Influence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) on the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on neighboring faults

The Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault are two major neighboring faults of the Longmen–Shan fault zone where the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w 7.9) occurred. To study the influence of the Wenchuan event on these two active faults, we calculate changes of Coulomb stress on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault caused by the Wenchuan mainshock. Our results indicate that the Coulomb stress in the northern section (Zone A) of the Longquan–Shan fault is increased by 0.07–0.10 bars, that in the middle section (Zone B) by 0.04–0.11 bars, and that in the southern section (Zone C) shows almost no change. For the Huya fault, the Coulomb stress is decreased by 0.01–0.03 bars in the northern section (Zone A), 0.10–0.35 bars in the middle section (Zone B), and nearly 0.5 bars in the southern section (Zone C). The epicenter distribution of small earthquakes (M_L ⩾ 1.5) on the Longquan–Shan fault and the Huya fault after the Wenchuan earthquake is consistent with the distribution of the Coulomb stress change. This implies that the Wenchuan earthquake may have triggered small events on the Longquan–Shan fault, but inhibited those on the Huya fault. We then use the rate/state friction law to calculate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the study region for the next decade. They include the distribution of b-values, magnitude of completeness (M_c), the background seismicity rate, a value of Aσ_n and the duration for the transient effect (t_a) in the study region. We also estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities on the neighboring faults after the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results show that, the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the Longquan–Shan has a slight increase, being 7% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade, but the earthquake probability in the Huya region is reduced obviously, being 5–20%, 7–26% and 3–9% for M ⩾ 5.0 shocks during the next decade in sections A, B and C of the Huya fault, respectively.     

Static stress drop inferred from near-fault parameters for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake in Taiwan

In 2001, a special issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (BSSA) featured seismological research for the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan earthquake. This study uses source parameters suggested by the first author in this special issue to estimate static stress drop associated with the Chi–Chi earthquake. The waveform simulation method was used to carefully examine these source parameters. The simulation results indicate that source parameters, inferred from near-fault observations, are well determined. According to the rupture area and slip, the static stress drops (Δσ_s) obtained were distributed between a small value of 47 bars near the epicentral region and a much larger value (>200 bars) to the north. Similar trends in dynamic stress drop (Δσ_d) were also recognized by the first author in his paper published in 2001 BSSA special issue. Comparing the Δσ_s with Δσ_d, satisfies the relation Δσ_s/Δσ_d ≈ 1. This relation suggests that fault motion is mostly spent releasing seismic wave energy during the rupture process of the Chi–Chi earthquake. The consistency between static and dynamic stress drops thus provides a measure of energy-moment (E_s/M₀) ratios, which range from 9.0 × 10⁻⁵ to 6.5 × 10⁻⁴. The average E_s/M₀ ratio estimated for the northern portions of the fault is 3.4 × 10⁻⁴, which is about 3 times that of the south. Such a high E_s/M₀ ratio can be interpreted as having low strength in the rupture for the northern portions of the fault, where the fault would release less energy per unit rupture surface to create the new rupture.     

The 2007 Talala,Saurashtra, western India earthquake sequence: Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering

A damaging and widely felt moderate (M_w 5.0) earthquake occurred in the Talala region of Saurashtra, Gujarat (western India) on November 6, 2007. The highly productive sequence comprised about 1300 micro earthquakes (M > 0.5) out of which 325 of M ? 1.5 that occurred during November 6, 2007–January 10, 2008 were precisely located. The spatial aftershock distribution revealed a NE–SW striking fault in accordance with the centroid moment tensor solution, which in turn implies left-lateral motion. The orientation and sense of shear are consistent with similarly orientated geological fault identified in the area from satellite imagery and field investigation.The aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of frequency–magnitude distribution, spatial fractal dimension, D, and slip ratio (ratio of the slip occurred on the primary fault to the total slip) were examined with the purpose to identify the properties of the sequence. The high b-value (1.18 ± 0.01) may be attributed to the paucity of the larger (M ? 4.0) aftershocks and reveals crustal heterogeneity and low stress regime. The high p-value (1.10 ± 0.39), implying fast decay rate of aftershocks, evidences high surface heat flux. A value of the spatial fractal dimension (D) equal to 2.21 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and source in a two-dimensional plane that is being filled-up by fractures. A slip ratio of 0.42 reveals that more slip occurred on secondary fault systems.The static Coulomb stress changes due to the coseismic slip of the main shock, enhanced off fault aftershock occurrence. The occurrence of a moderate earthquake (M_w 4.3) on October 5, 2008 inside a region of positive Coulomb stress changes supports the postulation on aftershock triggering. When the stress changes were resolved on a cross section including the stronger (M4.8) foreshock plane that is positioned adjacent to the main fault, it became evident that the activity continued there due to stress transfer from the main rupture.     

Seismic behavior in central Taiwan: Response to stress evolution following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake

Following the 1999 M_w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight M_w ⩾ 5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.     

Source complexity of the 4 March 2010 Jiashian,Taiwan, Earthquake determined by joint inversion of teleseismic and near field data

The Jiashian earthquake (M_L 6.4) occurred on 4 March 2010. It was the largest inland event in southern Taiwan of 2010. The mainshock location was unexpected since it occurred in an area with relatively low background seismicity. In addition, reports of earthquake focal mechanisms do not fit with any known active fault geometry. In order to understand the origin of this earthquake, especially its rupture process, we perform a joint source inversion by using teleseismic body wave, GPS coseismic displacements and near field ground motion data. In this study, we considered a northwest–southeast trending fault with a northeast dip retrieved from GPS coseismic data and aftershocks distribution. To analyze the detailed slip distribution in space and time, we used near field 3D Green’s functions provided by spectral-element method and a full time–space inversion technique. We find a complex rupture process with several slip patches distributed inside two main asperities. The slip map reveals a mean slip of 12.9 cm for a maximum slip of 27.3 cm leading to a M_w 6.47 for this event. The rupture initiates in the deepest portion of the fault at 20 km depth, and propagated upward up to 2 km depth to form the two asperities. The source time function of this event revealed two pulses corresponding to the two asperities, for a total duration time of about 16 s. Most aftershocks occurred near the upper boundary of the deepest asperity while no aftershocks are located close to the shallowest one. We infer that the locations of these slip patches are related to the surrounding fault systems that may have restricted the rupture propagation during the earthquake.     

Seismicity of the Baikal rift system from regional network observations

In the paper we report the state-of-the-art of seismicity study in the Baikal rift system and the general results obtained. At present, the regional earthquake catalog for fifty years of the permanent instrumental observations consists of over 185,000 events. The spatial distribution of the epicenters, which either gather along well-delineated belts or in discrete swarms is considered in detail for different areas of the rift system. At the same time, the hypocenters are poorly constrained making it difficult to identify the fault geometry. Clustered events like aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms are typical patterns in the region; moreover, aftershocks of M ⩾ 4.7 earthquakes make up a quarter of the whole catalog. The maximum magnitude of earthquakes recorded instrumentally is M_LH7.6 for a strike-slip event in the NE part of the Baikal rift system and M_LH6.8 for a normal fault earthquake in the central part of the rift system (Lake Baikal basin). Predominant movement type is normal faulting on NE striking faults with a left lateral strike-slip component on W–E planes. In conclusion, some shortcomings of the seismic network and data processing are pointed out.     

Seismicity and fault aseismic deformation caused by fluid injection in decametric in-situ experiments

Seismicity induced by fluid perturbations became an important societal concern since felt earthquakes (M_w up to 6) occurred after anthropogenic activities. In order to mitigate the risks associated with undesired seismicity, as well as to be able to use the micro-seismicity as a probe for in-depth investigation of fluid-driven processes, it is of crucial importance to understand the links between seismicity, fluid pressure and flow. We have developed a series of in-situ, decameter-scale experiments of fault zone reactivation by controlled fluid injection, in order to improve the near-source geophysical and hydromechanical observations. The deployed geophysical monitoring close to the injection allows one to cover the full frequency range of the fault responses from the static deformation to the very high-frequency seismic emissions (up to 4 kHz). Here, we focus on the microseismicity (M_w ∼ –4 to –3) recorded during two fluid injection experiments in low-permeable shale and highly-fractured limestone formations. In both experiments, the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic events, the energy balance, and the seismic velocity changes of the fractured medium show that most of the deformation does not actually emit seismic signals. The induced deformation is mainly aseismic. Based on these high-resolution multiparametric observations in the near-field, we therefore proposed a new model for injection-induced seismicity: the seismicity is not directly induced by the increasing fluid pressure, but it is rather triggered by the stress perturbations transferred from the aseismic motion caused by the injection.     

Release of mantle and crustal helium from a fault following an inland earthquake

Static stress changes caused by megathrust slip of the 2011 M_w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake considerably affected the seismicity patterns in inland areas, resulting in the occurrence of numerous earthquakes along several active faults in Japan. On June 30, 2011, the M_j 5.4 central Nagano earthquake occurred at a shallow depth of 5 km, indicating the reactivation of the Gofukuji fault in Central Japan. This study was undertaken to elucidate spatial and temporal changes of ³He/⁴He ratios around a source region before and after an inland earthquake using both existing and new and helium isotope data from hot spring and drinking water wells. Gas samples near the Gofukuji fault and its surrounding active faults are characterized by an increase in postseismic ³He/⁴He ratios. In contrast, the postseismic ratios decreased by up to about 30% away from the mainshock epicenter. Episodic faulting could either release stored crustal (radiogenic) helium from host rocks, or enhance the transfer of mantle volatiles through permeable fault zones, such that subsequent fluid flow near to the source region could then explain the spatio-temporal variations in ³He/⁴He ratios.     

Surface deformation related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,and mountain building of the Longmen Shan,eastern Tibetan Plateau

The 12 May 2008 M_s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China, was one of largest continental thrusting events worldwide. Based on interpretations of post-earthquake high-resolution remote sensing images and field surveys, we investigated the geometry, geomorphology, and kinematics of co-seismic surface ruptures, as well as seismic and geologic hazards along the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt. Our results indicate that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the NE–SW-trending Yingxiu–Beichuan and Guanxian–Anxian faults in the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt. The main surface rupture zones along the Yingxiu–Beichuan and Guanxian–Anxian fault zones are approximately 235 and 72 km in length, respectively. These sub-parallel ruptures may merge at depth. The Yingxiu–Donghekou surface rupture zone can be divided into four segments separated by discontinuities that appear as step-overs or bends in map view. Surface deformation is characterized by oblique reverse faulting with a maximum vertical displacement of approximately 10 m in areas around Beichuan County. Earthquake-related disasters (e.g., landslides) are linearly distributed along the surface rupture zones and associated river valleys.The Wenchuan earthquake provides new insights into the nature of mountain building within the Longmen Shan, eastern Tibetan Plateau. The total crustal shortening accommodated by this great earthquake was as much as 8.5 m, with a maximum vertical uplift of approximately 10 m. The present results suggest that ongoing mountain building of the Longmen Shan is driven mainly by crustal shortening and uplift related to repeated large seismic events such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Furthermore, rapid erosion within the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt occurs along deep valleys and rupture zones following the occurrence of large-scale landslides triggered by earthquakes. Consequently, we suggest that crustal shortening related to repeated great seismic events, together with isostatic rebound induced by rapid erosion-related unloading, is a key component of the geodynamics that drive ongoing mountain building on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Exhumation history and faulting activity of the southern segment of the Longmen Shan,eastern Tibet

The Longmen Shan (LMS), which constitutes the eastern border of the Tibetan Plateau, is about 400 km in length and characterized by a steep topographic transition from the Sichuan Basin to the plateau. The 2008 M_w7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and 2013 M_w6.6 Lushan earthquake were associated with the central to northern segments and southern segment of the LMS fault belt, respectively. In this paper, zircon and apatite fission track (ZFT and AFT, respectively) dating in combination with previously published low temperature thermochronology studies are used to constrain both the exhumation history and fault activity along the LMS, with a special focus on the southern segment. In the southern segment of the LMS, the ZFT ages in the hanging wall of the Wulong-Yanjing fault 10–14 Ma, increasing to ca. 30 Ma to the northwest of the faults and to 100–200 Ma in the plateau region. The AFT ages are 3–5 Ma at the mountain front and increase to 8–26 Ma in the plateau. We show that these age distributions are controlled by fault geometry. Two stages of rapid exhumation were identified using apatite fission track length modeling and the age distributions in the southern segment of the LMS. The first stage is from ca. 30 Ma and the second stage is from 3–5 Ma to present. In contrast with the middle segment of the LMS, the Cenozoic exhumation rate is higher in the southern segment of the LMS, which may be due to the influence of the collision between the India and Eurasia plates and/or different faulting mechanisms in the different segments.     

5.9 Mw, 18th June 2010 earthquake and fault segment linkage at Andaman – A study based on macroseismic survey,GPS geodesy and Coulomb stress changes

18th June, 2010 5.9 M_w earthquake at North Andaman triggered along NW–SE pre-existing fault with reverse fault mechanism. Macroseismic survey and GPS geodesy reveal maximum damages following NE–SW trend due to normal fault mechanism. Coulomb stress modeling for post- and inter-seismic earthquakes after the 2004 mega-earthquake show different stages of fault segment linkage at North Andaman. The present earthquake has been explained as co-shock due to asiesmic soft linkage of fault propagation.     

Geodetic and seismological investigation of crustal deformation near Izmir (Western Anatolia)

The Aegean region including western Turkey, mainland Greece, and the Hellenic Arc is the most seismological and geodynamical active domain in the Alpine Himalayan Belt. In this study, we processed 3 years of survey-mode GPS data and present the analysis of a combination of geodetic and seismological data around Izmir, which is the third most populated city in Turkey. The velocities obtained from 15 sites vary between 25 mm/yr and 28 mm/yr relative to the Eurasian plate. The power law exponent of earthquake size distribution (b-value) ranges from 0.8 to 2.8 in the Izmir region between 26.2°E and 27.2°E. The lowest b-value zones are found along Karaburun Fault (b = 0.8) and, between Seferihisar and Tuzla Faults (b = 0.8). A localized stress concentration is expected from numerical models of seismicity along geometrical locked fault patches. Therefore, areas with lowest b-values are considered to be the most likely location for a strong earthquake, a prediction that is confirmed by the 2005 M_w = 5.9 Seferihisar earthquake sequences, with epicentres located to the south of the Karaburun Fault. The north–south extension of the Izmir area is corroborated by extension rates up to 140 nanostrain/yr as obtained from our GPS data. We combined the 3-year GPS velocity field with the published velocity field to determine the strain rate pattern in the area. The spatial distribution of b-value reflects the normal background due to the tectonic framework and is corroborated by the geodetic data. b-Values correlate with strain pattern. This relationship suggests that decrease of b-values signifies accumulating strain.     

Source characteristics of the Yutian earthquake in 2008 from inversion of the co-seismic deformation field mapped by InSAR

On 21 March 2008, an Ms7.3 earthquake occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which is in the same year as 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. These two earthquakes both took place in the Bayar Har block, while Yutian earthquake is located in the west edge and Wenchuan earthquake is in the east. The research on source characteristics of Yutian earthquake can serve to better understand Wenchuan earthquake mechanism. We attempt to reveal the features of the causative fault of Yutian shock and its co-seismic deformation field by a sensitivity-based iterative fitting (SBIF) method. Our work is based on analysis and interpretation to high-resolution satellite (Quickbird) images as well as D-InSAR data from the satellite Envisat ASAR, in conjunction with the analysis of seismicity, focal mechanism solutions and active tectonics in this region. The result shows that the 22 km long, nearly NS trending surface rupture zone by this event lies on a range-front alluvial platform in the Qira County. It is characterized by distinct linear traces and a simple structure with 1–3 m-wide individual seams and maximum 6.5 m width of a collapse fracture. Along the rupture zone are seen many secondary fractures and fault-bounded blocks by collapse, exhibiting remarkable extension. The co-seismic deformation affected a big range 100 km × 40 km. D-InSAR analysis indicates that the interferometric deformation field is dominated by extensional faulting with a small strike-slip component. Along the causative fault, the western wall fell down and the eastern wall, that is the active unit, rose up, both with westerly vergence. The maximum subsidence displacement is ～2.6 m in the LOS, and the maximum uplift is 1.2 m. The maximum relative vertical dislocation reaches 4.1 m, which is 10 km distant from the starting rupture point to south. The 42 km-long seismogenic fault in the subsurface extends in NS direction as an arc, and it dipping angle changes from 70° near the surface to 52° at depth ～10 km. The slip on the fault plane is concentrated in the depth range 0–8 km, forming a belt of length 30 km along strike on the fault plane. There are three areas of concentrating slip, in which the largest slip is 10.5 m located at the area 10 km distant from the initial point of the rupture.     

The 10 June 2012 Fethiye Mw 6.0 aftershock sequence and its relation to the 24–25 April 1957 Ms 6.9–7.1 earthquakes in SW Anatolia,Turkey

The 10 June 2012 M_w 6.0 aftershock sequence in southwestern Anatolia is examined. Centroid moment tensors for 23 earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M_w) between 3.7 and 6.0 are determined by applying a waveform inversion method. The mainshock is a shallow focus strike-slip with reverse component event at a depth of 30 km. The seismic moment (M_o) of the mainshock is estimated as 1.28 × 10¹⁸ Nm and rupture duration of the Fethiye mainshock is 38 s. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are mainly strike-slip faulting with a reverse component. The geometry of the focal mechanisms reveals a strike-slip faulting regime with NE–SW trending direction of T-axis in the entire activated region. A stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism data is performed to obtain a more accurate picture of the Fethiye earthquake stress field. The stress tensor inversion results indicate a predominant strike-slip stress regime with a NW–SE oriented maximum horizontal compressive stress (S_H). According to variance of the stress tensor inversion, to first order, the Fethiye earthquake area is characterized by a homogeneous interplate stress field. The Coulomb stress change associated with the mainshock and the largest aftershock are also investigated to evaluate any significant enhancement of stresses along the Gulf of Fethiye and surrounding region. Positive lobes with stress more than 0.4 bars are obtained, indicating that these values are large enough to increase the Coulomb stress failure towards NNW–SSE and E–W directions.     

Neotectonic fault analysis by 2D finite element modeling for studying the Himalayan fold-and-thrust belt in Nepal

This paper examines the neotectonic stress field and faulting in the fold-and-thrust belt of the Nepal Himalaya using the 2D finite element technique, incorporating elastic material behavior under plane strain conditions. Three structural cross-sections (eastern, central and western Nepal), where the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) has different geometries, are used for the simulation, because each profile is characterized by different seismicity and neotectonic deformation. A series of numerical models are presented in order to understand the influence of a mid-crustal ramp on the stress field and on neotectonic faulting. Results show that compressive and tensional stress fields are induced to the north and south of the mid-crustal ramp, and consequently normal faults are developed in the thrust sheets moving on the mid-crustal ramp. Since the shear stress accumulation along the northern flat of the MHT is entirely caused by the mid-crustal ramp, this suggests that, as in the past, the MHT will be reactivated in a future large (M_w > 8) earthquake. The simulated fault pattern explains the occurrence of several active faults in the Nepal Himalaya. In all models, the distribution of the horizontal σ₁ (maximum principal stress) is consistent with the sequence of thrusting observed in the fold-and-thrust belt of the Himalaya. Failure elements around the flat–ramp–flat coincide with the microseismic events in the area, which are believed to release elastic stress partly during interseismic periods.     

Is earthquake activity along the French Atlantic margin favoured by local rheological contrasts?

The seismological study of recent seismic crises near Oleron Island confirms the coexistence of an extensional deformation and a transtensive regime in the Atlantic margin of France, which is different from the general western European stress field corresponding to a strike-slip regime. We argue that the switch of the principal stress axes σ₁/σ₂ in a NW–SE vertical plane is linked with the existence of crustal heterogeneities. Events of magnitude larger than 5 sometimes occur along the Atlantic margin of France, such as the 7 September 1972 (M_L = 5.2) earthquake near Oleron island and the 30 September 2002 (M_L = 5.7) Hennebont event in Brittany. To test the mechanism of local strain localization, we model the deformation of the hypocentral area of the Hennebont earthquake using a 3D thermo-mechanical finite element code. We conclude that the occurrence of moderate earthquakes located in limited parts of the Hercynian shear zones (as the often reactivated swarms near Oleron) could be due to local reactivation of pre-existing faults. These sporadic seismic ruptures are favoured by stress concentration due to rheological heterogeneities.     

Paleoearthquakes in the Uimon basin (Gorny Altai)

Paleoseismological studies confirm that the Uimon basin is thrust by its northern mountain border along the active South Terekta fault. The latest motion along the fault in the 7-8th centuries AD induced an earthquake with a magnitude of M_w= 7.4-7.7 and a shaking intensity of I = 9-11 on the MSK-64 scale. The same fault generated another event (M > 7, I = 9-10), possibly, about 16 kyr ago, which triggered gravity sliding. The rockslide dammed the Uimon valley and produced a lake, where lacustrine deposition began about 14 ± 1 kyr ago, and a later M > 7 (I = 9-10) earthquake at ~ 6 ka caused the dam collapse and the lake drainage. Traces of much older earthquakes that occurred within the Uimon basin are detectable from secondary deformation structures (seismites) in soft sediments deposited during the drainage of a Late Pleistocene ice-dammed lake between 100 and 90 ka and in ~ 77 ka alluvium. The magnitude and intensity of these paleoearthquakes were at least M > 5.0-5.5 and I > 6-7.     

Location of the pilot borehole for investigations of reservoir triggered seismicity at Koyna,India

Artificial water reservoir triggered earthquakes are now known to have occurred at over 120 sites globally. The part played by the reservoirs in triggering is not exactly known due to lack of near field observations of triggered earthquakes. Koyna, located near the west coast of India, where triggered earthquakes have been occurring since 1962 provides an excellent site for near field observations of the target M ≥ 2 earthquakes. A 6 borehole seismic network has been deployed recently in the Koyna region at depths of 981–1522 m to improve the hypocenter locations. During May–December 2015, a total of 1039 earthquakes of M_L ≥ 0.5 were located using the borehole seismic network. The region is also monitored through a dense network of 23 surface broad-band stations. Our analysis indicates a significant improvement in the estimation of absolute locations of earthquakes with errors of the order of ± 300 m, combining both the networks. Based on seismicity, and logistics, a block of 2 × 2 km² area has been chosen for drilling the first pilot borehole of ~ 3 km depth, where M ≥ 2 earthquakes have been occurring frequently since 2005.     

Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.     

Plio-Quaternary stress states in NE Iran: Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud mountain ranges

NE Iran, including the Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud deformation domains, comprises the northeastern boundary of the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone. This study focuses on the evolution of the Plio-Quaternary tectonic regimes of northeast Iran. We present evidence for drastic temporal changes in the stress state by inversion of both geologically and seismically determined fault slip vectors. The inversions of fault kinematics data reveal distinct temporal changes in states of stress during the Plio-Quaternary (since ～ 5 Ma). The paleostress state is characterized by a regional transpressional tectonic regime with a mean N140 ± 10°E trending horizontal maximum stress axis (σ₁). The youngest (modern) state of stress shows two distinct strike-slip and compressional tectonic regimes with a regional mean of N030 ± 15°E trending horizontal σ₁. The change from the paleostress to modern stress states has occurred through an intermediate stress field characterized by a mean regional N trending σ₁. The inversion analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms reveals a homogeneous, transpressional tectonic regime with a regional N023 ± 5°E trending σ₁. The modern stress state, deduced from the youngest fault kinematics data, is in close agreement with the present-day stress state given by the inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms. According to our data and the deduced results, in northeast Iran, the Arabia–Eurasia convergence is taken up by strike-slip faulting along NE trending left-lateral and NNW trending right-lateral faults, as well as reverse to oblique-slip reverse faulting along NW trending faults. Such a structural assemblage is involved in a mechanically compatible and homogeneous modern stress field. This implies that no strain and/or stress partitioning or systematic block rotations have occurred in the Kopeh Dagh and Allah Dagh-Binalud deformation domains. The Plio-Quaternary stress changes documented in this paper call into question the extrapolation of the present-day seismic and GPS-derived deformation rates over geological time intervals encompassing tens of millions of years.