Dynamic stress variations due to shear faults in a plane-layered medium

A complete set of expressions is presented for the computation of elastic dynamic stress in plane-layered media. We use a discrete-wavenumber reflectivity method to compute the stress field radiated by arbitrary moment-tensor sources. The expressions derived here represent an interesting tool for both-the observational and theoretical analysis of dynamic stress changes associated with earthquake phenomena. Dynamic stress changes associated with a strike-slip fault having unilateral rupture are shown. This modelling, which is similar to the 1992 Landers California earthquake, illustrates the effects of distance, directivity and depth on transient stress changes.     

A major seismogenic fault in a 'silent area': the Castrovillari fault (southern Apennines, Italy)

Large historical earthquakes in Italy define a prominent gap in the Pollino region of the southern Apennines. Geomorphic and palaeoseismological investigations in this region show that the Castrovillari fault (CF) is a major seismogenic source that could potentially fill the southern part of this gap. The surface expression of the CF is a complex, 10–13 km long set of prominent scarps. Trenches across one scarp indicate that at least four surface-faulting earthquakes have occurred along the CF since Late Pleistocene time, each producing at least 1 m of vertical displacement. The length of the fault and the slip per event suggest M =6.5-7.0 for the palaeoearthquakes. Preliminary radiocarbon dating coupled with historical considerations imply that the most recent of these earthquakes occurred between 380 BC and 1200 AD, and probably soon after 760 AD; no evidence for this event has been found in the historical record. We estimate a minimum recurrence interval of 1170 years and a vertical slip rate of 0.2-0.5 mm yr^-1 for the CF, which indicates that the seismic behaviour of this fault is comparable to other major seismogenic faults of the central-southern Apennines. The lack of mention or the mislocation of the most recent event in the historical seismic memory of the Pollino region clearly shows that even in Italy, which has one of the longest historical records of seismicity, a seismic hazard assessment based solely on the historical record may not be completely reliable, and shows that geological investigations are critical for filling possible information gaps.     

Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to the Izu–Oshima 1990 (M6.5) earthquake, Japan

A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.     

Changes in arable land in response to township urbanization in a Chinese low hilly region: Scale effects and spatial interactions

Rapid urbanization leads to losses in arable land; quantitatively analyzing the impact of urbanization on arable land is significant for arable land management. However, changes in arable land due to urbanization with scale and neighborhood effects remains poorly understood at the town scale. In this study, high-resolution historical land use data, landscape metric analysis and spatial regression were integrated to quantify the impacts of urbanization on arable land use change (abandonment and conversion) at spatial scales of 300 m–3300 m using a block size increment of 200 m and at the catchment scale in the town of Jinjing in subtropical central China. Arable land abandonment was the predominant type of arable land change and presented strong spatial autocorrelations at each spatial scale. Arable land was converted to tea fields because agricultural structure transformations were occurring around the urban cores, and the amount of arable land converted to residential land accounted for only a small proportion of the total arable land loss and had no spatial autocorrelation. The significance and robustness of the arable land changes impacted by urbanization had obvious scale effects and strong neighborhood effects in nearby regions. Compared with block scales, the catchment scale is an optimal scale for assessing the influence of urbanization and applying planning policy. Our results highlight the significance of incorporating spatial interactions in urbanization research, which can generate less biased estimations and consequently lead to proper policy implication and recommendations. In addition, multi-scale comparisons are helpful for better understanding the relationships between arable land changes and urbanization and provide further insights into the harmonious development of rural settlements and urban cores to preserve arable land.