黄河源径流演变特征及其对降水的响应

采用1960-2012年黄河源径流、降水数据,以过程线法、集中度和集中期等方法分析黄河沿以上、黄河沿-吉迈、吉迈-玛曲、玛曲-唐乃亥等4个区段降水、径流的演变特征,并从降水的产流能力、时滞相关和集中期响应等角度分析径流对降水的响应。结果表明：黄河源径流汛期占比年际变化趋势自上游各区段呈不显著的增加-减少-增加-减少的特征。吉迈以上径流量年际变化呈不显著增加,吉迈以下呈减少趋势。各区段径流集中期均有不同程度的提前。下游径流集中期早于上游。黄河源汛期降水占比呈不显著下降趋势。4个区段自上游降水年际变化呈显著增加-显著增加-不显著减少-不显著增加的特征。降水的集中度分布较径流更为集中,且有不显著减少趋势。各区段降水的产流能力在20世纪80年代末至90年代中期出现弱化趋势,中上游在2005年左右降水的产流能力转为较分析时段初期有增强的趋势,而中下游一直较分析时段初期减小。不同区段年径流量与不同统计时段降水量的依存关系不同。黄河源玛曲以上径流相对于降水的集中期滞后天数呈不显著减少,玛曲-唐乃亥滞后天数略有增加。     

近55年来黄河河源区径流的变化及区域差异

基于黄河源区有关水文、气象台站的观测数据,对该区及黄河沿水文站以上、黄河沿水文站-吉迈水文站区间、吉迈水文站-玛曲水文站区间、玛曲水文站-唐乃亥水文站区间各区域1960—2014年期间径流变化的季节特征、趋势及其对气候变化响应的区域差异进行了分析。结果表明:近55 a来黄河源区径流及其各分区径流总体上呈减少的态势,但减少幅度各区有所不同;但在2000年代中期后径流量回升比较明显。在上述分析的基础上,基于周期外延叠加方法对黄河河源区径流未来30 a的可能变化进行了预测。预测显示,未来30 a内,黄河源区径流的变化为先增后减,但总体变化平稳,其均值与目前55 a实测系列均值没有显著差异。     

黄河下游河道输沙功能的时间变化及其原因

以输出某一河道的泥沙总量与进入这一河道的泥沙量之比来定义河道输沙功能,以此为指标研究了黄河下游输沙功能的时间变化。研究表明,近50年来黄河下游河道输沙功能表现出随时间而减小的明显趋势。在总的减小趋势中,由于水库运用方式与下游水沙组合的不同,河道输沙功能指标具有明显的差异,可以划分为6个阶段。1986¹997年,由于降水偏少,且人类大量引水,黄河下游进入连续枯水的水文系列,河道萎缩,输沙功能迅速降低,此时段中输沙功能指标的时段平均值为0.62,为有水沙记录以来最低的时期。对于黄河下游输沙功能指标与流域因子和河道特性因子的时间变化系列进行了比较,以揭示输沙功能减小的原因。结果表明,黄河下游河道输沙功能指标与流域平均年降水量、兰州站和三门峡站汛期径流占年径流百分比、游荡段典型断面平滩水位下断面面积、花园口站和高村站水面比降等因子有同步减小的关系,并随流域水土保持面积、人类引水量及其占天然径流量比率的增大而增大,说明这些因子的变化导致了黄河下游输沙功能的减弱。     

贡嘎山东坡海螺沟的河川径流特征

对贡嘎山高山水文观测试验系统进行了简要介绍，并对海螺沟冰川河以及黄崩溜沟的径流特征进行了初步探讨。由于大气降水同是冰川河及黄崩溜沟径流的重要补给来源，故其径流量的季节变化明显带有大气降水过程的烙印，显得丰、枯分明。在冰川河，冰雪融水和地下水在枯水季节的稳定补给改变了大气降水对冰川河径流的年内分配过程；在黄崩溜沟，由于冰雪融水和地下水对其径流的补给非常有限，大气降水过程对其径流过程的影响便明显大过冰川河。     

长江、淮河、黄河、海滦河四大水系丰枯水遭遇的初步分析

文章采用了1956——1979年经过还原后的四大水系的各代表站年径流的系列力基础,计算了各水系代表站的丰枯遭遇的各种机率。丰枯的标准采用了按保证率的5级和3级的分类法。文章对长远系列的遭遇机率进行了各种分析。还用调出区和受水区的概念,将长江、淮河作为输出的一方,将黄河及海滦河作为受水的一方也作了丰枯遭遇的计算和分析,目的是为南水北调的中东线调水提供一些依据。     

新疆渭干河黑孜水库年径流随机数学模型的建立

黑孜水库是新疆最大的山区拦河水库，具有灌溉、防洪、发电等综合效益。为了使水库调节遇到各种丰、平枯水的组成情况，以便最佳调节运用以发挥其最大效益。本文应用黑孜水库水文站已有３６年年径流序列将其中折趋势、跳跃、周期、随机和纯随机５种成份分析出来，建立各自的数学模型，然后综合成总全数学模型，用以延长年径流序列。延长后的序列经过各种统计检验，保持了原有序列的统计特性，所以是可以实用的。     

新疆阿克苏河流域年径流时序特征分析

阿克苏河是塔里木河的主要支流,依据阿克苏河流域内5个代表站的40余年年径流实测资料,选取多种径流统计参数,分析流域范围内不同径流补给来源的径流年内分配规律和多年变化特征。结果表明：阿克苏河流域径流补给具有垂直地带性和多样化特点,径流时序特征与径流的补给来源有密切关系;径流年内分配极不均匀,集中程度高;而径流的多年变化变差系数小,丰、枯频率密度近似正态分布,无特大丰水年和枯水年,径流量多年变化趋势比较稳定。     

1961—2010年讨赖河山区径流变化特征及其驱动因素

以1961—2010年讨赖河山区气温、降水和径流资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势、距平百分比、重标极差、Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波变换和多元线性回归等多种数理分析方法,研究了讨赖河山区径流的年内和年际变化规律,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：径流年内分配极不均匀且呈单峰型分布,汛期径流占年径流的比重为62.11%。径流经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4次波动,在1984年发生由多到少的显著性突变,但整体呈不显著减少趋势且具有持久性。径流在22年准周期上振荡最为明显,经历了“少-多-少-多-少-多-少”7次循环交替,2010—2015年径流可能再次偏多。近50年来山区气温呈“稳定波动-快速上升”变化,降水量呈显著增加趋势,但山区降水转化为径流的比例减少。气温升高和降水量增加引起的蒸散发增加,同时气候变化和人类活动共同作用下的地表覆盖类型的变化均对径流变化产生影响。     

新疆主要河流水文极值变化趋势

水文极值是工程水文计算的基础资料,实测样本资料的变化直接影响水文设计值。基于1956-2006年的实测洪峰、洪量、年最小流量、最枯月径流量等资料,分析了各水文要素的变化及其趋势。结果表明:20世纪80年代中期以来超标准洪峰、洪量的频次增加,大多数河流洪水峰、量都呈增大变化趋势,说明新疆洪水又进入活跃期,在工程水文设计洪水计算中要应尽可能搜集和利用近期暴雨和洪水资料,在洪水系列中增加更多大洪水信息,提高设计洪水计算成果的稳定性。年最小流量和最枯月径流量是维持河流生命和河道两岸自然生态的基础流量,基流量增大有利于对生态补给、水利发电,水库蓄水,径流年内分配趋于均匀有利于水量年内调节。但在枯水径流分析计算中应充分重视不同年份最枯水量出现时间有明显推迟的迹象。     

黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析

运用交叉小波对黑河上游野牛沟气象站1959-2010年和祁连气象站1957-2010年年降水(AP)与年均气温(AAT)、北极涛动指数(AOI)和莺落峡站(1944-2010年)的年均径流量(AAR)进行了多尺度分析。结果表明:AOI存在3~5 a尺度的显著周期,AAT存在3 a尺度的显著周期,AP存在3 a和4~6 a尺度的显著周期,AAR存在3 a、2.5~4 a和5 a比较显著的周期;黑河上游径流的增加主要是受"暖湿"气候影响;AAR与AOI、AAT呈现出3 a的负相关和3~4 a的近似负相关共振周期,AAR与AP存在2~7 a的显著性的共振周期,降水对径流的影响很大,为径流的主要补给来源;受AOI的影响,AAR在1987年发生3 a周期的"丰-枯"转换,受AAT的影响,AAR在1974年和1996年发生3 a周期的"丰-枯"转换,受AP的影响,AAR在1986年发生3 a周期的"丰-枯"转换。降水和气温是影响径流变化的主导因素。     

Recent water quality trends and a comparison to sediment-core records for two riverine lakes of the Upper Mississippi River basin: Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin

Long-term water quality monitoring data from two riverine lakes in the Upper Mississippi River basin, Lakes St. Croix and Pepin, were analyzed to compare the long-term average water quality conditions and land use distributions, water quality trends and loads at lake inlets and outlets, trends from long-term versus short-term monitoring records, and the ability of paleolimnological cores to accurately infer lake water quality conditions. During the 1976–2004 period, the long-term average concentrations of nutrients, suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a were consistently lower at the Lake St. Croix inlet versus the Lake Pepin inlet, which drains a greater proportion of urban and agricultural runoff. Despite these differences, nutrient trends were similar at the inlets to both lakes; reductions in total phosphorus and ammonium concentrations were attributed to improvements in point source technologies, whereas increasing nitrate concentrations were attributed to both point source changes and nonpoint source increases. Despite improvements in several water quality variables, nitrate concentrations are increasing in both lakes, sediment trends indicate persistent nonpoint source inputs to Lake Pepin, and current total phosphorus concentrations remain well above pre-1950s levels in both lakes. Since urban development and agriculture are increasing in the Lake St. Croix and Lake Pepin Watersheds, continued point source regulation and additional nonpoint source control efforts will be needed to further improve water quality in these lakes. The 1976–2004 trends for most water quality variables were similar at inlet versus outlet sites on Lake St. Croix. Trends at Lake Pepin inlet versus outlet sites were less similar, but data availability limited the comparison to the 1993–2003 period. While the truncated data record highlighted short-term trends in both lakes, the full data record was most useful for exploring general patterns in water quality. Length of monitoring record affected our ability to detect trends at the inlets to both lakes, and altered the magnitude of detected trends. During the two decades of the 1980s and 1990s, paleolimnological estimates of retained phosphorus loads were similar to those estimated from recent water quality monitoring. These similarities support the use of paleolimnological approaches to infer past water quality conditions in Lakes St. Croix and Pepin. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

南四湖底泥污染及其变化过程

In order to research the changing process of the pollution from the formation of Nansihu Lake, this study determined the isotope age and depositional rate and analyzed the organic geo-chemical quotas and heavy metal quotas of two sedimentary profiles of Weishan and Dushan lakes. Research results showed that from the formation of Nansihu Lake, the change of the pollution could be divided into four phrases. At the early phrase of the formation, the organic matters of the lake mainly derived from the exotic matters and had a close relation to the effect on the water and sands from the Huanghe (Yellow) River. At the middle and late phrases of the development, the endogenous matters of the lake became the main and stable source of the organic matters. The overflow of the Huanghe River, the excavation of the Grand Canal and the cut of trees caused the changes of the historic pollution. In recent 20 years, the modem industrial pollution from the organic matters and heavy metals has an increasingly heavy tendency.     

Pollution of bed sediments and its changing process of Nansihu Lake

In order to research the changing process of the pollution from the formation of Nansihu Lake, this study determined the isotope age and depositional rate and analyzed the organic geo-chemical quotas and heavy metal quotas of two sedimentary profiles of Weishan and Dushan lakes. Research results showed that from the formation of Nansihu Lake, the change of the pollution could be divided into four phrases. At the early phrase of the formation, the organic matters of the lake mainly derived from the exotic matters and had a close relation to the effect on the water and sands from the Huanghe (Yellow) River. At the middle and late phrases of the development, the endogenous matters of the lake became the main and stable source of the organic matters. The overflow of the Huanghe River, the excavation of the Grand Canal and the cut of trees caused the changes of the historic pollution. In recent 20 years, the modern industrial pollution from the organic matters and heavy metals has an increasingly heavy tendency.     

The effect of the Changjiang River on water regimes of its tributary Lake East Dongting

The blocking or reversing effect of the downstream trunk river on its tributary lakes is an essential aspect of river-lake hydraulics. To measure how and the extent to which a trunk river can influence its tributary lakes, we made a case study in Changjiang River and one of its tributary lakes, Lake East Dongting (Lake ED) during a 35-year study period (1980–2014). Specifically, we investigated Lake ED’s discharge ability into Changjiang River using stage-discharge relationship curves, and hence the changes of the lake discharge ability under different hydrologic conditions of the Changjiang River. The results show that (1) the Changjiang River does exert a huge impact on the water regimes of Lake ED. And this impact varies seasonally. A variation of 3000 m³/s in Changjiang River’s runoff would change the lake water level by about 1.1 m in dry seasons, by 0.4 m in wet seasons, and by 0.6 m during severe summer floods. (2) Changes in the Changjiang River runoff triggered by the Three Gorges Dam since 2003 have led to dramatic water regime variations in Lake ED. Other factors, including reduction of lake inflow and the lake bed erosion, also exacerbated the water regime variations in Lake ED.     

特枯水情对长江中下游悬浮泥沙的影响

基于长江中下游气象资料、历史水沙资料和2006 年10 月现场水沙观测资料, 分析了 典型枯水年大通站的月均径流量和输沙率特征、2006 年特枯水情产生的气候背景以及对长江中下游含沙量和悬沙粒径产生的影响。分析表明, 枯水年长江干流输沙量有显著的减少, 2006 年特枯水情下大通站汛期输沙量仅占多年平均值(1985-2000 年) 的19.8%。在特枯水情 和三峡工程蓄水的背景下, 2006 年10 月长江中下游含沙量平均为0.057 kg/m³, 只占 2003-2005 年10 月平均值的20.6%。2006 年10 月长江中下游悬沙中值粒径平均为4.8 µm, 悬沙中值粒径只占多年平均值的26.3%, 占近期平均值的41.8%。含沙量、悬沙粒度和中游 河床冲淤特性的综合分析表明, 城陵矶-湖口河段水沙垂向交换强, 是三峡兴建以后近期河 道调整频繁的河段。洞庭湖和鄱阳湖对长江干流含沙量的贡献较大, 尤以鄱阳湖的贡献最大, 长江中下游其他支流对长江干流含沙量的贡献较小。汉江和巢湖对长江中下游悬沙粒径的影响相对较大, 而洞庭湖和鄱阳湖则对悬沙粒径的影响相对较小。     

Early Holocene drought in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin caused hydrologic closure of Georgian Bay

Multiple proxies record aridity in the northern Great Lakes basin ~8,800–8,000 cal (8,000–7,200) BP when water levels fell below outlets in the Michigan, Huron and Georgian Bay basins. Pollen-climate transfer function calculations on radiocarbon-dated pollen profiles from small lakes from Minnesota to eastern Ontario show that a drier climate was sufficient to lower the Great Lakes, in particular Georgian Bay, to closed basins. The best modern climate analog for the early Holocene late Lake Hough stage in the Georgian Bay basin is Black Bass Lake near Brainerd MN. Modern annual precipitation at Brainerd is ~35% lower than at Huntsville ON, in the Georgian Bay catchment; warmer summers and colder, less snowy winters make Brainerd drier than the Georgian Bay snow belt. These values parallel transfer function reconstructions for the early Holocene from pollen records at five small lakes in the Georgian Bay drainage basin. Higher evaporation and evapotranspiration due to greater seasonality during the early Holocene produced a deficit in effective moisture in Georgian Bay that is recorded by the jack/red pine pollen zone that spanned ~8,800–8,200 cal (8,000–7,500) BP. This deficit drove late Lake Hough ~5 m below Lake Stanley in the Huron basin, following diversion of Laurentide Ice sheet meltwater from the Great Lakes basin. The level of Georgian Bay largely depends not on fluvial input from its own drainage basin, but rather from Lake Superior, where the early Holocene moisture deficit was greater. Reconstruction of paleoclimates in Minnesota, northwestern Ontario and Wisconsin produced a closed lake in the Superior basin, which removed the main water input to Georgian Bay. Once the inflow through the St. Marys River was reduced and inflow from other tributary streams was adjusted for isostatic and climatic differences, input was <5% of modern values. Consequent high evaporation rates produced a significant fall in lake level in the Georgian Bay basin and a negative water budget. This reduction in basin supply, together with the high conductivity of stagnant water in late Lake Hough inferred from microfossils in lowstand sediments, peaked at the end of the jack/red pine zone, ~8,300–8,200 (7,450 ± 90) BP. These major hydrologic changes resulting from climate change in the recent geologic past draw attention to possible declines of the Great Lakes under future climates.     

Formation and early history of Lakes Pepin and St. Croix of the upper Mississippi River

Study of Lake Pepin and Lake St. Croix began more than a century ago, but new information has permitted a closer look at the geologic history of these two riverine lakes located on the upper Mississippi River system. Drainages from large proglacial lakes Agassiz and Duluth at the end of the last glaciation helped shape the current valleys. As high-discharge outlet waters receded, tributary streams deposited fans of sediment in the incised river valleys. These tributary fans dammed the main river, forming riverine lakes. Lake Pepin was previously thought to be a single long continuous lake, extending for 80 km from its dam at the Chippewa River fan all the way up to St. Paul, with an arm extending up the St. Croix valley. Recent borings taken at bridge and dam locations show more than a single section of lake sediments, indicating a more complex history. The Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers did not always follow their current paths. Valleys cut into bedrock but now buried by glacial sediment indicate former river courses, with the most recent of these from the last interglacial period marked at the surface by chains of lakes. The morphology of the Mississippi valley bottom, and thus the morphology of Lake Pepin as it filled the valley, is reflect in part by the existence of these old valleys but also by the presence of glacial outwash terraces and the alluvial fans of tributary streams. A sediment core taken in Lake Pepin near Lake City had a piece of wood in gravels just below lake sediments that dated to 10.3 ka cal. BP, indicating that the lake formed as the Chippewa River fan grew shortly after the floodwaters of Lakes Agassiz and Duluth receded. Data from new borings indicate small lakes were dammed behind several tributary fans in the Mississippi River valley between the modern Lake Pepin and St. Paul. One tributary lake, here called Early Lake Vermillion, may have hydraulically dammed the St. Croix River, creating an incipient Lake St. Croix. The tributary fans from the Vermillion River, the Cannon River, and the Chippewa River all served to segment the main river valley into a series of riverine lakes. Later the growth of the Chippewa fan surpassed that of the Vermillion and Cannon fans to create a single large lake, here called late Lake Pepin, which extended upstream to St. Paul. Sediment cores taken from Lake Pepin did not have significant organic matter to develop a chronology from radiocarbon dating. Rather, magnetic features were matched with those from a Lake St. Croix core, which did have a known radiocarbon chronology. The Pepin delta migration rate was then estimated by projecting the elevations of the top of the buried lake sediments to the dated Lake Pepin core, using an estimated slope of 10 cm/km, the current slope of Lake Pepin sediment surface. By these approximations, the Lake Pepin delta prograded past Hastings 6.0 ka cal BP and Red Wing 1.4 ka cal BP. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

抚仙湖-星云湖出流改道工程环境影响分析

抚仙湖、星云湖综合治理出流改道工程旨在“保护抚仙湖、改善星云湖、不影响东风水库水质”，不仅涉及到玉溪市饮用水源的保护和城市水源的长远发展规划，还涉及到东风水库、曲江和海口河至南盘江及其沿岸城市引水工程的防洪度汛，及两湖一库（抚仙湖、星云湖、东风水库）流域的生物多样性保护和自然生态环境保护。因此，工程实施前对工程的主要生态环境影响进行全面的分析非常必要。对工程所涉及到的抚仙湖、星云湖和东风水库的水质、生态效应、生物交流以及流域内的相关用水工程的影响作较为全面的分析，旨在为工程的进一步实施提供决策参考。     

长江黄河源区高寒植被变化的NDVI记录

使用8 km分辨率Pathdfinder NOAA-AVHRR/NDVI时间序列数据, 对青藏高原长江、黄河源区1982~2001年地表植被覆盖的空间分布和时间序列变化进行了分析, 并在典型区NDVI与气温、降水量和浅层地温单相关关系分析的基础上, 在不考虑地温作用和考虑地温作用两种条件下, 构建了NDVI与气温、降水量和浅层地温的统计模型。结果表明：近20年来江河源区的植被覆盖总体上保持原状,　局部继续退化。黄河源区的扎陵湖、鄂陵湖周边及其北东部地区、巴颜喀拉山北麓的多曲源头地区、长江源区的曲麻莱和治多一带、托托河沿至伍道梁之间的青藏公路两侧一定范围、格拉丹冬局部地区年NDVI减少显著,　幅度在0%~20%之间,　植被退化严重。江河源区年NDVI的变化, 即植被覆盖状况的好坏主要受温度, 尤其是40 cm附近地温的影响, NDVI对40 cm的地温变化极为敏感。在江河源多年冻土区, 冻土冻融过程不仅与地温变化息息相关, 而且影响土壤含水量的多少, 冻土的退化将会直接影响该区植被的生长。     

1974—2009年西藏羊卓雍错湖泊水位变化分析

羊卓雍错(简称羊湖)是青藏高原南部最大的一个封闭型内陆湖泊,位于西藏自治区浪卡子县境内,与纳木错、玛旁雍错一起并列为西藏三大圣湖,是藏南地区重要的风景旅游区。始建于1989年的羊湖发电站于1997年正式投入运营,为世界上海拔最高的抽水蓄能电站。在全球气候变暖和人类活动的影响下,其湖面水位变化及其成因备受国内外关注。利用1974—2009年羊湖白地水文观测资料,分析了36年来羊湖水位年际、年内变化特征及其与自然要素(气温、降水和蒸发等)和人类活动之间的关系。结果表明,羊湖平均水位为19.06 m,历史最高值出现在1980年,为21.37 m,2009年水位降至17.08 m的历史最低值。自1974年有水位观测资料以来,羊湖水位呈波动式下降趋势,其中,1974—1977年水位表现为逐年下降,幅度为0.26 m/a;之后至1980年以0.4 m/a呈上升态势,1980年羊湖水位达到了历史最高值;此后,至1996年水位呈显著下降趋势,减少速率为2.08 m/(10 a),1996年是羊湖水位上升的一个转折点,至2004年水位在逐年上升;2004—2009年是一个水位显著下降的时段,速率为0.57 m/a,也是水位下降趋势最为显著的时段。羊湖水位下降年份占整个时段的56%,而44%的年份水位在上升。1974—1984年及2001—2005年水位高于多年平均值,而1985—2000年及2006年之后水位都低于多年平均值。羊湖水位的年内最低值一般出现在6月,最高值则在10月。羊湖年内水位变化对流域降水量的响应具有一定的滞后性,时间为2个月左右。羊湖水位变化主要是由降水波动、气温上升、蒸发的变化等自然因素共同作用的结果,特别是,流域年际降水量波动是湖面水位升降的主要影响因子,人为和工程的影响范围和程度均较小。自羊湖电站1997年运行以来,流域的环境在暖湿的气候大背景下有所改善,且对羊湖水位变化无明显影响。但如果电站不能蓄水与发电并举,达不到总体不消耗羊湖水量的设计目标和水量平衡,对羊湖水位的影响将不可忽视。