Susceptibility regional zonation of earthquake-induced landslides in Campania,Southern Italy

In this paper, we present a GIS-based method for regional zoning of seismic-induced landslide susceptibility and show its application to the territory of the Campania region, Southern Italy. The method employs only three factors that we believe are most significant in the susceptibility assessment: the type of outcropping rock/soil, the slope angle, and the MCS intensity. Each of the three parameters is quantified in terms of relative weight expressed as indices, and the resulting Seismic Landslide Susceptibility index of an area is given by the average of the indices of the first two factors multiplied by the index of the third factor. The result of this susceptibility zonation applied to Campania shows a good agreement between the distribution of the historical earthquake-triggered landslides and the highly susceptible zones.     

基于GIS与层次分析法的龙溪流域滑坡风险评价

以浙江龙溪流域为例,基于GIS与层次分析法进行滑坡危险性和风险性评价.根据滑坡调查数据,选择坡度、坡向、地层岩性、地质构造、人类工程活动、降雨及灾害点分布密度7个评价因子,计算各评价单元滑坡危险性评价指数.通过分析滑坡危险性评价结果、人口及财产易损性等,对龙溪流域进行滑坡风险性评价.结果表明:龙溪流域极高危险区主要位于大峃镇樟坑、乌岩一带;易损人口、财产密度与地貌具有相关性,地形平坦的区域,人口和物质财富集中,易损人口和财产密度相对较高;滑坡极高风险区和高风险区主要分布在珊门村、店基坑、白门台及洞背村一带.滑坡风险评价结果与易损人口、财产密度分布差异较大,局部与危险性评价相似,通过结合自然属性和人文属性的滑坡风险评价更契合地方防灾减灾的管理需求.实地调研表明,本次滑坡风险评价结果基本符合龙溪流域滑坡造成的危害实际情况,可为龙溪流域城镇建设和人口分布再调整提供参考.     

基于确定性系数方法的龙门山地区地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析——以汶川地震与芦山地震诱发滑坡为例

在我国西南地区,沿龙门山断裂带分别发生了2008年汶川M_S8.0级地震以及2013年芦山M_S7.0级地震,这两次地震均造成了严重的地表破裂,并诱发了大量的滑坡和崩塌等次生地质灾害。文章选择了位于青藏高原向四川盆地过渡的区域——以龙门山断裂带为中心的30°~34°N,102°~106°E区域作为研究区,借助GIS工具,基于确定性系数（CF）方法,选取了地震、地质构造、自然环境和人类活动4大类因子,包括烈度、震中距、岩性、断裂、高程、坡度、坡向、河流、降雨、公路共10个因子（子集）,对汶川和芦山地震诱发的次生滑坡灾害进行影响因子敏感性分析,基于z值确定该区域内地震滑坡的关键因子类以及基于CF值确定各类集（子集）下各特定因子的具体地震滑坡敏感性。研究结果显示：地震因子具有最高的z值,是龙门山地区地震滑坡产生的关键影响因子,表明地震活动的强弱直接关系到斜坡的稳定性和次生滑坡灾害的面积分布。而对比烈度子集中的具体CF值表明：当烈度小于Ⅷ度时,烈度对次生滑坡发生的影响极低,区域内的主要影响因子则由地震因子转变为震中距、自然因子等其他类别的因子;其次以坡度、高程、与河流的距离为主的自然因子类别以及与断层的距离在地震滑坡过程中也有较高权重,而人类活动对研究区内坡体的稳定性也有着不可忽略的作用。本研究结果可作为该地区后续区域地震滑坡相关研究和发展规划的基础科学依据。

     

Landslide hazard and risk mapping at catchment scale in the Arno River basin

We present the methodologies adopted and the outcomes obtained in the analysis of landslide risk in the basin of the Arno River (Central Italy) in the framework of a project sponsored by the Basin Authority of the Arno River, started in the year 2002 and completed at the beginning of 2005. In particular, a complete set of methods and applications for the assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk are described and discussed. A new landslide inventory of the whole area was realized, using conventional (aerial-photo interpretation and field surveys) and non-conventional methods (e.g. remote sensing techniques such as DInSAR and PS-InSAR). The great majority of the mapped mass movements are rotational slides (75%), solifluctions and other shallow slow movements (17%) and flows (5%), while soil slips, and other rapid landslides, seem less frequent everywhere within the basin. The relationships between landslide characteristics and environmental factors have been assessed through statistical analysis. As expected, the results show a strong control of land cover, lithology and morphology on landslide occurrence. The landslide frequency-size distribution shows a typical scaling behaviour already underlined in other landslide inventories worldwide. The assessment of landslide hazard in terms of probability of occurrence in a given time, based for mapped landslides on direct and indirect observations of the state of activity and recurrence time, has been extended to landslide-free areas through the application of statistical methods implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN). Unique conditions units (UCU) were defined by the map overlay of landslide preparatory factors (lithology, land cover, slope gradient, slope curvature and upslope contributing area) and afterwards used to construct a series of model vectors for the training and test of the ANN. Various different ANNs were selected throughout the basin, until each UCU was assigned a degree of membership to a susceptibility and a hazard class. Model validation confirms that prediction results are very good, with an average percentage of correctly recognized mass movements of about 85%. The analysis also revealed the existence of a large number of unmapped mass movements, thus contributing to the completeness of the final inventory. Temporal hazard was estimated via the translation of state of activity in recurrence time and hence probability of occurrence. The following intersection of hazard values with vulnerability and exposure figures, obtained by reclassification of digital vector mapping at 1:10,000 scale, lead to the definition of risk values for each terrain unit for different periods of time into the future. The final results of the research are now undergoing a process of integration and implementation within land planning and risk prevention policies and practices at local and national level.     

Assessment model for earthquake-triggered landslides based on quantification theory I: case study of Jushui River basin in Sichuan, China

Earthquakes that occur in a mountainous region can trigger a mass of landslides (ETL), and these hazards can cause relatively heavy casualties. Compared with other evaluation models and methods, quantification theory I is a multivariate statistical approach that can simultaneously process qualitative and quantitative variables. On the basis of the ETL features and the influencing factors, in this paper, we select lithology, slope gradient, slope height, slope structure, distance to seismogenic fault, hanging wall/footwall of the seismogenic fault, and rock integrity, a total of seven impact factors, as the assessment index. By randomly selecting 128 single slopes in an intense seismic area as the samples, we develop an assessment model and apply it to investigate the regional stability of the Jushui River basin to prove its applicability. Moreover, this method calculates the factor weight; this can also prove the method through a comparison with the existing research results obtained using other methods.     

基于多期DEM和滑坡强度的滑坡风险评估

滑坡危险性定量评估是滑坡风险评估中的关键和难点,也是当前国际风险管理研究中的热点问题.以滑坡密集分布的黑方台南塬为研究区,以32处典型滑坡为研究对象,依据多期三维数字高程模型(DEM),提出了一种基于强度的滑坡危险性定量评估技术方法.根据多期三维地形信息的解译及野外调查,编制多期滑坡分布图,计算滑坡活动的频率.利用GIS技术,利用滑坡体积与速度的乘积计算滑坡强度.将滑坡危险性定义为滑坡频率和滑坡强度的乘积,同时调查和分析了黑方台地区各类承灾体的类型、价值及其在相应滑坡强度下的易损性,在此基础上开展了单体滑坡风险评估和黑方台南塬滑坡风险区划.     

基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的滑坡危险性评价

危险性评价与预测是滑坡灾害预防与减灾工作首要解决的重要内容。以西藏隆子县研究区内发育的滑坡为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取滑坡发育高程、坡度等13项影响因素作为滑坡危险性评价的指标,并建立分级标准将滑坡危险性划分为高度、中度和低度三级。采用组合赋权-未确知测度理论耦合评价模型,构建了评价指标未确知测度函数、评价指标组合赋权值、置信度判别准则,对研究区内20个滑坡进行了危险性评价,获得了每个滑坡危险性等级,并与模糊物元和突变理论评价结果及实测结果对比,评价结果基本符合实际情况,证明该方法科学合理,可为滑坡危险性预测提供新思路。     

Classification of rivers based on water quality assessment using factor analysis in Taizi River basin, northeast China

A method for river classification based on water quality assessment (WQA) was introduced using factor analysis (FA) in this paper. Sixty-nine sampling sites and 20 water quality parameters in Taizi River basin were selected for monitoring and analysis. Five factors were determined in FA, denoted as general, hardness, trophic, nitrogen pollution, and physical factors. The total factor scores (TFSs) of the WQA results from all sampling sites were calculated by the eigenvalue and factor score of each factor. The TFSs of 69 sites were interpolated with the measure of inverse distance weighted in the river buffer zone generated by ArcGIS 9.2 software to form a continuous spatial distribution along river channels. All streams were divided into five classes marked “excellent”, “good”, “fair”, “poor”, and “seriously polluted”. The classification result showed that the water quality of Taizi River basin deteriorated gradually from the mountain area to the plain area. Sewage and intensive human activities contributed to the deterioration of water quality since towns and farmland were dotted densely along the river basin.     

基于人工神经网络模型的福建南平市滑坡危险性评价

滑坡灾害持续影响着人民生命财产安全和地区社会经济可持续发展,滑坡危险性评价能够为防灾减灾和区域规划提供有效的理论依据。以福建省南平市为研究区,区内1711个历史滑坡灾害点,选择高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、地质岩性、土壤类型、降雨、水系、土地利用类型、公路和铁路共11个影响因子构成基本评价体系。使用Spearman相关系数对各因子进行共线性分析。基于1711个滑坡样本和1711个随机选取的非滑坡样本数据,利用人工神经网络模型对研究区进行了滑坡危险性评价,并利用混淆矩阵和接收者操作特征曲线（ROC）对模型进行验证。结果表明:混淆矩阵精度84.91%,ROC曲线下面积AUC值0.93,说明模型具有较高精度和预测率。使用自然间断法将滑坡危险性分为5个等级,结果表明研究区内危险性最高地区位于延平区和浦城县,顺昌县和松溪县次之,其余地区多为低危险区和较低危险区。研究结果可为当地区域规划和防灾减灾工程提供一定的理论依据和科学指导。     

美姑河流域滑坡时空展布及成生机制研究

位于青藏高原隆升区的美姑河流域断裂褶皱发育,地貌类型特殊,滑坡分布广、规模大、危害重、成因机理复杂。为揭示向斜谷和背斜山这种特殊地貌控制下滑坡的时空规律和成生机制,文章在调查勘查和综合分析的基础上,系统研究了美姑河流域滑坡的时空展布特征,滑坡发育位置与活动断裂、褶皱、节理等响应关系以及滑坡的易发工程地质岩组,厘定了滑坡的主控因素,主要取得了以下认识：1）流域内滑坡在空间上"沿河流"、"沿断裂带"和"向斜核部"密集分布,时间上主要有5个发育期次：中更新世中晚期、晚更新世、200 a B.P.、19世纪80~90年代和现代;2）中晚更新世以来的断裂活动、褶皱作用、岩层节理面以及软弱夹层对滑坡发育具有独特的控制模式,断裂与褶皱是区内滑坡发生的主控因素;3）中生代的徐家河组（T3xj）、沙溪庙组（J2s）和东川组（T1-2d）等砂泥岩互层岩组为滑坡最易发部位（易滑岩组）,也是未来防范滑坡灾害的重点区。成果为高原及周边类似地区的滑坡研究和防灾减灾提供了新的技术理论支撑。     

Post-earthquake changes and prediction of debris flow scales in Subao River Valley,Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China

Subao River lies along the Beichuan–Yingxiu fault in Beichuan County, which has been heavily impacted by the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 and has become sources of many geo-hazards. On 24 September 2008, a rainstorm triggered a large debris flow in the catchment, causing several deaths and significant damages. A case study on changes of the debris flow was conducted in the river. The peak discharges were calculated in the Guanmenzi, Huangnidi, and Daanshan gullies. Results indicated that the peak discharges corresponded to various return periods in different gullies: 200 years in Daanshan, 100 years in Huangnidi, and 50 years in Guanmenzi. However, the triggering precipitation in these three gullies was only of a 20-year return period. The debris flows had undergone significant changes. Analysis indicated that the changes should be ascribed to the flow characteristics, initiation conditions, and the channel blockage impacted by the rapid accumulation of loose material. Channel blockage was the principal factor increasing the scale of the debris flow. The values on the blocking coefficient were presented based on density, height, and other characteristics of dams. Finally, all of the peak debris flow discharges of the Subao River Valley for a 20-year return period were calculated using the recommended blocking coefficient values.     

一种大比例尺的滑坡风险区划方法——以延安市区黄土滑坡风险评价为例

介于区域性和单体滑坡之间,即对面积几十到上百平方千米的滑坡评价,适用于1∶5000~1∶25000之间的大比例尺,而如何对这类区域进行有效的滑坡风险评价是一个值得研究的问题。使用传统的基于GIS的单元栅格运算方法对这类区域进行滑坡风险评价,由于反映评价指标的基础数据精度与评价方法之间的不匹配,无论单元网格划分得如何精细,评价结果仍难达到精度要求。采用一种新的思路和方法,先期通过高精度数字高程模型(DEM)和Quick Bird遥感数据等多信息源,识别潜在的滑坡易发坡体,并初步圈画滑坡的危险区界线和进行承灾体信息解译,再逐一通过野外核查对以上信息加以验证、修正或取消,最后形成符合比例尺精度要求的风险评价图。实践证明,这是一种行之有效的进行大比例尺风险区划和评价的方法。     

Precipitation variability assessment of northeast China: Songhua River basin

Variability in precipitation is critical for the management of water resources. In this study, the research entropy base concept was applied to investigate spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation during 1964–2013 in the Songhua River basin of Heilongjiang Province in China. Sample entropy was applied on precipitation data on a monthly, seasonally, annually, decade scale and the number of rainy days for each selected station. Intensity entropy and apportionment entropy were used to calculate the variability over individual year and decade, respectively. Subsequently, Spearman’s Rho and Mann–Kendall tests were applied to observe for trends in the precipitation time series. The statistics of sample disorder index showed that the precipitation during February (mean 1.09, max. 1.26 and min. 0.80), April (mean 1.12, max. 1.29 and min. 0.99) and July (mean 1.10, max. 1.20 and min. 0.98) contributed significantly higher than those of other months. Overall, the contribution of the winter season was considerably high with a standard deviation of 0.10. The precipitation variability on decade basis was observed to increase from decade 1964–1973 and 1994–2003 with a mean value of decadal apportionment disorder index 0.023 and 0.053, respectively. In addition, the Mann–Kendall test value (1.90) showed a significant positive trend only at the Shangzhi station.     

怒江支流迪麻洛河流域泥石流易发性评价

以往对于怒江流域泥石流的研究大多关注支流泥石流对干流的影响,而对支流内群发性泥石流易发性的研究较少。迪麻洛河为怒江左岸一级支流,因其凸型斜坡地貌、变质软岩分布、断裂剪切破坏及新构造运动间歇性抬升产生的丰富物源等特征在怒江上游具有代表性。野外调查揭示,流域内泥石流主要分为沟谷型、坡面型和沟谷-坡面复合型3种,且多发育于迪麻洛河左岸。基于水文响应单元,从地质、地貌、降雨量、物源条件、人类工程活动等方面选取8项评价因子。针对各因子对不同类型泥石流影响程度的不同,采用层次分析法赋予各因子不同的权重。最后结合信息量法,分类剖析不同类型泥石流的易发性。结果表明：各类泥石流易发性高和极高的地区主要地层为石炭系第四段(Cd)、第五段(Ce)等岩性软弱地层; 主要沿着道路建设等人类工程活动强烈的地区分布; 越靠近断裂带易发性越高。随着易发性等级的提高,泥石流发育比例和相对发育比例也相应增高; 各类型泥石流AUC达83.34%、90.07%和84.39%,评价结果合理,可为怒江支流泥石流防治规划与预测预报提供科学依据,为西南深切峡谷变质软岩区群发性泥石流防灾减灾提供理论和技术参考。     

基于快速聚类-信息量模型的汶川及周边两县滑坡易发性评价

滑坡灾害易发性评价研究对规划灾害区域、制定防灾策略等方面具有十分重要的意义。以滑坡灾害频发的汶川及周边两县（理县和茂县）为例,提出滑坡灾害易发性评价的快速聚类-信息量模型。选取坡度、高程、坡向、距构造的距离、距水系的距离、地层岩性和土地利用情况为对滑坡有重要影响的7个影响因子,并在二级因子的分类上,对上述前5个影响因子依据159处滑坡样本分别开展快速聚类分析,同时也给出了传统的等距分类法,以便与快速聚类方法形成对比,对后2个影响因子则以定性方法分类。根据上述二级分类方法的不同,以及滑坡样本是否考虑面积因素,将信息量模型细分为四类（模型a:快速聚类-数量模型、模型b:等距分类-数量模型、模型c:快速聚类-面积模型、模型d:等距分类-面积模型）,分别计算各二级指标信息量,并通过ArcGIS空间叠加分析得到研究区域信息量分布,然后通过自然断点法将研究区滑坡易发性划分为五个等级。以易发性递增原则和线下面积（Area Under Curve,AUC）作为精度评价指标,结果表明:①快速聚类模型（模型a和模型c）整体效果优于等距分类模型（模型b和模型d）;②相同分类方法下,面积模型（模型c与模型d）整体优于数量模型（模型a和模型b）;③在上述两项优势的加持下,模型c相较于模型b,评价精度明显提升,其AUC值从80.46%提高到87.25%。     

Groundwater resources assessment of the Koyna River basin,India

The Western Ghats (hills) region of the Indian peninsula in western India receives heavy precipitation (4,000–6,000 mm/year), but the headwater basins that coalesce runoff from these hills retain very small quantities of water due to the steep topography. However, the narrow valleys in these hills support agriculture based on surface water irrigation, and several medium to large irrigation projects have already been constructed with well-defined canal networks. These developments have boosted agricultural productivity in the region, but at the same time they are causing an economic disparity between the command areas (irrigated by these canals) and non-command areas. Water-logging problems are also occurring in low-lying areas. While these problems are mainly due to poor groundwater management strategies in the region, the groundwater resources in these headwater basins should be properly assessed and suitable measures taken for uniform groundwater development. As a first step in this direction, groundwater resources have been assessed as a case study for the lower Koyna River basin, a head water basin on the east of the main ridge of the Western Ghats.Regional specific yield (0.012) and groundwater recharge have been estimated on the basis of water table fluctuation method. Groundwater recharge amounting to 57 MCM (million m³) in a year takes place in the region through vertical percolation of rainwater (31 MCM), return flow of water applied for irrigation (23 MCM), and recharge due to surface water tanks (3 MCM). Recharge to deeper aquifers has been estimated at 1 MCM during dry seasons (November–May). Safe yield has been estimated at 58 MCM annually which includes the present groundwater draft by wells for domestic, stock, and irrigational needs estimated at 16.50 MCM per year and the natural losses from the groundwater system which are mostly baseflow and spring discharges amounting to 38 MCM (35 MCM baseflow + 3 MCM spring flow) per year, out of which 7 MCM is already being directly pumped from the tributaries of the Koyna River for irrigational needs. Thus, there remains a balance of only 3.5 MCM of groundwater for further groundwater development. Assuming that at least 25% (7 MCM) of the unutilized baseflow (28 MCM) can be brought to fruitful use, about 10.5 MCM (7+3.5 MCM) of groundwater can be used in the existing hydrogeological environment through about 500 additional wells.

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Resumen La región de las montañas de Western Ghats, al Oeste de la Península India, registra elevados valores de precipitación (de 4.000 a 6.000 mm/a), pero las condiciones topográficas de dichas montañas no permiten la existencia de acuíferos de entidad suficiente para albergar volúmenes grandes de aguas subterráneas. Los valles estrechos de las montañas sí permiten el desarrollo de las aguas superficiales, de manea que se ha realizado varios proyectos medianos y grandes de riego mediante redes de canales bien definidas. Estos desarrollos han propiciado un aumento de la producción agrícola en la región, pero, a la vez, se ha agudizado las diferencias económicas entre las zonas regadas y las no regadas. Además, las depresiones topográficas están padeciendo problemas de inundación. Como estos problemas son principalmente debidos a estrategias deficientes de gestión de las aguas subterráneas, se recomienda que los recursos subterráneas de las cuencas de cabecera sean adecuadamente determinados, y que se adopte medidas apropiadas para desarrollarlos uniformemente. El primer paso ha consistido en determinar los recursos subterráneos de la cabecera del río Koynam, situada al Este de la Sierra principal de los Western Ghats. Se ha estimado todos los parámetros de recarga y descarga, así como los recursos renovables, en la cuenca del río Koyna ubicada aguas debajo de la presa de Koyna.

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Résumé La région des Collines occidentales (Western Ghats) de la péninsule indienne en Inde occidentale reçoit de fortes précipitations (4.000–6.000 mm/an); mais les bassins situés en tête qui convergent dans ces collines retiennent très peu d'eaux souterraines du fait des mauvaises conditions de pente en surface. Les vallées étroites dans ces collines offrent de larges espaces pour la mise en valeur des eaux de surface, en sorte que plusieurs projets d'irrigation moyens ou importants ont déjà été réalisés dans ces régions avec un réseau bien défini de canaux. Cette mise en valeur a réellement poussé la productivité agricole de la région, mais en même temps elle produit aussi une disparité économique entre les régions desservies (zones irriguées par ces canaux) et non desservies. Des problèmes relatifs à l'eau se posent également dans les zones basses. Alors que ces problèmes sont surtout dus à de médiocres stratégies de gestion dans la région, il est recommandé que les ressources en eaux souterraines dans ces bassins en tête soient correctement évaluées et que des mesures adéquates soient prises en vue d'une mise en valeur uniforme des eaux souterraines. À titre de première étape dans cette direction, les ressources en eaux souterraines ont été évaluées lors d'une étude de cas du bassin de la rivière Koyna, un bassin de tête situé à l'est de la chaîne principale des Collines Occidentales. Tous les paramètres d'entrée et de sortie ont été estimés et un bilan a été réalisé entre ces deux composantes. Les ressources statiques et dynamiques en eaux souterraines ont été estimées et un rendement sûr a été déterminé pour le bassin de la rivière Koyna en aval du barrage de Koyna.

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