Participatory model assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard models

The study described in this paper investigates the relative merits of two peer-reviewed earthquake-induced landslide models using participatory model assessment. The earthquake-induced landslide hazard models assessed are a simplified Newmark’s displacement model and a recently developed knowledge-based model. Participatory model assessment involves conducting facilitated participatory processes where the model(s) are used for aiding decisions within a socio-behavioral experiment designed for collecting data to evaluate formal hypotheses about the model(s). The paper sets out the design of the participatory model assessment—a series of workshops involving experts and potential model end-users that incorporated a roleplay site selection task. Quantitative data elicited using a set of entrance and exit questionnaires were analyzed to investigate hypotheses about the models. Participants found the knowledge-based model to be significantly more complete and more informative for their roleplay task. Overall, the two models did not yield significant differences with respect to issues such as task efficiency or task outcome satisfaction. Lastly, it was found that education level and disciplinary perspectives (of those analyzed) did not significantly affect outcomes, suggesting that a wide demographic of participants can be used for participatory model assessments. Additional research is needed to assess the models in different contexts, as well as more broadly developing a set of best practices for conducting participatory model assessments of other natural hazard and risk models intended to support decision-making.     

Performance-based assessment of earthquake-induced catastrophic landslide hazard in liquefiable soils

This paper outlines a methodology for evaluating the likelihood of catastrophic landslide occurrence on gentle slopes in liquefiable soils during earthquake. The approach is based on a modified Newmark sliding block model of assessing the earthquake-induced undrained landslide displacements for conditions of no shear stress reversals on the sliding surface. By employing the shear resistance-displacement relationship from undrained monotonic ring shear tests, the simulation model incorporates the sensitivity of computed displacements to variations in yield acceleration. The proposed approach involves an examination of undrained seismic slope performance under various horizontal seismic waveforms scaled to different specific values of the peak earthquake acceleration. An example problem illustrates how the proposed methodology may be used to demarcate, based on the magnitude of permanent seismic displacement, the levels of low, moderate and high risk of catastrophic landslide on a gentle slope in a saturated cohesionless soil susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake.     

Statistical approach to earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility

Susceptibility analysis for predicting earthquake-induced landslides has most frequently been done using deterministic methods; multivariate statistical methods have not previously been applied. In this study, however, we introduce a statistical methodology that uses the intensity of earthquake shaking as a landslide triggering factor. This methodology is applied in a study of shallow earthquake-induced landslides in central western Taiwan. The results show that we can accurately interpret landslide distribution in the study area and predict the occurrence of landslides in neighboring regions. This susceptibility model is capable of predicting shallow landslides induced during an earthquake scenario with similar range of ground shaking, without requiring the use of geotechnical, groundwater or failure depth data.     

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.     

一种改进的区域滑坡危险性评价模型及其应用

区域滑坡危险性评价方法还存在许多需要完善和改进的地方。以工程地质类比法为基础,用滑坡的面密度表示滑坡发生的危险性大小,基于线性代数中QR分解理论,提出了一种用高次多项式拟合致险因子与滑坡危险性间关系的算法,并把该算法与层次分析法模型、条件概率模型相融合,建立了一种改进的区域滑坡危险性评价模型。然后,通过在Visual Studio.Net C#环境下借助ArcEngine组件的二次开发实现了该模型。最后选取陕西省麟游县为实验区域,利用上述模型进行了滑坡危险性评价。经实际资料检验表明,该模型具有较高的可信度,可应用于今后的滑坡危险性区域评价工作中。     

地形起伏度和坡度分析在区域滑坡灾害评价中的应用

基于ArcGIS平台,利用SRTM3-DEM数据资料,选择鄂尔多斯及其周缘为研究区,计算并定量分析了地形起伏度和坡度,并利用区域滑坡灾害调查资料,初步建立了地形起伏度、坡度与滑坡灾害之间的相关性,讨论了地形起伏度的区域地貌意义。结果表明,研究区滑坡集中发育地区的地形起伏度为200￣300m,在此范围内滑坡占研究区所有滑坡总数的48.5%,此区间的面积占研究区总面积的20.3%;坡度为10￣18°,此范围内滑坡占研究区所有滑坡总数的46.7%,而此区间的面积占研究区总面积的30.5%。在地貌类型上,滑坡集中发育地区对应残丘、黄土塬及黄土墚等。通过研究区横向、纵向剖面的地形特征分析,表明地形起伏度和坡度分析是相互补充的,它们均与区域滑坡发生和分布存在良好的相关性。这种相关性为区域滑坡灾害评价提供了新的思路,对区域防灾规划和灾害区预测具有重要的应用意义。     

基于ArcGIS可视化建模方式的区域滑坡危险性评价

滑坡危险性评价是滑坡灾害防治的重要前提和基础,简单高效的评价方式是其中的一个研究重点。本文以四川安县作为研究区域,基于ArcGIS中的分析功能,引入可视化的建模工具Modelbuilder,以模型的方式演示和运行整个滑坡危险性评价过程,得到了滑坡危险性的分级图,并进行对比分析。实验结果表明,利用可视化建模方式完成复杂地区的滑坡危险性评价,能够简化操作流程,节约时间和精力。     

基于机器学习的区域滑坡危险性评价方法综述

我国滑坡灾害分布范围广,危害严重。区域滑坡危险性评价一直都是滑坡灾害防灾减灾的重要内容之一。近年来,随着大数据和人工智能技术的飞速发展,机器学习技术逐渐在滑坡灾害危险性评价方面得到广泛应用,并取得了较好效果。在大量研读文献的基础上,系统阐述了基于机器学习技术的滑坡危险性评价方法研究现状。综述从评价因子选择与量化归一化、数据清洗与样本集构建、模型选取与训练评价等三个关键环节对现有研究成果进行分析评述,最后对机器学习滑坡危险性评价方法的发展趋势提出讨论意见。     

Study of regional monsoonal effects on landslide hazard zonation in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

In general, landslides in Malaysia mostly occurred during northeast and southwest periods, two monsoonal systems that bring heavy rain. As the consequence, most landslide occurrences were induced by rainfall. This paper reports the effect of monsoonal-related geospatial data in landslide hazard modeling in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia, using Geographic Information System (GIS). Land surface temperature (LST) data was selected as the monsoonal rainfall footprints on the land surface. Four LST maps were derived from Landsat 7 thermal band acquired at peaks of dry and rainy seasons in 2001. The landslide factors chosen from topography map were slope, slope aspect, curvature, elevation, land use, proximity to road, and river/lake; while from geology map were lithology and proximity to lineament. Landslide characteristics were extracted by crossing between the landslide sites of Cameron Highlands and landslide factors. Using which, the weighting system was derived. Each landslide factors were divided into five subcategories. The highest weight values were assigned to those having the highest number of landslide occurrences. Weighted overlay was used as GIS operator to generate landslide hazard maps. GIS analysis was performed in two modes: (1) static mode, using all factors except LST data; (2) dynamic mode, using all factors including multi-temporal LST data. The effect of addition of LST maps was evaluated. The final landslide hazard maps were divided into five categories: very high risk, high risk, moderate, low risk, and very low risk. From verification process using landslide map, the landslide model can predict back about 13–16% very high risk sites and 70–93% of very high risk and high risk combined together. It was observed however that inclusion of LST maps does not necessarily increase the accuracy of the landslide model to predict landslide sites.     

BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用

滑坡灾害具有整体性、动态性、开放性和随机性的特点,而人工神经网络属于非线性动态系统,具有符合区域滑坡灾害风险预测的研究特点。应用BP模型,建立了区域滑坡灾害风险的预测流程,并与GIS技术相结合,对三峡水库蓄水条件下巴东新县城的滑坡灾害进行了危险性、易损性、风险性综合预测研究,证明了BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用可行性,同时指出了所存在的问题及可能解决的途径。     

Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation

As part of a long-term project aimed at a better understanding of the geological and geomorphological factors that control slope instability phenomena in Southern Italy, multivariate models for assessing landslide incidence hazard were developed and tested in two Calabrian sample areas characterized by different geological-geomorphological conditions. Discriminant analysis, based on a large set of mappable geological and geomorphical variables, is able to discriminate rather successfully between stable and unstable areas or slope units. Multiple regression analysis has also proved to be a useful tool in predicting actual and potential landslide hazard. Consequently, geomathematical models may provide a feasible approach to environmental hazard assessment, particularly when applied within the framework of a wider multidisciplinary project for land evaluation and planning.     

Area-scale landslide hazard and risk assessment

The paper deals with a methodology for quantitative landslide hazard and risk assessments over wide-scale areas. The approach was designed to fulfil the following requirements: (1) rapid investigation of large study areas; (2) use of elementary information, in order to satisfy the first requirement and to ensure validation, repetition and real time updating of the assessments every time new data are available; (3) computation of the landslide frequency of occurrence, in order to compare objectively different hazard conditions and to minimize references to qualitative hazard attributes such as activity states. The idea of multi-temporal analysis set forth by Cardinali et al. (Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2:57–72, 2002), has been stressed here to compute average recurrence time for individual landslides and to forecast their behaviour within reference time periods. The method is based on the observation of the landslide activity through aerial-photo surveys carried out in several time steps. The output is given by a landslide hazard map showing the mean return period of landslides reactivation. Assessing the hazard in a quantitative way allows for estimating quantitatively the risk as well; thus, the probability of the exposed elements (such as people and real estates) to suffer damages due to the occurrence of landslides can be calculated. The methodology here presented is illustrated with reference to a sample area in Central Italy (Umbria region), for which both the landslide hazard and risk for the human life are analysed and computed. Results show the powerful quantitative approach for assessing the exposure of human activities to the landslide threat for a best choice of the countermeasures needed to mitigate the risk.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Dynamic properties of earthquake-induced large-scale rapid landslides within past landslide masses

During the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake, thousands of landslides were triggered, among them two large-scale rapid landslides (Higashi Takezawa and Terano landslides) occurred within past landslide masses and dammed the river at the toe of the landslides, posing great risks for the society. Detailed field investigation was performed on these two landslides. To examine the triggering and movement mechanisms, samples were taken from these two landslides. By using a ring shear apparatus, real earthquake wave loading test and cyclic loading tests were performed on these samples. The test results revealed that those sand samples from both landslides can suffer from sliding surface liquefaction phenomenon with very low final apparent friction angles, while the silt sample from Terano landslide showed no liquefaction failure, indicating that the sliding surfaces of these rapid landslides must have been formed within the sand layer in the past landslide masses.     

滑坡易发性危险性风险评价例析

从易发性、危险性、风险的概念入手,依据国际上流行和通用的滑坡风险评价与管理理论,分析了易发性评价的内容,包括易发性评价到危险性评价需要增加的评价要素,以及从危险性评价到风险评价需要增加的评价要素,阐明了这三种评价之间的联系和区别。并通过延安宝塔区的滑坡易发性、危险性和风险的评价与区划具体说明三者的做法和结果。     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

模糊综合评判法分析地震滑坡启程能量转换

地震滑坡启程能量转化分析对于后期滑坡动力学研究极为重要,因其影响因素较多,具有模糊性,目前还没有准确的定量计算公式。模糊综合评判法分析模糊问题具有明显的优势,能够综合考虑各种因素给出总体评价。选取地震加速度、岩体结构类型、控制性结构面特征、岩体完整程度、地层岩性、地下水、不利结构面与临空面的夹角7个因素作为地震滑坡启程剧动能量转换大小划分的主要因素,详细分析各个因素对能量转化的影响。采用逻辑分区法确定隶属函数,应用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）确定各因素的权重。在此基础上,运用模糊数学综合评判方法得出能量转化率等级,半定量地确定能量转化率大小。以东河口地震滑坡为例,应用模糊综合评判法对其启程能量转换分析结果客观合理,表明该方法是科学可行的,在同类理论研究中可以借鉴。