Temperature logs in deep wells—a useful tool for past climatic reconstruction

According to the theory of heat conduction in a semi-infinite body, temperature changes at the surface propagate into the subsurface with the amplitude attenuation and time delay that increase with depth. Temperature changes on the earth's surface, reflecting the past climatic history, can thus be evaluated by analysing the curvature they have caused in the present temperature-depth distribution. As a rule, temperature profiles to depths of 200–300 m record surface temperature trends accurately over the last two centuries or so; deeper holes may reveal climate history farther back but with decreasing resolution. We present several synthetic temperature-depth profiles to demonstrate the expected signature of past surface temperature changes in the subsurface, the analysis of which may help better identify the climate of the past. Examples of extracted climate recollections from holes in North America and Europe are discussed. While inconspicuous underground records may correspond to the postglacial warming 8–11 kyr ago, reasonably well-documented borehole logging data have confirmed climate excursions in the past millenium, namely the Little Climate Optimum and the Little Ice Age. Traces of recent warming are generally common in many temperature records, evidencing the temperature rise by 1–2 K over the past 100 years.     

Appraisal of the future climate of the Holocene in the Rocky Mountains

Consideration of the history of Holocene climate in the Rocky Mountains indicates that the over-all trend during the past 2500 yr has been toward increasing warmth, interrupted by cooler times of minor advances of cirque glaciers. Comparison of Holocene climatic history with the record of past interglacials in the region suggests that the present interglacial is not complete and that the climate may become first warmer and subsequently wetter before it is completed. Correlation of the timing of the regional glacial-interglacial record for the past 140,000 yr with the record of major sea level changes and with the calculated changes in the earth's insolation suggest that the present interglacial may be completed within a few millenia and that it may be followed by a significant cooling of the climate.     

Observation of the Earth's radiation budget from space

The planet's radiation budget includes practically all energy exchange between the Sun, the Earth, and space, and so is a fundamental factor of climate. The terms of this budget, observable only from space, are determined from sampled direct measurements of the solar and terrestrial radiation fields. On the contrary, however, it should be remembered that energy exchange between the Earth's surface and its atmosphere involves not only radiative but also non-radiative energy fluxes. Nevertheless, only observations from space can provide satisfactory global coverage of the different energy fluxes that determine climate at the Earth's surface, by way of indirect retrievals of radiative fluxes at the surface and at different heights in the atmosphere. We describe the methods, applied to measurements made with a variety of instruments on board different artificial satellites, that have led to our present knowledge of the Earth's radiation budget (ERB) at the “top of the atmosphere”: global annual mean values of the ERB terms, its annual cycle, its geographical structure, and its variations. We know that solar irradiance, averaged over the globe and the year, varies by only 0.1% with the solar activity cycle; we also know that planetary (Bond) albedo is close to 0.3, that the global annual mean emission of thermal infrared radiation to space is close to 240 Wm^?2, and that these terms exhibit a weak but well determined annual cycle. We also know that cloud cover plays a major role in the radiation budget, both in the “shortwave” domain (global SW “cloud radiative forcing” –50 Wm^?2) and in the “longwave” domain (+20 Wm^?2), thus a net forcing of –30 Wm^?2. Successive satellite missions give consistent results for the shape, the phase, and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the planetary radiation balance. However, the different estimates of its annual mean absolute value remain uncertain, not differing significantly from zero, although generally excessively positive. We also rapidly review the methods used to determine the surface radiation budget as well as that of the atmosphere. For the planetary (TOA) radiation budget, we examine to what extent interannual variations and interdecadal trends have been or could be detected. We conclude with a review of projects under way. We also discuss priorities for future efforts, considering in particular, on the one hand (Ringer, 1997), the need to better quantify the factors that govern climate sensitivity to modifications of the atmosphere's radiative properties, on the other hand, the importance of monitoring the evolution of the present disequilibrium situation.     

Unprecedented last-glacial mass accumulation rates determined by luminescence dating of loess from western Nebraska

A high-resolution chronology for Peoria (last glacial period) Loess from three sites in Nebraska, midcontinental North America, is determined by applying optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to 35–50 μm quartz. At Bignell Hill, Nebraska, an OSL age of 25,000 yr near the contact of Peoria Loess with the underlying Gilman Canyon Formation shows that dust accumulation occurred early during the last glacial maximum (LGM), whereas at Devil’s Den and Eustis, Nebraska, basal OSL ages are significantly younger (18,000 and 21,000 yr, respectively). At all three localities, dust accumulation ended at some time after 14,000 yr ago. Mass accumulation rates (MARs) for western Nebraska, calculated using the OSL ages, are extremely high from 18,000 to 14,000 yr—much higher than those calculated for any other pre-Holocene location worldwide. These unprecedented MARs coincide with the timing of a mismatch between paleoenvironmental evidence from central North America, and the paleoclimate simulations from atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). We infer that the high atmospheric dust loading implied by these MARs may have played an important role, through radiative forcing, in maintaining a colder-than-present climate over central North America for several thousand years after summer insolation exceeded present-day values.     

Continental ice sheets and the planetary radiation budget

The interaction between continential ice sheets and the planetary radiation budget is potentially important in climate-sensitivity studies. A simple ice-sheet model incorporated in an energybalance climate model provides a tool for studying this interaction in a quantitative way. Experiments in which the ice-sheet model is coupled step by step to the climate model show that ice sheets hardly affect the zonal mean radiation balance because the albedo feedback due to sea ice and snow cover is dominating. The model requires a 5% drop in the solar constant to create ice sheets of ice-age size.If the feedback between surface elevation and ice-mass balance is included (in a very crude way), the ice-sheet size (L, measured southward from 70°N) becomes much more sensitive to in insolation. For a range of normalized solar constants, roughly from 0.98 to 1.02, two stable solutions exist: L 0 and L 2000 km. This result demonstrates that the response of ice sheets to insolation variations is far from linear. It also stresses the need for explicit modeling of the ice-mass balance of ice sheets, particularly its dependence on surface elevation.     

俯冲带脱碳和固碳作用过程

俯冲带作为联系地表和地球深部系统的纽带,不仅是将地表碳带入地球深部的主要通道,也是地表物质和地球深部物质发生交换的重要场所.俯冲作用可以将地表碳以有机碳或无机碳酸盐矿物等形式带入地球深部,再通过火山作用或去气作用返回到地表系统.俯冲带深部碳循环控制着地表碳通量变化,对于研究全球气候变化和地球宜居环境具有重要意义.本文结...     

Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia

Glaciers in the southern Himalayas advanced in the early Holocene despite an increase in incoming summer solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere. These glacier advances are in contrast to the smaller alpine glaciers in the western and northern regions of Central Asia. Two different glacier mass-balance models are used to reconcile this Holocene glacier history with climate by quantifying the change in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) for simulated changes in Holocene climate. Both ELA models clearly show that the lowering of ELAs in the southern Himalayas is largely due to a decrease in summer temperatures, and that an increase in monsoonal precipitation accounts for less than 30% of the total ELA changes. The decrease in summer temperatures is a dynamic response to the changes in solar insolation, resulting in both a decrease in incoming shortwave radiation at the surface due to an increase in cloudiness and an increase in evaporative cooling. In the western and northern zones of Central Asia, both ELA models show a rise in ELAs in response to a general increase in summer temperatures. This increase in temperatures in the more northern regions is a direct radiative response to the increase in summer solar insolation.     

Orbital insolation,ice volume,and greenhouse gases

The SPECMAP models of orbital-scale climate change (Imbrie et al., Paleoceanography 7 (1992) 701, Paleoceanography 8 (1993) 699) are the most comprehensive to date: all major climatic observations were analyzed within the framework of the three orbital signals. Subsequently, tuning of signals in Vostok ice to insolation forcing has fixed the timing of greenhouse-gas changes closely enough to permit an assessment of their orbital-scale climatic role. In addition, evidence from several sources has suggested changes in the SPECMAP δ¹⁸O time scale. This new information indicates that the timing of CO₂ changes at the periods of precession and obliquity does not fit the 1992 SPECMAP model of a “train” of responses initiated in the north, propagated to the south, and later returning north to force the ice sheets. In addition, analysis of the effects of rectification on 100,000-year climatic signals reveals that all have a phase on or near that of eccentricity. This close clustering of phases rules out the long time constants for 100,000-year ice sheets required by the 1993 SPECMAP model.A new hypotheses presented here revives elements of an earlier CLIMAP view (Hays et al., Science 194 (1976a) 1121) but adds a new assessment of the role of greenhouse gases.As proposed by Milankovitch, summer (mid-July) insolation forces northern hemisphere ice sheets at the obliquity and precession periods, with an ice time constant derived here of 10,000 years. Changes in ice volume at 41,000 years drive ice-proximal signals (SST, NADW, dust) that produce a strong positive CO₂ feedback and further amplify ice-volume changes. At the precession period, July insolation forces ice sheets but it also drives fast and early responses in CH₄ through changes in tropical monsoons and boreal wetlands, and variations in CO₂ through southern hemisphere processes. These CH₄ and CO₂ responses enhance insolation forcing of ice volume.Climatic responses at 100,000 years result from eccentricity pacing of forced processes embedded in obliquity and precession cycles. Increased modulation of precession by eccentricity every 100,000 years produces 23,000-year CO₂ and CH₄ maxima that enhance ablation caused by summer insolation and drive climate deeper into an interglacial state. When eccentricity modulation decreases at the 100,000-year cycle, ice sheets grow larger in response to obliquity forcing and activate a 41,000-year CO₂ feedback that drives climate deeper into a glacial state. Alternation of these forced processes because of eccentricity pacing produces the 100,000-year cycle. The 100,000-year cycle began 0.9 Myr ago because gradual global cooling allowed ice sheets to survive during weak precession insolation maxima and grow large enough during 41,000-year ice-volume maxima to generate strong positive CO₂ feedback.The natural orbital-scale timing of these processes indicates that ice sheets should have appeared 6000–3500 years ago and that CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations should have fallen steadily from 11,000 years ago until now. But new ice did not appear, and CO₂ and CH₄ began anomalous increases at 8000 and 5000 years ago, respectively. Human generation of CO₂ and CH₄ is implicated in these anomalous trends and in the failure of ice sheets to appear in Canada.     

Investigating the sensitivity of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 3 to paleoclimatic boundary conditions

We present atmospheric simulations of three different time slices of the late Quaternary using the ECHAM 3 general circulation model in T42 resolution. In this work we describe the results of model runs for the time slices 6000 years BP (last climate optimum), 21 000 BP (last glacial maximum) and 115 000 years BP (glacial inception). Although the solar insolation is known for all time slices, a complete data set of the other boundary conditions which are necessary for running the atmospheric model exists only for the last glacial maximum in the form of the CLIMAP reconstruction. For the other two time slices, which are interglacial states like the modern climate, sea surface temperatures, land albedo and ice sheet topography are kept at modern values and only the solar insolation is changed appropriately. The response of the model to solar insolation changes is quite reasonable. The modelled anomalies are small and roughly opposite in sign for 6000 BP and 115 000 BP, respectively. In the case of last glacial maximum, the glacial ice sheet topography and ice albedo produce a much larger climate anomaly in the model. However, to enable a real test of model performance under glacial boundary conditions, the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, which are now known to be partly inaccurate, should be replaced by an updated “state-of-the-art” reconstruction.     

A radiometric calibration of the SPECMAP timescale

The astronomical theory of climate change asserts that Earth's climate is affected by changes in its orbit, which vary the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation. This theory is the basis of the orbitally tuned SPECMAP timescale. A key constraint for this important chronology was the mid-point of the Penultimate Deglaciation, initially dated to 127,000 years ago. Recent work suggests this event may be considerably older, casting doubt on the astronomical theory, the SPECMAP timescale, and the accuracy of orbitally tuned chronologies. Difficulties with U/Th coral dating of sea-level events have impeded progress on this problem, because most corals are not closed systems. Here, we use a new approach to U/Th dating that corrects for open-system behavior and produces a sea-level curve of sufficient resolution to confidently correlate with SPECMAP over the last 240,000 years, permitting a reassessment of both this critical chronology and a central tenet of climate change theory. High-precision ages for 24 oxygen isotope events provide a 240,000-year chronology for marine δ¹⁸O records that is independent of orbital tuning assumptions. Although there appear to be significant differences between the radiometric and orbitally tuned timescales near the lastglacial maximum and at the Marine Isotope Stage 7/6 boundary, a comparison of radiometric and SPECMAP ages for identical isotope events suggest that the SPECMAP timescale is quite accurate and that its errors were, in general, overestimated. Despite suborbital complexity, orbital cyclicity is clearly evident in our record. High-amplitude sea-level oscillations at periods greater than 20,000 years are very close in phase to summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Although sea-level changes cannot be uniquely tied to a specific season or latitude of insolation forcing, the simplest explanation is that long-period, high-amplitude sea-level change is linked to Northern Hemisphere insolation forcing. These results validate the principles of orbital tuning and suggest such timescales are generally robust.     

全球早白垩世大规模岩浆活动、铁矿床形成及与气候变化的可能耦合关系

地球系统科学是当今地球科学的研究前缘,早白垩时期全球气候经历了巨大的变化,前人为此做了大量的研究工作,但就铁矿形成与环境变化方面的研究还鲜见人提及。本文针对早白垩世大规模岩浆活动、铁矿成因、温室气体的释放及对气候变化的可能耦合关系做探索性的研究工作。本文主要通过大数据统计、整理分析、制图对比等科学手段,论证早白垩世各重要地质事件之间的耦合关系。发现早白垩世的大规模岩浆活动和铁矿爆发巅峰期、陆相红层的出现有着非常吻合的时间一致性。推测早白垩世时期大规模岩浆活动以及铁矿床的形成释放大量CO_2温室气体。大气中CO_2温室气体含量急剧增加导致大气环境温度升高,Fe~(2+)变成Fe~(3+)导致了大陆红层的形成;大气中CO_2温室气体含量急剧增加也导致了大气中氧气含量变低,致使后生生物为了适应这种极端环境气候个体趋向于小型化。因此,铁矿床爆发式成矿作用间接地导致了当时气候环境变化和生物演化方向。在当今面临的全球变暖的大环境下,我们更要加深了解和我们当代很相似的晚中生代时期,以便更加主动的应对以后的气候环境变化和生物发展。     

Spatial and temporal variability of Holocene temperature in the North Atlantic region

The early Holocene climate of the North Atlantic region was influenced by two boundary conditions that were fundamentally different from the present: the presence of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and higher than present summer solar insolation. In order to assess spatial and temporal patterns of Holocene climate evolution across this region, we collated quantitative paleotemperature records at sub-millennial resolution and synthesized their temporal variability using principal components analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals considerable spatial variability, most notably in the time-transgressive expression of the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Most of the region, but especially areas peripheral to the Labrador Sea and hence closest to the locus of LIS disintegration, experienced maximum Holocene temperatures that lagged peak summer insolation by 1000-3000 years. Many sites from the northeastern North Atlantic sector, including the Nordic Seas and Scandinavia, either warmed in phase with maximum summer insolation (11,000-9000 years ago) or were less strongly lagged than the Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea region. These spatially complex patterns of Holocene climate development, which are defined by the PCA, resulted from the interplay between final decay of the LIS and solar insolation forcing.     

近40 a来青藏高原地区总辐射变化特征分析

利用青藏高原及周边22个日射站近40 a的总辐射及日照百分率资料确定了Angstrom-Prescott模型(APM)系数, 结合高原及毗邻地区116个地面站的资料估算了高原地区近40 a的总辐射. 结果表明: 高原主体光照充沛, 年均日照时数可达3000 h以上, 有较好的利用前景; 总辐射40 a平均年总量在高原西部为高值区, 此高值带向东北和东南延伸, 其中北支可抵达内蒙古高原.年代际变化在高原及周边地区不一致, 但从整体上看, 总辐射距平值60、 70年代为正值, 表明这一时期高原总辐射增大; 80、 90年代总辐射距平为负, 这一时期总辐射减小. 火山活动是该时段总辐射减小的一个重要原因; 总辐射随着纬度的增大而减小, 随着海拔、 日照百分率的增大而增大. 纬度、 海拔、 日照3个因子中, 日照是总辐射的一个主要影响因子, 纬度对总辐射影响较大, 海拔对总辐射影响较小; 高原地区总辐射变差系数大值区在高原西部. 就平均状况而言, 高原地区总辐射变差系数仅为0.031, 表明高原地区总辐射波动相对较小, 总辐射较稳定.     

云南华坪全新世大暖期百年尺度的季风气候的石笋记录

通过对云南华坪葫芦洞FL4石笋进行高精度的ICP—MS—230Th/U测年和高分辨率的碳、氧同位素分析,建立了该地区6 060-4 185 a BP间高分辨率的西南季风气候变化时间序列,进而揭示了该时段发生的3次季风减弱事件。 这3次百年尺度（持续时间为90～240a）的干旱寒冷事件,分别发生在6 060－5 950 a BP、5 380－5 140 a BP、4 810-4 620 a BP,呈台阶状演变;而石笋的碳同位素记录揭示了2次强降水事件,分别发生在5 503－5 443 a BP和4 210-4 185 a BP,持续时间分别为25a和60a。石笋碳、氧同位素记录的西南季风减弱以及强降水事件明显受太阳辐射强度的控制。分辨率为3~10 a的碳、氧同位素记录表明,在百年尺度的西南季风气候变化上,叠加了一系列十年尺度的气候突变事件,呈锯齿状的高频波动。这些短时间尺度的季风气候波动事件与树轮14C 残差、冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的可比性,可能主要是受中低纬度太阳辐射强度以及北半球大气环流的影响,太阳辐射强度的变化是控制印度季风的快速推进或退出(萎缩)以及百年尺度上的气候波动的主要动因。      

盆地金属矿穿透性地球化学勘查模型与案例

近20年来,越来越多的大型金属矿床在盆地内部及其边缘被发现。传统的勘查地球化学方法对盆地及盆山边缘覆盖区无能为力,深穿透地球化学探测技术为解决盆地及其边缘覆盖区找矿难题提供了一种行之有效的手段。文章通过对沉积砂岩盆地铀矿、火山岩盆地银多金属矿、变质岩盖层铜镍矿和沉积盖层金矿开展探测试验,得出:(1)砂岩型铀矿中活动性铀主要以铀酰络阳离子的形式存在,铀酰络阳离子很容易受地下水运动及蒸发蒸腾作用而发生迁移,迁移通道包括砂岩的孔隙、构造裂隙等,到达地表后,铀酰络阳离子易与土壤中带负电的黏土矿物结合而赋存其中,使用微细粒分离和活动态提取两种方法均能圈定矿致异常;(2)火山岩盆地中,与火山岩近乎同期形成的矿床,矿床形成过程中含矿流体携带成矿元素银、金、铜等沿构造裂隙运移,迁移到地表后被土壤中的黏土矿物所吸附,使用土壤活动态测量和微细粒分离测量均能有效圈定已知矿体,异常直接位于矿体上方;(3)变质岩盆地超基性岩体在侵位过程中,岩体与变质岩接触带将产生大量的构造裂隙,因此当流体通过岩体与围岩接触带时,将携带矿体中铜、镍向上迁移至地表,形成环状异常;(4)洛宁盆地金矿成矿过程中,成矿元素金、银等以络合物、纳米级单质或合金等形式通过流体携带顺着构造破碎带向上迁移,地表岩石风化发生成矿元素解离,后期被黄土覆盖,矿体或岩石解离的化合物或纳米颗粒可以穿过黄土孔隙向上迁移至地表,并赋存于表层黄土的细粒级黏土中,因此采用土壤微细粒分离测量可圈出矿致异常。本文根据深穿透地球化学方法应用效果,异常的形态,并结合盖层的特点,成矿元素的存在形式、迁移方式以及在地表的赋存状态,初步建立了盆地金属矿深穿透地球化学勘查模型,为盆地盖层区地球化学勘查提供了理论与技术支撑。     

大洋环流型式转换在冰期旋回中的作用及经典第四纪冰期理论质疑(续)

大洋环流型式转换在冰期旋回中的作用及经典第四纪冰期理论质疑(续)汉景泰Ｗ．Ｓ．Ｆｙｆｅ(加拿大西安大略大学地质系)４问题及讨论大洋环流－气候学说认为从冰期到间冰期海洋－大气系统全球性巨型再组合导致了末次冰期的终止。     

ROLE OF ISLAND ARCS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EARTH'S STRUCTURE

Convincing geological data show that oceanic structure of the earth's crust is secondary and formed as the result of destruction and basification of the continental crust. This process goes on under conditions of tension, of deep fault formation, and of strong basaltic volcanism.

Analysis of the structure and history of development of island arcs gives evidence enough to distinguish two types. Island arcs of the first type represent arching folded ranges, similar to continental folded arcs. They were formed in geosynclines, but in the process of basification the supporting interior massifs subsides, while the arcs themselves are preserved in the form of curved bands of the continental crust within the oceanized areas (Japan, Indonesia, the Antilles). During a process involving tension of the earth's crust these weakened geosynclinal zones became areas of large fracture formation initiating intensive volcanism.

Arcs belonging to the second type are not related to the previous geosynclinal development. They were formed as a direct result of tension of the earth's crust, in the environment of ocean development. The tension produced deep faults, and the curving of the trajectories of the tensional stresses in the process of fault growth gave rise to the arching of these faults. Being younger, arcs of the second type cross those of the first type.

The asymmetry of the Pacific Ocean is characterized by the fact that on the east the ocean is bordered by the Cordilleras and the Andes, forming a single weak zone, while on the western periphery of the ocean the crust resembles a mosaic with very heterogeneous structure.

Basification of the earth's crust and formation of oceans is the last known stage in the development of the earth, caused by radioactive heating of the earth's interior and subsequent smelting to tilt: surface of the deep material of the mantle. — author's English summary     

Vegetation and climate changes over the last 30 000 years on the Leizhou Peninsula,southern China,inferred from the pollen record of Huguangyan Maar Lake

A pollen record from Huguangyan Maar Lake documents regional palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes in southern China over the last 30 000 years. Huguangyan Maar Lake is located close to the South China Sea (SCS) coastline and is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM). The pollen assemblages show a succession of vegetation and climate changes. During the Last Glaciation, 30–15.8 cal. ka BP, the Huguangyan area was dominated by subtropical evergreen‐deciduous forest with grassland surrounding the lake, indicating a colder and drier climate than today. During 15.8–11 cal. ka BP, the study area experienced several climatic fluctuations. From 11 to 2 cal. ka BP, the climate shifted to warmer and wetter conditions. After the Holocene Optimum in the early Holocene, the temperature and precipitation decreased. The sediment record of the last 2000 years cannot be used to interpret natural palaeoclimate changes due to the intense anthropogenic influences. Overall, however, the Huguangyan pollen archive highlights the rapid responses of subtropical vegetation to insolation changes in southern China.     

我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗？谁驱动了亚洲季风的演化：一个瞬变模拟试验的启示

亚洲季风演化受到地球轨道参数强迫,尤其是岁差所引起日射变化的显著影响,但关于其驱动机制的争议仍然存在,且集中在“零相位”和“南半球潜热”两种假说上。两个假说都得到了部分地质证据的支持,因此亟需相应的数值模拟,尤其是长期瞬变试验的检验。长期瞬变模拟试验可以对气候的连续演变进行模拟,并能与地质证据进行对比,有助于深入认识亚洲季风系统演化的内在物理机制。但由于计算能力的匮乏,过去的古季风数值模拟多为“时间片”模拟,这使得季风变迁机理研究受到限制。文章通过一个海－气耦合模式的长期瞬变试验,讨论了轨道日射的变化特征,证明过去280ka亚洲夏季风降水对日射有十分显著的响应,且与北半球初夏日射变化相位接近,部分支持了“零相位”假说。同时,模拟结果还揭示了随意选取日射参考标尺会导致缺乏内在物理机制的位相关系,合理选择日射参考以及明确地质记录的气候学意义在古季风强迫－响应机制研究中十分重要。     

Did glacials start with global warming?

Correlation of paleoclimatic evidence with orbital changes shows that the build-up of polar ice accelerated when low obliquity coincided with perihelion in Northern Hemisphere winter. Under low obliquity the insolation was channeled to the tropics at the expense of both polar caps. As perihelion moved from winter solstice toward spring equinox, the solar beam in astronomic winter and spring became stronger than in summer and autumn. This orbital configuration under climate conditions like today would lead to warming of tropical oceans but cooling of the polar regions. The areally weighted global mean surface temperature, which is dominated by the low latitudes, would increase. Consequently, during the first millennia, the early glacial ice build-up was most likely accompanied by global warming. It was the associated increase of meridional insolation and temperature gradients, which were instrumental in the transition to a glacial.A significant part of the current global warming is due to the gradual temperature increase of the tropical oceans. As the changing orbital configuration today resembles that of the last interglacial/glacial transition, the warming is likely to have a natural component.