2011年初云南东部极端低温冰冻灾害天气气候特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAA再分析资料,国家气候中心74项环流指数及云南省122个观测站资料,结合诊断、合成和相关分析等方法,探讨2011年初云南东部极端低温冰冻灾害天气气候特征及成因,并与2008年初低温冰冻灾害进行对比分析。旨在寻找云南低温冰冻天气的预报着眼点,为提前做好防灾减灾工作提供决策依据。研究表明:500hPa高度场欧亚中高纬呈两槽一脊,西西伯利亚高压脊异常强大,贝巴之间为东西向横槽,东亚中高纬呈"+-+"的高度场距平分布,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏东偏弱,南海副高异常偏南偏弱是2011年1月云南东部频遭冷空气影响的大尺度大气环流背景。另外,相关分析发现NINO4区海温持续异常偏冷对应云南东部气温异常偏低。较2008年初持续近2个月的低温雨雪冰冻灾害相比,虽然2011年灾害影响时间较短,范围较小,但冷空气过程频发,昆明准静止锋长时间控制云南东部,最终造成近50年来的极端低温冰冻灾害。     

一次持续大暴雨过程新一代天气雷达回波特征分析

为探讨西北地区东部的持续大暴雨过程成因及预警指标,利用2010年7月22~23日500~700hPa大气环流背景及天气影响系统和西峰新一代多普勒天气雷达回波资料分析,结果得到:500hPa西太平洋副热带高压外围河套地区环境场的演变高压外围低涡发展及维持,是这次持续性大暴雨过程的大气环流背景和影响天气系统,700hPa强盛的水汽场输送场与汇聚作用为这次持续性大暴雨过程提供了充沛的水汽条件,随着500hPa河套地区低涡-切变辐合系统的准静止维持造成这次持续性大暴雨过程;大暴雨前1.5~9.7km垂直方向上,存在明显的东南风场与西南风场的切变,风向随高度顺转,对应持续的暖平流;天气雷达强度回波反射率因子≥40dBz,暴雨期间维持少变;径向速度回波的水平辐合和气旋性涡旋运动与河套低涡切变天气系统对应一致;垂直液态水含量≥35kg.m2的雨团范围大、持续时间长;云顶回波高度维持在8km以上,对监测预警持续大暴雨天气具有一定指示意义。     

2012年8月19～21日西藏持续性强降水的中尺度分析

对2012年8月19～21日西藏持续性强降水天气过程的成因进行分析。利用加密地面观测资料、FY一2C卫星TBB资料、常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对2012年8月19--21日西藏持续性强降水天气过程进行诊断和中尺度特征分析。此次强降水天气过程是在稳定的径向型环流背景下产生的,巴尔喀什湖附近东移南下的短波槽和500hPa低涡切变是造成此次降水过程的主要影响系统,西太平洋副热带高压边缘的西南暖湿气流为降水过程提供r有利的水汽条件;β中尺度对流云团的先后影响,为强对流发展提供了必要的热力、动力条件;而中层冷空气的侵入和强的垂直风切变加剧了大气层结的不稳定,为降水天气提供了有利的条件。该研究为西藏夏季降水的相关预报预测提供科学依据。     

湿位涡及其不可渗透性在江淮流域一次暴雨过程中的应用

为了对暴雨天气进行更准确地分析和提前预报,结合常规观测资料、NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,利用湿位涡正压项(MPV1)、斜压项(MPV2)及其不可渗透性原理,分析了2011年6月13日~15日发生在中国长江流域的一次暴雨过程。研究结果表明:暴雨区邻近850hPa上MPV1的零线,即正值与负值的过渡区,这对暴雨落区有指示作用。且湿位涡在850hPa上满足MPV10同时MPV20的条件,这种配置有利于强降水的产生,因此可作为预报暴雨的一个有效辅助工具。在850hPa上,湿位涡高值区与地面降水落区对应良好,根据湿位涡不可渗透性原理,若将MPV异常高值区与等θe线结合起来,能在长江流域的暴雨预报中起到良好的指示作用。     

2011年3月云南一次寒潮天气过程分析

2011年3月15日～18日是一次典型的南支槽与强冷空气相结合的天气过程,此次过程对云南省造成了强降温雨雪天气.为了研究此次天气过程的成因以及为今后类似天气过程提供预报思路,利用6h间隔的NECP 1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测资料和TBB黑体亮温资料,对此次天气过程进行天气学分析和诊断分析.分析结果表明:500hPa高度上中高纬度呈横槽型,横槽与高原东侧的低槽连接,槽后强劲的西北气流为这次寒潮天气过程带来强冷平流;南支槽的东移并加强使暖湿气流不断向云南境内输送;高低层冷暖气流交汇,低层切变线、地面冷锋的持续作用触发了此次降温雨雪天气.     

2011年3月云南一次寒潮天气过程分析

2011年3月15日～18日是一次典型的南支槽与强冷空气相结合的天气过程,此次过程对云南省造成了强降温雨雪天气.为了研究此次天气过程的成因以及为今后类似天气过程提供预报思路,利用6h间隔的NECP1°×1°再分析资料、常规观测资料和TBB黑体亮温资料,对此次天气过程进行天气学分析和诊断分析.分析结果表明:500hPa高度上中高纬度呈横槽型,横槽与高原东侧的低槽连接,槽后强劲的西北气流为这次寒潮天气过程带来强冷平流;南支槽的东移并加强使暖湿气流不断向云南境内输送;高低层冷暖气流交汇,低层切变线、地面冷锋的持续作用触发了此次降温雨雪天气.     

低纬高原一次强对流暴雨M_βCSs结构特征及成因的数值模拟分析

应用1°×1°NCEP全球再分析资料,采用非静力中尺度数值模式MM5(V3.6)对2003年6月发生在低纬高原地区一次特大暴雨过程进行数值模拟.分析表明:500hPa流场两高辐合形成的鞍型场是MβCSs发生的有利的环流条件;700hPa孟加拉湾气旋和中心位于湖北的反气旋外围偏南气流提供了有利的水汽条件;500hPaβ中尺度扰动和700hPa气流辐合是MβCSs产生的直接影响系统;低层暖湿高层干冷的配置、剧烈的垂直上升运动,低层辐合中高层辐散、高低空急流的耦合、高能高湿的不稳定能量、地形的抬升作用有利于诱发中尺度对流系统;本次强降水过程MβCSs的生命史较短,较强不稳定能量的迅速释放是本次降水突发性强、强度大、历史短的主要原因.     

皖北地区一次强对流天气过程的综合分析

利用常规和加密观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及多普勒雷达资料,对2007年8月2日安徽北部地区发生的一次强对流天气过程进行综合分析.结果表明:中低空切变线是此次强对流天气的触发系统,地面湿度突变线对飑线的生成及发展具有指示意义.低层850hPa低涡较强的辐合,与位于高空大风速带入口区右侧的强辐散的耦合作用,导致强对流天气发生区上空生成次级反环流圈.该反环流圈从北(南)方携带干冷(暖湿)气流下沉(上升),两者交汇进而引发强对流天气的发生.在雷达回波上,飑线生成前期,少数单体不连续地排列成线,但并未连通;飑线生成后,带状特征清晰,并且反射率因子大,多处呈现三体钉状散射体;速度回波上有成熟阶段的速度模糊现象以及消亡阶段出现的逆风区.雹暴的回波具有明显的V型缺口以及速度场上风速的辐合,当逼近雷达测站时,测站上空速度场上出现了牛眼结构.     

2011年7月陕西一次区域性暴雨过程分析

为了探索陕西区域性暴雨发生发展的机制,提高暴雨预报准确率,利用实况高空观测、自动站观测资料和NCEP1°×1°格点资料,采用天气学诊断方法,对2011年7月28日陕西区域性暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:500hPa西风槽、西太平洋副热带高压、700hPa及其以下的切变是这次暴雨的主要影响系统,低层大风速带和南海台风的远距离作用是暴雨增幅的重要因子;暴雨区具有强的能量锋和对流不稳定,降水产生在850hPa温湿能等值线密集区偏高值一侧;水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾和南海台风外围;辐合、辐散中心下移是强降水即将发生的一个信号,850hPa以下出现比湿猛增现象对位于秦岭以北的渭河流域暴雨预报有一定指导意义。     

浙中金华地区“2013.3.20”春季雷暴天气过程研究分析

为了探索春季强对流发生发展的机制,利用常规观测资料、MICAPS资料以及新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,采用天气学诊断方法,对2013年3月20日凌晨发生在浙中金华地区的一次大范围的强雷暴天气过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)高空槽和地面倒槽是此次强对流天气过程的主要影响系统;(2)高空三层为一致的西南急流,水汽输送强;(3)中低层急流附近存在强的垂直上升运动中心且几乎重合,500hPa到地面存在强的垂直风切变,动力条件好;(4)中低层深厚的暖平流与高层弱冷平流相互作用形成了上干冷、下暖湿的不稳定层结;(5)中层冷空气渗透,促使强对流进一步发展,风暴发展为中-β尺度飑线系统,但前沿无阵风锋产生;(6)飑线南段的超级单体风暴发展为非超级单体强风暴,在雷达图上表现为"弓形"回波,其顶点经过武义站时造成27.4m/s(10级)的瞬时大风;(7)VIL高值维持时间较短,不利于冰雹出现。     

Structure analyses of the explosive extratropical cyclone: A case study over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007

The synoptic situation and mesoscale structure of an explosive extratropical cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007 are investigated through weather station observations and data reanalysis. The cyclone is located beneath the poleward side of the exit of a 200 hPa jet, which is a strong divergent region aloft. At mid-level, the cyclone lies on the downstream side of a well-developed trough, where a strong ascending motion frequently occurs. Cross-section analyses with weather station data show that the cyclone has a warm and moist core. A ‘nose' of the cold front, which is characterized by a low-level protruding structure in the equivalent potential temperature field, forms when the cyclone moves offshore. This ‘nose' structure is hypothesized to have been caused by the heating effect of the Kuroshio Current. Two low-level jet streams are also identified on the western and eastern sides of the cold front. The western jet conveys cold and dry air at 800–900 hPa. The wind in the northern part is northeasterly, and the wind in the southern part is northwesterly. By contrast, the eastern jet carries warm and moist air into the cyclone system, ascending northward from 900 hPa to 600–700 hPa. The southern part is dominated by the southerly wind, and the wind in the northern part is southwesterly. The eastern and western jets significantly increase the air temperature and moisture contrast in the vicinity of the cold front. This increase could play an important role in improving the rapid cyclogenesis process.     

Effect of low-frequency Rossby wave on thermal structure of the upper southwestern tropical Indian Ocean

We investigate the influence of low-frequency Rossby waves on the thermal structure of the upper southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) using Argo profiles, satellite altimetric data, sea surface temperature, wind field data and the theory of linear vertical normal mode decomposition. Our results show that the SWTIO is generally dominated by the first baroclinic mode motion. As strong downwelling Rossby waves reach the SWTIO, the contribution of the second baroclinic mode motion in this region can be increased mainly because of the reduction in the vertical stratification of the upper layer above thermocline, and the enhancement in the vertical stratification of the lower layer under thermocline also contributes to it. The vertical displacement of each isothermal is enlarged and the thermal structure of the upper level is modulated, which is indicative of strong vertical mixing. However, the cold Rossby waves increase the vertical stratification of the upper level, restricting the variability related to the second baroclinic mode. On the other hand, during decaying phase of warm Rossby waves, Ekman upwelling and advection processes associated with the surface cyclonic wind circulation can restrain the downwelling processes, carrying the relatively colder water to the near-surface, which results in an out-of-phase phenomenon between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the SWTIO.     

Analyses of structure of planetary boundary layer in ice camp over Arctic ocean

The vertical structure of Planetary boundary layer over Arctic floating ice is presented by using about 50 atmospheric profiles and relevant data sounded at an ice station over Arctic Ocean from 22 August to 3 September,2003.It shows that the height of the convective boundary layer in day is greater than that of the stability boundary layer in night.The boundary layer can be described as vertical structures of stability,instability and multipling The interaction between relative warm and wet down draft air from up level and cool air of surface layer is significant,which causes stronger wind shear,temperature and humidity inversion with typical wind shear of 10 m/s/100 m,intensity of temperature inversion of 8 ℃/100 m.While the larger pack ice is broken by such process,new ice free area in the high latitudes of arctic ocean.The interactions between air/ice/water are enhanced.The fact helps to understanding characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer and its effect in Arctic floating ice region.     

Summer weather characteristics on the Grove Mountain of East Antarctica

The summer weather characteristics of the Grove Mountain, East Antarctica, are presented based on the data obtained by Chinese National Antarctic Expedition (CHINARE) in January 1999. The result shows that the pattern of daily variation of temperature and the prevailing wind direction in Grove is similar to that of Zhongshan Station. However, the daily range of temperature and strong wind frequency are much higher than those of Zhongshan Station. The change of wind direction is close to the weather system that impacted the Grove Mountain. The warm and wet air from northern parts often causes the precipitation. The clear weather appears when controlled by eastern winds in January.     

台风“莫拉克”降水观测与云物理特征的模拟研究

为了研究云中微物理量与台风降水的关系,选取0908号台风"莫拉克"作为个例,利用中国自主研发的全球区域同化预报系统对台风引起的暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。该模式系统中包含有详细的云微物理过程。结合TRMM卫星资料、MODIS云顶温度资料、FY-2卫星云图以及常规地面观测等资料与模式结果进行对比分析。分析结果表明,此次强降水主要发生在福建大部分地区以及浙江东南部地区,模拟6小时累积降水最大值超过90m,模式对此次暴雨的雨带位置及其走向都有较好的模拟。台风中云微物理量的垂直分布基本可以分为3层,由冰晶与雪组成的冰相层,一般位于100～400hPa;由云水和雨水组成的液相层,一般位于600hPa之下,以及由霰与云水、雨水形成的混合层,主要分布在400～600hPa。霰在暖区的融化以及云水、雨水的碰并是降水的主要来源。     

Southern meridional atmospheric circulation associated with IOD

Using the monthly wind and sea surface temperature （SST） data, southern meridional atmospheric circulation cells associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IOD） events in the Indian Ocean are for the first time described and examineS. The divergent wind and pressure vertical velocity are employed for the identification of atmospheric circulation cells. During the four different phases of the positive IOD events, the anomalous meridional Hadley circulation over the western Indian Ocean shows that the air rises in the tropics, flows poleward in the upper troposphere, sinks in the subtropics, and returns back to the tropics in the lower troposphere. The anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean is opposite to that over the western Indian Ocean. During positive IOD events, the meridional Hadley circulation over the eastern Indian Ocean is weakened while it is strengthened over the western Indian Ocean. Correlation analysis between the IOD index and the indices of the Hadley cells also proves that, the atmospheric circulation patterns are evident in every IOD event over the period of record.