Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes

A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.     

Reply to ‘Comment on “The beginnings of hydrous mantle wedge melting” by Till et al.’ by Green, Rosenthal and Kovacs

The comment of Green et al. debates the interpretation of the temperature of the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus and presence of silicate melt in the experiments of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) at <1,000?°C. The criticisms presented in their comment do not invalidate any of the most compelling observations of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) as discussed in the following response, including the changing minor element and Mg# composition of the solid phases with increasing temperature in our experiments with 14.5?wt% H₂O at 3.2?GPa, as well as the results of our chlorite peridotite melting experiments with 0.7?wt% H₂O. The point remains that Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) present data that call into question the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus temperature preferred by Green (Tectonophysics 13(1–4):47–71, 1972; Earth Planet Sci Lett 19(1):37–53, 1973; Can Miner 14:255–268, 1976); Millhollen et al. (J Geol 82(5):575–587, 1974); Mengel and Green (Stability of amphibole and phlogopite in metasomatized peridotite under water-saturated and water-undersaturated conditions, Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, Blackwell, pp 571-581, 1989); Wallace and Green (Mineral Petrol 44:1–19, 1991) and Green et al. (Nature 467(7314):448–451, 2010).     

Comment on “A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity” by Daojun Zhang,Frits Agterberg,Qiuming Cheng,and Renguang Zuo Math Geosci DOI 10.1007/s11004-013-9496-8

Despite a missing definition of equivalence of mathematical models or methods by Zhang et al. (Math Geosci, 2013), an “equivalence” (Zhang et al., Math Geosci, 2013, p. 6,7,8,14) of modified weights-of-evidence (Agterberg, Nat Resour Res 20:95–101, 2011) and logistic regression does not generally exist. Its alleged proof is based on a previously conjectured linear relationship between weights of evidence and logistic regression parameters (Deng, Nat Resour Res 18:249–258, 2009), which does not generally exist either (Schaeben and van den Boogaart, Nat Resour Res 20:401–406, 2011). In fact, an extremely simple linear relationship exists only if the predictor variables are conditionally independent given the target variable, in which case the contrasts, i.e., the differences of the weights, are equal to the logistic regression parameters. Thus, weights-of-evidence is the special case of logistic regression if the predictor variables are binary and conditionally independent given the target variable.     

Paleogeographical restoration and ramp tectonic evidence in Tunisian Tellian domain: Ain El Bey-Bou Awen area

The imbrication’s area in northern Tunisia is the most external segment of Alpine range, where several associated folds types with thrust ramps are recognized within imbricate units beneath Numidian front slope. Their presence help to understand thrusting mechanisms installation through studied area. In fact, this zone was considered as a result of Paleogene gravitary slop (Kujawski (Ann Miner Géol Tunis (24):281, 1969); Caire (Ann Min Géol Tunis 26:87–110, 1973); Rouvier 1977), which is proved to be affected by major deep decollement, given rise to various structures, some are propagation folds, specific of foreland front, limited to this area, and those in more external position: Tunisian Atlas (Creusot et al. (C R Acad Sci Paris 314(Sér II):961–965, 1992); Ouali and Mercier (PII: S0191-8141(97):00048-5, 1997); Ouali 1984; Ahmadi et al. (J Struct Geol 28:721–728, 2006)). Various categories of fold ramps could be identified: frontal folds ramp NE–SW and others as lateral or oblique ramp with NW–SE trend (Aridhi et al. (C R Geosci 343:360–369, 2011)). The relation between various structures has been used as recognition tools of thrusting sequences and to propose a new deformation chronology. Delimited outcropping of these structures between two both parallel faults strikes with regional displacement, leads to interpret these faults as cogenetic tear faults of propagation thrusts; this fault separates two domains with different deformation styles from each other side.     

Earthquake geology of Kashmir Basin and its implications for future large earthquakes

Two major traces of active thrust faults were identified in the Kashmir Basin (KB) using satellite images and by mapping active geomorphic features. The ~N130°E strike of the mapped thrust faults is consistent with the regional ~NE–SW convergence along the Indian–Eurasian collision zone. The ~NE dipping thrust faults have uplifted the young alluvial fan surfaces at the SW side of the KB. This created a major tectono-geomorphic boundary along the entire strike length of the KB that is characterised by (1) a low relief with sediment-filled sluggish streams to the SE and (2) an uplifted region, with actively flowing streams to the SW. The overall tectono-geomorphic expression suggests that recent activity along these faults has tilted the entire Kashmir valley towards NE. Further, the Mw 7.6 earthquake, which struck Northern Pakistan and Kashmir on 8 October 2005, also suggests a similar strike and NE dipping fault plane, which could indicate that the KB fault is continuous over a distance of ~210 km and connects on the west with the Balakot Bagh fault. However, the geomorphic and the structural evidences of such a structure are not very apparent on the north-west, which thus suggest that it is not a contiguous structure with the Balakot Bagh fault. Therefore, it is more likely that the KB fault is an independent thrust, a possible ramp on the Main Himalayan Thrust, which has uplifting the SW portion of the KB and drowning everything to the NE (e.g. Madden et al. 2011). Furthermore, it seems very likely that the KB fault could be a right stepping segment of the Balakot Bagh fault, similar to Riasi Thrust, as proposed by Thakur et al. (2010). The earthquake magnitude is measured by estimating the fault rupture parameters (e.g. Wells and Coppersmith in Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:974–1002, 1994). Therefore, the total strike length of the mapped KB fault is ~120 km and by assuming a dip of 29° (Avouac et al. in Earth Planet Sci Lett 249:514–528, 2006) and a down-dip limit of 20 km, a Mw of 7.6 is possible on this fault.     

Convergence of iterative coupling for coupled flow and geomechanics

In this paper, we study solving iteratively the coupling of flow and mechanics. We demonstrate the stability and convergence of two widely used schemes: the undrained split method and the fixed stress split method. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such results have been rigorously obtained and published in the scientific literature. In addition, we propose a new stress split method, with faster convergence rate than known schemes. These results are specially important today due to the interest in hydraulic fracturing (Dean and Schmidt SPE J. 14:707–714, 2009; Ji et al. SPE J. 14:423–430, 2009; Samier and De Gennaro 2007; Settari and Maurits SPE J. 3:219–226, 1998), in oil and gas shale reservoirs.     

The Use of Rock Mass Classification Systems to Estimate the Modulus and Strength of Jointed Rock

Three-dimensional, elastic and elasto-plastic finite element (FE) programs have permitted calculation of the displacements and the factor of safety (FOS) for the excavation for a tower, 132.70 m high (above foundation) on the island of Tenerife. The tower is supported by a 2 m thick reinforced concrete slab on jointed, vesicular and weathered basalt and scoria. The installation of rod extensometers at different depths below the slab has permitted comparison between measured and calculated displacements and the estimation of in situ deformation modulus. The moduli deduced from the simple empirical equations proposed by Hoek et al. (In: NARMS-TAC, 2002) and Gokceoglu et al. (Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 40:701–710, 2003) as a function of GSI, and Nicholson and Bieniawski (Int J Min Geol Eng 8:181–202, 1990) as a function of RMR, provide an acceptable fit with the measured settlements in this type of rock. Good correlation is also obtained with the empirical equation presented by Verman et al. (Rock Mech Rock Eng 30(3):121–127, 1997) that incorporates the influence of confining stress in the deformation modulus. The FOS obtained from different correlations with geomechanical classifications is within a relatively narrow range. These results increase our confidence in the use of classification schemes to estimate the deformation and stability in jointed rock.     

Oxygen fugacity control in piston-cylinder experiments: a re-evaluation

Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) investigated a double capsule assembly for use in piston-cylinder experiments that would allow hydrous, high-temperature, and high-pressure experiments to be conducted under controlled oxygen fugacity conditions. Using a platinum outer capsule containing a metal oxide oxygen buffer (Ni–NiO or Co–CoO) and H₂O, with an inner gold–palladium capsule containing hydrous melt, this study was able to compare the oxygen fugacity imposed by the outer capsule oxygen buffer with an oxygen fugacity estimated by the AuPdFe ternary system calibrated by Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010). H₂O loss or gain, as well as iron loss to the capsule walls and carbon contamination, is often observed in piston-cylinder experiments and often go unexplained. Only a few have attempted to actually quantify various aspects of these changes (Brooker et al. in Am Miner 83(9–10):985–994, 1998; Truckenbrodt and Johannes in Am Miner 84:1333–1335, 1999). It was one of the goals of Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) to address these issues by using and testing the AuPdFe solution model of Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010), as well as to constrain the oxygen fugacity of the inner capsule. The oxygen fugacities of the analyzed melts were assumed to be equal to those of the solid Ni–NiO and Co–CoO buffers, which is incorrect since the melts are all undersaturated in H₂O and the oxygen fugacities should therefore be lower than that of the buffer by 2 log $a_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}}$ .     

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study

The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the methodologies being developed in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters. Existing vulnerability literature shows that two methods have been used in developing social vulnerability indexes: (1) a deductive approach based on a theoretical understanding of relationships and (2) an inductive approach based on statistical relationships (Adger et al. in New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, 2004). Two techniques were also utilized in aggregating social vulnerability indicators: (1) a deductive approach using standardization techniques such as z scores or linear scaling (Wu et al. in Clim Res 22:255?C270, 2002; Chakraborty et al. in Nat Hazards Rev 6(1):23?C33, 2005) and (2) an inductive approach using data-reduction techniques such as factor analysis (Clark et al. in Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 3(1):59?C82, 1998; Cutter et al. Soc Sci Quart 84(2):242?C261, 2003). This study empirically compares deductive and inductive index development and indicator aggregation methods in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The aggregated social vulnerability index is used to examine a relationship with disaster losses in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The results show that coastal counties with more vulnerability in terms of social achieved status are positively associated with disaster damages, while variations in the development of the index using deductive and inductive measurement approaches produce different outcomes.     

Discussion of “The Bushveld Complex,South Africa: formation of platinum–palladium,chrome- and vanadium-rich layers via hydrodynamic sorting of a mobilized cumulate slurry in a large,relatively slowly cooling,subsiding magma chamber” by Maier et al. (2013) Miner Deposita 48:1–56

We believe the hypothesis presented by Maier et al. (Miner Deposita 48:1–56, 2012) for the formation of the various ore bodies in the Bushveld Complex to be overly simplistic, and we raise concerns that some of our work, used in support of this hypothesis, has been misrepresented. The formation of both diverse metalliferous layers (platinum-group element (PGE) reefs and Ti-magnetite layers) and some discordant (pipe) ore deposits has been ascribed by Maier et al. to the single unifying process of hydrodynamic sorting. The problem faced by authors of universal hypotheses for the Bushveld Complex is the sheer size and complexity of the intrusion. We disagree with many aspects of the overall Maier et al. model and have also identified several minor errors on maps and photographs, although some of these do not have a material effect on the model. The nature and origin of the layering is, however, too complex a topic to deal with in the context of this commentary, and we restrict ourselves to noting that our preferred hypothesis, namely the incremental buildup of layering from numerous episodes of replenishment, by different magma lineages, is consistent with field relationships. Our hypothesis for the origin of the ultramafic-hosted PGE-rich reefs, i.e., lateral mixing, is applicable to economically mineralized reefs (Mitchell and Scoon, Econ Geol 102:971–1009, 2007) and poorly mineralized layers such as the Pseudoreef harzburgite (Scoon and De Klerk, Canad Mineral 25:51–77, 1987) and the chromitite layers below the UG2 (Scoon and Teigler, Econ Geol 89:1094–1121, 1994).     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Tripura and Mizoram states

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in North East India is presented in this paper to evaluate the ground motion at bedrock level. Analyses were performed considering the available earthquake catalogs collected from different sources since 1731–2010 within a distance of 500 km from the political boundaries of the states. Earthquake data were declustered to remove the foreshocks and aftershocks in time and space window and then statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness. Based on seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major seismogenic zones and subsequently seismicity parameters (a and b) were calculated using Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship. Faults data were extracted from SEISAT (Seismotectonic atlas of India, Geological Survey of India, New Delhi, 2000) published by Geological Survey of India and also from satellite images. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° (approximately 5 km × 5 km), and the hazard parameters (rock level peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations) were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 500 km. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for Tripura and Mizoram states using the predictive ground motion equations given by Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) and Gupta (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30:368–377, 2010) for subduction belt. Attenuation relations were validated with the observed PGA values. Results are presented in the form of hazard curve, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and uniform hazard spectra for Agartala and Aizawl city (respective capital cities of Tripura and Mizoram states). Spatial variation of PGA at bedrock level with 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been presented in the paper.     

Chromite alteration processes within Vourinos ophiolite

The renewed interest in chromite ore deposits is directly related to the increase in Cr price ruled by international market trends. Chromite, an accessory mineral in peridotites, is considered to be a petrogenetic indicator because its composition reflects the degree of partial melting that the mantle experienced while producing the chromium spinel-bearing rock (Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993). However, the understanding of chromite alteration and metamorphic modification is still controversial (e.g. Evans and Frost in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 39:959–972, 1975; Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993; Oze et al. in Am J Sci 304:67–101, 2004). Metamorphic alteration leads to major changes in chromite chemistry and to the growth of secondary phases such as ferritchromite and chlorite. In this study, we investigate the Vourinos complex chromitites (from the mines of Rizo, Aetoraches, Xerolivado and Potamia) with respect to textural and chemical analyses in order to highlight the most important trend of alteration related to chromite transformation. The present study has been partially funded by the Aliakmon project in collaboration between the Public Power Corporation of Greece and Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration of Kozani.     

Impedance Functions of Slab Foundations with Rigid Piles

The earthquake resistant design of structures depends upon the soil-structure interaction during seismic excitation. The dynamic behavior of surface foundations and deep foundations has been investigated by several authors (Gazetas in Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 2(1):2–42, 1983; Pecker in Dynamique des sols. Presses de l’Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Paris, 1984; Sieffert and Cevaer in Manuel des fonctions d’impédance. Ouest-Editions, Nantes, 1992, etc.) but the dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced soils has not been sufficiently studied yet. The design of pile-reinforced soils comprises the design of the rigid piles and the design of the earth-platform. The foundation system studied in this article consists of an earth-platform over a soft ground reinforced by deep piles. In order to understand the dynamic behavior of a rigid pile, a series of dynamic tests is conducted on an experimental site. The vertical and horizontal impedances of the slab foundation are obtained with and without rigid piles. The numerical models are developed to interpret these dynamic tests. The numerical and experimental impedance functions are compared in both the vertical and the horizontal directions. A sensitivity analysis on the influence of the physical and geometrical properties of rigid piles on the impedance functions is presented.     

Assessment of Liquefaction Potential of Guwahati City: A Case Study

The liquefaction potential of saturated cohesionless deposits in Guwahati city, Assam, was evaluated. The critical cyclic stress ratio required to cause liquefaction and the cyclic stress ratio induced by an earthquake were obtained using the simplified empirical method developed by Seed and Idriss (J soil Mech Found Eng ASCE 97(SM9):1249–1273, 1971, Ground motions and soil liquefaction during earthquakes. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, 1982) and Seed et al. (J Geotech Eng ASCE 109(3):458–483, 1983, J Geotech Eng ASCE 111(12):1425–1445, 1985) and the Idriss and Boulanger (2004) method. Critical cyclic stress ratio was based on the empirical relationship between standard penetration resistance and cyclic stress ratio. The liquefaction potential was evaluated by determining factor of safety against liquefaction with depth for areas in the city. A soil database from 200 boreholes covering an area of 262 km² was used for the purpose. A design peak ground acceleration of 0.36 g was used since Guwahati falls in zone V according to the seismic zoning map of India. The results show that 48 sites in Guwahati are vulnerable to liquefaction according to the Seed and Idriss method and 49 sites are vulnerable to liquefaction according to the Idriss and Boulanger method. Results are presented as maps showing zones of levels of risk of liquefaction.     

Melting phase relations of a mica–clinopyroxenite from the Milk River area, southern Alberta, Canada

Melting experiments were conducted on a mica–clinopyroxenite xenolith brought up in a minette dyke in southern Alberta, Canada, near Milk River. Both the minettes and mica–clinopyroxenite xenoliths were studied by Buhlmann et al. (Can J Earth Sci 37:1629–1650, 2000), who hypothesized that the minettes formed by partial melting of a mantle source containing clinopyroxene + phlogopite ± olivine, at pressures ≥1.7 GPa. In liquidus experiments performed on the most primitive minette in our previous study (Funk and Luth in Contrib Mineral Petrol 164:999–1009, 2012), we found a multiple saturation point where olivine and orthopyroxene coexisted with liquid at 1.77 GPa and 1,350 °C. We argued that the minette originally formed by partial melting of clinopyroxene + phlogopite, but had re-equilibrated with a harzburgite during ascent. In the current study, we wanted to test both the source region hypothesis of Buhlmann et al. and our re-equilibration hypothesis by studying the near-solidus phase equilibria of a mica + clinopyroxene assemblage. We found the solidus for our xenolith has a steep slope in P–T space and lies at temperatures above those of a normal cratonic geotherm, implying that this mica–clinopyroxenite is stable in the cratonic mantle. Melting could occur at greater depths, where the solidus is extrapolated to cross the geotherm or must be induced either by raising the temperatures of the surrounding rocks or by introducing hydrous fluids into the source. Our melts are in equilibrium with clinopyroxene and olivine. The compositions of the liquids derived from melting this xenolith are similar to madupitic lamproites from the Leucite Hills, Wyoming, studied by Carmichael (Contrib Mineral Petrol 15:24–66, 1967) and Barton and Hamilton (Contrib Mineral Petrol 66:41–49, 1978; Contrib Mineral Petrol 69:133–142, 1979). Barton and Hamilton (Contrib Mineral Petrol 69:133–142, 1979) proposed that the madupitic lamproites may have come from a source containing mica and pyroxene. This study supports their hypothesis. The composition of the most primitive minette from southern Alberta lies between our experimental melt and a population of representative mantle orthopyroxenes. We conclude from our study that the Milk River minettes were likely derived from a source containing phlogopite, clinopyroxene and trace amounts of apatite, which formed olivine upon melting. During ascent, the melts changed composition by reacting with orthopyroxene.     

Geology and geochemistry of Tertiary basalt in south Wadi Hodein area, South Eastern Desert, Egypt

Tertiary basalt is widespread in the area south of Wadi Hodein, south Eastern Desert, Egypt. It is the youngest unit in the basement rocks of the Central Eastern Desert classification of El Shazly (Proc 22nd Intl Geol Congr, New Delhi 10:88–101, 1964) and El Ramly (Ann Geol Surv Egypt II:1–17, 1972), traversed all the previous succession of the basement rocks as well as the Nubia Sandstone of Cretaceous age, forming sheets, small hills, ridges, and dikes. This Tertiary basalt is strongly associated with the opening of the Red Sea. Geologic, petrographic, and petrochemical studies as well as microprobe and X-ray analyses were performed on samples from Wadi Hodein Tertiary basalt. Field and petrographic studies classified the Tertiary basalt in south Wadi Hodein into porphyritic olivine basalt, plagiophyric basalt, and doleritic basalt. Opaque minerals (magnetite and ilmenite) constitute 6–7.5% of this basalt. Petrochemical studies and microprobe analyses reveal that they are low-TiO₂ basalt with low uranium and thorium contents, classified as being basaltic andesite to andesite, originated from calc-alkaline magma, and developed in within-plate tectonic environment. Scanning electron microscopy shows that magnetite and ilmenite are the prevalent opaque minerals in this Tertiary basalt. Field radiometric measurements of the Tertiary basalt in south Wadi Hodein reveals low uranium and thorium contents. Uranium contents range from 0.5 to 0.9 ppm, while thorium contents range from 1.2 to 3.2 ppm. Fractional crystallization and mass balance modeling indicate that the most-silica low-TiO₂ Tertiary basalt in south Wadi Hodein can be derived from the relatively less-silica low-TiO₂ Tertiary basalt of south Quseir and Gabal Qatrani through fractional crystallization of plagioclase, olivine, augite, and titanomagnetite oxides. Tertiary basalts in south Wadi Hodein and south Quseir have nearly the same age, 25 Ma (Sherif, The Fifth International Conference on the Geology of Africa, 2007), 24 Ma (Meneisy and Abdel Aal, Ain Shams Sci Bull 25(24B): 163–176, 1984), and 27 Ma (El Shazly et al., Egypt J Geol 1975), respectively. Finally, the fractionation modeling and geochemical characteristics of these basalts suggested their origination from one basaltic magma emplaced in late Oligocene.     

Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain

This study presents the results of numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in the Bay of Lhok Nga (northwestern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia) integrating sediment erosion and deposition. We investigate the transport of sediment both by suspension and by bedload under different scenarii of long breaking dispersive waves through a series of numerical experiments. The earthquake source model used by Koshimura et al. (Coast Eng J 51:243–273, 2008) with a 25-m dislocation better reproduces the wave travel time, flow depth and inundation area than the other models tested. The model reproduces realistically the pronounced coastal retreat in the northern part of Lhok Nga Bay (retreat ranging between 50 and 150 m), where Paris et al. (Geomorphology 104:59–72, 2009) estimated a mean retreat of 80 m. There is also a good agreement between the simulated area of coastal retreat (195,400 m²) and the field observations (203,200 m²). The simulation may underestimate the volume of tsunami deposits (611,700 m³ vs. 500,000–1,000,000 m³ estimated by Paris et al. (2009). The model fully reproduces the observed thickness of tsunami deposits when considering both bedload and suspension, even if bedload transport dominates. Limitations are due to micro-scale topographic, anthropic features (which are not always represented by the DEM) and the amount of debris which may influence flow dynamics and sediment transport.     

Seismic hazard analysis of Mersin Province,Turkey using probabilistic and statistical methods

Nearly 108-km lengths of Mersin shores are composed of natural beaches. The region is located between major tourist centers. In the future, this region is thought to be built with a great number of tourist facilities. Turkey’s largest seaport, Ata? refinery (Mersin International Port) is located in Mersin. Recently, Mersin is becoming of great importance to Turkey as the latter plans to construct its second nuclear power plant in the region. Therefore, as nuclear power plants are built to withstand environmental hazards, it is very important to analyze the seismic risk of the areas where the nuclear power plant will be constructed. The region is located between the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Center Anatolian Fault Zone. Based on the Turkey Earthquake Regions Map, Mersin is divided into second-, third-, and fourth-degree earthquake regions. In this study, we sampled earthquakes of magnitude of 4.0 or greater between 01 Jan 1900 and 31 Dec 2010 in the area; seismic hazard of Mersin province was estimated with probabilistic and statistical methods. The study area was selected as the coordinates between 36.03° and 37.42° North and 32.57° and 35.16° East. On the study area, different scaled magnitude values in the last 110 years converted to a common scale (Mw) and earthquake catalog was re-compiled and also seismic sources that may affect the area was determined. In this study, the seismic hazards of the region were obtained using the methods of probability and statistics. This study used three different attenuation relationships. Using the attenuation relationships suggested by Boore et al. (Seismol Res Lett 68(1):128–153, 1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (Earthquake Spectra 20:1111–1138, 2004), the largest ground acceleration which corresponds to a recurrence period of 475 years was found as 0.08–0.09 g and Akkar and Ça?nan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100 6:2978–2995, 2010), 0.04 g for bedrock at the central district. When computing for seismic hazard curves, Mut district appears to have a greater seismic hazard compared with other districts. Moreover, according to the attenuation relationships, seismic hazard curves corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years were obtained for the Mersin Central, Mut, Erdemli, Çaml?yayla, and Tarsus districts.     

Flow rule in a high-cycle accumulation model backed by cyclic test data of 22 sands

The flow rule used in the high-cycle accumulation (HCA) model proposed by Niemunis et al. (Comput Geotech 32: 245, 2005) is examined on the basis of the data from approximately 350 drained long-term cyclic triaxial tests (N = 10⁵ cycles) performed on 22 different grain-size distribution curves of a clean quartz sand. In accordance with (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006), for all tested materials, the “high-cyclic flow rule (HCFR)”, i.e., the ratio of the volumetric and deviatoric strain accumulation rates \(\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{v}}^{{\rm acc}}/\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{q}}^{{\rm acc}}\) , was found dependent primarily on the average stress ratio η ^av = q ^av/p ^av and independent of amplitude, soil density and average mean pressure. The experimental HCFR can be fairly well approximated by the flow rule of the modified Cam-clay (MCC) model. Instead of the critical friction angle \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) which enters the flow rule for monotonic loading, the HCA model uses the MCC flow rule expression with a slightly different parameter \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) . It should be determined from cyclic tests. \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) are of similar magnitude but not always identical, because they are calibrated from different types of tests. For a simplified calibration in the absence of cyclic test data, \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) may be estimated from the angle of repose \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) determined from a pluviated cone of sand (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006). However, the paper demonstrates that the MCC flow rule with \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) does not fit well the experimentally observed HCFR in the case of coarse or well-graded sands. For an improved simplified calibration procedure, correlations between \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and parameters of the grain-size distribution curve (d ₅₀,   C _u) have been developed on the basis of the present data set. The approximation of the experimental HCFR by the generalized flow rule equations proposed in (Wichtmann et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 136: 728, 2010), considering anisotropy, is also discussed in the paper.