Computer model of wind, waves, and longshore currents during a coastal storm

A mathematical model has been developed to forecast or hindcast wind, waves, and longshore currents during the passage of a coastal storm. Storm intensity is a function of the barometric pressure gradient which is modeled by rotating an inverted normal curve around the center of an ellipse. The length and orientation of the major and minor axes of the ellipse control the size and shape of the storm. The path of the storm is determined by a sequence of storm positions for the hindcast mode, and by interpolated positions assuming constant speed and direction for the forecast mode. The site location, shoreline orientation, and nearshore bottom slope provide input data for the shore position. The geostrophic wind speed and direction at the shore site are computed from the latitude and barometric pressure gradient. The geostrophic wind is converted into surface wind speed and direction by applying corrections for frictional effects over land and sea. The surface wind speed and direction, effective fetch, and wind duration are used to compute wave period, breaker height, and breaker angle at the shore site. The longshore current velocity is computed as a function of wave period, breaker height and angle, and nearshore slope. The model was tested by comparing observed data for several coastal locations with predicted values for wind speed, wave period and height, and longshore current velocity. Forecasts were made for actual storms and for hypothetical circular and elliptical storms.     

Meteorological analysis of the tornado in Ciudad Acuña,Coahuila State,Mexico, on May 25, 2015

Extreme meteorological conditions favor the development of severe storms and tornadoes that may have largely impacts on the population despite its relatively short life. Tornadic severe storms have been documented around the World. In Mexico (MEX), the study of the occurrence of tornadoes and severe storms is relatively new. In this research, we have selected an event of severe tornadic storm in Ciudad Acuña, Mexico. The storm was driven by a frontal system moving southward from USA converging with a warmer moist air flux from the Gulf of Mexico. The tornado strikes on the Northeast of Mexico, in Coahuila State, on May 25, 2015. Imagery of infrared channel from GOES 13 satellite and the presence of a hook echo in radar data of May 25, 2015, indicate a supercell structure. The maximum values of radial velocity were about ?20 and 15 m s^?1. In this study, the WRF model was used in order to simulate the mesoscale meteorological conditions of the tornado. Model simulations capture atmospheric features observed in Doppler radar. The simulated storm-relative helicity values were between 400 and 500 m² s^?2. The simulated convective available potential energy values were of 3000 J kg^?1. These values were higher than values for convective storms, located over the region of Ciudad Acuña in Mexico and Del Rio in USA. The supercell was a result of high humidity and temperature gradients, conditioned by frontal activity and moisture flux intensifications from the Gulf of Mexico.

     

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.     

Simulation of tornado over Orissa (India) on March 31, 2009, using WRF–NMM model

A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F3 on the Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected Rajkanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa in the afternoon of March 31, 2009. The devastation caused by the tornado consumed 15 lives and left several injured with huge loss of property. The meteorological conditions that led to this tornado have been analyzed. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 4 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of March 31, 2009. The atmospheric settings resulted from synoptic, surface, upper air, satellite and radar echo studies were favorable for the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm activity over Rajkanika. The model-simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the intense convective activity. The model has well captured the vertical motion. The core of the strongest winds is shown to be very close to the site of actual occurrence of the event. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 20 ms⁻¹, against the estimated wind speed of 70 ms⁻¹. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall rates are in good agreement with the observation as model simulated 35.4 mm against the observed rainfall of 41 mm over Chandbali. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF–NMM model in simulation of severe thunderstorm events.     

Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

     

Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai,China

This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987115000869

The predictability of dangerous atmospheric phenomena such as tornado outbreaks has generally been limited to a week or less. However, recent work has demonstrated the importance of the Rossby wavetrain phasing over the United States in establishing outbreak-favorable environments. The predictability of Rossby wavetrain phasing is strongly related to numerous climate-scale interannual variability indices, which are predictable many months in advance. To formalize the relationship between interannual variability indices and seasonal tornado outbreak frequency, indices derived from monthly mean Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields and Ni?o 3.4 indices for ENSO phase were compared to annual tornado outbreak seasonal frequencies. Statistical models predicting seasonal outbreak frequency were established using linear(stepwise multivariate linear regressione SMLR) and nonlinear(support vector regressione SVR) statistical modeling techniques.The stepwise methodology revealed predictors that are important in establishing outbreak-favorable environments at long lead times. Additionally, the results of the statistical modeling revealed that the nonlinear SVR technique reduced root mean square errors produced by the control SMLR technique by 28% and provided more consistent forecasts. A preliminary physical analysis revealed that years with high outbreak frequencies were associated with the presence of 500-mb troughs over the central and western US during the peak of outbreak season, while lower frequencies were consistent with ridging over the US or northwest flow over the Plains. These patterns support the results of the statistical modeling, which demonstrate the utility of geopotential height variability as a predictability measure of outbreak frequency.     

Dynamic analysis of emergency inter-organizational communication network under public health emergency: a case study of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China

Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning.

     

Assessment of wind speeds that damage buildings

A method to determine the wind speed to cause damage to buildings is described. The method is based on engineering calculations of wind loads generated on the weakest links of buildings such as the roof-to-wall joints of a wood-frame house. Data needed for the calculation include wind direction, building geometry, conditions of windows, doors and other exterior openings immediately before the occurrence of wind damage, and details of the weakest links that initiated the failure. The method can be used for estimating the maximum wind speed of a storm from an in-depth post-disaster investigation. Results of this study indicate that it takes no more than the wind speed of a F-2 tornado to completely destroy either a wood-frame house or a nonreinforced masonry building. The study supports the belief that the wind speed associated with F-3, F-4 and F-5 tornadoes are grossly overrated.     

Thunderstorm Hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta,Georgia metropolitan region

Most U.S. metropolitan regions have experienced urban “sprawl,” or the outward spreading of urban development from city centers. For cities lying in areas prone to severe weather, the sprawl phenomenon exposes greater numbers of developed areas and inhabitants to a variety of thunderstorm hazards. This study’s principal goal is to determine how urbanization growth patterns affect a region’s vulnerability to severe weather events. To assess how sprawl may impact vulnerability to tornadoes, hail, and convective wind events, an analysis examining potential loss may be utilized. This study employs two distinct approaches to examine how the Atlanta area’s rapid and extensive development during the latter half of the twentieth Century has affected its overall potential exposure to thunderstorm hazards. First, archived census data are used to estimate overall impacts from hypothetical significant tornado, nontornadic convective wind, and hail events occurring at different time periods throughout several locations in the Atlanta metropolitan region. Second, economic factors are integrated into the analysis, which assists in determining how these hypothetical severe event scenarios may have changed from a cost standpoint if they were to occur in 2006 as opposed to 1960.     

Tornado hazards on June 23 in Jiangsu Province,China: preliminary investigation and analysis

This paper reported a tornado hazard happened on June 23, 2016, in Yancheng city, Jiangsu Province. The moving footprint of this huge tornado was from west to east. Shuoji, Chenliang, Goudun, Banhu, Xingou, Wutan towns in Funing district and Sheyang town in Sheyang district were severely hit by this tornado. This tornado along with rainstorm and hailstorm had claimed 99 lives and caused more than 3800 flats to collapse as well as damaged 48 high-voltage circuits. As the cold air from northwest met the subtropical high pressure system that forms over relatively cool water bodies (i.e., Indian and Pacific Oceans), such a powerful meteorological phenomenon was initiated. The strong connective airflow intensified the development of this tornado. Based on the preliminary investigation and analysis of this tornado, cost-effective timber structures with adequate anchorage of the framing to foundations and adequate connection between walls and roofs may be recommended to ensure occupants safety and reduce potential damage in these extreme wind events. Additionally, it is suggested to utilize early warning system along with geographical information system (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS), and remote sensing (RS) (3S) to monitor and precast the occurrence of rainfall, hailstorm, and tornado hazards in future.

     

Diagnostic study and numerical simulation of the Bombay (India) Deluge

Bombay (latitude: 19.1°N, longitude: 72.9°E, altitude: 14 m asl) received unprecedented amount of rainfall, 94.4 cm in 24 h, from 26 to 27 Jul 2005. Observational and model simulation, based on Advanced Regional Prediction System, study of this extreme event is made. The thermodynamical assessment is made using vertical sounding in model simulation. Artificial thermal perturbation is introduced to initiate the instability for generation of vertical convection with assumption that convection is initiated due to the thermal forcings and neglecting the effect of mechanical perturbation (orographic forcings). Model could simulate the thermal nature of the storm as observed. Also, simulation shows the vigorous nature of thunderstorm with heavy downpour at the rate of 10 cm/h, which is close to the observed.     

Synoptic features and environmental conditions of the tornado outbreak on March 22, 2013 at Brahmanbaria in the east-central region of Bangladesh

This study evaluates the synoptic features and environmental conditions of Brahmanbaria tornado event that caused 36 fatalities, 388 injuries and huge damages of properties on 22 March, 2013. Various factors for initiation of that terrific event are investigated through analysis JRA-55 reanalysis (50 km horizontal resolution) data and Multi-functional Transport Satellite images by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, radar images, radiosonde data and three hourly synoptic data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department are used to verify the reanalysis data. The genesis of the tornadic storm is identifiable in the most unstable part of the study region. The satellite observations are found to useful to identify the location of convection occurrence region. The half hourly satellite images identify that the convection initiation started at the convergence area and the systems intensify and organize by the continuous moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal. Lower-level convergence coupled with strong wind shear and humidity gradient lift moist air aloft to trigger deep convection and the severe storm occurred. Energy Helicity Index seems a good predictor parameter for this specific case study.     

Thunderstorms over a tropical Indian station,Minicoy: Role of vertical wind shear

In this study, an attempt has been made to bring out the observational aspects of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms over Minicoy. Case studies of thunderstorm events have been examined to find out the effect of vertical wind shear and instability on strength and longevity of thunderstorms. Role of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms and its mechanism has been explored in this study. Results reveal that for prolonged thunderstorms high and low instability along with moderate to high vertical wind shear (moderate: 0.003 S⁻¹ ≤ vertical wind shear ≤ 0.005 S⁻¹ and high: > 0.005 S⁻¹) play a significant role in longevity and strength of thunderstorms. The mechanism of vertical wind shear in thunderstorms was investigated in a few cases of thunderstorm events where the duration of thunderstorm was covered by the radiosonde/rawin ascent observation taken at Minicoy. Empirical model has been developed to classify thunderstorm type and to determine the strength and longevity of thunderstorms. Model validation has been carried out for selected cases. Model could classify thunderstorm type for most of the cases of thunderstorm events over island and coastal stations.     

梁板式桩筏基础现场测试分析

风力发电工程是我国乃至世界可持续发展之路的重要一步,而梁板式风机基础是陆上风机基础的一种新型形式,梁板式风机基础的研究正受到学术界和工程领域的广泛关注。基于江苏射阳港风电项目,通过在风机基础底板下埋设土压力盒,桩内布设钢筋计,测算风机基础从风机施工至正常运行过程中的基底土压力分布和桩顶轴力。重点讨论风机处于施工过程中和正常运行状态下桩顶轴力的变化规律,分析桩土分担比,并将现场试验得到的基础内力与实际设计方法计算所得基础内力进行对比验证。结果表明,风机运行前,竖向荷载主要由内圈桩承担,风机运行后,外圈桩承担荷载增加,内圈桩承担荷载减小;风机运行后土体承担荷载较大,目前的设计方法不考虑土体的承载作用,计算结果偏于安全。     

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

A numerical study of storm surges caused by cold-air outbreaks in the Bohai Sea

Storm surges in the Bohai Sea are not only associated with tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones, but also cold-air outbreaks. Cold-air outbreaks attack China from four major tracks, with each track having its own prevailing wind over the Bohai Sea. As the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks can be converted into the surface wind, storm surges can be investigated by the pressure field of cold-air outbreaks entirely. This paper took the different major tracks, pressure field, and high wind period into consideration and constructed 20 scenarios to describe the actual situation of cold-air outbreaks. Based on the results modeled by FVCOM, the influence of various cold-air outbreaks on the maximum surge in the Bohai Sea and the probability of the surge elevation at three typical tide gauges were investigated. Finally, a powerful decision-making tool to estimate storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks was provided.     

Detection of hail through the three-body scattering signatures and its effects on radar algorithms observed in Romania

The Romanian National Meteorological Administration (NMA) radar network consists of five S-band and four C-band radars. Observation of convection in Romania through the Doppler radar network offered a new perspective in understanding the climatologic risk of certain regions and mesoscale environments. Highly organized convective systems, such as supercells, are better observed and their subsequent threat can be better anticipated during the nowcasting process using Doppler velocity fields and detection algorithms such as mesocyclones (MESO) and tornadic vortex signature (TVS). However, for warning purposes, these tools cannot be used without a subjective validation because of the associated errors and limitations of radar observations. In this paper several cases are presented where the presence of large hail inside the storm produced a radar artifact named three-body scatter signature (TBSS) that disturbed the Doppler velocity field. The cases presented were observed with S-band radars and were associated with hail reports on the ground. The first case shows a TBSS whose radial Doppler velocities are negative due to the falling hydrometeors. The second case is a less frequent event; there the Doppler velocities in the TBSS region are positive due to the updraft. The third case has both positive and negative values in the TBSS region; it ocurred in a supercell that affected the city of Varna in Bulgaria with large hail. The positive values were associated with the overhang region in the rotational updraft at upper heights, while the negative values in the regions outside the rotational updraft at lower heights, were associated with the downdrafts. Features produced by the TBSS have perturbed the output of the MESO and TVS algorithms by introducing false strong values of wind shear that have been interpreted as rotation. Thus false mesocyclonic and tornadic vortex signatures were generated. In some of the cases large hail and weak tornadoes were reported, so the presence of a TBSS was a challenge for the nowcasters. In the last part of the paper we analyze the link between the TBSS appearance with reports of large hail at the ground in 2009 within the coverage area of the Romanian S-band radars, which also cover parts of Hungary, Bulgaria, the Republic of Moldova and Serbia. The results show that the TBSS artifact is a strong indicator of large-size hail.     

对风暴流沉积说涵义与概念的商榷

国外一些地质学家提出风暴流沉积、风暴岩.强调系暴风(台风)的突变性与灾变性力量形成的沉积物.据笔者对旋涡流作用成因的观察与研究得知,旋风(台风、龙卷风、气旋)是形成旋涡流的动力源之一.但旋风本身不能直接在海水中摄取砂粒形成沉积物,必须通过海水旋涡流作用,才能形成沉积,这又有违风暴流沉积说原意,而变成旋涡流沉积作用了.况且,旋风流动速度可与声速相当,延续时间短,形迹不定,不易搬运与形成沉积物.     

Simulation of atmospheric states for a storm surge on the west coast of Korea: model comparison between MM5, WRF and COAMPS

High-quality informations on sea level pressure and sea surface wind stress are required to accurately predict storm surges over the Korean Peninsula. The storm surge on 31 March 2007 at Yeonggwang, on the western coast, was an abrupt response to mesocyclone development. In the present study, we attempted to obtain reliable surface winds and sea level pressures. Using an optimal physical parameterization for wind conditions, MM5, WRF and COAMPS were used to simulate the atmospheric states that accompanied the storm surge. The use of MM5, WRF and COAMPS simulations indicated the development of high winds in the strong pressure gradient due to an anticyclone and a mesocyclone in the southern part of the western coast. The response to this situation to the storm surge was sensitive. A low-level warm advection was examined as a possible causal mechanism for the development of a mesocyclone in the generating storm surge. The low-level warm temperature advection was simulated using the three models, but MM5 and WRF tended to underestimate the warm tongue and overestimate the wind speed. The WRF simulation was closer to the observed data than the other simulations in terms of wind speed and the intensity of the mesocyclone. It can be concluded that the magnitude of the storm surge at Yeonggwang was dependent, not only on the development of a mesocyclone but on ocean effects as well.