度的变化趋势一致,但是HALOE资料中温度的递减趋势要更明显.在平流层高层2 hPa,1996年后两种资料中温度的变化趋势相反.本研究将为平流层温度研究的资料选择提供一定的依据.     

冬季平流层波动模型的分岔特性

从描述波流相互作用的Ｈｏｌｔｏｎ－Ｄｕｎｋｅｒｔｏｎ简称Ｈ－Ｄ)模型出发，应用延拓方法求解常微分方程的分岔问题，研究冬季平流层波动模型的分岔特性．给出了大气行星波２与流相互作用的底部边界强迫波、底部边界平均纬向风场、风切变等参数的分岔特性，同时给出了波１与流相互作用的底部边界强迫波的分岔特性的结果．     

冬季平流层波动模型的分岔特性

从描述波流相互作用的Ｈｏｌｔｏｎ－Ｄｕｎｋｅｒｔｏｎ简称Ｈ－Ｄ)模型出发,应用延拓方法求解常微分方程的分岔问题,研究冬季平流层波动模型的分岔特性．给出了大气行星波２与流相互作用的底部边界强迫波、底部边界平均纬向风场、风切变等参数的分岔特性,同时给出了波１与流相互作用的底部边界强迫波的分岔特性的结果．     

对流层强迫与平流层暴发性增温

采用平流层准地转－β通道近似下的波流相互作用模型，考虑大气行星波１和波２与流的相互作用，以平流层底部边界强迫波波１和波２的振幅作为参数，对该模型的分岔特性进行了研究．结果表明，系统具有稳态解支Ａ，Ｂ，Ｃ，在某些参数范围内，多种稳态解同时存在．解支Ａ对应于平流层冷冬状态，解支Ｃ对应于平流层增温状态．由于参数变化系统在稳态解Ａ和Ｃ之间发生灾变是冬季平流层暴发性增温的原因．文中给出了二维参数空间中的分岔集，它表明了对流层顶的波动对平流层暴发性增温的控制作用，能很好地解释观测事实．     

The boreal spring stratospheric final warming and its interannual and interdecadal variability

Based on the daily NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data,dates of the boreal spring Stratospheric Final Warming(SFW) events during 1979–2010 are defined as the time when the zonal-mean zonal wind at the central latitudes(65°–75°N) of the westerly polar jet drops below zero and never recovers until the subsequent autumn.It is found that the SFW events occur successively from the mid to the lower stratosphere and averagely from the mid to late April with a temporal lag of about 13 days from 10 to 50 hPa.Over the past 32 years,the earliest SFW occurs in mid March whereas the latest SFW happens in late May,showing a clear interannual variability of the time of SFW.Accompanying the SFW onset,the stratospheric circulation transits from a winter dynamical regime to a summertime state,and the maximum negative tendency of zonal wind and the strongest convergence of planetary-wave are observed.Composite results show that the early/late SFW events in boreal spring correspond to a quicker/slower transition of the stratospheric circulation,with the zonal-mean zonal wind reducing about 20/5 m s-1 at 30 hPa within 10 days around the onset date.Meanwhile,the planetary wave activities are relatively strong/weak associating with an out-of-/in-phase circumpolar circulation anomaly before and after the SFW events in the stratosphere.All these results indicate that,the earlier breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV),as for the winter stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events is driven mainly by wave forcing;and in contrast,the later breakdown of the SPV exhibits more characteristics of its seasonal evolution.Nevertheless,after the breakdown of SPV,the polar temperature anomalies always exhibit an out-of-phase relationship between the stratosphere and the troposphere for both the early and late SFW events,which implies an intimate stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling in spring.In addition,there exists a remarkable interdecadal change of the onset time of SFW in the mid 1990s.On average,the SFW onset time before the mid 1990s is 11 days earlier than that afterwards,corresponding to the increased/decreased planetary wave activities in late winter-early spring before/after the 1990s.     

Planetary waves observed by TIMED/SABER in coupling the stratosphere–mesosphere–lower thermosphere during the winter of 2003/2004: Part 2—Altitude and latitude planetary wave structure

Part 2 of the present paper is focused on the planetary wave coupling from the stratosphere to the lower thermosphere (30–120 km) during the Arctic winter of 2003/2004. The planetary waves seen in the TIMED/SABER temperature data in the latitudinal range 50°N–50°S are studied in detail. The altitude and latitude structures of the planetary wave (stationary and travelling) clearly indicate that the stratosphere and mesosphere (30–90 km) are coupled by direct vertical propagation of the planetary waves, while the lower thermosphere (above 90–95 km altitude) is only partly connected with the lower levels probably indirectly through in-situ generation of disturbances by the dissipation and breaking of gravity waves filtered by lower atmospheric planetary waves. A peculiar feature of the thermal regime in the lower thermosphere is that it is dominated by zonally symmetric planetary waves.     

Midlatitude mesopause region winds and waves and comparison with stratospheric variability

We present time series of January–May mean mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) mean winds and planetary wave (PW) proxies over Europe together with stratospheric stationary planetary waves (SPW) at 50°N and time series of European ozone laminae occurrence. The MLT winds are connected with stratospheric PW and laminae at time scales of several years to decades. There is a tendency for increased wave activity after 1990, together with more ozone laminae and stronger MLT zonal winds. However, possible coupling processes are not straightforward. While mean MLT winds before the 1990s show similar interannual variations than stratospheric PW at 100 hPa, later a tendency towards a connection of the MLT with the middle stratosphere SPW is registered. There is also a tendency for a change in the correlation between lower and middle stratosphere SPW, indicating that coupling processes involving the European middle atmosphere from the lower stratosphere to the mesopause region have changed.     

Forcing of the ionosphere from above and below during the Arctic winter of 2005/2006

The present paper focuses on planetary wave type responses of the thermosphere/ionosphere system to forcing from above and below during the Arctic winter of 2005/2006. The forcing from above is described by the sunspot numbers, the solar wind speed, the B_z-component of the IMF and the geomagnetic Kp-index, while the forcing from below, i.e. by upward propagating atmospheric waves, is represented by the SABER/TIMED temperatures. The observed global ionospheric zonally symmetric oscillations with periods of ～9, ～14 and ～24–27 days were approved to be of solar origin. The most persistent ～9-day oscillation is linked to a triad of solar coronal holes distributed roughly 120° apart in solar longitude. The ～18-day westward propagating wave with zonal wavenumber 1, observed in the ionospheric currents (detected by magnetometer data), and in the F-region plasma (foF2 and TEC) could be allocated to a simultaneous 18-day westward propagating planetary wave observed in the stratosphere/mesosphere/lower thermosphere region with large (～70 km) vertical wavelength.     

Solar cycle changes to planetary wave propagation and their influence on the middle atmosphere circulation

Recent observations suggest that there may be a causal relationship between solar activity and the strength of the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation in the stratosphere. A three-dimensional model of the atmosphere between 10–140 km was developed to assess the influence of solar minimum and solar maximum conditions on the propagation of planetary waves and the subsequent changes to the circulation of the stratosphere. Ultraviolet heating in the middle atmosphere was kept constant in order to emphasise the importance of non-linear dynamical coupling. A realistic thermo-sphere was achieved by relaxing the upper layers to the MSIS-90 empirical temperature model. In the summer hemisphere, strong radiative damping prevents significant dynamical coupling from taking place. Within the dynamically controlled winter hemisphere, small perturbations are reinforced over long periods of time, resulting in systematic changes to the stratospheric circulation. The winter vortex was significantly weakened during solar maximum and western phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, in accordance with reported 30 mb geopotential height and total ozone measurements.     

Stratospheric ozone response to a solar proton event: Hemispheric asymmetries

Ozone depression in the polar stratosphere during the energetic solar proton event on 4 August 1972 was observed by the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) experiment on the Nimbus 4 satellite. Distinct asymmetries in the columnar ozone content, the amount of ozone depressions and their temporal variations above 4 mb level (38 km) were observed between the two hemispheres. The ozone destroying solar particles precipitate rather symmetrically into the two polar atmospheres due to the geomagnetic dipole field These asymmetries can be therefore ascribed to the differences mainly in dynamics and partly in the solar illumination and the vertical temperature structure between the summer and the winter polar atmospheres. The polar stratosphere is less disturbed and warmer in the summer hemisphere than the winter hemisphere since the propagation of planetary wave from the troposphere is inhibited by the wind system in the upper troposphere, and the air is heated by the prolonged solar insolation. Correspondingly, the temporal variations of stratospheric ozone depletion and its recovery appear to be smooth functions of time in the (northern) summer hemisphere and the undisturbed ozone amount is slighily, less than that of its counterpart. On the other hand, the tempotal variation of the upper stratospheric ozone in the winter polar atmosphere (southern hemisphere) indicates large amplitudes and irregularities due to the disturbances produced by upward propagating waves which prevail in the polar winter atmosphere. These characteristic differences between the two polar atmospheres are also evident in the vertical distributions of temperature and wind observed by balloons and rocker soundings.     

On the solar/QBO effect on the interannual variability of total ozone and the stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe

Based on total ozone data from the World Ozone Data Center and stratospheric geopotential height data from the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University for the months of January through March for the time period of 1958–1996, the influence of the 11-year solar cycle and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on total ozone and the stratospheric circulation at 30 hPa over Northern Europe is investigated. The analysis is performed for different levels of solar activity. The relationship of the equatorial QBO with ozone and the stratospheric circulation over the study region exhibits unique features attributed to strong opposite connections between the equatorial zonal wind and ozone/stratospheric dynamics during periods of solar minimum and maximum. Using the Solar/QBO effect, a statistical extraction of the interannual variations of total ozone and stratospheric circulation over Northern Europe has been attempted. The variations extracted and observed for late winter show very good correspondence. The solar/QBO effect in total ozone and stratospheric dynamics over Northern Europe appears to be related to planetary wave activity.