Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam: challenges and potentials

This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages, often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.

Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities

Recent chemical accidents precipitated by natural disasters have prompted governments in the United States, Japan, and Europe, among other countries, to re-evaluate current practices in the design and risk management of industrial facilities. This paper presents an overview of natural hazard design considerations and external events risk management requirements in the industrial sector, with particular emphasis on industrial practices in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The analysis shows that although regulations exist to ensure industrial plant structures are built to resist natural hazards (up to the design level), there are few laws to address the performance of non-structural elements and safety and emergency response measures during a natural disaster. Laws usually also refer to natural hazards only indirectly, and provisions to prevent or respond to simultaneous disasters from single or multiple sources concurrent with the natural disaster are usually not present.

Natech risk and management: an assessment of the state of the art

The present state-of-the-art for natech risk and management is discussed. Examples of recent natechs include catastrophic oil spills associated with Hurricane Katrina and hazardous chemical releases in Europe during the heavy floods of 2002. Natechs create difficult challenges for emergency responders due to the geographical extent of the natural disaster, the likelihood of simultaneous releases, emergency personnel being preoccupied with response to the natural disaster, mitigation measures failing due to the effects of the natural disaster, and others. Recovery from natechs may be much more difficult than for “normal” chemical accidents, as the economic and social conditions of the industrial facility and the surrounding community may have been drastically altered by the natural disaster. Potential safeguards against natechs include adoption of stricter design criteria, chemical process safeguards, community land use planning, disaster mitigation and response planning, and sustainable industrial processes, but these safeguards are only sporadically applied. Ultimately, the public must engage in a comprehensive discussion of acceptable risks for natechs.

A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river,Germany

In this paper we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach includes flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms; it shows the spatial distribution of multiple risks, and it is able to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to show their influence on the overall flood risk assessment. Additionally, the approach can be used to show the spatial allocation of the flood effects if risk reduction measures are implemented. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany, heavily affected by the hazardous flood in 2002. Therefore, a GIS database of economic, social and environmental risk criteria was created. Two different multicriteria decision rules, a disjunctive and an additive weighting approach, are utilised for an overall flood risk assessment in the area. For implementation, a software tool (FloodCalc) was developed supporting both, the risk calculation of the single criteria as well as the multicriteria analysis.

A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities

There is increasing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological accidents and damage. These so-called Natech accidents can pose a significant risk to regions that are unprepared for responding to them. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has recognised the risk associated with Natech events and has started systematic research into Natechs and their underlying dynamics. This work investigates the risk associated with the flooding of industrial installations through an analysis of past case histories and using expert judgement. The potential impact of three levels of flood severity on selected industrial facilities storing and/or processing (eco-)toxic, flammable or explosive materials is analysed qualitatively and a scale is developed that links the flood intensity to the level of potential damage. Our analysis indicates that natural disasters have the potential for triggering hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Hence, natural disasters should be considered as separate accident-triggering events in the planning, design and operating stages of industrial facilities that process or store hazardous substances. Our work revealed a lack of detailed information on the occurrence of Natech events which indicates not necessarily a scarcity of Natechs but rather a lack of standardised reporting and record keeping.     

The regionalization of urban natural disasters in China

An integrated urbanization level (CL) index and an integrated natural disaster intensity (QC) index were developed on the basis of Disaster System Theory and China Natural Disaster Database for integrated urban disaster risk assessment. Integrated quantitative assessments of the urban socio-economic system and the intensity of hazards in China were carried out by the Model-Tupu (map series) and inter-feedback process using digital map technology. On the basis of this assessment, China can be regionalized into three regions, namely, coastal urban disaster region, eastern urban disaster region and western urban disaster region, 15 sub-regions and 22 units. These results can provide a scientific basis for determining a city’s disaster risk management and natural disaster relief regionalization in China.

Hydrochemistry of the Natuf drainage basin in Ramallah area/West Bank

The Natuf drainage basin in the western hills of Ramallah district is about 200 km² _. Many springs emerge in the area from perched aquifers and outcrop from limestone and dolomite limestone formations. This study aims to add more information about hydrochemical parameters and the chemical changes in spring water between dry and wet seasons and to locate possible sources of pollution and their effect on the water quality of water from the springs for domestic and agricultural uses. The study involved collection and analysis by conventional and available instrumental methods for the hydrochemical parameters from 12 springs before and after recharge. Water samples of runoff from two places in eastern and western parts of the study area were collected and analyzed as well. Most of the springs in the study area are of good water quality for domestic and agricultural uses. Variations in the chemical composition between dry and wet seasons, and from one spring to another, were observed. Springs near densely populated areas and agricultural activities show higher values of EC, SSP, SAR and TH. Also uncountable colonies of faecal- and total coliform were detected. Trace amounts, within World Health Organization (WHO) and the Palestinian standard limits, of cadmium, chromium, cobalt and lead are found in some springs; while concentrations of iron and zinc that were detected in springs near populated areas are higher than other springs. Water types of Ein Musbah, Al Alaq and Ein Arik El Tehta are of earth alkaline with increased portion of alkalis with prevailing bicarbonate and chloride in wet and dry seasons. Other springs show a variation in water type between earth alkaline with prevailing bicarbonate in the wet seasons to earth alkaline with prevailing bicarbonate and chloride in the dry seasons.

Evaluation of parameters affecting earthquake damage by decision tree techniques

Earthquake damages are assessed based on a holistic approach using structural as well as non-structural factors to model earthquake damage distributions with Decision Tree Techniques, using the Answer Tree program and the damage data from recent major earthquakes in Turkey. The damage dataset consists of approximately 9,400 buildings that were surveyed to evaluate the factors affecting building damage after Erzincan [1992], Dinar [1995], and Kocaeli [1999] earthquakes. The earthquake damage is defined as the dependent variable, while earthquake magnitude (M), intensity (I) in the city, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in each city, epicenter distance (ED), building types (BT), number of storeys (NS), presence of soft storey (SS), building position (BP) on the site, and site conditions (SC) are independent variables in the proposed model. The damage level (DL) was classified with respect to red, yellow, and green codes. The main purpose was (1) to identify the factors controlling building damage during earthquakes; (b) to determine the most significant factor; (c) to evaluate the effects of different factors for different earthquakes; (d) to develop damage distribution models for different subgroups based on the Decision Tree Techniques.

Patterns of population change in Ghana (1984–2000): urbanization and frontier development

The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level, the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential driving forces for rapid population growth related to size, location, accessibility and facility counts are examined using bivariate and multivariate analysis. An index of weighted accessibility relative to other urban localities provides significant explanation at the national level, as does initial locality size. At the regional level, population development is analyzed to provide insight into the rural–urban relations. The level of urbanization is steadily increasing but varies considerably between regions. Areas of high population growth are found in some rural areas that have a remote location relative to the large urban centers. This seems to indicate the existence of ‘frontier’ regions, i.e. areas that experience a high degree of in-migration by people aiming to undertake specific farming activities. A high proportion of the population growth in these areas appears to take place in relatively small towns. The paper concludes with a more in-depth discussion of the development characteristics of Ghana’s Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates, mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier’ for cocoa production.

Post-disaster assessment of hazard mitigation for small and medium-magnitude debris flow disasters in Bali,Indonesia and Jimani,Dominican Republic

This article explores whether past exposure to debris flow disasters with a human dimension (e.g. caused in part by deforestation) results in adaptive hazard mitigation and improved environmental and resource management practices in affected areas. When guiding hazard mitigation practice, the ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ approach views mitigation as a multi-dimensional experiment, with the associated need for post-experiment monitoring, evaluation, learning and adjustment, and attention paid to multiple scales (Bogardi 2004). This article explores how the concept of ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ has emerged, linking this ‘adaptive management’ used increasingly in resource and environmental management. Two case studies of disasters linked to human-induced environmental change are examined, and the mitigation responses of local communities, NGOs and Government agencies are documented. Data sources include secondary data (journal articles, web-based disaster reports and grey literature) on each disaster, key informant interviews (n = 8) and direct observation over the 2005–2006 period of post-disaster mitigation actions implemented after each disaster. The research indicates that in both case studies, a limited range of hazard mitigation actions was employed, including both structural and non-structural approaches. However, the research also found that causal factors involving human-induced environmental change (e.g. deforestation) were not addressed, and overall, the hazard mitigation strategies adopted lacked monitoring, learning and adjustment. In both case studies, responses to disaster were judged to be examples of ‘trial and error’ adaptation, rather than either ‘passive’ or ‘active’ adaptation.

Post-Bam earthquake: recovery and reconstruction

This paper gives a brief explanation of the earthquake in Bam. It also reports on the rescue and relief operations, including the construction of emergency shelters and temporary housing, and on the country’s plan for the reconstruction of the city, which includes debris removal, the rebuilding of rural and urban residential and commercial units, the reconstruction of state and public buildings and public facilities such as schools, rural and urban water aqueducts and grids, the construction of a sewage system, power network and telecommunication system, the provision of water to orchards and farmlands, the renovation of industries and the revival of the cultural heritage, particularly the historical Bam citadel, among others. We also report briefly on the effect of the Bam earthquake on the Iran Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategy and actions.

Why are flood and landslide victims less willing to take mitigation measures than the public?

Almost annually, natural hazards such as floods and landslides cause a great deal of financial loss and human suffering in Taiwan. In order to gain a better understanding of disaster preparedness, this paper examines several factors in relation to hazard mitigation behavior: social economic status (education, income), psychological vulnerability (sense of powerless and helpless), risk perception (perceived impact and control) and social trust. The statistical analysis reported here is based on the “2004 National Risk Perception Survey of Floods and Landslides in Taiwan”. The main findings include: (1) in comparison with general public, victims are less willing to adopt risk mitigation measures than the public, even though they perceive larger impacts, worry more about the hazard, and pay more attention to hazard information; (2) trust, risk perception and social economic status are positive predictors for mitigation intentions, whereas psychological vulnerability is a negative predictor; and (3) psychological variables are stronger predictors for mitigation intentions than that of socio-economic variables. In light of these findings, the policy implications and intervention strategy are also discussed.

Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005

There is a need for comprehensive, standardised and georeferenced information on floods for political and economic decision-making. Relevant, accurate and up-to-date data is an important aspect for resource distribution, mitigation programmes, disaster monitoring and assessment. Despite this, there is a lack of spatial and thematic accurate global data for floods. In Europe, historic data on flood losses and casualties are neither comprehensive nor standardised, thus making long-term analyses at continental level difficult. In this article, we present a map and catalogue of the major flood events of the last 56 years in the European Union (EU), Bulgaria and Romania. This study is an effort to alleviate the lack of homogeneous and georeferenced information on flood disasters for large periods in Europe. The objectives of this paper are to identify and classify the major flood disasters of the last 56 years in the EU; to map the major flood disasters at pan-European scale with the support of a potential flood hazard map and ancillary GIS datasets; and to give a picture of the current situation for major floods in the EU on the basis of past events and current trends. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre of Research on Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) and United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and NATHAN of Munich Re are two of the main public global databases for natural disasters. Information from EM-DAT and NATHAN on flood disasters producing more than 70 casualties and/or more than 0.005% of EU GDP in damage has been assessed for the production of the map and catalogue of major flood disasters in Europe.

Tornado shelters and the manufactured home parks market

Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the housing market but are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes. In the US over 40% of tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes even though they comprise about 8% of US housing units. We examine the market for tornado shelters in manufactured home parks in Oklahoma. Almost 60% of parks in the state have shelters, with 90% of the shelters underground. Parks with shelters are not concentrated in urban areas but spread across the state, with parks with shelters in 32 counties. We find that rents for lots in parks with shelters are 5–8% higher, which generates sufficient revenue to approximately pay for shelters, but the point estimate is statistically significant in only one specification.

Environmental concerns of poor households in low-income cities: the case of the Tamale Metropolis,Ghana

The Tamale Metropolitan Area (TMA), as a low-income city in a heavily indebted poor country, is at the first stage of the urban environmental transition where most of the environmental problems tend to occur close to the home. Some of the more severe household environmental problems are poor housing, inadequate potable water supply, unsanitary conditions, uncollected garbage, indoor air pollution and pest infestation. Those usually exposed to these environmental burdens are the less wealthy households who have benefited less from development planning and infrastructure provision. Using questionnaire survey and focus group discussions, this study explored the environmental anxieties of households in the metropolis. A stratified sample of residential areas of the city was employed, and the study is able to examine city-wide disparities. The results indicate that problems of water supply are the concern of all groups. Sanitation and garbage disposal services are problems faced mainly by the poor in low-income areas. Other problems faced by the poor are overcrowding, indoor air pollution and pest infestation, but these problems are not highlighted by the poor reflecting a misplaced lack of concern for these problem areas and ignorance of the health risks posed by these hazards. The finding suggests a considerable demand for improvements in environmental service provision and a general willingness to pay for such improvements.

Peace Parks and jaguar trails: transboundary conservation in a globalizing world

An increasingly utilized strategy for expanding conservation in the developing world has been the promotion of protected areas that supersede national borders. Alternatively known as transfrontier biosphere reserves, transfrontier or transboundary conservation areas, or Peace Parks, these protected areas are aggressively advanced by conservation agencies for their purported ecological and economic benefits. This article provides a comparative assessment of two case studies to understand the various impacts of transboundary conservation. The Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park, which unites protected areas in South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, is contrasted with efforts to protect jaguars along the United States–Mexico border. We argue that while these cases are promising for the purposes of biodiversity protection, they demonstrate that transboundary conservation can minimize political context, contributes to the hegemony of international conservation agendas, and remains closely linked to economic neoliberalism and decentralization in the developing world.

Snow avalanches striking water basins: behaviour of the avalanche’s centre of mass and front

Gutenberg and Richter developed an empirical relation, \(\log_{10} N(M) = a - bM\), to quantify the seismicity rate of various magnitudes in a given region and time period. They found the equation fit observed data well both globally and for particular regions. In conventional G–R relation, N(M) represents an arithmetic mean. As a result, the arithmetic standard deviation cannot be explicitly incorporated in the log-linear G–R relation. Moreover, this representation is susceptible to influence of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks of major earthquake sequences. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose an alternative representation of the G–R relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We select the crustal earthquake data from 1973 to 2011, as listed in the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) global catalog and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan regional catalog, to illustrate our methodology. We first show that by using the logarithmic annual seismicity rates we can significantly suppress the influences of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks following major earthquake sequences contained in the Taiwan regional catalog. More significantly, both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation can be explicitly represented in the Gutenberg–Richter relation as follows:

$${\text{For}}\,{\text{global}}\,{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13);$$

$${\text{For}}\,{\text{Taiwan}}\;{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)$$

where log₁₀ N represents the logarithmic annual seismicity rate. Above analytical equations are very well constrained by observed global seismicity data with \(5.0 \le M \le 7.0\) and by Taiwan seismicity data with \(3.0 \le M \le 5.0\). Both equations can be extrapolated with confidence to simultaneously estimate not only the median annual seismicity rates but also their uncertainties for large earthquakes for the first time since inception of the G–R relation. These equations can be used to improve the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by including the dispersion of the annual seismicity rate. Finally, the corresponding numerical median annual seismicity rate with its upper and lower bounds obtained from above equations for \(5.0 \le M \le 9.0\) is listed in Table 1.

Table 1 Observed and estimated median annual seismicity rate and return period with their dispersions for Taiwan and global crustal earthquakes

Magnitude	Catalog
	Taiwan catalog (CWB)	Taiwan catalog (CWB)	Global catalog (NEIC)	Global catalog (NEIC)
	Annual rate (event/year)	Return period (year)	Annual rate (event/year)	Return period (year)
M ≥ 5.0	24.55 13.18 7.08	0.041 0.076 0.14	1148.16 977.24 831.76	0.0009 0.001 0.0012
M ≥ 5.5	8.91 4.68 2.45	0.11 0.21 0.41	367.28 298.54 242.66	0.0027 0.0033 0.0041
M ≥ 6.0	3.24 1.66 0.85	0.31 0.60 1.18	117.49 91.20 70.79	0.0085 0.011 0.014
M ≥ 6.5	1.17 0.59 0.30	0.85 1.69 3.33	37.58 27.86 20.65	0.027 0.036 0.048
M ≥ 7.0	0.43 0.21 0.10	2.33 4.76 10.0	12.02 8.51 6.03	0.083 0.12 0.17
M ≥ 7.5	0.15 0.074 0.036	6.67 13.51 27.78	3.85 2.60 1.76	0.26 0.38 0.57
M ≥ 8.0	0.056 0.026 0.012	17.86 38.46 83.33	1.23 0.79 0.51	0.81 1.27 1.96
M ≥ 8.5	0.020 0.009 0.004	50.00 111.11 250.0	0.39 0.24 0.15	2.56 4.17 6.67
M ≥ 9.0	0.0074 0.0033 0.0015	135.14 303.03 666.67	0.13 0.074 0.04	7.69 13.51 25.00

Observed value is shown in bold number, estimated value in regular number \(\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)\) for Taiwan crustal earthquakes \(\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13)\) for global crustal earthquakes

     

Development of a parameterization for simulating the urban temperature hazard using satellite observations in climate model

Urban surface temperature is hazardously higher than surrounding regions (so-called urban heat island effect UHI). Accurately simulating urbanization-induced temperature hazard is critical for realistically representing urban regions in the land surface-atmosphere climate system. However, inclusion of urban landscapes in regional or global climate models has been overlooked due to the coarse spatial resolution of these models as well as the lack of observations for urban physical properties. Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations illustrate important urban physical properties, including skin temperature, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and leaf area index, It is possible to identify the unique urban features globally and thus simulate global urban processes. An urban scheme is designed to represent the urban-modified physical parameters (albedo, emissivity, land cover, roughness length, thermal and hydraulic properties) and to include new, unique physical processes that exist in urban regions. The urban scheme is coupled with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model Version 2 (CLM2) and single column coupled NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2/CLM2 to assess the mechanisms responsible for UHI. There are two-steps in our model development. First, satellite observations of albedo, emissivity, LAI, and in situ observed thermal properties are updated in CLM2 to represent the first-order urban effects. Second, new terms representing the urban anthropogenic heat flux, storage heat flux, and roughness length are calculated in the model. Model simulations suggest that human activity-induced surface temperature hazard results in overlying atmosphere instability and convective rainfall, which may enhance the possibility of urban flood hazard.

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

The Tsunami of August 17, 1999 in Izmit Bay,Turkey

The Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake with an Mw = 7.4 caused major hazards throughout the NW of Turkey from Tekirdag to Bolu. Historical data indicates that some of the earthquakes around Izmit Bay have caused tsunamis. In this study, tsunami research for the Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake has been made also taking into consideration historical data. In this research more than about 70 data at 35 localities have been used to determine the tsunami evidences in the bay. Coastal observations indicated runups which were ranging from 1 to 2.5 m along the shores. However, the wave runups are more complex along the south coast due to the presence of coastal landslides (Deirmendere, Halidere, Ulasli, Karamürsel) and subsided areas (Kavakli to Yeniköy) along the shore. West of Yalova, evidence of tsunami rapidly diminished. In addition, possible tectonic mechanism has been determined by using 33 single-channel high-resolution digital seismic reflection profiles which were acquired following the Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake. As a result it has been determined that the Kocaeli Earthquake has created tsunami in Izmit Bay.