Source parameters of mining-induced seismic events: An evaluation of homogeneous and inhomogeneous faulting models for assessing damage potential

Source parameter estimates based on the homogeneous and inhomogeneous source models have been examined for an anomalous sequence of seven mine-induced events located between 640 and 825 m depth at Strathcona mine, Ontario, and having magnitudes ranging betweenm _N 0.8 and 2.7. The derived Brune static stress drops were found to be similar to those observed for natural earthquakes (30 bars), whereas dynamic stress drops were found to range up to 250–300 bars. Source radii derived from Madariaga's model better fit documented evidence of underground damage. These values of source radii were similar to those observed for the inhomogeneous model. The displacement at the source, based on the observed attenuation relationship, was about 60 mm for three magnitude 2.7 events. This is in agreement with slip values calculated using peak velocities and assuming the asperity as a Brune source within itself (72 mm). By using Madariaga's model for the asperity, the slip was over 3 times larger than observed. Peak velocity and acceleration scaling relations with magnitude were investigated by incorporating available South African data, appropriately reduced to Canadian geophysical conditions. The dynamic stress drop scaled as the square root of the seismic moment, similar to reported results in the literature for crustal earthquakes. This behavior suggests that the size of the asperities responsible for the peak ground motion, with respect to the overall source size, follow distributions that may be similar over a wide range of magnitudes. Measurements of source rupture complexity (ranging from 2 to 4) were found to agree with estimates of overall source to asperity radii, suggesting, together with the observed low rupture velocities (0.3 to 0.6 ), that the sources were somewhat complex. Validation of source model appropriateness was achieved by direct comparison of the predicted ground motion level to observed underground damage in Creighton mine, located within the same regional stress and geological regime as Strathcona mine. Close to the source (<100 m), corresponding to relatively higher damage levels, a good agreement was found between the predicted peak particle velocities for the inhomogeneous model and velocities derived based on established geomechanical relationships. The similarity between asperity radii and the regions of the highest observed damage provided additional support for the use of the inhomogeneous source model in the assessment of damage potential.     

Moment magnitude determination of local seismic events recorded at selected Polish seismic stations

The paper presents the method of local magnitude determination used at Polish seismic stations to report events originating in one of the four regions of induced seismicity in Poland or its immediate vicinity. The method is based on recalculation of the seismic moment into magnitude, whereas the seismic moment is obtained from spectral analysis. The method has been introduced at Polish seismic stations in the late 1990s but as of yet had not been described in full because magnitude discrepancies have been found between the results of the individual stations. The authors have performed statistics of these differences, provide their explanation and calculate station corrections for each station and each event source region. The limitations of the method are also discussed. The method is found to be a good and reliable method of local magnitude determination provided the limitations are observed and station correction applied.     

Accounting for source location errors in the bayesian analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard

A method is presented for incorporating the uncertainties associated with hypocentral locations in the formulation of probabilistic models of the time and space distributions of the activity of potential seismic sources, as well as of the resulting seismic hazard functions at sites in their vicinity. For this purpose, a bayesian framework of analysis is adopted, where the probabilistic models considered are assumed to have known forms and uncertain parameters, the distribution of the latter being the result of an a priori assessment and its updating through the incorporation of the direct statistical information, including the uncertainty associated with the relations between the actual hypocentral locations and the reported data. This uncertainty is incorporated in the evaluation of the likelihood function of the parameters to be estimated for a given sample of recorded locations. For the purpose of illustration, the method proposed is applied to the modelling of the seismic sources near a site close to the southern coast of Mexico. The results of two alternate algorithms for the incorporation of location uncertainties are compared with those arising from neglecting those uncertainties. One of them makes use of Monte Carlo simulation, while the other is based on a closed-form analytical integration following the introduction of some simplifying assumptions. For the particular case studied, accounting for location uncertainties gives place to significant changes in the probabilistic models of the seismic sources. Deviations of the same order of magnitude can be ascribed to differences in the mathematical and/or numerical tools used in the uncertainty analysis. The resulting variability of the seismic hazard at the site of interest is less pronounced than that affecting the estimates of activity of individual seismic sources.     

Effects of mining-induced seismic events on a deep underground mine

The performance of an underground excavation at the Lucky Friday Mine that was subjected to repetitive episodes of mining-induced seismic activities is assessed. Field measurements indicate that an underground excavation may respond to mining-induced seismicity with step changes in displacement of the rock mass around the excavation or step changes in excavation closures. However, step changes in displacement or closure were also observed without the presence of mine seismic events. This behavior may be explained using the concept of stick-slip on joints or bedding planes within the rock mass. The stick-slip mechanism is believed to be controlled by the state of stresses at a joint or bedding plane. Through this mechanism, joint displacement is accumulated in a progressive fashion leading to a weakening of rock mass around an excavation. As a result, the excavation becomes less stable and therefore is more susceptible to seismic impacts. The concept of using peak particle velocity to assess damage threshold for underground excavations may not be conservative when considering the effect of rock mass fatigue.     

Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation

In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.     

地震断层面上凹凸体和障碍体含义的解析

由凹凸体和障碍体研究引入的非均匀地震破裂模式,可解释主震前破裂的成因及主破裂之后的应力集中,对地震危险性分析具有重要的理论价值。本文在国内外研究成果的基础上,深入研究了凹凸体和障碍体在地震破裂过程中的作用和意义,解析了凹凸体和障碍体的本质含义,对比分析了两种模式的异同之处,给出了两种模式在不同滑动模型中的适用性,为地震安全性评价提供了有力的理论依据。     

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Introduction Strong and large earthquakes are prepared and generated on specific segments of active fault zones, especially on the asperity parts of the zones (Aki, 1984; Wiemer, Wyss, 1997; Wyss, et al, 2000). Therefore, both the faulting-behavior identification and the rupture segmentation mainly based on the method of active tectonics are always important aspects in active fault research (DING, et al, 1993). The purposes of the two aspects of research focus on determining fault units tha…     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999-2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seis-mic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accu-racy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tec-tonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

基于波形相关性的地震事件分类

讨论了地震波形相似性的定量描述手段,计算了长白山及附近地区2004年发生的20个较小地震事件的地震波形相关系数,探讨了波形相关性与震源类型的关系。     

1996年5月3日包头西Ms=6.4地震的矩张量解

利用ＣＤＳＮ及ＧＤＳＮ数字化Ｐ波波形资料,用遗传算法反演１９９６年包头西ＭＳ＝６．４地震的地震矩张量解。结果表明该地震矩张量解以双力偶成分为主,是断层面接近南北走向的左旋走滑错动,断裂面走向与大震后５天内余震的分布带走向基本一致。压应力轴与张应力转接近水平,前者近北西西走向,后者近北北东走向。     

Analysis of mining-induced microseismic events at Strathcona Mine,Subdury, Canada

Rockbursts and mining-induced seismic events have serious socio-economic consequences for the Canadian mining industry, as their mines are extended to greater depths. Automatic multichannel monitoring systems (Electro-Lab MP250s) are routinely, used to detect the arrival times of seismic waves radiated by mining-induced events and sensed on an array of single component transducers installed throughout a mine. These arrival times are then used to locate the events and produce maps of areas of high activity for use in mine planning and design. This approach has limitations in that, it does not allow a detailed analysis of source mechanisms, which could be extracted if whole waveform signals are recorded and analyzed.A major research project, sponsored by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) with the collaboration of the Canadian mining industry, is aimed at enhancing existing mine seismic monitoring technology in Canada, in order to carry out more advanced processing of data to obtain fundamental scientific information on mining-induced seismic events This paper describes preliminary results from seismic monitoring experiments carried out in a hard rock nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada. Existing seismic monitoring instrumentation was enhanced with a low cost microcomputer-based whole waveform seismic acquisition system. Some of the signals recorded during this experiment indicate anisotropic wave propagation through the mine rock masses, as observed by the splitting of shear waves and the relative arrival of two shear waves polarized in directions which may be related to the structural fabric and/or state of stress in the rock mass. Analysis of compressional wave first motion shows the predominance of shear events, as indicated by focal mechanism studies and is confirmed by spectral analysis of the waveforms. The source parameters were estimated fro typical low magnitude localized microseismic events during the initial monitoring experiments. The seismic moment of these events varied between 10⁶ N.m and 2.10⁸ N.m. with a circular source radius of between 1 m and 2 m with an estimated stress drop of the order of 1 MPa.     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.     

东南沿海地震带的地震迁移特征

东南沿海地震带可被划分为４条次级的ＮＥ向地震活动带,分别为滨海、汕头－惠来、河源－阳江和吴川－四会等地震带。分析了这些地震带上Ｍｓ≥４＾３／４级地震的迁移方向和速率,发现地震沿带的主体ＮＥ方向作定向或往返迁移,但各带迁移路线和速率各异,这可能与断裂活动的均匀性、差异性和构造应力作用方式有关。     

中国地震震源机制测定结果的比较

在搜集了 1 988年以来 ,地震学家用不同方法和不同资料测定的中国地震震源机制结果 ,包括用地震波形反演得到的地震矩张量、P波初动解和用地形变观测反演的震源参数的基础上 ,计算了同一地震的不同反演结果的滑动矢量之间的夹角、不同反演结果 P,T轴之间的夹角和不同的反演结果给出的地震矩之间的差别 ;并与哈佛 CMT的结果进行比较。结果表明 ,同一地震不同测定结果的滑动矢量之间的夹角分布较分散 ,但优势分布在 2 0°左右 ;不同测定结果的地震矩一般不超过 1倍 ,对应的震级差约为 0 .2 ;中国地震矩张量的测定结果与哈佛矩心矩张量测定结果滑动矢量之间的夹角集中在 0°～ 1 0°。以丽江地震为例 ,讨论了地震震源参数的不同结果对地震“应力触发”中库仑破裂应力计算结果的影响。     

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.     

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.     

Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …