Recent Climate Warming: Surface Air Temperature Series and Geothermal Evidence

Long-term (1961 – 1996) meteorological air temperature series together with the reconstructed ground surface temperature histories, obtained by inverting borehole temperature-depth profiles, were used to project regional patterns of the recent (climate) warming rate on the territory of the Czech Republic. The characteristic magnitude of the warming rate of 0.02 –0.03 K/yr was confirmed by the results of several years of monitoring the temperature in two experimental boreholes. The monitoring of shallow temperatures at depths of about 30 –40 m, i.e. below the reach of the seasonal surface temperature variations, can serve as an alternative tool of direct quantitative assessment of the present warming rate. The data also seem to sustain a potential man-made component contributing to the more pronounced recent warming rate observed in the areas of large agglomeration.     

Ground surface temperature history in southern Canada: Temperatures at the base of the Laurentide ice sheet and during the Holocene

We use temperature profiles from 7 deep (≈ 2000 m) boreholes located in southern Canada to infer ground surface temperature histories (GSTH) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Visual inspection of the heat flow and of the reduced temperature depth profiles reveals significant regional differences with some sites showing conspicuous signs of post glacial warming, and other indicating only very small changes in ground surface temperature. These differences are confirmed by the inversions of the temperature profiles. The most prominent variations in GST are found at the Sudbury, Ontario, sites where the present ground surface temperature is high. With the exception of Sept-Iles, Quebec, the other sites only show moderate or no variation in GST. For all the sites, except possibly Sept-Iles, temperatures at the base of the ice sheet during the LGM were at or slightly below the melting point of ice. Temperatures might have been lower, a few degrees below 0 °C, at Sept-Iles. These results are consistent with field observations and model predictions suggesting high velocity basal flows in the ice sheet above the studied regions. These new data on basal temperatures will provide better quantitative constraints on glacier flow dynamics. The inversions give a chronology for the retreat of the ice sheet comparable to other proxies. Inversion and direct modeling show that, following the ice retreat, there was a warm period between 2 and 5 ka with temperatures 1–2 K higher than present. The inversion yields a time for this episode 1–2 kyr more recent than that inferred by other proxies for the Holocene climate optimum (HCO).     

Shallow groundwater temperature response to climate change and urbanization

Groundwater temperatures, especially in shallow (quaternary) aquifers respond to ground surface temperatures which in turn depend on climate and land use. Groundwater temperatures, therefore, are modified by climate change and urban development. In northern temperate climate regions seasonal temperature cycles penetrate the ground to depths on the order of 10–15 m. In this paper, we develop and apply analytic heat transfer relationships for 1-D unsteady effective diffusion of heat through an unsaturated zone into a flowing aquifer a short distance below the ground surface. We estimate how changes in land use (urban development) and climate change may affect shallow groundwater temperatures. We consider both long-term trends and seasonal cycles in surface temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that a fully urbanized downtown area at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul is likely to have a groundwater temperature that is nearly 3 °C warmer than an undeveloped agricultural area at the same geographic location. Pavements are the main cause of this change. Data collected by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) in the St. Cloud, MN area confirm that land use influences groundwater temperatures. Ground surface temperatures are also projected to rise in response to global warming. In the extreme case of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂ climate scenario), groundwater temperatures in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area could therefore rise by up to 4 °C. Compounding a land use change from “undeveloped” to “fully urbanized” and a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, groundwater temperatures are projected to rise by about 5 °C at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul.     

Effects of hydrogeological and climate change on the subsurface thermal regime in the Sendai Plain

We estimated the effects of hydrogeological and surface temperature warming on subsurface thermal regime from the temperature-depth profiles and hydrological data of groundwater quality both in the quaternary and tertiary systems in the Sendai Plain as a preliminary step toward reconstruction of climate changes.Annual mean air temperature in the plain has increased about 1.5 °C in the last 70 years and this surface warming resulted in low or negative thermal gradient. However, anomaly of thermal gradient was recognized in not all temperature-depth profiles. Groundwater chemical compositions and stable isotope data (δD and δ¹⁸O) show that the groundwater flow system has marked difference between those of tertiary and quaternary systems. Calculated results of three dimensional groundwater flow and heat transport model ensure the above hypothesis and shows that thermal gradient changes at close to basement of the quaternary system. The differences in groundwater flow systems are expressed as subsurface thermal gradient anomalies in the temperature-depth profiles in the Sendai Plain. Furthermore, one-dimensional numerical analyze including the effect of surface warming indicates that calculated profile has departure from steady state line at depths in 60-80 m agree well with observed one.     

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.     

CLIMATE HISTORY INFERRED FROM BOREHOLE TEMPERATURES, DATA FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The knowledge of the present-day underground temperatures may be important in the assessments of the past climate change. The method of inversion of the temperature-depth records into the ground surface temperature history is briefly introduced by showing an example of synthetic data and illustrated by a review of existing results obtained from the inversion of temperature logs measured in holes in the Czech Republic. Underground temperatures observed in holes of the depth of at least 1000–1500 m seem to confirm the preinstrumental climate pattern of the past several thousand years. Most of shallower temperature records (500–800 m) revealed general warming of climate followed the Little Ice Age of the 17–18th centuries and a pronounced increase of the soil temperatures by at least 1 K since the beginning of this century.     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

Relationship between soil moisture of near surface and multiple depths of the root zone under heterogeneous land uses and varying hydroclimatic conditions

This paper presents an assessment of the relationship between near-surface soil moisture (SM) and SM at other depths in the root zone under three different land uses: irrigated corn, rainfed corn and grass. This research addresses the question whether or not near-surface SM can be used reliably to predict plant available root zone SM and SM at other depths. For this study, a realistic soil-water energy balance process model is applied to three locations in Nebraska representing an east-to-west hydroclimatic gradient in the Great Plains. The applications were completed from 1982 through to 1999 at a daily time scale. The simulated SM climatologies are developed for the root zone as a whole and for the five layers of the soil profile to a depth of 1·2 m. Over all, the relationship between near-surface SM (0–2·5 cm) and plant available root zone SM is not strong. This applies to all land uses and for all locations. For example, r estimates range from 0·02 to 0·33 for this relationship. Results for near-surface SM and SM of several depths suggest improvement in r estimates. For example, these estimates range from − 0·19 to 0·69 for all land uses and locations. It was clear that r estimates are the highest (0·49–0·69) between near-surface and the second layer (2·5–30·5 cm) of the root zone. The strength of this type of relationship rapidly declines for deeper depths. Cross-correlation estimates also suggest that at various time-lags the strength of the relationship between near-surface SM and plant available SM is not strong. The strength of the relationship between SM modulation of the near surface and second layer over various time-lags slightly improves over no lags. The results suggest that use of near-surface SM for estimating SM at 2·5–30 cm is most promising. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of climatic variability on estimates of recharge from temperature profiles

Using heat as a tracer allows for estimation of ground water recharge rates based on subsurface temperature measurements. While possible in theory, it may be difficult in practice to discriminate the effects of climate from the effects of ground water advection. This study uses synthetic simulations to determine the influence of variability of ground surface temperature (GST) on the ability to estimate vertical specific discharge from temperature profiles. Results suggest that in cases where temperature measurements are sufficiently deep and specific discharge is sufficiently high, estimates of specific discharges will be reasonably accurate. Increasing the number of times temperatures are measured, or producing models that incorporate variations in GST, will increase the reliability of any studies using temperatures to estimate specific discharge. Furthermore, inversions of temperature measurements should be combined with other methods of estimating recharge rates to improve the reliability of recharge estimates.     

Climate Change in the Urals,Russia, Inferred from Borehole Temperature Data

Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.     

Pre-Observational Evolution of Surface Temperature in Romania as Inferred from Borehole Temperature Measurements

Temperature data from nine boreholes in the Carpathian orogen in Romania were used to obtain information on the ground surface temperature history (GSTH) in the last 250?years. The temperature measurements were taken with a thermistor probe (sensitivity in the 10 mK range) using the stop-and-go technique, at 10 m intervals, in the depth range of 20–580?m. The least squares inverse modelling approach of Tarantola and Valette (J Geophys 50:159–170, 1982) was used to infer the GSTH. Long-term air temperature records available from the Romanian weather station network were used as a comparison term for the first 100–150?years of the GSTH, and as a forcing function in a POM-SAT model that combines borehole temperature profiles (BTPs) and meteorological time series (surface air temperature, SAT) to produce information on the so-called pre-observational mean (POM). Results from a global circulation model for the Romanian area are incorporated in the discussion as well.     

Climatic and environmental changes at southeastern coast of Lake Biwa over past 3000 years, inferred from borehole temperature data

In order to infer past climatic change in central Japan, we measured temperatures in a borehole at the Karasuma site, on the southeastern coast of Lake Biwa, and reconstructed sediment surface temperature history during the last 3000 years. The reconstructed temperature history shows apparent Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and contemporary temperature warming. However, the large amplitude of the temperature changes up to 4-5 K cannot be explained by past climatic change only, suggesting that there was some other cause of the larger amplitude temperature changes. The onsets of temperature decrease in the late 12th century a.d. and temperature increase in the mid 17th century a.d. appear to coincide with occurrences of two destructive earthquakes (1185 and 1662 a.d.) that caused water level changes of Lake Biwa. It suggests that the reconstructed sediment surface temperature history reflects the environmental change due to tectonically induced water level changes of the lake. If the annual mean of the ground surface temperature was higher than that of the bottom water temperature in a shallow part of the lake, which is consistent with the present-day data, the large amplitude of the sediment surface temperature change may be attributed to a combined effect of past climatic and environmental changes. Thus, we suggest that the borehole temperature at the Karasuma site preserves information not only on past climate changes but also on environmental changes due to tectonically induced water level changes.     

Effects of atmospheric conditions on wind profiles and aeolian sand transport with an example from white sands national monument

Quantifying aeolian sand transport rates relies upon the computation of the near-surface shear velocity (u*) determined from velocity profiles of the wind. While it has been recognized that various conditions, such as saltation, surface roughness, surface slope and atmospheric conditions, have an effect on the velocity profile, it is commonly assumed that measurements made above the surface will be representative of the near-surface shear velocity. Airflow and temperature data collected over a flat substrate at White Sands National Monument in New Mexico, however, show the significant effects that atmospheric conditions have on velocity profiles. During the day, when solar insolation is heating the surface, atmospheric conditions in the lowest several metres become unstable, resulting in enhanced convection and vertical mixing so that the velocity gradient changes little with height. As a result, the shear stress in this region of vertical mixing lessens, while the near-surface shear stress is increased because the higher wind speeds are now nearer the surface. At night, the near-surface atmospheric conditions are stable, thereby reducing convection and vertical mixing, resulting in stratified airflow and increased shear velocity away from the surface. Unless this atmospheric effect is accounted for, estimates of sediment transport rates may be in error by as much as a factor of 15 times when wind speeds are near threshold velocity. At wind speeds approaching 10 ms¹, at 5m above the surface, this error in computing sediment transport is reduced to a factor of only two to three times, and may be within the range of measurement error.     

Contribution of surface roughness to simulations of historical deforestation

Surface roughness which partitions surface net radiation into energy fluxes is a key parameter for estimation of biosphere–atmosphere interactions and climate variability. An earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC), MPM-2, is used to derive the impact of surface roughness on climate from simulations of historical land cover change effects. The direct change in surface roughness leads to a global surface warming of 0.08 °C through altering the turbulence in the boundary layer. The regional temperature response to surface roughness associated deforestation is very strong at northern mid-latitudes with a most prominent warming of 0.72 °C around 50°N in the Eurasia continent during summer. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation in response to deforestation, although there are a few significant changes in precipitation. There is also a prominent warming of 0.25 °C around 40°N in the North American continent. This study indicates that land surface roughness plays a significant role which is comparable with the whole land conversion effect in climate change. Therefore, further investigation of roughness–climate relationship is needed to incorporate these aspects.     

A new analytical solution for assessing climate change impacts on subsurface temperature

Groundwater temperature is an important water quality parameter that affects species distributions in subsurface and surface environments. To investigate the response of subsurface temperature to atmospheric climate change, an analytical solution is derived for a one‐dimensional, transient conduction–advection equation and verified with numerical methods using the finite element code SUTRA. The solution can be directly applied to forward model the impact of future climate change on subsurface temperature profiles or inversely applied to produce a surface temperature history from measured borehole profiles. The initial conditions are represented using superimposed linear and exponential functions, and the boundary condition is expressed as an exponential function. This solution expands on a classic solution in which the initial and boundary conditions were restricted to linear functions. The exponential functions allow more flexibility in matching climate model projections (boundary conditions) and measured temperature–depth profiles (initial conditions). For example, measured borehole temperature data from the Sendai Plain and Tokyo, Japan, were used to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the exponential function for replicating temperature–depth profiles. Also, the improved accuracy of the exponential boundary condition was demonstrated using air temperature anomaly data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These air temperature anomalies were then used to forward model the effect of surficial thermal perturbations in subsurface environments with significant groundwater flow. The simulation results indicate that recharge can accelerate shallow subsurface warming, whereas upward groundwater discharge can enhance deeper subsurface warming. Additionally, the simulation results demonstrate that future groundwater temperatures obtained from the proposed analytical solution can deviate significantly from those produced with the classic solution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heat flow from the earth’s interior depending on inner parameters variations

The approximate equality of heat flows on the land and the ocean; high heat flow values on the middle oceanic ridges; a relationship of heat flow with age of tectogenesis; the extremely low heat flow values are considered as main evidence for any theoretical explanation. The deviation of surface heat flow from its equilibrium value is considered. Computing analysis of high temperature heat transfer coefficients is given. Some aspects of numerical techniques of the thermal history of the Earth are discussed. The influence of sudden and gradual formation of the Earth Crust on the surface heat flow is considered.     

Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China

Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960–1999, we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis, OMR). The results show that there is a stable and systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (⩾0.17 °C/decade), mainly comprised by sandy land, Gobi and bare rock gravel land, are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland, farmland and construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12°C/decade, 0.10°C/decade, 0.12°C/decade, respectively. Woodland areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06°C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover, the smaller the OMR warming trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type, areas in eastern China with intensive human activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus, projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not only take greenhouse gas increase into account, but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90202012, 40771206)     

Ground Surface Warming History in Northern Canada Inferred from Inversions of Temperature Logs and Comparison with Other Proxy Climate Reconstructions

— Well temperature logs from 61 sites located in discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions of northern Canada are analyzed. The method of functional space inversion (FSI) is applied to the set of precise temperature logs from wells located between 60 ° and 82 °N. There is strong evidence of extensive ground surface temperature (GST) warming beginning in the late 18^th century and lasting until the 20^th century. This was preceded by a lengthy period of cooling. The approximate average increase of the surface temperature of Canadian Arctic, based on all individual GST histories, is > 1.3 °C for the last 200 years. Simultaneous inversion of all well temperature data suggests an even higher warming (approximately 2 °C). There has been no strong south-to-north gradient in the ground warming magnitude when northern Canadian data are compared with eastern and central Canadian data south of 60 °N which also shows warming close to 2 °C. In Alaska, warming of some 2 °C has been restricted mainly to the 20^th century. In general, however, a high warming magnitude is common for most of Canada and Alaska for the previous century. The averaged GST history (GSTH) for the Canadian Arctic is calibrated with and compares visually with a variety of recently published regional and hemispheric proxy climate reconstructions. These show that GST warming derived from well temperature logs is generally higher than one shown by other proxy (mainly tree-ring reconstructions).Received April, 2003     

华北地区水位下降是否会减缓气温上升——浅部地温影响的数值模拟分析

华北地区由于长期持续的地下水过量开采,导致了大面积地下水位大幅下降,引发地面塌陷、地下水质污染等一系列地质环境问题,这些现象早已为人们所熟知和关注.然而地下水位下降还会造成百米量级浅部地温及其梯度的变化,因此即使来自地球深部的大地热流密度没有变化,年度平均的从表浅部位通过地表实际传导进入大气的热流密度会减小,这是中外文献中尚未见讨论过的问题.我们通过数值模拟发现假定大地热流密度不变的条件下,华北数万平方公里地下水位下降会造成百米尺度内的地温降低,从而传入大气的热流密度降低40%以上,且会持续数百年以上的时间.这种长时间大范围的传导入大气的热流密度变化对环境会造成什么影响是一个十分值得关注的问题.这一预测在一定程度上得到了气象站地温观测数据的支持,但由于目前气象观测站只有3.2m深度范围内的地温资料,累计不超过5、60年,中间还有10余年的间断,而且表浅深度地温受地表多种因素的影响也较大,这些资料难以对我们关心的地下水位下降引起流入大气的热流密度变化这一问题提供直接确凿的数据来进行分析,因此今后有必要开展对地下数十乃至数百米地温进行持续精确的监测工作.     

The soil hydrologic response to forest regrowth: a case study from southwestern Amazonia

As a large and dynamic land‐use category, tropical secondary forests may affect climate, soils, and hydrology in a manner different from primary forests or agricultural areas. We investigated the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_sat of a Kandiudult under different land uses in Rondonia, Brazil. We measured K_sat at four depths (12·5, 20, 30 and 50 cm) under (a) primary forest, (b) a former banana–cacao plantation (SF1), and (c) an abandoned pasture (SF2). At 12·5 cm, all three land uses differ significantly (α = 0·1), but not at the 20 and 30 cm depths. At 50 cm, K_sat was significantly greater in the former pasture than in other land uses. Lateral subsurface flow is expected during intense rainfall (about 30 times per year) at 30 cm depth in SF1 and at 50 cm depth in the forest, whereas the relatively low permeability at shallow 12·5 cm in the SF2 may result not only in lateral subsurface flow, but also saturation overland flow. For modelling purposes, recovering systems seem to have K_sat values distinct from primary forest at shallow depths, whereas at deeper layers (>20 cm) they may be considered similar to forests. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.