On the possibilities of premonitory swarms for three sequences of earthquakes of the Burma—Szechwan region

Short term spatial and temporal variations in seismicity prior to the three sequences of earthquakes of m_b 5.8 of the Burma—Szechwan region are studied. Six years (1971–1976) of ISC seismicity data, as reported in the Regional Catalogue of Earthquakes, are considered. During the period, six earthquakes of body wave magnitude m_b 5.8 occurred in four sequences. Of these, three sequences are preceded by swarm activity in the epicentral regions. Evison (1977b) suggested that the swarm before the sequences of large shocks is a possible long-term precursor. He derived the conclusion by analyzing earthquakes in New Zealand and California. The analysis of the seismicity data for the region under investigation supports Evison's view and suggests that a relation between swarms and sequences of large events exists. The precursory time period (i.e. the time from beginning of the swarm to the main shock) for the Szechwan earthquakes of m_b = 5.9 (Feb. 6, 1973) and m_b = 5.8 (May 10, 1974) and the Burma earthquake of m_b = 6.2 (Aug. 12, 1976) are 305, 317 and 440 days, respectively.     

Magnitude conversion problem for the Turkish earthquake data

Earthquake catalogues which form the main input in seismic hazard analysis generally report earthquake magnitudes in different scales. Magnitudes reported in different scales have to be converted to a common scale while compiling a seismic data base to be utilized in seismic hazard analysis. This study aims at developing empirical relationships to convert earthquake magnitudes reported in different scales, namely, surface wave magnitude, M _S, local magnitude, M _L, body wave magnitude, m _b and duration magnitude, M _d, to the moment magnitude (M _w). For this purpose, an earthquake data catalogue is compiled from domestic and international data bases for the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. The earthquake reporting differences of various data sources are assessed. Conversion relationships are established between the same earthquake magnitude scale of different data sources and different earthquake magnitude scales. Appropriate statistical methods are employed iteratively, considering the random errors both in the independent and dependent variables. The results are found to be sensitive to the choice of the analysis methods.     

Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources

Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of M_W 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Long-term changes in teleseismic P residuals at new zealand stations

Teleseismic P residuals in New Zealand have been studied to examine the hypothesis that they change prior to a local earthquake. The period 1965 to 1977 has been used, and to provide a statistically significant sample a six-monthly sliding mean has been calculated for all data from earthquakes

1. (a) more than 25 degrees away, and

2. (b) with a residual less than 3 seconds.

Results are discussed for all New Zealand seismograph stations where sufficient teleseismic arrivals have been reported, and are compared with the results from Scott Base, Antarctica, which is situated in an area devoid of local earthquakes.The study reveals a complex situation with certain events being well correlated with changes in residuals, and others showing no correlation at all. Moreover, some changes in residual occur at times of quiet seismic activity.A dominant feature of plots of mean residual versus time for each station is a gradual increase in P residual from about 1968 to 1975, followed by a slow decrease. No satisfactory explanation has been found for this long-term change in residual.The data detailed in this note was presented at the Earthquake Prediction Workshop, Canberra 1979, in the hope that a cause of the long-term drift might be suggested. No attempt has been made to analyse the short-term variations whilst the long term one remains unexplained.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Global regression relations for conversion of surface wave and body wave magnitudes to moment magnitude

A homogenous earthquake catalog is a basic input for seismic hazard estimation, and other seismicity studies. The preparation of a homogenous earthquake catalog for a seismic region needs regressed relations for conversion of different magnitudes types, e.g. m _b , M _s , to the unified moment magnitude M _w. In case of small data sets for any seismic region, it is not possible to have reliable region specific conversion relations and alternatively appropriate global regression relations for the required magnitude ranges and focal depths can be utilized. In this study, we collected global events magnitude data from ISC, NEIC and GCMT databases for the period 1976 to May, 2007. Data for m_b magnitudes for 3,48,423 events for ISC and 2,38,525 events for NEIC, M _s magnitudes for 81,974 events from ISC and 16,019 events for NEIC along with 27,229 M _w events data from GCMT has been considered. An epicentral plot for M _w events considered in this study is also shown. M _s determinations by ISC and NEIC, have been verified to be equivalent. Orthogonal Standard Regression (OSR) relations have been obtained between M _s and M _w for focal depths (h < 70 km) in the magnitude ranges 3.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.1 and 6.2 ≤ M _s  ≤ 8.4, and for focal depths 70 km ≤ h ≤ 643 km in the magnitude range 3.3 ≤ M _s  ≤ 7.2. Standard and Inverted Standard Regression plots are also shown along with OSR to ascertain the validation of orthogonal regression for M _s magnitudes. The OSR relations have smaller uncertainty compared to SR and ISR relations for M _s conversions. ISR relations between m _b and M _w have been obtained for magnitude ranges 2.9 ≤ m _b  ≤ 6.5, for ISC events and 3.8 ≤ m _b  ≤ 6.5 for NEIC events. The regression relations derived in this study based on global data are useful empirical relations to develop homogenous earthquake catalogs in the absence of regional regression relations, as the events catalog for most seismic regions are heterogeneous in magnitude types.     

Tectonics and maximum magnitudes of earthquakes

Maximum magnitude of earthquakes M_max expected in any distinct area is considered a consequence of both the tectonic features and the properties of the medium. An experimental problem was solved for the Caucasus where relationships were established between M_max and a complex of geological conditions for the “standard” areas well known both geologically and seismologically. The solution is a formula connecting M_max values with contributions of ten tectonic parameters expressed in terms of non-linear, monotonously increasing functions of amounts or rates of corresponding geological properties and processes.A map of calculated values of M_max based on the solution was compiled for the Caucasus as a result of spreading the relationships established from the standard areas over the entire region. Prognostic values of M_max were calculated and a similar map was also constructed for the Carpathian region.The detailed pattern of these maps and good coincidence of the calculated values of M_max with registered magnitudes of earthquakes in the Carpathian region make it possible to regard the method presented in the paper as a possibility for constructing a geological basis of seismic zoning.     

Empirical relationships between aftershock area dimensions and magnitude for earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea region

Fault dimension estimates derived from the aftershock area extent of 36 shallow depth (≤ 31 km) earthquakes that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea region have been used in order to establish empirical relationships between length, width, area and surface-wave/moment magnitude. This dataset consists of events whose aftershock sequence was recorded by a dense local or regional network and the reported location errors did not exceed on average 3–5 km. Surface-wave magnitudes for these events were obtained from the NEIC database and/or published reports, while moment magnitudes as well as focal mechanisms were available from the Harvard/USGS catalogues. Contrary to the results of some previously published studies we found no evidence in our dataset that faulting type may have an effect on the fault dimension estimates and therefore we derived relationships for the whole of the dataset. Comparisons, by means of statistical F-tests, of our relationships with other previously published regional and global relationships were performed in order to check possible similarities or differences. Most such comparisons showed relatively low significance levels (< 95%), since the differences in source dimension estimates were large mainly for magnitudes lower than 6.5, becoming smaller with increasing magnitude. Some degree of similarity, however, could be observed between our fault length relationship and the one derived from aftershock area lengths of events in Greece, while a difference was found between our regional and global fault length relationships. A calculation of the ratio defined as the fault length, derived from our relationships, to the length estimated from regional empirical relationships involving surface ruptures showed that it can take a maximum value of about 7 for small magnitudes while it approaches unity at Ms 7.2. When calculating the same ratio using instead global empirical relationships we see the maximum value not exceeding 1.8, while unity is reached at Mw 7.8, indicating the existence of a strong regional variation in the fault lengths of earthquakes occurring in the Mediterranean Sea region. Also, a relationship between the logarithms of the rupture area and seismic moment is established and it is inferred that there is some variation of stress drop as a function of seismic moment. In particular, it is observed that for magnitudes lower than 6.6 the stress drop fluctuates around 10 bar, while for larger magnitudes the stress drop reaches a value as high as 60 bar.     

Understanding different perspectives on the preservation of community and heritage buildings in the Wellington Region,New Zealand

The Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquake sequence of 2010–2012 caused unexpectedly extreme levels of damage and disruption, being an unparalleled event in New Zealand in terms of the damage extent. Christchurch’s heritage buildings were seriously damaged during these events, with churches especially affected in 22 February 2011 M _w 6.2 earthquake. During this earthquake, a total of 84% of the heritage unreinforced stone and 81% of the clay brick masonry churches in the Canterbury region were either considered unsafe (receiving red placards) or with restricted access (yellow placards). Following the earthquakes, authorities across New Zealand are reassessing the capacity of older buildings to resist earthquakes. Current legislation requires that a building judged as earthquake prone either be strengthened by retrofitting or be demolished within a legislated number of years. Many building owners are facing the problems of owning earthquake-prone buildings and lacking the funding to upgrade. This affects both community and heritage buildings, resulting in the likely abandonment or demolition of some buildings. To address the problem of the balance between life safety and preservation in the Wellington Region, this project gathered and compared the perspectives of the general public, church communities, heritage specialists, professional engineers, and local authorities to assist in balancing the interests of these stakeholders. As a result of the findings, several recommendations have been provided that include standardizing structural assessment processes and training, feasibility of additional public funding to upgrade buildings, new signage to increase public awareness of earthquake-prone buildings, and regular communication among stakeholders to understand and resolve differences.     

Relationships Between Fundamental Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Different Source Regions in Turkey

Turkey has been divided into eight different seismic regions taking into consideration the tectonic environments and epicenters of the earthquakes to examine relationships of the modal values (a/b), the expected maximum magnitudes (M_max) and the maximum intensities (I_max). For this purpose, the earthquakes for the time period 1900–1992 from the Global Hypocenter Data Base CD-ROM prepared by USGS, and for the time period 1993–2001 from the PDE data and IRIS data are used. Concerning the relationships developed between different magnitude scales and between surface wave magnitudes (M_S) and intensity for different source regions in Turkey, we have constructed a uniform catalog of M_S. We have estimated the values of M_max and I_max using the Gumbel III asymptotic distribution. Highest a-values are observed in the Aegean region and the lowest b-values are estimated for the North Anatolian Fault. Maximum values of a/b, M_max and I_max are related to the eastern and western part of the North Anatolian Fault and the Aegean Arc. The lowest values of all parameters are observed near the Mid Anatolian Fault system. Linear relationships have been calculated between a/b, M_max and I_max using orthogonal regression. If one of the three parameters is computed, two other parameters can be calculated empirically using these linear relationships. Hazard maps of M_max and I_max values are produced using these relationships for a grid of equally spaced points at 1°. It is observed that the maps produced empirically may be used as a measure of seismic hazard in Turkey.     

Shear‐wave splitting and earthquake forecasting

Seismic shear‐wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low‐level deformation of fluid‐saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress‐forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi‐Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress‐forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time‐delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time‐delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress‐forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled‐source cross‐hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress‐monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress‐forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time.     

Frequency-magnitude,depth, and time relations for earthquakes in an island arc: North Island,New Zealand

Analysis of over 1400 earthquakes in the North Island of New Zealand from 1955 to 1969, comprising all shocks with m_l ? 4.3 for shallow, and M_L ? 4.0 for deep events, reveals several empirical relationships between the depth and the equivalent radius of the area occupied by shocks, the number and density of the shocks, and the coefficient b and the maximum magnitude. The coefficient b increases linearly with depth from 1.0 for shallow earthquakes to 1.4 for those at a depth of 120 km, and then decreases to 0.75 at 300—350 km. The variation with depth shows clear inverse correlation with the distribution of maximum stress along the downgoing slab, calculated for several slab models by Smith and Toksöz. Similarly, the maximum magnitude at different depths correlates distinctly with the distribution of the principal stress. Time variations of the coefficient b and the rate of earthquake occurrence, for both shallow and deep earthquakes, have an oscillatory character, with a period of 7–8 years. These variations also imply that shallow and deep seismicity are mutually dependent.     

The Richter earthquake magnitude scale in South Australia

Richter magnitudes M_L have been determined for 718 well recorded South Australian earthquakes by converting amplitudes derived from existing seismograph stations to equivalent Wood‐Anderson amplitudes, and substituting in Richter's formula (Richter 1935), derived for such instruments and for Southern California. The magnitudes so determined were generally found to increase with distance A for each earthquake, at least for events at distances below a few hundred kilometres, reflecting lower attenuation of crustal S waves in South Australia.

A distance‐dependent correction, which must be subtracted from Richter magnitudes, was obtained by integrating the weighted least squares fit to the (A, dM_L/dA) data. The correction increases to one‐half of a magnitude unit at a distance of 400 km, and thereafter decreases smoothly to 0.3 units at 600 km. Station corrections, due to local geological variations, have also been determined. Values range from ‐0.6 to + 0.2 units.

Empirical relationships between the revised M_L scale and the previously used local magnitude scales m_L and M_N (White 1968; Stewart 1975) and the body wave magnitude scale m_b have been established. The latter yields results consistent with the well known Gutenberg‐Richter formula (Richter 1958)     

On the validity of time-predictable model for earthquake generation in north-east India

North-east India is seismically very active and has experienced many widelydistributed shallow, large earthquakes. Earthquake generation model for the region was studied using seismicity data [(1906–1984) prepared by National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC), Boulder Colorado, USA]. For establishing statistical relations surface wave magnitudes (M _s≥5·5) have been considered. In the region four seismogenic sources have been identified which show the occurrences of atleast three earthquakes of magnitude 5·5≤M _s≤7·5 giving two repeat times. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive main shock depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) and not on the following main shock magnitude (M _f) revealing the validity of time predictable model for the region. Linear relation between logarithm of repeat time (T) and preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) is established in the form of logT=cM _p+a. The values ofc anda are estimated to be 0–36 and 1–23, respectively. The relation may be used for seismic hazard evaluation in the region.     

Evaluation of deep crustal earthquakes in northern Germany – Possible tectonic causes

We present new evidence for seven deep crustal, intraplate earthquakes in northern Germany, a region regarded as an area of low seismicity. From 2000 to 2018, seven earthquakes with magnitudes of M_L 1.3–3.1, were detected at depths of 17.0–31.4 km. By placing the earthquake hypocentres in a geological three‐dimensional model, we can correlate two of the earthquakes with the Thor Suture, a major fault zone in this area. Five of the earthquakes group in the lower crust near the Moho, which implies that parts of the lower crust and the crust/mantle boundary in northern Germany act as a structural discontinuity on which deformation localizes. Numerical simulation implies that stress changes due to glacial isostatic adjustment most likely triggered these deep crustal earthquakes.     

Re-evaluation of minor events: The examples of the 1895 and 1909 Rome earthquakes

The city of Rome is subjected to moderate seismic risk due to both local and external seismicity. Up to now, the maximum intensity felt has never exceeded VIII MCS. The 1 November 1895 (I _o = VII) and 31 August 1909 (I _o = VI) earthquakes demonstrate that small local events can also cause damage in a large old city. In the present work, we have re-evaluated the intensity values of those two events by means of automatic processing. A comparison between the present results with geological evidence and previous studies is shown, especially for the historical centre of Rome. For the first time, the 1909 earthquake instrumental magnitudeM _L = 3.6 has been calculated from original recordings.     

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

First seismic record for intra-arc strike-slip tectonics along the Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone at the obliquely convergent plate margin of the southern Andes

A temporal seismic network recorded local seismicity along a 130 km long segment of the transpressional dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) in southern Chile. Seventy five shallow crustal events with magnitudes up to M_w 3.8 and depths shallower than 25 km were observed in an 11-month period mainly occurring in different clusters. Those clusters are spatially related to the LOFZ, to the volcanoes Chaitén, Michinmahuida and Corcovado, and to active faulting on secondary faults. Further activity along the LOFZ is indicated by individual events located in direct vicinity of the surface expression of the LOFZ. Focal mechanisms were calculated using deviatoric moment tensor inversion of body wave amplitude spectra which mostly yield strike-slip mechanisms indicating a NE–SW direction of the P-axis for the LOFZ at this latitude. The seismic activity reveals the present-day activity of the fault zone. The recent M_w 6.2 event near Puerto Aysén, Southern Chile at 45.4°S on April 21, 2007 shows that the LOFZ is also capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes and therefore imposing significant seismic hazard to this region.