中纬度地区的洪水与太阳活动关系的研究

本文试图说明太阳活动与地球天气气候相关联 ,并用韩国江汉大洪水及我国长江大洪水的事例建立中纬度 (2 0°～ 4 0°)地区的洪水与太阳活动的统计规律 :二者呈负相关 ,大洪水常发生在太阳活动相对宁静的年份。由此本文推断未来几年长江发生大洪水的可能性不大。     

太阳活动与变化的150天周期研究进展

太阳活动，除了涵盖太阳表面磁场驱动的活动现象外，还包括光度、自转和对称性等物理因素的长期演化。研究它们变化的周期对深入理解其产生机制有着重要的指导意义。从1984年Rieger等人首次发现耀斑的产生率存在约154d周期始，人们在很多现象中都找到了它的踪影，150余d的周期成了继11yr太阳活动周和27d太阳自转周后最引人注目的新周期。重点综述了在耀斑、黑子等活动领域内对150d周期现象研究的现状，介绍了有关它成因的研究进展，指出了尚待解决的问题及进一步努力的方向。     

日面高纬黑子与太阳活动

利用云南天文台太阳黑子观测资料,对太阳活动第１９ 周至第２２ 周日面高纬度（ 高于４０°） 的黑子群进行了统计．结果表明：高纬黑子面积绝大部分小于１００ ,平均５６ ,寿命大部分为１ ～３ 天,平均４ 天;黑子分类绝大部分为ＡＸＸ、ＨＳＸ、ＢＸＯ,其中ＡＸＸ 约占总数的一半．高纬黑子在日面南北半球上的不对称分布可用来预报该太阳周内的太阳活动在南北半球上的主次．由此预报２３ 周太阳活动将在南半球更活跃     

22周太阳活动峰年观测研究小结与23周太阳活动峰年选题设想

本文简要的回顾了２２ 周太阳活动峰年,太阳射电观测研究概况,并根据一些新型的太阳射电设备的建立,对２３ 周峰年观测研究的选题,提出某些初步设想     

Ⅱ型爆发与太阳活动

本文分析了１９８７年１月—１９９４年１２月ＳＧＤ发表的太阳射电米波Ⅱ型爆发与ＳＩＤ事件、Ｈα耀斑、Ｘ射线等的对应关系。结果表明：电离层突然扰动与米波Ⅱ型爆发的关系是密切的。有８６％的ＳＩＤ事件发生在Ⅱ型爆发之前，这可能是由于ＳＩＤ事件是由太阳的紫外线、Ｘ射线辐射引起，而慢漂移Ⅱ型爆发与耀斑产生的ＭＨＤ激波有关     

太阳活动起源研究(I):太阳活动周的经验和半经验模型

概括了从观测上发现的太阳活动主要特征，对Ｂａｂｃｏｃｋ的太阳活动周经验模型和Ｌｅｉｇｈｔｏｎ的半经验模型分别作了阐述，简要讨论了与Ｂａｂｃｏｃｋ和Ｌｅｉｇｈｔｏｎ模型有关的后续研究情况。     

云南省传染病与太阳活动关系的考察

从日地关系的角度出发,探讨太阳活动对人类流行性疾病的影响。根据云南地区自建国以来的１５种流行性疾病每年人数的资料,对每种疾病人数的相对比率与太阳黑子相对数对应作图比较,并求其相关系数。考察结果为：猩红热、疟疾、炭疽、百日咳、白喉、流感、乙脑、痢疾、麻疹、脊髓灰质炎、姜片虫病、肝炎与太阳活动的关系不明确,伤寒、斑疹伤寒和流脑与太阳活动显著相关     

The Variation of Solar Wind Correlation Lengths Over Three Solar Cycles

We present the results of a study of solar wind velocity and magnetic field correlation lengths over the last 35 years. The correlation length of the magnetic field magnitude λ _|B| increases on average by a factor of two at solar maxima compared to solar minima. The correlation lengths of the components of the magnetic field l_BXYZ\lambda_{B_{XYZ}} and of the velocity l_VYZ\lambda_{V_{YZ}} do not show this change and have similar values, indicating a continual turbulent correlation length of around 1.4×10⁶ km. We conclude that a linear relation between λ _|B|, VB ², and Kp suggests that the former is related to the total magnetic energy in the solar wind and an estimate of the average size of geoeffective structures, which is, in turn, proportional to VB ². By looking at the distribution of daily correlation lengths we show that the solar minimum values of λ _|B| correspond to the turbulent outer scale. A tail of larger λ _|B| values is present at solar maximum causing the increase in mean value.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

日冕物质抛射和太阳表面磁活动的关系

综述了近年来日冕物质抛射与耀斑、日珥、冕流和日冕暗化相关关系的研究进展，指出了这些相关关系上的一些不确定因素。同时，介绍了我们所做的部分工作，探讨了不同尺度磁活动之间的物理联系，并提出今后需要进一步解决的问题。     

Features of the Solar Active Cycles

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Long-term Evolution of Solar Activity and Prediction of the Following Solar Cycles

Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace activities, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long-term evolution trend of solar activity and accurately predicting the future solar cycles are highly anticipated.Based on the wavelet transform and empirical function fitting of the longest recorded data of the annual average relative sunspot number(ASN) series of 323 yr t...     

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10?–?24. We found that the autocorrelation width \(A_{\mathrm{w}} ^{n}\) of SC \(n\) during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as \(T_{\mathrm{cy}}^{n+2} - T_{\mathrm{a}}^{n}\). Here \(T_{\mathrm{cy}}^{n+2}\) and \(T_{ \mathrm{a}}^{n}\) are the length and ascent time of SCs \(n+2\) and \(n\), respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs (i.e., \(n+1\), \(n+2\)) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC \(n\). The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).     

On the Differences Between Odd and Even Solar Cycles

It is proposed that the observed differences between odd and even solar cycles are a consequence of the nonlinear interactions that provide the stabilizing mechanism for the cycle's amplitude. If, for example, the magnetic field is larger than average for a given cycle (say odd), the nonlinear feedback mechanism can generate a magnetic field that is smaller than average for the next cycle (even), and then one that is larger than average for the following cycle (odd), etc. As a consequence the odd cycles have larger amplitudes than even cycles. A very simply model having a nonlinear interaction that reproduces this behavior is discussed.     

The Shape of Sunspots and Solar Activity Cycles

Solar Physics - A new open-source software, called SunMap, has been developed to obtain synoptic maps in an easy and quick way from multiple full-disc solar images. Our objective is to provide a...