The Forest in the Future: A Response to Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Abstract

In this commentary, we highlight some of the strengths of the bibliometric analysis conducted by Qin et al. that examines the relationships between environmental and natural resource sociologies through citation networks, coauthorship, and keyword usage. We also suggest some ways that the analysis could be expanded or built upon, and ideas for further distinct, but related, inquiry. We also reflect on our own identification, training, and mentoring within the two subfields and draw upon responses from a small purposefully selected sample of other early/mid-career environmental and natural resource sociologists to start a conversation about what the relationship between the two fields might look like in the future.     

Responding to the consequences of uncertainty in geographical data

The presence of uncertainty in geographical data has the potential to expose users to undesirable consequences in their decision making. Accordingly, our efforts to understand uncertainty seek to (a) avoid the use of data that are not suitable for their intended purpose (that is, data whose consequences are unacceptable), (b) to reduce any undesirable consequences to an acceptable level, and (c) to devise ways of living with undesirable data when the adverse consequences caused by poor data do not alter our ultimate decision choice. To assist this task, we propose an approach where the adverse consequences of uncertainty caused by the use of unsuitable geographical data are expressed in terms of risk. In this paper we first show that risk management offers geographical data users a range of options for responding to the adverse consequences of data uncertainty, and secondly we present and discuss the various risk response options.     

邮轮旅游研究的回顾与前瞻——基于国外英文期刊论文的评述

世界上邮轮萌芽于19世纪初,而真正携带游客的邮轮旅游则主要开始于19世纪中叶。邮轮旅游从最初主要为社会精英和富人阶层参与的简单社会活动,发展至今日已成为一种大众化的市场现象。国外有关邮轮旅游的研究开始于20世纪60年代,迄今已积累有非常丰富的研究成果,有关理论和研究方法日臻成熟。相比之下,我国的邮轮旅游业则刚刚起步,有关研究远为滞后,亟需了解国外邮轮旅游发展的成功经验,以及借鉴国外学者的有关研究成果。在广泛综合前人相关研究的基础上,系统总结了国外邮轮旅游研究在理论、观点、方法、实践等方面取得的成就,并对目前研究存在的一些不足和未来研究应注意的问题进行展望,希望研究结论可以为促进中国邮轮旅游的健康发展,引导中国学者开展有关研究提供科学参考。     

The long-term thermal consequences of rifting: implications for basin reactivation

The attenuation of the continental crust during rifting and the subsequent filling of the rift‐related accommodation alter the long‐term thermal and mechanical state of the lithosphere. This is primarily because the Moho is shallowed due to density contrasts between the sediment fill and the crust, but also reflects the attenuation of the pre‐existing crustal heat production and its burial beneath the basin, as well the thermal properties of the basin fill. Moho shallowing and attenuation of pre‐existing heat production contribute to long‐term cooling of the Moho and thus lithospheric strengthening, as has been pointed out in many previous studies. In contrast, basin filling normally contributes to significant Moho heating allowing the possibility of long‐term lithospheric weakening, the magnitude of which is dependent on the thermal properties of the basin‐fill and the distribution of heat sources in the crust. This paper focuses on the thermal property structure of the crust and basin‐fill in effecting long‐term changes in lithospheric thermal regime, with particular emphasis on the distribution of heat producing elements in the crust. The parameter space appropriate to typical continental crust is explored using a formalism for the heat production distributions that makes no priori assumptions about the specific form of the distribution. The plausible parameter space allows a wide range in potential long‐term thermal responses. However, with the proviso that the accommodation created by the isostatic response to rifting is essentially filled, the long‐term thermal response to rift basin formation will generally increase average crustal thermal gradients beneath basins but cool the Moho due to its reduction in depth. The increase in the average crustal thermal gradient induces lateral heat flow that necessarily heats the Moho along basin margins, especially in narrow rift basins. Using coupled thermo‐mechanical models with temperature sensitive creep‐parameters, we show that such heating may be sufficient to localise subsequent deformation in the vicinity of major basin bounding structures, potentially explaining the offset observed in some stacked rift basin successions.     

城市人工地貌过程对城市化的响应——以大连市为例

城市人工地貌是城市中由人类活动作用形成的各种高低起伏的人工建筑体的组合形态,随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市人工地貌的发育表现出了一定的规律。本文以大连市为例,建立了城市人工地貌发育过程对城市化的响应模型,同时,研究了城市人工地貌发育与城市化进程变化的耦合系数,在此基础上分析了城市人工地貌过程对城市化进程变化的响应,最后得出了大连城市人工地貌在城市化作用下的发育规律。     

时代、社会与真正的知识分子——兼论许倬云先生的思想及其影响

面对前所未有的大变局,知识分子需要深入理解时代、社会与自身的关系。知识分子受时空和社会环境所制约和影响,但也存在思想超越时空和社会的可能性。以历史学家许倬云先生为例,通过现身说法,深入阐发和延伸探讨了他所提出的知识分子的问题,指出知行合一与身体力行是知识分子的精神。真正的人文主义体现为对学术与人生的饱满热情和敏锐洞察,既有价值理念也有思想深度,并将知识内化为行动传递下去。只有发现并立足于真实的人性和生活,知识分子才有超越的可能性。认清世界和自我的限度,竭尽所能地突破或超越这种限度,其实就是在面向未来和创造未来。     

A Method of Analysing Stream Channel Response to Environmental Change: Gauge data for the Tully River

Gauging data are available from numerous streams throughout Australia, and these data provide a basis for historical analysis of geomorphic change in stream channels in response to both natural phenomena and human activities. We present a simple method for analysis of these data, and a brief case study of an application to channel change in the Tully River, in the humid tropics of north Queensland. The analysis suggests that this channel has narrowed and deepened, rather than aggraded: channel aggradation was expected, given the intensification of land use in the catchment, upstream of the gauging station. Limitations of the method relate to the time periods over which stream gauging occurred; the spatial patterns of stream gauging sites; the quality and consistency of data collection; and the availability of concurrent land-use histories on which to base the interpretation of the channel changes.     

Ecological constraints on and consequences of land use heterogeneity: A case study of the Mongolian Gobi

Mongolian herders are transhumant and therefore follow a specific land use pattern. To understand their movements through a case study, we mapped and superimposed their seasonal camps on a vegetation map and a digital elevation model. We also questioned them about the reasons justifying the locations of their camps, and how they use the surrounding land. It appears that vegetation quality may play a role only in summer, whereas topography is a key driver during 3 seasons. In winter, herders seek shelter against cold winds in rugged places exposed to the south, while in spring and summer, they seek flat places. In spring, to have a clear view of their newborns and in summer, to allow wind to reduce the insect discomfort. Moreover, most of the livestock species stay within a certain distance of the camps depending on the season, but which never exceeds 5.1 km. This leads to a land use pattern where livestock is restrained to specific areas according to the season. Interestingly, during the growing season, when plants are most sensitive to defoliation, most livestock is concentrated on 30.92% of the site surface. Such information is important for range scientists working on grazing impacts at large scales.     

Response to Smalley's discussion of 'A call for Australian loess'

A concise response to Smalley's discussion of my 'Call for Australian loess' paper ( Haberlah 2007 , Area 39 224–9) elaborating on past and possible future Australian contributions to the international loess debate. The suggested idea of dividing loess into three separate categories 'glacial loess', 'desert loess' and 'mountain loess' is questioned by emphasising common links.     

Response of Plant Community Carbon and Nitrogen Stoichiometry to Experimental Warming on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Low temperature is an important limiting factor for alpine ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. This study is based on data from on-site experimental warming platforms (open top chambers, OTC) at three elevations (4300 m, 4500 m, 4700 m) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry characteristics of plant communities, both above-ground and below-ground, were observed in three alpine meadow ecosystems in August and September of 2011 and August of 2012. Experimental warming significantly increased above-ground nitrogen content by 21.4% in September 2011 at 4500 m, and reduced above-ground carbon content by 3.9% in August 2012 at 4300 m. Experimental warming significantly increased below-ground carbon content by 5.5% in August 2011 at 4500 m, and the below-ground ratio of carbon to nitrogen by 28.0% in September 2011 at 4300 m, but reduced below-ground nitrogen content by 15.7% in September 2011 at 4700 m, below-ground carbon content by 34.3% in August 2012 at 4700 m, and the below-ground ratio of carbon to nitrogen by 37.9% in August 2012 at 4700 m. Experimental warming had no significant effect on the characteristics of community carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry under other conditions. Therefore, experimental warming had inconsistent effects on the carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry of plant communities at different elevations and during different months. Soil ammonium nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen content were the main factors affecting plant community carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry.     

高新技术产业集聚的城市化响应与反馈机制研究

高新技术产业集聚与城市化存在互动机制。一方面,高新技术产业结构效应影响了城市化动力机制,集聚效应则促进了城市外部经济的发展,使城市化表现出不同的模式特征和地域特征;另一方面,城市化促进了高新技术发展所需要素资源的聚集与流动,为高新技术产业集聚提供人力资本保障,还为高新技术企业提供创新的源动力。文章以苏州高新区的高新技术产业发展和城市化互动关系佐证了这一理论,并认为建立二者之间切实可行的调控模式是当务之急。     

Hydrologic variation with land use across the contiguous United States: Geomorphic and ecological consequences for stream ecosystems

Using daily discharge data from the USGS, we analyzed how hydrologic regimes vary with land use in four large hydrologic regions that span a gradient of natural land cover and precipitation across the continental United States. In each region we identified small streams (contributing area < 282 km²) that have continuous daily streamflow data. Using a national database, we characterized the composition of land cover of the watersheds in terms of aggregate measures of agriculture, urbanization, and least disturbed (“natural”). We calculated hydrologic alteration using 10 ecologically-relevant hydrologic metrics that describe magnitude, frequency, and duration of flow for 158 watersheds within the Southeast (SE), Central (CE), Pacific Northwest (NW), and Southwest (SW) hydrologic regions of the United States. Within each watershed, we calculated percent cover for agriculture, urbanized land, and least disturbed land to elucidate how components of the natural flow regime inherent to a hydrologic region is modified by different types and proportions of land cover. We also evaluated how dams in these regions altered the hydrologic regimes of the 43 streams that have pre- and post-dam daily streamflow data. In an analysis of flow alteration along gradients of increasing proportion of the three land cover types, we found many regional differences in hydrologic responses. In response to increasing urban land cover, peak flows increased (SE and CE), minimum flows increased (CE) or decreased (NW), duration of near-bankfull flows declined (SE, NW) and flow variability increased (SE, CE, and NW). Responses to increasing agricultural land cover were less pronounced, as minimum flows decreased (CE), near-bankfull flow durations increased (SE and SW), and flow variability declined (CE). In a second analysis, for three of the regions, we compared the difference between least disturbed watersheds and those having either > 15% urban and > 25% agricultural land cover. Relative to natural land cover in each region, urbanization either increased (SE and NW) or decreased (SW) peak flows, decreased minimum flows (SE, NW, and SW), decreased durations of near-bankfull flows (SE, NW, and SW), and increased flow variability (SE, NW, and SW). Agriculture had similar effects except in the SE, where near-bankfull flow durations increased. Overall, urbanization appeared to induce greater hydrologic responses than similar proportions of agricultural land cover in watersheds. Finally, the effects of dams on hydrologic variation were largely consistent across regions, with a decrease in peak flows, an increase in minimum flows, an increase in near-bankfull flow durations, and a decrease in flow variability. We use this analysis to evaluate the relative degree to which land use has altered flow regimes across regions in the US with naturally varying climate and natural land cover, and we discuss the geomorphic and ecological implications of such flow modification. We end with a consideration of what elements will ultimately be required to conduct a more comprehensive national assessment of the hydrologic responses of streams to land cover types and dams. These include improved tools for modeling hydrologic metrics in ungauged watersheds, incorporation of high-resolution geospatial data to map geomorphic and hydrologic drivers of stream response to different types of land cover, and analysis of scale dependence in the distribution of land-use impacts, including mixed land uses. Finally, ecological and geomorphic responses to human alteration of land cover will have to be calibrated to the regional hydroclimatological, geologic, and historical context in which the streams occur, in order to determine the degree to which stream responses are region-specific versus geographically independent and broadly transferable.