Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey

Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.     

内蒙古西部地区震源参数反演

基于遗传算法,采用Atkinson方法,选取2009-2017年内蒙古数字地震台网记录的内蒙古西部地区M_L ≥ 2.7地震事件波形资料,反演得到83个地震的震源参数。分析结果表明：该地区的拐角频率、地震矩、零频振幅与震级之间的相关性较好,而地震矩与应力降以及应力降与震级之间呈弱相关性,地震矩与拐角频率呈良好负相关性。其中,应力降集中分布在0.7-20 MPa,当M_L > 3.6时,随着震级增大,应力降呈现较为离散的特征。     

An Investigation into the Earthquake Migration Patterns in Marmara Region,Turkey

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The seismic migration patterns can be associated with the existing geophysical setting, the tectonic movements and the geographical...     

内蒙古中西部地区震源参数研究

选取内蒙古测震台网2009—2016年内蒙古中西部M_L≥2.8中小地震波形记录,采用多台联合反演方法,计算该区中小地震震源谱参数,获得地震矩M₀、矩震级M_W、应力降Δσ和震源尺度r,利用线性回归,分析近震震级M_L、地震矩M₀、矩震级M_W、应力降Δσ和震源尺度r之间的关系。结果表明,各参数之间存在一定线性关系,内蒙古中西部地区应力降模型为增加应力降模型（ISD）。     

柯坪块体震源介质参数测定

应用2011年1月-2015年4月柯坪块体及周边数字地震台站（38°-42.5°N,75°-80.5°E）记录的3.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.0地震事件,结合柯坪块体介质品质因子和各台站场地响应,计算各地震应力降、地震矩、震源破裂半径、拐角频率等新震源参数,并研究各背景值变化特征及彼此间对应关系。结果表明：柯坪块体地区地震震级与地震矩、矩震级、震源尺度之间表现为较好的正相关性,与地震拐角频率之间呈负相关。地震矩与震源破裂尺度整体呈正相关,但当震源破裂尺度较小时,地震矩变化不大,当震源破裂尺度大于250 m时,地震矩随震源破裂尺度的增大变化较快。由柯坪块体应力降时间分布特征分析可知,研究区具有地震前应力降呈现高值异常、震后缓慢恢复低值的演化过程。     

Spectral analysis of body waves for earthquakes and their source parameters in the Himalaya and nearby regions

The source characteristics of 33 earthquakes with magnitude m_b between 4.4 and 6.0, which occurred in the Himalayan and nearby regions, are investigated using the records of the Hyderabad seismograph station. The P- and S-wave spectra of these events are interpreted in terms of Brune's seismic source model for estimating the source parameters, i.e., seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, average dislocation, apparent stress and the radiated energy. Seismic moments, M₀, vary between 0.3 × 10²⁴ and 9.0 × 10²⁶ dyne cm; source dimensions, r, between 4.3 and 18.6 km; stress-drops, Δσ between 0.3 and 151.6 bar; average dislocations, $\text{u}$ between 0.6 and 381 cm; apparent stresses, $\text{η}\text{σ}$ between 0.1 and 73.2 bar. The radiated energy, E_R is estimated by the spectrum integration method and is found to vary between 0.2 × 10¹⁸ and 9.3 × 10²² erg. In general, the stress drop and apparent stress are found to be high, indicating high stresses in these regions.     

Insight into the Crustal Structure of the Eastern Marmara Region, NW Turkey

In order to investigate crustal structure beneath the eastern Marmara region, a seismic refraction survey was conducted across the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone in north west Turkey. Two reversed profiles across two strands of the NAF zone were recorded in the Armutlu Highland where a tectonically active region was formed by different continents. We used land explosions in boreholes and quarry blasts as seismic sources. A reliable crustal velocity and depth model is obtained from the inversion of first arrival travel times. The velocity-depth model will improve the positioning of the earthquake activities in this active portion of the NAF. A high velocity anomaly (5.6–5.8 km s⁻¹) in the central highland of Armutlu block and the low velocity (4.90 km s⁻¹) pattern north of Iznik Lake are the two dominant features. The crustal thickness is about 26 ± 2 km in the north and increases to about 32 ± 2 km beneath the central Armutlu block in the south. P-wave velocities are about 3.95 km s⁻¹ to 4.70 km s⁻¹ for the depth range between about 1 km and 5 km in the upper crust. The eastern Marmara region has different units of upper crust with velocities varying with depth to almost 8 km. The high upper crust velocities are associated with Armutlu metamorphic rocks, while the low velocity anomalies are due to unconsolidated sedimentary sequences. The western side of Armutlu block has complex tectonics and is well known for geothermal sources. If these sources are continuous throughout the portions of the crust, it may be associated with a granitic intrusion and deformation along the NAF zone. That is, the geothermal sources associated with the low velocity may be due to the occurrence of widespread shear heating, even shear melting. The presence of shear melting may indicate the presence of crustal fluid imposed by two blocks of the NAF system.     

Source parameters determination for earthquakes in Kushiro,Japan considering source time function

This paper applies a new formulation to do moment tensor inversion for earthquakes in the Kushiro area of Japan. Comparing with conventional moment tensor inversion method, the new one takes the effect of source time function into consideration. For the inversion, best solution is obtained by minimizing the difference between the observed seismograms and the synthetic ones. And the best-fitting focal depth is determined from the variance reduction. The results indicate that half duration of source time function is proportional to the magnitude of earthquakes. Large earthquakes have long half duration, whereas that of moderate-small earthquakes is comparatively shorter. The focal mechanisms of all three earthquakes are of thrust fault type, which is mainly ascribed to the collision of the North American plate with the Eurasia plate in the late Cretaceous or Paleogene.     

安徽地区地震波衰减、场地响应及震源新参数的测定

根据安徽数字地震台网7个地震台的143条波形资料,研究了安徽地区的衰减模型和各台站的场地响应。采用三段几何衰减模型拟合,得到了安徽及邻近地区的几何衰减函数,得到安徽地区非弹性衰减Q值随频率f的关系为Q(f)=235.3×f0.616;7个台站的场地响应均无明显的放大效应,这与它们均处于岩石地基相符;并在本地区地震预测研究中尝试使用新参数,进行了初步的应用。     

Spectral Structure of Temperature Variations in the Midlatitude Mesopause Region

Long-term series of midnight temperature in the mesopause region have been obtained from spectral observations of hydroxyl airglow emission (OH(6-2) λ840 nm band) at the Tory station (52° N, 103° E) in 2008–2016 and Zvenigorod (56° N, 37° E) station in 2000–2016. On their basis, the Lomb-Scargle spectra of the variations in the period range from ~12 days to ~11 years have been determined. Estimates of the amplitudes of statistically significant temperature fluctuations are made. The dominant oscillations are the first and second harmonics of the annual variation, the amplitudes of which are 23–24 K and 4–7 K, respectively. The remaining variations, the number of which was 16 for the Tory and 22 for Zvenigorod stations, have small amplitudes (0.5–3 K). Oscillations with combinational frequencies, which arise from modulation of the annual variation harmonics, are observed in a structure of the variation spectra in addition to interannual oscillations (periods from ~2 to ~11 years) and harmonics of the annual variation (up to its tenth harmonic).     

Historical seismogram reproductions for the source parameters determination of the 1902, Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake

The majority of original seismograms recorded at the very beginning of instrumental seismology (the early 1900s) did not survive till present. However, a number of books, bulletins, and catalogs were published including the seismogram reproductions of some, particularly interesting earthquakes. In case these reproductions contain the time and amplitude scales, they can be successfully analyzed the same way as the original records. Information about the Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake, which occurred on August 22, 1902, is very limited. We could not find any original seismograms for this earthquake, but 12 seismograms from 6 seismic stations were printed as example records in different books. These data in combination with macroseismic observations and different bulletins information published for this earthquake were used to determine the source parameters of the earthquake. The earthquake epicenter was relocated at 39.87° N and 76.42° E with the hypocenter depth of about 18 km. We could further determine magnitudes m _B = 7.7 ± 0.3, M _S = 7.8 ± 0.4, M _W = 7.7 ± 0.3 and the focal mechanism of the earthquake with strike/dip/rake ? 260°± 20/30°± 10/90°± 10. This study confirms that the earthquake likely had a smaller magnitude than previously reported (M8.3). The focal mechanism indicates dominant thrust faulting, which is in a good agreement with presumably responsible Tuotegongbaizi-Aerpaleike northward dipping thrust fault kinematic, described in previous studies.     

京西北延庆—怀来盆地的QSH值和小震震源参数的测定

用在一个地震台接上到的同一震源区内的较小地震的振幅谱去除大地震的振幅谱，求得较大地震震源同频趋势的斜率。利用Ｑ值在０．０００１－１００Ｈｚ之间几乎是常数是特性，用网格搜寻法对较大地震的振幅谱因衰减造成的损耗进行补偿，同时确定自震源对地震吧途径上的介持的品质因数、拐角频率和补偿后的频谱的零频极限。用这种方法，利用中－欧合作北京西北怀来数字地震台网的记录，确定了延庆－怀来盆地的品质因数ＱＳＨ值并测定了     

Spectral parameters of volcanic tremors at etna

Volcanic tremors at Etna and Stromboli show two dominant peaks in the spectrum at 2.7 Hz and 4.0 Hz. A model is evaluated which attributes these peaks to weakly damped, harmonic oscillating sources in the upper part of the magma column.     

高频GPS和强震仪数据在汶川地震参数快速确定中的初步应用

高频GPS可以实时获取地表位移数据,在地震学中有十分重要的现实应用,比如快速获取震中、震级、地震烈度甚至震源破裂过程.本文以汶川地震为例,首先利用近场7个GPS台站数据反演震中位置,由于高频GPS和测震学确认的震相不一致,两种震中结果相距约15.7 km.然后对高频GPS和强震动数据进行了比较分析,我们的统计结果表明,尽管由于工作原理不同,高频GPS数据中的地震动峰值与强震记录相比存在明显差异,但是高频GPS记录的PGA、PGV和PGD同样可以作为计算地震烈度的指标.进而,使用SMBLOC程序对强震记录进行事后的基线偏移校正,得到与实时高频GPS精度相当的地表位移序列.最后,采用移动平均窗口对这些位移数据作平滑,基于最速下降法和OKADA模型,对汶川地震断层破裂的过程进行了回溯性准实时反演.结果表明,汶川地震主断层由西南向东北方向破裂,以14:28:04为基准,在震后20 s提供初始震级M_W7.0,震后70 s震级稳定在M_W7.8,但断层仍在破裂,在震后159 s根据位移波形判断事件基本结束.研究表明,实时地表位移数据可以快速准确获取强震震级和破裂方向,从而使得高频GPS将对现有地震预警系统提供很好的补充.

     

Ra in the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara

Water column distributions of²²⁶Ra were determined at stations in the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea as part of the 1988 Joint U.S.—Turkish Black Sea Expedition. Black Sea surface water²²⁶Ra concentrations were a factor of three to four lower than measurements made 20 years earlier. The most likely cause is increased removal of²²⁶Ra and Ba [35] due to increased surface biological activity; a secondary effect is decreased fluvial discharge and related dimunition of inputs by desorption from fluvial suspended sediments. The amount of²²⁶Ra missing from the surface waters of the Black Sea over this period is accounted for in the high-porosity surficial “fluff” sediment layer.

Throughout the Black Sea, depth profiles of²²⁶Ra exhibited pronounced maxima of approximately 25 dpm/100 L at aboutσ_θ = 16.2–16.3, in the vicinity of a bacterial maximum, but slightly shallower than the total dissolved Mn and Fe maxima (σ_θ = 16.4–16.5) reported by Lewis and Landing [38]. While the²²⁶Ra maximum may, in part, be linked to the cycling of Mn and Fe oxyhydroxides near theO₂H₂S interface, its distribution appears to be more plausibly explained as a result of the microbial breakdown of particulate organic matter and the subsequent release and partial dissolution of associated barite in this region.

A simple steady-state two-☐ model has been used to obtain a semiquantitative understanding of the behavior of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea. By incorporating reasonable estimates for the input and removal of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea, an excellent agreement between predicted and observed (1988)²²⁶Ra concentrations was achieved. The model suggests that the dominant variables controlling the distribution of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea are riverine input and cycling with Ba.     

2024年1月23日新疆乌什7.1级地震震源参数的初步分析

北京时间2024年1月23日2时9分,新疆阿克苏地区乌什县(41.26°N,78.63°E)发生7.1级地震。中国地震预警网于震后12.2 s产出首报预警信息,中国地震台网中心于震后3 min发布自动速报结果,震后13 min发布正式速报结果,同时联合多家单位启动地震应急产品产出工作,产出震源参数、地震构造、历史地震、余震精定位、震源机制和震源破裂过程等应急产品。结果显示,本次地震是一次发生在青藏高原西缘的逆冲型地震事件,余震展布呈NEE向; 主震破裂持续时间约15 s,主要能量约在震后8 s释放,最大位移量约2.3 m,破裂长度约32 km; 极震区推测烈度达Ⅷ度,区域涉及乌什县、阿合奇县,面积约4614 km²; 震中附近多个台站峰值加速度值大于该区设防标准,存在造成部分房屋和道路损坏的可能,经对比,与实际震害调查结果相吻合。     

Actinometric determination of turbidity parameters in India

Summary A study of the wavelength exponent of aerosol scattering in the Ångström relation for extinction by aerosol has been made from the ground-based measurments of direct solar radiation using Ångström pyrheliometer with and without Schott filters. It has been observed that in India, mainly for the middle part of the year this exponent is zero or even negative which means that the aerosol scattering is nearly neutral which is in marked contrast with the condition prevailing in middle latitudes. It is evident from the -values that the aerosol size distribution in India is far different from that prevailing in middle latitudes. At four representative stations in India, the values of the wavelength exponent and the atmospheric turbidity coefficient have been determined using the method introduced byÅngström [1,2]) and are discussed here.     

Tomographic inversion for microseismic source parameters in mining

We propose a new method for inverting source function of microseismic event induced in mining. The observed data from microseismic monitoring during mining are represented by a wave equation in a spherical coordinate system and then the data are transformed from the time-space domain to the time-slowness domain based on tomographic principle, from whichwe can obtain the signals related to the source in the time-slowness domain. Through analyzing the relationship between the signal located at the maximum energy and the source function, we derive the tomographic equations to compute the source function from the signals and to calculate the effective radiated energy based on the source function. Moreover, we fit the real amplitude spectrum of the source function computed from the observed data into the ?? ^?2 model based on the least squares principle and determine the zero-frequency level spectrum and the corner frequency, finally, the source rupture radius of the event is calculated and The synthetic and field examples demonstrate that the proposed tomographic inversion methods are reliable and efficient