A distributed water–heat coupled model for mountainous watershed of an inland river basin in Northwest China (II) using meteorological and hydrological data

A distributed water–heat coupled model (DWHC) is calibrated by using daily precipitation data from 26 hydrological and meteorological stations: daily averaged air temperature data from the 11 stations and daily pan evaporation data (E601) from the 15 stations in 2000. Six tests by using different spatial interpolation methods to calculate the above daily meteorological data in each 1 km × 1 km grid, are designed to simulate the mean daily runoff generated from the research Heihe mountainous watershed in 2000. Due to spatial sparseness and asymmetry of the hydrological and meteorological stations, the results of the six tests have little differences. The interpolation method in 3-D mode considering altitude is not better than those taking no account of altitude, nor are the model results when the daily meteorological data at the two stations far from the research watershed are complemented. At last, a nearest neighbor interpolation method in 2-D mode is used to calibrate the DWHC model, in which the revised Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE, balance error B, determinate coefficient R ², root mean square error RMSE and average absolute error MAE is about 0.61, 0.08%, 0.73, 25.0 and 15.8 m³s⁻¹, respectively. However, by using the daily data in 1999 to validate the model, the NSE, B, R ², RMSE and MAE are, respectively, 0.63, −2.98%, 0.77, 34.9 and 20.3 m³s⁻¹. The reason that the model result is not favorable is mainly because of the lack of detailed soil information, meteorological data and vegetation data; even worse, the basic equations for runoff generation processes are mainly derived from the research results in other regions and meanwhile, its flow concentration method should be improved too. The water balance of the research watershed in 2000 is also discussed in this paper. Though the runoff simulation results are not favorable, the estimated evapotranspiration and runoff components are in accordance with the usual knowledge qualitatively, parts of which meet with the field measurements. According to the model results, the runoff is mainly generated from the land surfaces and shallow soil layers in this cold mountainous watershed. The alpine meadow has evident water conservation function based on the model results, field investigation and field observation results. The DWHC model also reproduces the formation processes of the thick-layered ground ice to some extent, though it is suppositional due to lack of detailed soil, vegetation and meteorological information.     

华南地区崩岗侵蚀灾害及其防治

根据区域调查和定位研究资料,介绍了华南地区崩岗侵蚀及其灾害特点,概述了崩岗的形成、发育规律及其演变过程,分析了崩岗侵蚀及其灾害的影响因素。提出进行崩岗灾害防治时,应在水土保持传统方法基础上,整合水文地质学和工程地质学及其它相关学科理论,应用GIS技术对崩岗侵蚀进行科学监测和管理,为坡地利用和环境整治以及灾害防治提供依据。     

Silicate-melt inclusions in magmatic rocks: applications to petrology

Silicate-melt inclusions in igneous rocks provide important information on the composition and evolution of magmatic systems. Such inclusions represent accidentally trapped silicate melt (±immiscible H₂O and/or CO₂ fluids) that allow one to follow the evolution of magmas through snapshots, corresponding to specific evolution steps. This information is available on condition that they remained isolated from the enclosing magma after their entrapment. The following steps of investigation are discussed: (a) detailed petrographic studies to characterise silicate-melt inclusion primary characters and posttrapping evolution, including melt crystallisation; (b) high temperature studies to rehomogenise the inclusion content and select chemically representative inclusions: chemical compositions should be compared to relevant phase diagrams.

Silicate-melt inclusion studies allow us to concentrate on specific topics; inclusion studies in early crystallising phases allow the characterisation of primary magmas, while in more differentiated rocks, they unravel the subsequent chemical evolution. The distribution of volatile species (i.e., H₂O, CO₂, S, Cl) in inclusion glass can provide information on the degassing processes and on recycling of subducted material. In intrusive rocks, silicate melt inclusions may preserve direct evidence of magmatic stage evolution (e.g., immiscibility phenomena). Melt inclusions in mantle xenoliths indicate that high-silica melts can coexist with mantle peridotites and give information on the presence of carbonate melt within the upper mantle. Thus, combining silicate-melt inclusion data with conventional petrological and geochemical information and experimental petrology can increase our ability to model magmatic processes.     

我国大气降水中稳定同位素研究进展

大气降水中稳定同位素的比率与降水产生过程中的气象条件密切相关,可以利用其时空分布特征来反演大气过程,示踪水汽来源,反映天气气候的区域性特征.对影响我国大气降水中稳定同位素组成与分布进行了总结,探讨了影响降水中氢氧同位素的因素及空间变化特征,并分别介绍了我国青藏高原区、西北干旱区和东部季风区等地区近年来降水中稳定同位素的...     

小波变换在河西地区水文和气候周期变化分析中的应用

小波时—频分析由于其局部优化性质而优于傅立叶分析。应用 Meyer小波 ,对甘肃河西地区近 50 a来年径流量、年降水量和年平均气温做周期分析 ,发现河西地区水文气象序列的变化周期基本在 35a、2 2 a、1 1 a、5～ 6a和 2～ 3a左右的时间尺度上浮动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动周期或海—气相互作用的周期 ,说明河西地区水文、气象序列的周期变化受天体运动变化的影响。天体运动直接影响降水和气温的周期变化 ,进而在一定的下垫面条件下 ,影响径流的周期变化。     

基于PSO-BP神经网络的基坑周边地面沉降预测方法研究

基坑工程施工过程中的周边地面沉降直接关系到周围建筑物的安全,本文根据上海前滩地区某基坑工程的历史监测数据、施工工况和周边地层参数等多源数据对基坑周边地面沉降进行监测和预测。以PSO-BP神经网络为基础,通过将基于时序和基于沉降影响因素的网络模型对比发现：二者预测结果误差较小且基于时序的神经网络预测精度更高,说明利用PSO-BP神经网络能够很好地对基坑周边地面沉降进行分析与预测。为了综合考虑时间效应和空间效应的影响,在基于沉降影响因素的预测模型的基础上加入历史监测数据作为模型输入层进行优化,结果表明：优化后的PSO-BP神经网络模型具有更小的相对误差范围和更高的预测精度,在基坑周边地面沉降预测中有很好的应用前景。     

内陆河高寒山区流域分布式水热耦合模型（Ⅱ）：地面资料驱动结果

以黑河出山日平均流量作为对比，利用26个降水站点、11个气温站点和14个潜在蒸发站点2000年日资料，模型设计了6套气象因子空间分布方案，进行数值模拟试验，结果表明，在黑河流域现有观测站点的情况下，利用各种空间插值方法所得结果基本相当，考虑地面高程的三维插值与不考虑地面高程的二维插值结果相差不大，补充距离研究区较远的站点观测资料，模型结果反而变差。最终模型采用基于二维算法的最近距离法（nearest），利用2000年资料校正模型，计算与实测黑河日出山平均流量序列的效率系数为0.6101，平衡误差为0.0808％。以1999年资料验证模型，效率系数和平衡误差分别为0.6270和-2.9824％。模型基于水热连续方程模拟了黑河山区流域水热交换和耦合过程，探讨了流域的水量平衡，分析了水量平衡因子的时空分布，其模拟结果表明，内陆河高寒山区流域主要为浅表产流，高山草甸具有拦蓄降水和水源涵养作用，并反映了高山地区浅表土壤地下厚层冰的聚集过程。各种模型结果与本区野外实际调查结果基本一致，也符合当前对寒区流域水文循环过程的定性认识。     

A Review of the Methods and Controls of Soil Weathering Rates

The study of soil weathering processes College of Resources and Environment, rates and the associated influencing factors is crucial for understanding of the feedbacks between soil and environment, which will provide a basis for predicting soil behavior and evolution trend in the ecosystem under natural and anthropogenic forcings. This is also important for the effective management of soil resources. This article reviewed the methods for measuring soil weathering rates (including simulating leaching experiment, model calculation, isotope technique, element depletion and geochemical mass balance) and the influencing factors (including climate, organism, parent material, relief, time and human activities). In view of the serious degradation of soil resources, we proposed the challenge and opportunity of the research of soil weathering. The future study should focus on the critical processes, rates and the associated environmental thresholds of soil weathering under varying natural conditions and intensive human perturbations, including the establishment of the quantitative relationship between the weathering rates calculated by different methods, the analysis and interpretation of synergistic effects among multiple influencing factors, and the modeling and prediction of changing tendency of weathering rates under the impacts of both climatic changes and human activities, in order to guide the sustainable management of soil resource and mitigation of global change.     

Tidal and Meteorological Forcing of Suspended Sediment Flux in a Muddy Mesotidal Estuary

Although the supply and fate of suspended sediment is of fundamental importance to the functioning and morphological evolution of muddy estuaries, reliable sediment budgets have been established in only a few cases. Especially for smaller estuaries, inadequate bathymetric surveys and a lack of intertidal sedimentation data often preclude estimation of the sediment budget from morphological change, while instrument-derived residual fluxes typically lie well within the errors associated with measurement of much larger gross tidal transports. Given suitably long-term records of continuously monitored suspended sediment concentration (SSC), however, analysis of the major scales of variation in sediment transport and their relation to hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing permits qualitative testing of hypotheses suggested by directly measured residual fluxes. This paper analyzes data from a 1-year acoustic Doppler profiler deployment in the Blyth estuary, a muddy mesotidal barrier-enclosed system on the UK east coast. Flux calculations indicate a small sediment import equivalent to just 1.5% of the gross flood tide transport. Little confidence can be assigned to either the magnitude or direction of such a small residual when considered in isolation. However, the inference that the sediment regime is finely balanced is qualitatively supported by the close similarity between flood-tide and ebb-tide SSC values. Singular spectrum analysis of the SSC time series shows the expectedly large contributions to the variance in SSC at intratidal and subtidal (semimonthly and monthly) scales but also picks out intermittent variability that is initially attributed to a combination of non-tidal surge and wind stress forcing. Closer examination of the data through cross-correlograms and event-scale analysis indicates that local meteorological forcing is the major factor. Acting through the resuspension of intertidal mudflat sediments at times of strong westerlies, meteorological forcing is directly implicated in episodic sediment export from the estuary. Thresholding of tide-averaged fluxes using a range of critical wind stress values further indicates that ‘tide-dominated’ (i.e., low wind stress) and ‘wave-dominated’ (high wind stress) conditions are associated with sediment import and export. Sediment balance is potentially sensitive to the frequency of high wind stress events, since the associated sediment exports are several times larger than the average import under calm conditions. Intermittent meteorological forcing may thus exert an important control on the sedimentary balance of otherwise tidally dominated muddy estuarine systems, and the role of wind climate should not be overlooked in studies of estuary response to environmental change.     

基于相空间重构和小波分析-粒子群向量机的滑坡地下水位预测

预测滑坡地下水位的动态演变过程对滑坡稳定性分析具有重要意义, 三峡库区库岸滑坡地下水位时间序列受多种因素影响, 呈现出高度非线性非平稳的特征.为对其进行预测, 提出一种基于相空间重构的小波分析-粒子群优化支持向量机(wavelet analysis-support vector machine, 简称WA-PSVM)模型.该模型引入小波变换法对地下水位序列进行时频分解, 将非平稳的地下水位序列转变为多个不同分辨率尺度下的较平稳的地下水位子序列; 然后重构各子序列的相空间, 再利用PSVM(全称support vector machine)模型对地下水位各子序列进行预测, 最后将各子序列预测值相加得到最终预测结果.以三峡库区三舟溪滑坡前缘STK-1水文孔日平均地下水位序列为例, 首先分析滑坡前缘地下水位变化的影响因素, 再将WA-PSVM模型应用于地下水位预测, 并与单独PSVM模型和小波分析-BP网络模型(wavelet analysis-back propagation, 简称WA-BP)作对比.结果表明: 滑坡前缘地下水位受降雨和库水位影响较大, 利用WA-PSVM模型对STK-1水文孔地下水位进行预测的均方根误差为0.073m、拟合优度为0.966, WA-PSVM模型预测精度高于单独PSVM模型和WA-BP模型.WA-PSVM模型解决了地下水位序列非线性非平稳的问题, 在不考虑影响因素的情况下能获得满意的预测效果, 具有较高的建模效率和较强的实用性.      

Evolution of depleted mantle: The lead perspective

Isotopic data have established that, compared to estimated bulk earth abundances, the sources of oceanic basaltic lavas have been depleted in large ion lithophile elements for at least several billions of years. Various data on the Tertiary-Mesozoic Gorgona komatiite and Cretaceous Oka carbonatite show that those rocks also sample depleted mantle sources. This information is used by analogy to compare Pb isotopic data from 2.6 billion year old komatiite and carbonatite from the Suomussalmi belt of eastern Finland and Munro Township, Ontario that are with associated granitic rocks and ores that should contain marked crustal components. Within experimental error no differences are detected in the isotopic composition of initial Pb in either of the rock suites. These observations agree closely with Sr and Nd data from other laboratories showing that depleted mantle could not have originated in those areas more than a few tenths of billions of years before the rocks were emplaced. On a world-wide basis the Pb isotope data are consistent with production of depleted mantle by continuous differentiation processes acting over approximately the past 3 billion years. The data show that Pb evolution is more complex than the simpler models derived from the Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd systems. The nature of the complexity is still poorly understood.     

基于GIS的中国西南地区覆冰气象条件评估

采用中国西南地区(95°~110° E、 25°~35° N) 96个常规气象观测站1961年1月1日至2009年12月31日逐日气象要素资料提取覆冰相关要素, 利用1 km×1 km DEM资料通过GIS技术建立经度、 纬度、 海拔高度3个宏观地形因子以及坡度、 坡向和开放度3个微观地形因子的数据库, 通过三维二次趋势面的逐步回归方法, 在ArcMap/Info中进行与覆冰有关的气象要素栅格空间化, 在此基础上按照轻、 中、 重三个级别建立了各级覆冰模型并划分了覆冰风险分布. 结果表明: 满足覆冰条件日数序列在2000年以来呈显著上升趋势, 覆冰灾害发生的可能性增大. 一般来说, 宏观地形因子对气象要素的分布影响较大, 相对湿度模型和日照时数模型通过微观地形因子订正后, 精度有所提高. 通过模型得到的西南地区覆冰风险分布图能够较为精确的模拟出西南地区覆冰的风险分布, 与实际情况相符.     

Simultaneous meteorological tsunamis and storm surges at Buenos Aires coast,southeastern South America

Meteorological tsunamis are frequently observed in different tide stations at the southeastern coast of South America. They are associated with the occurrence of atmospheric gravity waves during the passages of cold fronts over the Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. On the other hand, storm surges are also frequent in the region, and they are associated with strong and persistent southerlies, which are also frequent during cold front passages. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in coastal erosion and in the statistics of storm surge trends is discussed in this paper. For this study, fifteen meteorological tsunamis (with maximum wave heights higher than 0.20 m), seven of them simultaneous to the occurrence of storm surge events (with extreme levels higher than |±0.60 m|), are selected from April 2010 to January 2013. The impact of meteorological tsunamis in the storm erosion potential index (SEPI) is evaluated. Not significant differences are obtained between SEPI calculated with and without filtering the meteorological tsunami signal from the storm surge data series. Moreover, several experiments are carried out computing SEPI from synthetic sea level data series, but very low changes (lower than 4 %) are also obtained. It is concluded that the presence of moderate meteorological tsunamis on sea level records would not enhance this index at the Buenos Aires Province coast. On the other hand, taking into account that meteorological tsunamis can reach up the 20–30 % of the storm surge height, it was concluded that the statistics of storm surge trends (and their uncertainties) should be revised for Mar del Plata data series.     

A probabilistic model for the prediction of meteorological droughts in Venezuela

Droughts occur when rainfalls diminish or cease for several days, months or years. In the last five years several meteorological droughts have occurred in Venezuela, impacting negatively water supply, hydro-power and agriculture sectors. In order to provide institutions with tools to manage the water resources, a probabilistic model has been developed and validated to predict in advance the occurrence of meteorological droughts in the country using monthly series of 632 rainfall stations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to identify dry events of each rainfall series. A principal component analysis associated to a geographic information system was used to define geographically continuous homogeneous sub-regions (HS) for the values of SPI. For each HS a representative station was selected (reference station, RS). A lagged correlation analysis was applied to the SPI series of the RS and the corresponding series of anomaly indices of 10 macroclimatic variables (MV). The four MV with higher correlation in each RS were organized into three levels (-1, 0 and +1), using the quartiles Q₂ and Q₄ as values of truncation. The SPI series are expressed in four ranges: non-dry, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The conditional probability of occurrence of the four ranges of SPI was determined in every combination that can occur in the four VM best correlated. The resulting model in each RS was validated using the SPI series from 20 meteorological stations operated by the Servicio de Meteorología de la Fuerza Aérea Venezolana (Meteorological Service of the Venezuelan Air Force) which were not used in the development of the models. Results indicate that models detected the occurrence of ES with an accuracy ranging from 85.19 to 100%; the success is directly proportional to the length of records used in the development of the model. This methodology could be applied in any country that has long, continuous and homogeneous rainfall series.     

英峰岭红土-火山岩序列古地磁年代初步结果

夏商周断代工程的总目标是制订有科学依据的年表。研究途径主要有两条：1）根据古代天象记录，通过现代天文计算推定其年代；2）根据考古提供的系列样品作^14c年龄测定，转换成误差较小的、有考古内涵的历法年。天文推算可以得出年龄定点，^14C测年可以覆盖全面，建立起夏商周的年龄框架。两者结果互证，再同历史文献、考古研究等多学科综合研究，制订出夏商周三代年表。同过去相比，这应当是最有科学依据的。     

Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought forecasting in southeastern part of East Azerbaijan province, Iran. The Wavelet-ANN and ANFIS models were first trained using the observed data recorded from 1952 to 1992 and then used to predict meteorological drought over the test period extending from 1992 to 2011. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of root mean squared error coefficient of determination (R ²) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. In this study, more than 1,000 model structures including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Wavelet-ANN models were tested in order to assess their ability to forecast the meteorological drought for one, two, and three time steps (6 months) ahead. It was demonstrated that wavelet transform can improve meteorological drought modeling. It was also shown that ANFIS models provided more accurate predictions than ANN models. This study confirmed that the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer could not be always determined using specific formulas; hence, it should be determined using a trial-and-error method. Also, decomposition level in wavelet transform should be delineated according to the periodicity and seasonality of data series. The order of models with regard to their accuracy is as following: Wavelet-ANFIS, Wavelet-ANN, ANFIS, and ANN, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been published that explores coupling wavelet analysis with ANFIS for meteorological drought and no research has tested the efficiency of these models to forecast the meteorological drought in different time scales as of yet.     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

川藏交通廊道林波段冰川泥石流发育动态演化分析及监测预警方案

川藏交通廊道沿线山高谷深,地层岩性多变,新构造运动活跃,气候恶劣复杂,导致滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、冰湖溃决洪水等灾害极其发育,对铁路施工及运营带来严重影响.林芝-波密段就是典型地质灾害高发区域,常年受到冰川泥石流的影响,是川藏交通廊道重大灾害防治的难点区段.虽然目前在单沟尺度上对冰川泥石流的形成条件、影响因素、物源性质取得了一定的认识,但对于川藏交通廊道沿线不同类型的冰川泥石流诱发因素、区域发展演化规律及灾变指标的研究还较为初步,尚未构建完善的监测预警体系.借助多源长时序遥感影像、气象监测数据,结合野外实地验证和历史数据分析发现:川藏交通廊道周边区域冰川泥石流沟谷共99条,主要分布于恰青冰川-易贡乡、加拉贝垒-南迦巴瓦峰和古乡沟-嘎隆寺冰川一带;过去40年冰川经历了复杂的流动速度变化,表现为较小高海拔悬冰川活动性增强,大型沟谷冰川活动性减弱;自1973年以来,研究区冰川泥石流呈现频率增高、规模增大的特征.此外,从冰川泥石流发育沟道比降来看,发生高陡地形的滑坡、冰-岩崩诱发的泥石流频率增加.未来,冰川持续退缩,促使冰川源区冰瀑消失,发育更大规模的悬冰川,会增加这类冰川泥石流的风险;冰川泥石流形成及演化过程具有明显的灾变指标,如悬冰川裂隙密度增加、冰川速度增强、冰湖面积快速增加等.因此,基于以上认识,建议针对不同类型的冰川泥石流地建立完善的监测预警指标,并提出了融合卫星、航空遥感平台,气象、水文地面监测平台,地震动监测平台的冰川泥石流“空-天-地”立体监测框架,针对不同类型冰川泥石流进行灾变信息监测与预警判识,为川藏交通廊道安全施工运营提供技术参考.      

成矿理论的预测能力及其改善途径

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